Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, December 27, 2010
Have Events During 2010 Vindicated Keynesian Economic Models? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
In last Monday's article I discussed Jim Manzi's debate with economist Karl Smith. I pointed out that Smith's evidence in favor of mainstream macroeconomic models was actually consistent with the view that fiscal and monetary "stimulus" policies only stoke economic crises.
In the present article, I'll show a different example of this same pattern. Specifically, Paul Krugman took a macro forecast from Mark Zandi, and then after the fact compared it to the actual trajectory of GDP. Krugman concluded that Keynesian theory was vindicated, when in fact the results are more in line with what the critics predicted would happen.
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Monday, December 27, 2010
China Hikes Interest Rates on High Inflation, Risks Hard Economic Landing in 2011 / Economics / China Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Inflation is running at a reported 5.1% in China, a figure most believe is on the low side. Nonetheless, China has been loath to hike rates out of fear of more "hot money" flowing in. Something had to give, and it did. The markets forced China's hand.
Monday, December 27, 2010
The Ghost of Economic Future / Economics / US Economy
By: Bill_Bonner
What does the ghost of Christmas Future have to show us? What grave? What empty chair? What jokers at the funeral?
The end of the year approacheth. What do we know? What have we learned? Where have we come to?
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Sunday, December 26, 2010
China Outlook 2011 and the Next Decade, Is the Smart Money Right? / Economics / China Economy
By: Dian_L_Chu
China has been ranked as the top growing country among the G20 since 2001 and is expected to retain that title for at least another five years (See Growth Chart). However, the news coming out of China for the past three months has not been good. It is looking more and more that it is not a question of if China is a bubble and going to burst, but when.
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Rise of the Free Market Zombies / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
For his Sunday column, Paul Krugman wrote a piece titled "When Zombies Win." Krugman claims that "free-market fundamentalists" — including Ron Paul — have been successful politically, despite being thoroughly discredited by recent events. As we'll see, it's a good thing that these ideas of shrinking government refuse to die, no matter how often Krugman attacks them.
Thursday, December 23, 2010
No, Mr. Krugman, You're Eating America Alive / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Neeraj_Chaudhary
Here we go again. This week, Paul Krugman, the 2008 Nobel Prize winner in economics and the go-to guy for progressives who need a morale boost, launched another misguided attack on Austrian School economists. From his New York Times soapbox, he referred to the free-market Austrian "hard money" philosophy as a "zombie idea" that is inexplicably eating the brains of the voting public.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Economic Austerity Fails in Euroland: Time for Some Deficit Easing? / Economics / Economic Austerity
By: Ellen_Brown
“Doubtful it stood, as two spent swimmers that do cling together, and choke their art.” --Shakespeare, “Macbeth”
The Greek bailout was supposed to be an isolated case, a test of the EU’s ability to quarantine an infected member, preventing it from spreading “debt contagion.”
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Thursday, December 23, 2010
The Inflation Waves of 2011 / Economics / Inflation
By: John_Browne
One of the founding myths of the modern global financial system was that governments, especially of the developed democracies, could borrow endlessly without consequence. But, with sovereign debt crises erupting across the globe, it appears that the umbrella of perceived safety has gotten smaller, exposing some benighted countries, like Greece and Ireland, to severely rough weather.
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Wednesday, December 22, 2010
What Is the Current State of Economic Science? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Erwin Rosen writes: What is the current state of economic science? In two words, "not good."
This is evident in the poor performance of the economics profession during the current financial crisis. Few economists saw it coming; once it started, its severity caught them by surprise; and now it is apparent that there is no agreement among them on how to end it.
