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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, September 09, 2019

Don't Worry About a Recession / Economics / US Economy

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Everyone seems to be wringing their hands about what they fear is an oncoming recession. Indeed, as a sign of the level of the public’s angst, The Economist magazine reports that Google searches related to the word “recession” have surged.

If that wasn’t enough evidence of the hand wringing, the Chairman of President Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, the respected Tomas Philipson, recently indicated that he was worried about the steady negative drumbeat in the press: that a recession might be just around the corner. Philipson put his finger on the problem when he said, “The way the media reports the weather won’t impact whether the sun shines tomorrow. But the way the media reports on our economy weighs on consumer sentiment, which feeds into consumer purchases and investments.”

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Economics

Friday, September 06, 2019

Globalization Hits a Brick Wall Named Trump / Economics / Global Economy

By: Patrick_Watson

Until about 50 years ago, people paid attention to the area where they lived. They read local papers, shopped at local merchants, and socialized at local events.

Technology ended all that. Now we get our news from the internet. We buy imported goods. We converse on social media with friends thousands of miles away.

This “globalization” process changed the world, sometimes for the better but with significant side effects. Hence, today’s dissatisfaction.

Now, technology is swinging the pendulum back. Globalization is going in reverse. And again, the process will hurt some people.

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Economics

Saturday, August 31, 2019

What Do Crashing RV Sales Tell Us About 2020? / Economics / Auto Sector

By: Rodney_Johnson

RV sales are crashing at a year-over-year rate of 20% below sales for the same period last year. 2017 was the peak thus far and 2018 sales were 4% lower. Hence, this year’s crash is making this look like a clear top.

RVs are one of our mid-life-to-retirement sectors for Boomers. Sales used to peak at age 63, but the most recent updates to the Consumer Expenditure Survey show them peaking a bit earlier, at age 59-60. That still makes it a strong growth industry into 2020-2021 for aging Boomers.

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Economics

Friday, August 30, 2019

The Key to a Sustainable Economy Is 5,000 Years Old / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Ellen_Brown

We are again reaching the point in the business cycle known as “peak debt,” when debts have compounded to the point that their cumulative total cannot be paid. Student debt, credit card debt, auto loans, business debt and sovereign debt are all higher than they have ever been. As economist Michael Hudson writes in his provocative 2018 book, “…and forgive them their debts,” debts that can’t be paid won’t be paid. The question, he says, is how they won’t be paid.

Mainstream economic models leave this problem to “the invisible hand of the market,” assuming trends will self-correct over time. But while the market may indeed correct, it does so at the expense of the debtors, who become progressively poorer as the rich become richer. Borrowers go bankrupt and banks foreclose on the collateral, dispossessing the debtors of their homes and their livelihoods. The houses are bought by the rich at distress prices and are rented back at inflated prices to the debtors, who are then forced into wage peonage to survive. When the banks themselves go bankrupt, the government bails them out. Thus the market corrects, but not without government intervention. That intervention just comes at the end of the cycle to rescue the creditors, whose ability to buy politicians gives them the upper hand. According to free-market apologists, this is a natural cycle akin to the weather, which dates all the way back to the birth of modern economics in ancient Greece and Rome.

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Economics

Friday, August 23, 2019

Modern Monetary Theory Could Destroy America / Economics / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

I am back from my 14th annual Maine fishing camp.

The private event at Leen’s Lodge is generally called Camp Kotok in honor of David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors who started these outings many years ago.

CNBC and others began calling it the “Shadow Fed,” but it is really just a meeting of wickedly smart people focused on economics and markets. (I am allowed to attend for comic relief.)

We discussed the world’s problems and the general mood was that many of those problems are beginning to catch up.

Among other topics, there was an open “debate” about Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and US fiscal strategy.

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Economics

Sunday, August 18, 2019

The Nuts and Bolts: Yield Inversion Says Recession is Coming But it May take 24 months / Economics / Recession

By: QUANTO

Consumers continue to power economic growth, as retail sales rose 0.7% in July, after a 0.3% increase in June, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Excluding autos, sales soared 1.0%, after a 0.7% climb in June. Economists polled by IFR Markets expected a 0.3% rise in the headline number and 0.4% excluding autos. Auto sales were down 0.6% in July, after 0.3% growth the prior month.

Preliminary second quarter productivity figures also were positive news for the economy, as non-farm productivity grew a healthy 2.3% on an annualized basis in the second quarter, albeit down from the first quarter’s 3.5% growth, the Labor Department reported. Unit labor costs grew 2.4% in the period, after a revised 5.5% jump in the first quarter, previously reported as a 1.6% decline.

Economists projected a 1.5% gain in productivity and a 1.8% rise in labor costs.

