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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, May 17, 2019

This Is a Recession Indicator No One Is Talking About—and It’s Flashing Red / Economics / Recession 2019

By: Patrick_Watson

The yield curve isn’t the only sign recession is coming. Rising corporate misconduct says the same.

Business scandals seem to peak at the end of every growth cycle. I think that’s because CEOs are human, and humans get overconfident when everything is going well.

  • In the late 1980s, we had the savings & loan crisis, followed by recession in 1990–91.
  • The early 2000s brought both a deep recession and scandals at Enron, Tyco, WorldCom, and others.
  • The Great Recession exposed Bernie Madoff’s fraud scheme. A couple of years earlier, commodity broker Refco went bankrupt after its CEO had concealed millions in bad debts.

Allegations of negligence and/or misconduct at public companies now seem to be growing again…

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Economics

Thursday, May 16, 2019

It’s Not Technology but the Fed That Is Taking Away Jobs / Economics / Employment

By: John_Mauldin


You’ve likely heard of the term “income inequality.” It means wealthy people are making a larger share of our collective income.

In one sense, it’s nothing new. The people with the highest incomes have more of the total. Math guarantees it.

But the top’s share has largely grown in recent decades, as has the share of assets owned by the wealthiest.

In fact, Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates says that income inequality is now at the same level it was in the Great Depression.

Let’s review some charts from my friend Bruce Mehlman’s latest fascinating slide deck. It does a good job of explaining the drivers of this trend and its striking scale.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Breaking Down Today’s Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Rodney_Johnson

I recently had dinner with my extended family. Afterwards, my parents mentioned they were surprised at how expensive the meal had been. It was a nice restaurant, but nothing fancy. It worked out to roughly $50 apiece, before tip. As we left, we separately climbed into our newish cars, which all cost more than $40,000. My brother-in-law’s pickup tops out over $50,000.

But don’t worry, the government tells us, there’s not much inflation.

We could have chosen a cheaper restaurant, and less expensive cars, which is exactly the point the government tries to make…

The government wants us accustomed to the chained consumer price index (CPI), where prices move higher and we’re chained to a falling standard of living.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Sunday, May 12, 2019

US Stock Market Leading Macro Economic Indicators Update / Economics / US Economy

By: Troy_Bombardia

Instead of trying to predict when the economy will deteriorate in the distant future (which countless experts have tried and failed), we simply look for deterioration among the leading indicators. Instead of predicting the next 10 steps, we seek to predict the next 1-2 steps for the economy.

Here’s a brief summary of the leading economic indicators we track

Positive factors

  1. Labor market
  2. Corporate profits
  3. Financial conditions
  4. Loans
  5. High yield spreads
  6. Inflation-adjusted new orders
  7. Heavy Truck Sales

Negative factors

  1. Housing
  2. Yield curve
  3. Inflation-adjusted retail sales
  4. Earnings revisions
  5. Average weekly hours
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Economics

Friday, May 10, 2019

Make America’s Economy Great Again / Economics / US Economy

By: Richard_Mills

A lot of Americans find themselves in a quandary over Donald Trump. On the one hand they can’t stand the braggadocious billionaire for his lack of principles, business ethics, exorbitant wealth, his treatment of women, minorities, the list goes on and on. But they also have to admit, the economy is in better shape now than when Barack Obama was installed in the White House.

Can Trump justifiably take credit for the economic expansion of the last two and a half years? Why is the US economy growing? In this article, we’ll take a deep dive into the question, “Why is the American economy great again?”

The sweet spot

The facts would appear to support that notion - the evidence shows that the economy has done extremely well since Trump was inaugurated as president in January, 2017.

In the first quarter, the US economy barreled along at 3.2%. A year ago it was at 4.2%. That’s not the highest growth the American economy has seen historically, but it’s pretty good. Taking a look at the chart below by Trading Economics, we can see that economic growth peaked in 2014, at close to 6%, when Obama was president, then dropped under 1% as the US election cycle began, in 2015. Since Trump has taken the helm, the trend line is clearly up.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, May 07, 2019

Record-Low Unemployment and Trump’s Message to China: Implications for Gold / Economics / US Economy

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The US unemployment rate dropped in April to 3.6 percent, a level not seen since December 1969. So, everything must be great. With the exception of the renewed worries about the U.S.-China trade deal. On Sunday, President Trump surprised the markets again. What did he write exactly and how could his tweets affect the gold market?

