Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, March 09, 2021
Amid Uncertainty, China’s Quest for Bold Development / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
At a historical moment of hope and uncertainty, China pledges bold economic development, despite global tensions.
China’s annual “Two Sessions” meeting has approved national priorities for 2021. Delivered by Premier Li Keqiang, the Government Work Report set a growth target of over 6 percent for Chinese economy for 2021, releasing a numeric goal after it was skipped in 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
China plans to create more than 11 million new jobs in 2021, while keeping inflation rate (CPI) at 3 percent and cutting the deficit-to-GDP ratio to 3.2 percent. The goal is to increase annual R&D spending by more than 7 percent in the next five years, including foreign-funded R&D centers in China.
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Monday, March 08, 2021
US Economy, GDP, Unemployment, Inflation Impact on House Prices Trend 2021 / Economics / US Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US economy is recovering fast from the corona crash with annualised GDP down just 2.8% for Q3, a remarkable performance and far better than most western nations.
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Sunday, March 07, 2021
The Case for Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers recently pointed out that overstimulation risk will far exceed the “output gap” shown in the latest Congressional Budget Office economic projections.
What is an output gap? Gross Domestic Product measures (or at least tries to) economic growth. Economists also calculate “potential GDP,” which is how much the economy could grow, if every available worker and other resource were fully employed.
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Saturday, March 06, 2021
US & UK Head for Post Coronavirus Pandemic Lockdown Inflationary Economic BOOM / Economics / Coronavirus 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Starting Monday Britains final Coronavirus lockdown will start to come to an end, first with the opening of all of Britains schools and soon followed by outdoor sports facilities, then shops with the bulk of opening including Universities to resume teaching students after Easter so in about 2 months now, by Mid May we will be largely be living in post pandemic lockdown's world when we can all soon go on holiday at home and abroad with our vaccine passports which should mark the start of a 2 year economic boom, given pent up demand and £400 billion of money printing to date. Though with 5 million on furlough then despite the coming boom unemployment will increase as 5 million workers find out whether they still have a job or not.
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Thursday, March 04, 2021
Get Ready for Inflation Mega-trend to Surge 2021 / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
So the US looks set to approve stimulus spending of $1,9 trillion for the US economy during 2021, with economists singing it's praises of how basically you get a free lunch, one of huge deficit spending at zero interest rate and no inflation. Understand $1.9 trillion is 10% of the US Economy! This for an economy that has already recovered from the covid depression and was destined to grow by about 3% in 2021. So what happens when one throws 10% of GDP at an economy that is growing by 3% per annum. No you don't get GDP growth of 13% per annum, yes it will boost US GDP for 2021 but not by 10%, perhaps by another 3%, so where does the other 7% or $1.5 trillion go? Into HIGHER PRICES, INFLATION! Some of which may be reflected in the official inflation indices.
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Wednesday, March 03, 2021
Gold To Monetary Base Ratio Says No Hyperinflation / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Kelsey_Williams
A fundamental tenet regarding money and inflation is that ongoing money creation by governments and central banks (Federal Reserve) cheapens the value of all money (US dollars) in circulation and leads to a loss of purchasing power. The loss in purchasing power shows up in the form of higher prices for all goods and services.
As long as the amount of money that is created is somewhat moderate and regular, then the effects are presumed to be moderate, as well. Hence, we experience increases in the cost of living on an ongoing basis, but in incremental amounts of maybe two or three percent each year.
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Wednesday, March 03, 2021
The Case Against Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Mauldin
For inflation to be a near-term threat, five things would have to happen this year:
- Vaccines and other measures bring the pandemic under control this summer in the US and other developed countries.
- Consumers use relief dollars, savings, and/or borrowing to quickly increase their spending on discretionary goods and services.
- This spending is large enough to exceed post-pandemic production capacity and spark price increases.
- The Federal Reserve lets the economy “run hot” and maintains its low interest rates and asset purchases.
- Congress and the Biden administration leave the fiscal spigots open by not raising taxes or cutting spending.
All these are possible. Are they likely?
