Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, January 05, 2011
China Economic Outlook 2011, The Red Dragon Takes Its Next Step Forward / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
Jason Simpkins writes:
If the United States has a growth problem, China has just the opposite. The world's second-largest economy is set to grow 9-10% this year, building on its strong rebound from the global financial crisis.
Furthermore, Beijing is determined to accelerate China's transition toward a more domestically based economy, while stabilizing prices and cutting government waste.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 05, 2011
Deflation Ahead / Economics / Deflation
By: Brian_Bloom
Recently, I had the privilege of watching the YouTube video below of a lecture given in Australia by Professor Niall Ferguson
In my view, except for the fact that Professor Ferguson did not even make a passing reference to the critical importance of energy in the economic stew, I think he absolutely nailed the current economic situation. He was looking at the world economy from the perspective of long term history – which I believe is most appropriate at this point in time. He is unequivocally of the view that the probabilities favour deflation. For various reasons, I agree with him.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 05, 2011
America's "Money Time Bomb": Quantitative Easing is Inflationary / Economics / Quantitative Easing
By: Bob_Chapman
With Ben Bernanke as our Shepard how can we go wrong? He tells us quantitative easing is not inflationary. He says that with assurance because he knows all the CPI statistics are as realistic as a Madoff Ponzi scheme. He also tells us he doesn’t create money out of thin air. He fails to mention that he does so digitally. His job is to further enrich the elitists who own the Fed and want to create a new world order. Prices are up 6-3/4% across the board as official inflation has only risen 1.2%.
Wednesday, January 05, 2011
Global and Regional Economic Outlook 2011 / Economics / Global Economy
By: David_Urban
The problem with making a year long commentary is that things can change which throws off your initial theory. That was the main problem with my forecast as Bernanke decided to launch QE2 amidst criticism from global central banks. This put a floor under the market and lit the fuse for the rally in equities and commodities.
So what happens in 2011 and how does that affect investment portfolios? From my chair looking out over the world here is what I see happening based on current events.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 05, 2011
Price Inflation to Pay the Debt / Economics / Inflation
By: Richard_Daughty
The lights of the Mogambo Security System (MSS) glowed dimly in the gloom of the bunker as I cowered in the darkness, and there were no sounds except the thumping, thumping, thumping of my terrified heart at The World Outside (TWO), a place I consider to be a vicious, hostile environment containing not only enemies of every sort, both real and imagined, but family members who want to know if I am coming out for dinner, or to tell me that someone is on the phone for me, or that somebody is going to greedily eat the last of my treasured Double-Stuf Oreos, somehow trying to get me outside and into their clutches so that they can take all my money and ask me to sign various forms and documents.
Wednesday, January 05, 2011
FOMC Meeting Minutes Indicate Fed Sees "Slow Progress" Towards Full Employment / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The Fed is focused on meeting its dual mandate of price stability and full employment. In this regard, the minutes indicate that the FOMC sees "only a gradual pickup in growth with slow progress toward maximum employment." A few participants held that an upside risk could emerge from a sharp growth in bank lending, given the easy monetary policy stance in place. At the same time, there was a great deal of concern about the housing market, particularly the large supply of unsold homes.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 05, 2011
Economists Can't Forecast for Toffee, In Defense of the “Old Always” / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
Long time readers of Outside the Box are familiar with the name of James Montier, who is now with GMO in their London office. Today, James, with his usual acerbic wit, takes on the notion of the "New Normal" and offers us a defense of the "Old Always." James is a value investor and sees mean reversion as still alive and kicking, where some proponents of the New Normal think we should throw out all of the old aphorisms. While I am in the New Normal camp, I also agree with James. This makes for some quick and thought-provoking reading.
Tuesday, January 04, 2011
The ISM Manufacturing Survey Kicks Off the New Year on a Bullish Note / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Asha_Bangalore
The U.S. manufacturing sector closed the year on a strong footing and kicked off 2011 with bullish news on the first trading. The ISM manufacturing composite index moved up to 57.0 in December vs. 56.6 in November, the highest reading since May 2010. The sharp increases in indexes tracking new orders (60.9 vs. 56. 6 in November) and production (60.7 vs. 55 in November) accounted for the higher composite index in December. Indexes measuring employment, vendor deliveries, inventories, exports and imports declined in December but are holding above 50.0. Readings above 50 denote an expansion while those below 50.0 are indicative of a contraction.
Tuesday, January 04, 2011
Australia Heading for Economic Crunch as Families Face Financial Collapse / Economics / Austrailia
By: Mike_Shedlock
The party is over in Australia. Many anti-dollar investors and Pollyannas living down under just don't realize it yet. Nonetheless, Australia faces an economic crunch as family finances collapse under the burden of record debts, rising interest rates and utility bills.