US Economy Adds More Than 250,000 new jobs in April

America created 263,000 jobs last month, following a strong rise of 189,000 in March (after an downward revision). The number surprised again on a positive side, as the economists polled by the MarketWatch forecasted 213,000 created jobs.

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Economics

Saturday, May 04, 2019

Trump Trade War Is Widening, Not Ending / Economics / Protectionism

By: Patrick_Watson

Almost every day brings comforting news on the trade front. They’re talking! Someone went to Beijing! Someone else is optimistic!

The problem is, that’s just talk. The longer it goes on, the more tariffs damage the economy.

Let’s call tariffs what they are: import taxes. Maybe then the people who oppose all other taxes will stop thinking tariffs are somehow helpful.

There are better and less harmful ways to achieve our goals. But what you or I think doesn’t really matter.

President Trump likes tariffs, and current law lets him use a “national security” pretext to impose them.

So they will continue until he changes his mind, and there’s no sign he will.

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Economics

Friday, May 03, 2019

Economic Dominoes Are Starting to Drop / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2019

By: John_Mauldin

In the Great Recession, authorities faced enormous pressure to “do something.”

Letting nature take its course may well have been the best strategy. But it couldn’t happen that way in our political system. They had to act.

In 2008–2009, we got things like TARP—the Troubled Asset Relief Program that used $431 billion of your money to buy loans that banks no longer wanted on their books.

What we now forget is that TARP helped banks that weren’t even banks before that point. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and numerous other broker-dealers and insurers hurriedly got bank charters specifically so they could be part of TARP.

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Economics

Friday, May 03, 2019

Universal Basic Income Would Be a Social and Economic Disaster / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Jared_Dillian

I am never going to retire. Oh sure, I say that now, but what about when I am 80? No. I will never stop working.

Every morning, I get out of bed when the alarm goes off, take a shower, put on dress clothes (a suit, usually), and drive 35 minutes to work in an office that I rent in an office building.

I write newsletters. I can just as easily do that on the couch, in a pair of gym shorts, with a cup of coffee. Why spend over an hour a day commuting and dealing with all the brain damage of putting on a suit and going to work?

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Economics

Friday, May 03, 2019

UK Real Unemployment Rate is 5.5 million - Britains Benefits Culture / Economics / Unemployment

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis directly continues on from (UK Demographics Crisis Silver Lining of Sorts) which is part of a series that aims to conclude in a new multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices. But first a recap of my analysis to date that so far suggests to ignore mainstream press hysteria that warns of impending doom for Britains housing market, encouraged no less than the Government and Bank of England which warn to expect a 30% CRASH in UK house prices should the UK LEAVE the EU without a deal.

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Economics

Friday, May 03, 2019

Toward Japan’s Economic End-Game / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

As the spotlight has been on Japan's new Emperor Naruhito, the economy is coping with half a decade of Abenomics, monetary injections, huge debt – and a proposed sales tax that could make things a lot worse by the fall.

Ever since Shinzo Abe started his second stint as Prime Minister, Japan has focused on positive economic signals, which has sparked futile hopes, including a bad sales tax proposition.

Japanese officials vow to stick to the planned tax hike in October (it has been delayed twice), barring a big economic shock. With the 2019 budget, Abe hopes to offset adverse impact of the sales tax by returning much of the extra revenue to consumers via $18 billion of offsetting measures, instead of faster debt-reduction.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 30, 2019

U.S. GDP Accelerates, while Socialists Triumph in Spain. Will Gold also Win? / Economics / US Economy

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The US economic growth in the Q1 2019 positively surprised. Indeed, on the upside. The doubting Thomasses were proven wrong. And The Socialist Party just won the snap elections in Spain. Is the left back in vogue in the Eurozone? But what does it all mean for the gold market?

US GDP Surprises on the Upside

On Friday, the government said that the US GDP expanded at a 3.2 percent annual pace in the first three months of 2019. What is important is that the number significantly surpassed the forecasts. For example, the economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a 2.3 percent increase. The fears of the slowdown were overblown, as we have been warning for a long time.
Actually, the American economy accelerated in the first three months of 2019, as the economy grew at a 2.2 percent in Q4 2018, as one can see in the chart below.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, April 30, 2019

This Indicator Signals the US Economy Is Slowing Down / Economics / US Economy

By: Patrick_Watson

It’s not a good sign for your health if your blood pressure drops too low. Similarly, the economy is probably sick when its circulatory system slows down.

You don’t need a blood pressure gauge to know it either. Just count how many trucks you see on the highway.

Under normal conditions, busy highways and seaports mean a growing economy. Businesses are producing more stuff finding its way to consumers.