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Monday, February 22, 2021
Economics Is Why Vaccination Is So Hard / Economics / Coronavirus 2021
By: Patrick_Watson
When a house burns down, it affects more than just the owner, occupants, and even the neighbors.
Quick, efficient firefighting is a public good. Stopping contagious diseases is another public good. The public interest demands all fires—in all forms—be extinguished before they spread.
Now we have COVID-19 vaccines that, while imperfect, are generally safe and effective. We should deliver them with the same urgency with which we send fire trucks to every blaze.
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Tuesday, February 16, 2021
THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND QE4EVER! / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
US House Prices Real Estate Trend Forecast Review
Did the perma bears finally get their US house prices crash that they have been crowing so loudly for a decade now?
Firstly a recap of my existing US house prices trend forecast.
30th April 2019 - US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021
Therefore my forecast conclusion is for a relatively weak continuation of the US housing bull market into late 2020 at a much shallower pace than experienced in recent years for a likely gain of just 3% over the next 2 years (Jan 2019 to Jan 2021) before entering into a downtrend going into 2021 i.e. Case Shiller 10 city Index (SPCS10RNSA ) rising from 225.9 (Jan 2019 data) to just 232.4 (Jan 2021 data) as illustrated by my trend forecast graph.
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Saturday, February 13, 2021
US-China Reset Key to Brighter Global Economic Prospects / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
After four years of US-Sino tensions, the Biden administration could speed up US recovery, while restoring bilateral trust with China. That would foster global economic prospects. The reverse would undermine those prospects.
In the United States, the third wave of the COVID-19 peaked with 250,000 confirmed cases daily after the holiday period. Following the catastrophic mishandling of the pandemic by the Trump administration, total cases are approaching 27 million and the 440,000 deaths exceed US military fatalities in World War II.
After effective containment, confirmed cases in China remain below 90,000. With the Spring Festival holidays just days away, recent resurgences have renewed concerns about outbreaks and people have been urged to avoid travels during holidays. Despite some unease, public-health authorities believe a major outbreak is unlikely.
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Friday, February 12, 2021
Bubblicious Asset Prices, Debt Dependency, Economic Collapse / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Kelsey_Williams
The words bubbly and delicious might be more descriptively accurate when talking about champagne. However, it is not too difficult to imagine giddy salivation among the owners of Bitcoin, or Tesla stock.
And, while some might be more stringent in their terms of definition and applicability, investors in stocks, bonds, real estate, etc. – pretty much anything with a $ sign in front of it – might want to rethink the current state of affairs as it pertains to valuation of their financial assets.
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Friday, February 12, 2021
UK Real Inflation is 15% to 20% - Grocery Price Rises Due to Rampant Money Printing / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Government and Bank of England would have you believe that Inflation is not a problem as they continue to focus the masses on their fake conjured out of thin air inflation indices such as CPI at just 1.4%, so as to allow the theft of real purchasing power to continue unabated as the government goes on an annual £400 billion spending spree, racking up debt that the Bank of England is busy monetization though QE, all so as to suppress real interest rates giving the illusion that the consumers are getting a free lunch, i.e. rampant government money printing deficit spending all without any inflationary consequences that the morons in the mainstream financial press are more than happy to regurgitate. However REAL inflation, that which people experience when they do their weekly shops is far higher than the fake 1.4%, REAL Inflation is at LEAST 15% and more like 20% as that is what happens when the Government starts paying 1/3rd of the workforce to stay at home, as has been the case for most of 2020 and continuing into 2021.
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Thursday, February 11, 2021
The Gripping Hand Holds Inflation / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: John_Mauldin
The question people ask me most often is when the US will see inflation.
Not to be a two-handed economist ("on the one/other hand"), but it's really the third hand—the gripping hand, which has the least dexterity and the most strength—that holds the answer.
The thing is, you cannot predict inflation or deflation until you know what happens with COVID-19 this summer.
The good news is that US vaccinations are accelerating. States and the federal government are working out bugs in the process. Supply constraints are easing a bit. It is still going much too slowly, but was always going to be an ordeal. The single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine should be approved soon and will help give everyone a chance to be vaccinated by this summer.