Monday, January 03, 2011
China’s Economy Is Being Pulled in All Directions / Economics / China Economy
By: Barry_Elias
I recently suggested it was possible to have high unemployment and inflation at the same time. Zimbabwe experienced unemployment above 90 percent while hyperinflation took over.
The basis for this is rather simple: demand for basic necessities, such as water and food, remain relatively constant irrespective of income.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 31, 2010
The Economic Flop That Was 2010 / Economics / Global Economy
By: Bill_Bonner
The year is almost over. Time to write the obituaries.
What kind of year was it? A flop. A failure. A loser. Just like we said it would be.
It was a “year that fizzled,” writes David Leonhardt in The New York Times.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Is Big Government a Myth? / Economics / Government Spending
By: Robert_Murphy
Lately the supporters of big government have deployed an interesting twist to their arguments, claiming that it is a dirty right-wing lie that government has grown under the Obama administration. Unlike arguments over economic theory, surely this should be an objective exercise in looking up the facts.
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Is Inflation Directly Tied to the Money Supply? / Economics / Inflation
By: Justice_Litle
Some argue that increased money supply (freshly printed dollars) automatically translates to inflation. This is not exactly true, and it’s important to understand why.
How do you define inflation? In some ways it's a slippery thing, like trying to nail Jell-O to a tree. One common definition amounts to "a general and sustained rise in the price of goods and services." Another is "a persistent decline in the purchasing power of money."
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Monetary Tightening Threatens China’s Economic Prospects / Economics / China Economy
By: Claus_Vogt
China’s role on the global stage has grown tremendously during the past several years. And there are valid reasons to believe this trend will continue. But it will not go as smoothly as many pundits assume …
On Christmas Day, Beijing raised the benchmark deposit and lending rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75 percent and 5.81 percent respectively. This is the second step in the current tightening cycle, following the first surprise 25 bps hike on October 19.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Bogus Economic Statistics Used as a Coverup Adding Fuel to the Financial Fire / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: Bob_Chapman
Mr. Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, a private corporation, would have us believe that, quantitative easing is the only way to save the US economy and to reverse the unemployment problem. He conveniently forgets to tell you that he authored a paper in 1988 with Mr. Michael Baskin that concluded that what Mr. Bernanke is doing with QE does not work. He told watchers of “60 Minutes” that the jobless rate would have been far higher; something like it was in the “Great Depression” at 25%. If Mr. Bernanke had taken time to have his minions do the research, he would have found that U3 at the peak of the “Great Depression” was 25.2% and U6 was 37.6%. As we write U3 is 9.8% and U6 is 17%.
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
The Emperor Keynes Still Has No Clothes / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gary_North
It is time to consider the recommendation and economic analysis of Yale University economist Robert Shiller. He is widely respected, the co-designer of the Case-Shiller index, which traces housing prices in 20 American cities. He coined the phrase "irrational exuberance," which was made famous by Alan Greenspan in the mid-1990s.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Hyperinflation, Never Say Never / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Captain_Hook
In reviewing the charts from the Chart Room over the weekend I came to the conclusion that in terms of timing the markets you don’t want to think in terms of price right now, but in terms of time, where again, we are not looking for a blow-off top in the present intermediate move until sometime in the first quarter next year, with early February the favored target from both historical and cyclical perspectives. How did I come to this conclusion? Answer: As you will see in the charts below, several breakouts and trend blow-offs are in the process of tracing out, meaning more time is needed for this to occur no matter how overbought technical conditions in the market are at this time. And while it’s true that everything from stocks to commodities are intermediate degree overbought, what this means is conditions will become even more overbought, and as a result, it’s possible hyperinflationary conditions in the US could at a minimum be tested.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Theft by Mercantilism, China and the Keynesian Trap / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Gary_North
"Thou shalt not steal, except by majority vote." ~ The Gospel According to Keynes, Chapter 1, verse 1.
Keynesianism is an economic philosophy based on the idea that the free market required intervention from the civil government in order to maintain justice and efficiency. The free market is both inefficient and unfair to the common man, Keynesianism teaches.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
America’s Second Great Depression 2010 Year-end Update (Part 2) / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Mike_Stathis
I continue where I left off from Part one of this report. [1]
Ever since the summer of 2009, economists from both Washington and Wall Street have told us that an economic recovery was in progress, but the data reveals a strikingly different picture. Some even insisted that a recovery began in late spring. You should note the source of these claims, as well as their agendas, so as to determine the underlying motives for disseminating this propaganda.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 27, 2010
Job Creation and Other Economic Myths / Economics / Economic Theory
By: MISES
Fred Buzzeo writes: Job creation has become the central theme of the current recession. The focus on job growth is widespread among both conservative (if I may use this term liberally) and left-leaning economists. Furthermore, if you ask the man on the street what the pressing economic problem of the time is, he will certainly respond, "Jobs."