That was happening since we emerged from the Great Recession in 2009, albeit slower than in the past cycles.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Economics

Tuesday, April 30, 2019

When Overvalued and Dangerous Markets Meet Stagflation / Economics / Stagflation

By: Michael_Pento

To put into perspective how overvalued and dangerous the US market has become; I often cite the figure of total market cap to GDP—currently 145% of the economy. How high is 145% of GDP? It is a full 30% higher than it was before the start of the Great Recession. The twin sister to this metric is the Household Net Worth to GDP Ratio. Household net worth as a percent of GDP is calculated by dividing the current bubbles in home prices and equities by the underlying economy, which has been artificially inflated by interest rates that have been pushed into the sub-basement of history. This metric is now an incredible 535% of GDP, which is a record high and 19% higher than the NASDAQ bubble of 2000. To put that figure in perspective, the good folks at Daily Reckoning have calculated that the historical average is 384%.

These valuation measurements are much more accurate than Wall Street’s favorite PE ratio valuation barometer because they cannot be easily manipulated by corporate share buybacks that have been facilitated by record-low borrowing costs. And, as hinted at already, the GDP denominator of today is much more tenuous because it has become more than ever predicated on the record amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus from the government.

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Economics

Friday, April 26, 2019

The US Economy Is Reaching a Dead End / Economics / Recession 2020

By: John_Mauldin

Sooner or later, the US will enter a recessionMy best guess is it will happen sometime in 2020. I may be off (early) by a year or two, but it’s coming.

We know two things will happen.
  • Tax revenues will fall as people’s income drops.
  • Federal spending will rise as safety-net entitlement claims go up.

The result will be higher deficits.

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Economics

Thursday, April 25, 2019

If This Pattern Holds True, the US Economy Could Face the Worst Stagnation in History / Economics / Great Depression II

By: John_Mauldin

I recently made a case that the Fed’s monetary policy is turning Japanese. Let’s examine how that worked for them.

From one perspective, it has done quite well. From another, they have paid a cost.

Is it worth it? I think many Japanese, likely a big majority, would say yes.

An Economic Miracle?

The Bank of Japan has more than 140% of Japanese GDP on its balance sheet.

Its laws let it buy equities not just in Japan but all over the world and it did. Yet the currency is roughly the same value as it was when the Bank of Japan got busy with that project.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Forecasting 2020s : Two Recessions, Higher Taxes, and Japan-Like Flat Markets / Economics / Recession 2020

By: John_Mauldin

I’m slowly losing confidence in the economy. 

I still think the economy is okay for now. But I also see recession odds rising considerably in 2020. Maybe it will get pushed back another year or two, but at some point, this growth phase will end.

It will be either recession or an extended flat period (even flatter than the last decade, which says a lot).  On top of that, we are headed toward a global credit crisis I’ve dubbed The Great Reset.

Let me give you the CliffsNotes version of how I think the next decade will play out.

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Economics

Friday, April 19, 2019

The Global Economy Looks Disturbingly Like Japan Before Its “Lost Decade” / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

After World War II, Japan experienced rapid growth as the US and others helped rebuild its economy.  This led to a roaring expansion that culminated in the 1980s Japanese asset bubble.

It popped in the early 1990s bringing what came to be called the “Lost Decade.” It was really more than a decade, as the early 2000s brought only mild recovery.

GDP shrank, wages fell, and asset prices dropped or went sideways at best. Japan is still grappling with it today.

Now the rest of the world is approaching a period that may be an equivalent of Japan’s “Lost Decade.” It won’t be the end of the world, but it might be more painful than in Japan.  

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Economics

Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Even the President is Terrified of the Dreaded “D” Word Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: Graham_Summers

The following tweet tells you everything you need to know about the state of the US financial system today…

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Economics

Sunday, April 14, 2019

From US-Sino Talks to New Trade Wars, Weakening Global Economic Prospects / Economics / Protectionism

By: Dan_Steinbock

Recently, IMF cut global growth forecasts. As US-Sino trade talks will give way to next trade wars, new tariff wars will not resolve US deficits but will further impair global economic prospects.

Ever since the US-Sino trade talks began almost four months ago, the United States has pushed for a broad commitment focusing on China’s economic practices, including participation of U.S. firms in certain industries and protection of U.S. intellectual property rights (IPRs).

In a recent CNBC interview, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin claimed that the countries had “pretty much agreed” on an enforcement mechanism for a trade deal. After his meeting with the Chinese delegation last week, President Trump stated that negotiators may need four more weeks to package the deal.

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