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Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Commodity Super Cycle Ripples into China / Economics / China Economy
By: Gary_Dorsch
Exactly two-years ago, - the world’s commodity and stock markets were caught in the grips of a death spiral. As revelations of the extreme magnitude of the sub-prime mortgage debt crisis began to surface, banks began cutting off funding to companies and other borrowers, despite efforts by governments and central banks to unlock jammed credit markets. Global cross-border lending by banks shrank $5-trillion in the last nine months of 2008, the sharpest fall ever recorded.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
How Much Faith Should We Put in Keynesian Economic Models? / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
Jim Manzi is a private-sector expert in statistical analysis. He is my favorite commentator on the economics of climate change, because he dove into the IPCC reports and found that the proposed legislative "cures" (cap-and-trade or carbon-tax laws) are arguably worse than the disease, even according to the "consensus" numbers.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Euro-zone Debt Crisis, European Monetary Union to Muddle Through or Fall Apart? / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: Global_Research
Ingo Schmidt writes: Springtime in Athens, Dublin in the fall. Lisbon next time or Madrid? The sparks of public deficits, foreign debt, and soaring risk premiums have lit a fire of fiscal and debt crises in the European periphery that have even inflamed the corridors of Euro-power – the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Commission and the capitals of the European Union (EU) heavyweights of France and Germany. In May, when Greece accepted a €45-billion bailout package, with the usual neoliberal adjustment strings attached, only a few folks on the fringes of the political spectrum speculated about the break-up of the Euro-zone. The recent negotiations between the Irish government and the EU, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the governments of Britain, Denmark and Sweden, were concluded with an additional €85-billion worth of credits and guarantees being anted up. But they also have started to raise serious concerns about the future of the Euro.
Monday, December 20, 2010
Brazil From Debt Pariah to Cash King, The New Miracle Economy / Economics / Brazil
By: Martin_D_Weiss
Brazil’s economy is booming, and I can assure you, it’s not a bubble.
I am also certain that the vast riches being made are not a flash in the pan.
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Monday, December 20, 2010
The Zombie Banks Feast, Whilst the Economy Starves / Economics / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Gary_North
Japan, Inc. is run by the big banks for the big corporations. America, Inc. is run by the big corporations for the big banks. Take your pick.
Japan has not had hyperinflation. Neither have we. But will we? In the words of Nashville part-time singer and full-time financial advisor, Merle Hazard, "Will it be Zimbabwe or Japan?" If you have not seen Merle's video, you really should. It's here.
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Saturday, December 18, 2010
Europe Kicking the Debt Crisis Can Down the Road / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Different Cans for Different Folks
More Debt is NOT the Solution to Too Much Debt
Et Tu, Belgium?
How often did we as young kids go down the street kicking a can? "Kicking the can down the road" is a universally understood metaphor that has come to mean not dealing with the problem but putting a band-aid on it, knowing we will have to deal with something maybe even worse in the future.
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Saturday, December 18, 2010
America’s Second Great Depression 2010 Year-end Update (Part 1) / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mike_Stathis
“Regarding the Great Depression. You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again.” [1]
That quote was taken from a speech made by then Board of Governors member Ben Bernanke in 2002 to the Federal Reserve. Unfortunately, Bernanke’s pledge has been broken.
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Saturday, December 18, 2010
The Tax Deal and Inflationary Macroeconomic Stimulus / Economics / Taxes
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
It is becoming increasingly difficult to divide the politics from the policy, but the new tax deal being negotiated between Congress and the White House will set the stage for serious economic stimulus (and inflation) in 2011 and beyond.
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Saturday, December 18, 2010
Why Government is More Afraid of Debt than Economic Depression / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Videos
Michael Hudson: Deficit Hawks Want a One Two Punch Against the Economy.
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Index of Leading Economic Indicators Underscores Continuing Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) posted a solid 1.1% gain in November after a revised 0.4% increase in October. The LEI has risen at an annual rate of 8.7% in the three months ended November compared with a 0.4% gain during the previous three months (ending August). The accelerated increase of the LEI implies continued growth of the economy and at a stronger pace compared with the trend seen in recent months. The possibility of a double-dip discussed frequently in the summer months is almost irrelevant now.
Friday, December 17, 2010
Western Public Debt Bubble Explodes Sending Financial Shock Waves Across Europe and America / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Global_Research
GEAB writes: The second half of 2011 will mark the point in time when all the world’s financial operators will finally understand that the West will not repay in full a significant portion of the loans advanced over the last two decades. For LEAP/E2020 it is, in effect, around October 2011, due to the plunge of a large number of US cities and states into an inextricable financial situation following the end of the federal funding of their deficits, whilst Europe will face a very significant debt refinancing requirement