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Economics

Monday, August 05, 2019

FOURTH TURNING ECONOMICS / Economics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

If you feel you’ve recei“In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. The catalyst will unfold according to a basic Crisis dynamic that underlies all of these scenarios: An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction. At home and abroad, these events will reflect the tearing of the civic fabric at points of extreme vulnerability – problem areas where America will have neglected, denied, or delayed needed action.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe

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Economics

Sunday, August 04, 2019

Trade Tariff Economic Damage Spreading in US, China within Target in H2 2019 / Economics / China US Conflict

By: Dan_Steinbock

In the second half of 2019, US economic prospects will soften, despite the Fed rate cut, whereas Chinese growth target is likely to prevail. It’s time to prepare for diminished global economic prospects in 2019-20.

After an important meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), participants said that China seeks to make its fiscal policy more effective and to maintain “reasonably ample” liquidity.

Instead of resorting to a stimulus in the real estate market, the emphasis will be on “proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy.” It is a challenging balancing act, but the right stance in the right time.
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Economics

Sunday, August 04, 2019

Why Trump’s Low-dollar Economic Plan Won’t Work / Economics / US Economy

By: Richard_Mills

The slowdown in the United States, and throughout the world, has led many to speculate that the time has come for an intervention in the US economy. 

Despite a healthy stock market and the economy barreling along at near full employment, persistent negative economic indicators have policymakers twitching for some kind of response. 

On Friday US Gross Domestic Product numbers failed to inspire. American GDP grew just 2.1% in the second quarter, compared to a 3.1% gain in Q1. One of the most important takeaways from the official report card on the economy, was the value of inventories, or goods waiting to be sold. It shrank by $44.3 billion, Marketwatch reported, knocking a full percentage point off GDP. 

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Economics

Monday, July 29, 2019

RIP Global Economic Cooperation, 1944–2019 / Economics / Global Economy

By: Patrick_Watson

By Patrick Watson

Last month, world leaders observed the 75th anniversary of D-Day, when Allied troops stormed the beaches of Normandy, France. It was a critical day in world history.

However, other things happened that year.

As that massive invasion took place, a smaller group quietly planned how to reshape the world economy.

The Second World War was, in part, a result of failure to establish a stable currency system after the first one. That led to tariffs and other trade barriers in the 1930s. Economists and bankers wanted to keep it from happening again, and spent the war years discussing solutions.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

U.S. Recession Watch: The Six-Cycle Forecast / Economics / Economic Theory

By: F_F_Wiley

It’s usually a bad idea to stand too close to something—whether an object, a problem you’d like to solve or any number of other things—which could mean seeing all of the pixels but none of the patterns. That’s why we populate albums, frames and holiday cards with bird’s eye views and sweeping vistas. It’s why every city that aspires to “destination” status advertises this or that Tower, Arch, Needle or Eye.

But if we look from too far away, we run a different risk of missing important information. That’s why we send probes, ships and occasionally scientists into outer space. It’s why we don’t Facetime our doctors, we hop on the examination table and show them exactly what’s bothering us.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Want to See What's Next for the US Economy? Try This. / Economics / US Economy

By: EWI

Don't listen to the naysayers -- there IS a way to forecast the general health of the economy. This method has repeatedly proven itself.

Yes, you can anticipate the likelihood of a recession, even a depression -- or, conversely, when major economic measures -- like jobs -- will be robust.

That surefire way is the performance of the stock market.

That's right, despite the widespread belief that the economy drives the stock market, it's the stock market which leads the economy. Why not the other way around? Because the economy is a slow boat.

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Economics

Sunday, July 14, 2019

Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold / Economics / Recession 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

How likely is a recession in the United States? Predicting a recession is difficult, but one can make some nice money with a good forecast. Consequently, we invite you to read our today’s article, which discusses the most important recessionary models developed by the Fed, and find out what do they imply for the gold market.

How likely is a recession in the United States? Predicting a recession is difficult, but one can make some nice money with a good forecast. So let’s focus on the most important recessionary models developed by the Fed.

The first model is the smoothed recession probabilities for the United States developed by Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger based on the research published in the International Economic Review and Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. The odds are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales.

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Economics

Sunday, July 14, 2019

The Problem with Keynesian Economics / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

In The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, John Maynard Keynes wrote:

“The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.”

I think Lord Keynes himself would appreciate the irony that he has become the defunct economist under whose influence the academic and bureaucratic classes now toil, slaves to what has become as much a religious belief system as an economic theory.