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Thursday, January 28, 2021
Captain Biden now Piloting MMT Adventure / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Richard_Mills
Gold may have come off the boil after rising above $1,900 an ounce in the aftermath of the US election, but the precious metal, and its sister silver, will do very well under a Biden presidency, an Ahead of the Herd analysis has found.
The main factors are drastically increased government spending, leading to even more unsustainable US debt levels than currently, along with rising inflation; dovish monetary policy as the Federal Reserve continues to advocate near 0% interest rates; and a sinking US dollar. Gold prices and the USD generally move in opposite directions.
Covid spending ‘out the wazoo’
Within the current structural bull market for gold, the antecedents of the next phase are in the spending promises of President-elect Joe Biden.
Biden, despite claiming otherwise, believes strongly in the power of the state to tax and spend, and will face overwhelming pressure from the left wing of the Democratic Party – supporters of hard-left progressives like Elizabeth Warren, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders – to toe the party line. A long wish list waits to be filled, with little to no concern regarding the already out of control $28 billion national debt, courtesy of Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT.
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Thursday, January 28, 2021
China's Accelerated Economic Recovery Key to Global Growth / Economics / China Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
Unlike other major economies, China has rebounded and its recovery is accelerating. It could fuel a third of global economic growth in 2021.
With the Spring Festival holidays just weeks away, recent resurgences of COVID-19 infections in Jilin province and Shijiazhuang, Hebei province have renewed concerns about sporadic outbreaks.
China’s public-health authorities believe a major outbreak of the novel coronavirus in the Chinese mainland is unlikely. The authorities have taken strong containment measures to rapidly identify, isolate and control potential outbreaks.
Nonetheless, despite the holidays, Chinese people have been urged to avoid travels, to keep the infection rate under control. Downside risks permit no complacency in the foreseeable future.
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Tuesday, January 26, 2021
4 Economic Challenges for 2021 / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: John_Mauldin
This year will bring several economic challenges in the U.S.—some we may not yet foresee. But I can already identify at least four.
First, the coronavirus pandemic is permanently changing certain parts of the economy.
I’ll start with the one most familiar to me: business travel. It came to a screeching halt last spring. Airlines, hotels, and so on since recovered a little but are nowhere near normal, nor are most profitable. They’re just holding on.
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Monday, January 25, 2021
Economic Stimulus Doesn’t Always Stimulate – Pushing On A String / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: Kelsey_Williams
The word stimulus has become an oft-repeated term, sometimes overused. We are referring to the non-biological meaning below.
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Sunday, January 24, 2021
4 Reasons for Coronavirus 2021 Hope / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: John_Mauldin
2021 may feel more like an extension of 2020 rather than a fresh start. But take heart—there is plenty of good news out there.
Here are four things to be hopeful about today:
First, we now have weapons against the coronavirus. The US has two approved vaccines. England, China and Russia have developed their own. Additional vaccines are under development and will likely be available later this year.
These will be game-changers if we manage to deploy them widely and quickly. Which, I admit, is a big “if.”
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Friday, January 22, 2021
2021: The Year of the Gripping Hand / Economics / Coronavirus Depression
By: John_Mauldin
Harry Truman famously asked for a one-handed economist so he could stop hearing, “On the one hand, but then on the other hand.”
But what if we had three hands?
Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle's 1974 book, "The Mote in God’s Eye," features an alien species with three arms. It has two “normal” hands and a stronger, but less dexterous one called the “gripping hand.”
Tuesday, January 05, 2021
Consumer Prices Are Not Reflecting Higher Inflation; Neither Is The CRB / Economics / Inflation
By: Kelsey_Williams
As of November 30th, the annual inflation rate for the year 2020 is 1.17% (CPI). And it is not likely to get a whole lot worse anytime soon.
When the Federal Reserve responded to the financial crisis of 2007-08 with hugely unprecedented monetary expansion efforts, many thought that it would lead to runaway inflation and collapse of the U.S. dollar. It didn’t; and the expected higher inflation rates did not occur.
What did happen is that consumer prices remained reasonably stable and we even saw lower prices in 2009 and 2015.
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