Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Bullish Outlook for European Economies, U.S. QE2 Problems / Economics / Euro-Zone
By: John_Mauldin
This week we look at some mostly bullish analysis from my friends at GaveKal for the Outside the Box. Much of the letter is devoted to looking at why Europe may fare better than many think (which will make uber-European bull David Kotok happy to read!). But be very sure to read the last page as Steve Vannelli analyzes the latest speculation about the Fed and quantitative easing. All those calling for QE2 may not actually do what they think it will. His conclusion?
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
The Economic Stimulus is Dead - Long Live the Stimulus / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Adam_Lass
A trillion dollars still hasn't fixed the jobs problem. Washington's solution: change the name to "deflation fighting" and print even more!
How do you know when an idea has failed?
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Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Why U.S. Jobs Have Gone AWOL / Economics / Employment
By: Michael_Pento
There are three primary reasons why the US is suffering from structurally high unemployment: a pervasively irresponsible monetary policy, the continued attenuation of our manufacturing base, and an overleveraged consumer who must now reconcile his balance sheet. In reality, the latter two conditions are a direct result of the first. They are the result of a government that seeks to micromanage the cost of money and the rate of economic growth.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Economic Uncertainties No Longer! / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Sy_Harding
Fed Chairman Bernanke can move on from his warning of a couple of months ago that there are “unusual uncertainties” in the economy. There may still be uncertainties in the stock market, but no longer in the economy! It is almost surely headed into a recessionary period again.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
U.S. Economic Outlook Update, Is the Downturn Finally Over, if not, When it will end? / Economics / US Economy
By: Matthew_Ehrlich
Living in Asia for most of the past ten years and having spent another twenty traveling between Wall Street and Asia, I am constantly being asked if the US economic downturn is finally over and if not, when it will end. Not an easy question and if you are going to even attempt to understand my answer, you have to look at some of the MECHANICS of how it started, how it grew, how we got to where we are now and the possible paths to bring about an end.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
The Deflation Bogey / Economics / Economic Theory
By: William_Anderson
The Paul Reveres of the economics profession are riding their horses, warning Americans, "Deflation is coming! Deflation is coming!" From Paul Krugman to Joseph Gagnon to the various mainstream news publications, the message is the same — the government needs to induce inflation now, or else the economy will sink further into the Slew of Despond and unemployment will increase.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
In Defense of Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: Douglas_French
The Obama stimulus and bailouts haven't decreased unemployment rates or bankruptcy filings while home prices and home sales have fallen and can't get up. PIMCO's Bill Gross told Bloomberg this can all be fixed with nearly zero interest rates and additional debt to stimulate the animal spirits of investors and entrepreneurs. The federal-funds rate has been pegged at 0 to .25% since December 16, 2008, and Uncle Sam's debt is $13.3 trillion and counting. If this hasn't goosed the animal spirits, what will?
Monday, August 09, 2010
The Form of Saving Matters For Free-market Fractional Reserve Banking / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Robert_Murphy
Although Austrian economists agree on most of the "big picture" issues, even so there are some internal controversies. One of the most heated debates within the Austrian camp centers on the economic benefits (or lack thereof) of the practice of fractional-reserve banking. Just about every Austrian today thinks that our current financial system — cartelized and propped up by the government — is prone to excessive inflation and the boom-bust cycle.
Monday, August 09, 2010
Cutting Government Spending Is So Hard to Do / Economics / Government Spending
By: MISES
Grant M. Nülle writes: In recent months, fiscal austerity among governments on all levels has come to the political fore, albeit for different reasons.
In some cases, such as Greece, belt-tightening measures were essential to avert a sovereign-debt crisis. The Greek government enacted significant deficit-reduction solutions in order to receive monetary aid from the International Monetary Fund and European Union. In so doing, it continued the de facto monetization of Greek debt by the European Central Bank.
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Monday, August 09, 2010
Why All the Double Dip Recession Talk Is Pure B.S. … / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Larry_Edelson
If the recent slew of bad economic news coming out of the U.S. hasn’t convinced you that the economy stinks, then it’s time to wake up and smell the coffee. Because …
All the recent talk about a double-dip recession is nothing more than pure B.S.
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Monday, August 09, 2010
Fooled by Economic Stimulus, U.S. Economy Structural Problems Still Intact / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bill Watkins, a California Lutheran University professor, provides a nice summary on New Geography of the failure of various stimulus efforts to do anything meaningful in the wake of a collapse by Lehman, a collapse he says is a "regime shift".