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Economics

Monday, July 08, 2019

Slowing Western economies will force new QE: Trading Setups and Deep analysis / Economics / Global Economy

By: QUANTO

The world is slowing down dramatically. At the same time, the largest economy is hurtling towards an election. Al governments who go to election will try to massage the numbers and pump the stock markets. So while the economy slows, the governmment is buzy pumping markets higher with his tweets.

The slowing down economy can be seen in numerous metrics and we believe central banks will be forced to begin a new round of QE. This time they will need to face up to inflation even as they pump in money.

Key metrics and charts shown below.

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Economics

Friday, July 05, 2019

Modern Monetary Theory – Applications in the 21st Century / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andy_Sutton

Perhaps one of the biggest frauds perpetrated on the citizens of the world in the 20th century was Keynesianism. For those of you who are new to the discourse, Keynesianism was essentially the ramblings of a well-respected (at the time) economist named John Maynard Keynes and it dealt with deficit spending at the level of the federal government. It was a justification for something governments around the world were beginning to do anyway. The point of Keynes’ work was to give this very dangerous and ill-advised practice legitimacy. Sadly, it worked, and 85 years later, the developed nations of the world are mired in debt the likes of which the world has never before seen and may well never see again.

Before we get to the true purpose of this paper: an analysis of MMT, we must lay some foundational work. Please bear with us. If you have been an active reader of our previous articles and research, feel free to proceed directly to the portion where MMT is addressed.

Interestingly enough, the topic of this paper; (another consequence of treating economics as a debating society instead of a science) the foundations of modern monetary theory (hereafter MMT) actually originated long before Keynes wrote his seminal work in 1936. MMT as it is being rehashed today was actually first described by a German economist name Georg Friedrich Knapp in 1905. Originally coined ‘chartalism’ by Knapp, this perversion of economics was pushed in Knapp’s 1905 ‘State Theory of Money’. The term comes from the Latin root charta, which means ‘token’ or ‘ticket’.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 03, 2019

Freight Slowdown Is a Terrible Sign for the Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Patrick_Watson

Just as an army moves on its stomach, an economy moves on ships, trucks, and planes. They carry the goods whose purchase adds up to growth.

Nowadays many goods are digital, delivered electronically. But we still need lots of physical stuff which must travel to the customer.

Fewer goods in motion mean lower growth… and that’s exactly what is happening.

With technology, businesses have grown adept at managing inventory. Goods don’t typically sit on store shelves very long. Retailers stop ordering quickly when demand falls.

Lower freight volume is a symptom of a disease that’s getting worse.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 03, 2019

New US-Sino Trade Truce: Tougher Talks, More Economic Damage / Economics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

During the G20 summit, China and US agreed to re-start the trade talks. As the US trade war is slowing China’s growth, the collateral damage is now spreading in the US economy, while undermining global prospects.

Despite the White House’s efforts to lobby other countries against Huawei, President Trump also said that US companies can supply the technology giant, which the US, Department of Commerce blacklisted last month.

After Osaka, the negotiators face challenging obstacles, despite still another temporary timeout. Deep bilateral disagreements prevail about major structural issues.

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Economics

Monday, July 01, 2019

Zimbabwe's Inflation is Still Surging / Economics / Inflation

By: Steve_H_Hanke

The most important price in an economy is the exchange rate between the local currency and the world’s reserve currency — the U.S. dollar. As long as there is an active black‐market (read: free market) for currency and the data are available, changes in the black‐market exchange rate can be reliably transformed into accurate estimates of countrywide inflation rates—if the annual inflation rates exceed 25%. The economic principle of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) allows for this transformation.

I compute the implied annual inflation rates with high‐frequency data and report them on a daily basis. PPP is used to translate changes in the black‐market exchange rates into annual inflation rates. For the countries that I follow each day, the table below shows the annual rates for the five countries with the highest inflation rates.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

Today’s Pets.com and NINJA Loan Economy / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2019

By: Michael_Pento

The NASDAQ bubble that existed two decades ago contained a plethora of internet companies, such as Pets.com, that proved in the end to having a non-viable business model. Yet, because they enjoyed access to cheap credit, it allowed them to exist for a long time without generating positive cash flow. This, in turn, created artificial and temporary demand for all kinds of capital goods investments such as, fiber optic cable and routing equipment, which in turn served to provide a significant boost to economic growth. The consumption derived from equity prices that generated huge capital gains also proved to be a temporary and artificial support for GDP.

The same dynamic was true for the Real Estate bubble circa 2008. Subprime home buyers purchased multiple properties with no income, no job, and no assets behind their loans. This caused home prices to soar and propelled owners to extract a massive amount of equity from elevated property values that proved to be fictitious. This employed an army of lawyers, real estate brokers, and construction workers; and at the same time was a boon for the basic materials industry, home furnishing stores, etc.

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