Monday, August 09, 2010
U.S. Economy Between a Rock and a Hard Place Facing Dire Options / Economics / US Economy
By: Lorimer_Wilson
“The U.S. is in an untenable position - between a rock and a hard place - in an inescapable debt trap - where the options are, at best, dire – either hyperinflation or a deflationary depression! It would seem that all we can do is ride out the storm in a boat laden with gold” said Jeff Nielson (BullionBullsCanada.com) in a recent speech* going on to say:
Monday, August 09, 2010
UK Economy GDP Growth Forecast 2010 to 2015 / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis is a continuation of the UK Debt Forecast article (UK ConLib Government to Use INFLATION Stealth Tax to Erode Value of Public Debt ) on the impact of the new coalition government having effectively hit the reset button on the UK economy to now primarily target a reduction in the £156 billion annual budget deficit which aims to suck £113 billion a year out of the economy by 2015-16 by means of swinging public sector spending cuts and tax rises. The government has now clearly reversed the Labour governments policy of continuous fiscal expansion and set the country on a course for severe fiscal contraction for at least the next 3 years.
Monday, August 09, 2010
Hyperinflation Warning / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Howard_Katz
One hears much discussion of hyperinflation on the gold web sites. It is a worst case scenario and used to alarm and excite. It is used to designate a period when prices are rising very rapidly, the favorite example being Germany of 1914-23, and during this time prices rose by very close to one trillion times. That is, a piece of bread which started off costing 1 mark ended costing one trillion marks. So it is not merely in today’s world that we are using numbers above 1 trillion. But it is an instructive period of history, and we must always keep in mind that those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
Monday, August 09, 2010
Straddling 3D Super Bus for a Greener China / Economics / China Economy
By: Dian_L_Chu
With its rapidly growing rural-to-urban population, China is in the midst of a massive transportation infrastructure upgrade in order to maintain the country's economic growth and development.
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Sunday, August 08, 2010
Do You Believe We're In Economic Recovery? / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Justice_Litle
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has a message for the American public: "Welcome to the Recovery." As a joke it might be funny – but it isn't...
I read something this week that made me laugh out loud – though it wasn't supposed to be funny. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, aka Turbo Timmy, has an opinion piece in The New York Times titled "Welcome to the Recovery."
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Sunday, August 08, 2010
Is the U.S. Economy Toast? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Brian_Bloom
Marc Faber thinks the US economy is toast. Richard Russell’s interpretation of the technical behaviour of the US market is that we might just be entering a new Primary Bull phase. (Although he remains wary because of the generous P/E ratios that still prevail).
Saturday, August 07, 2010
Pensions Liabilities Problem and China Instability / Economics / Pensions & Retirement
By: John_Mauldin
August Surprise from Obama?
The Problem with Pensions
Whither China?
Sadly, I find myself with more than enough time to compose yet another Thoughts from the Frontline in an airport, as a flight booking error has me at JFK for six hours instead of fishing in Maine. Details for those interested or amused at the end. But it does allow me to offer you a peek into a very sobering report on how badly underfunded public pension are. The situation is worse than you think. Then we will close with a eye-opening report on China from the gracious Simon Hunt, who is allowing me to reprint his latest missive in toto. You really want to read this one. And we start with this rumor from Reuters, just in. Read this and weep. It comes from James Pethokoukis.
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Saturday, August 07, 2010
IMF Predicts 4.25% Growth for Russian Economy in 2010 / Economics / Russia
By: Pravda
In 2010, the Russian economy will grow by 4.25%, after falling 7.9% last year. This forecast was made yesterday by the International Monetary Fund.
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Saturday, August 07, 2010
U.S. July Employment Situation, Lackluster Private Sector Job Growth Once Again / Economics / Employment
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Civilian Unemployment Rate: 9.5% in July, no change from June's reading. The unemployment rate was 5.0% in December 2007 when the recession commenced. Cycle high for recession is 10.1% in October 2009 and the cycle low for the expansion that ended in December 2007 is 4.4% in March 2007.
Payroll Employment: -131,000 in July vs. -221,000 in June, net loss of 95,000 jobs after revisions of payroll estimates for May and June. Private sector payrolls rose 71,000 after a downwardly revised gain of 31,000 in June.