Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Peter Schiff on Academic and Press Economic Forecasters Flying Blind / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Peter_Schiff
Watching economists and media analysts react to breaking economic news is a bit like looking at a flock of pigeons flying over the New York skyline. A true wonder of the urban landscape, the flocks can include hundreds of individuals who show an uncanny ability to stay in tight formation as the group quickly zig-zags between buildings. What may be even more remarkable than their ability to randomly fly while maintaining cohesion is the flock's refusal to stick to any particular direction for very long, and their determination to fly feverishly without actually going anywhere. Sound familiar?
Friday, August 27, 2010
Why We May Already Be In Recession! / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Sy_Harding
First let’s look at the trend.
After an unusual four straight quarters of negative growth in the severe 2008-2009 recession, the recession ended in the September quarter of last year when GDP managed fragile growth of 1.6% for the quarter, and then improved to 5.0% growth in the December quarter.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Two Ways to Tell if the U.S. Economy is Ready to Rebound / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes:
The U.S. economy has been crippled by the financial crisis. And regardless of what policymakers try to do to spur growth, it will hobble along lamely until two major economic pillars are rectified.
Simply put, there's no chance that stock investors will see a healthy, long-term bull market until credit again begins to flow freely and home prices start rising.
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Thursday, August 26, 2010
The Great Debt Deleveraging Lie / Economics / US Debt
By: James_Quinn
You can't open a newspaper or watch a business news network without seeing or hearing that consumers and businesses have been de-leveraging. The storyline as portrayed by the mainstream media is that consumers and corporations have seen the light and are paying off debts and living within their means. Austerity has broken out across the land. Bloomberg peddled this line of bull last week:Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 26, 2010
China Gerts Worlds Largest Traffic Jam, Just a Brief Bottleneck on the Road to Growth / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
Don Miller writes: Besides recently being crowned the world's second-largest economy, China now has the dubious distinction of spawning the world's longest traffic jam. And it's all directly attributable to China's voracious appetite for energy and automobiles.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Downside Surprise / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
Spending on durable goods rose slightly in July but only on the back of an unsustainable spike in aircraft orders. The rest of the data ranged from weak to abysmal.
As has been the case recently, economists missed the mark by a mile. Economists expected a 3% rise, what they got was a .3% rise.
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Deflation Delusion Continues as Economies Trend Towards High Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Delusional deflationists right from the Bank of England MPC, through to the mainstream press for well over a year have pushed the mantra of ongoing debt deleveraging deflation everywhere, everywhere that is than appears in where it counts i.e. the actual INFLATION indices, where inflation is on the rise right across the world as illustrated in the UK by the persistent failure of the Bank of England to control UK inflation that remains above the banks CPI 3% upper limit. Even Greece that really is in an depression is experiencing inflation at above 3%, whilst the US CPI continues to inflate at a more modest 1.2% as summarised below for key world economies.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Economic Science and Theory: The Special, the Sublime, the Climax / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Pravda
The existence of the universe is something extraordinary!
The countless conjectures (mainly scientific) on the intrinsic characteristics of the universe and also the attempts to understand it have followed the history of mankind. This direction has been the role of Physical Science (prominently, but also chemistry) the "lady" of understanding the laws and forces that comprise the cosmos.
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010
U.S. Unable to Remain World Stronghold on Consumer Demand / Economics / US Economy
By: Pravda
American consumers are not in a hurry to spend, production remains weak, and conversations about the risk of deflation become more acute. It is likely that the U.S. government will prepare new incentive programs that will inflate national debt. However, the experts believe it will not affect the dollar in a negative way.
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Inflation versus Deflation Debate Part2 / Economics / Deflation
By: Fred_Sheehan
Inflation versus deflation discussions are the rule for columnists, economists and BubbleTV. This false distinction is potentially harmful for investors and shoppers who think they must decide between the two, then act. Inflation and deflation act contemporaneously. The relative movement of what is inflating and what is deflating (e.g., common stocks vs. gas, bonds vs. bread) influences, and possibly changes, the way we live.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Bloggers $300 License Tax, Headlines Sound the Alarm about Deeper Economic Problems / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Paul_Mladjenovic
The following three headlines are alarming symptoms of the economic insanity unfolding before our eyes:
- "Philly requiring bloggers to pay $300 for a business license"
- "LA unveils $578-Million school, costliest in the nation"
- "Record Number Of Americans Using Retirement Funds As Source Of Immediate Cash"
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Inflation Follows the Economic Stimulus Boom / Economics / Inflation
By: Richard_Daughty
Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital notes that the Federal Reserve, and the idiots like Paul Krugman who genuflect at the altar of Keynes, is not done with destroying the economy, but that “Bernanke and his supporters have said that their stimulus will be withdrawn as soon as the recovery takes hold in earnest.” Hahaha!
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Tuesday, August 24, 2010
The Importance of Business Start-ups and When Did Thrift Become Bad? / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
This weekend I wrote about the problems of being an entrepreneur in our Muddle Through Economy. I would like to follow that up with two brief (but somewhat controversial) essays on two aspects of starting up small businesses. The first, by Vivek Wadhwa, points out that start-ups account for all of the net new jobs, and is a summary of a paper from the Kaufman Foundation. (You can read the 12 page paper at
www.kauffman.org/..)
Monday, August 23, 2010
Why Hasn't the U.S. Economic Stimulus Been More Stimulative? / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Talk of the economy slipping back into a recession is rampant. The American Recovery and Reconstruction Act (ARRA) of 2009, aka the stimulus package of approximately $790 billion, was, as its title suggests, supposed to put the economy firmly into a recovery trajectory. But as Obama administration economic guru has said, the economy is having trouble reaching recession-escape velocity. Why hasn't the 2009 stimulus package been more stimulative?
Monday, August 23, 2010
Mainstream Economists Fail to Make Arrive at Logical Conclusions on U.S. Debt and Consumer Spending / Economics / US Economy
By: Peter_Schiff
In a CNBC debate last week, former Labor Secretary Robert Reich presented a set of contradictory beliefs that unfortunately reflect the conventional wisdom of modern economists. In a discussion with Wall Street Journal columnist Stephen Moore, Reich correctly and comprehensively listed the reasons why American consumers could spend so lavishly before the crash of 2008 and why they can no longer keep up the pace. But instead of making the logical conclusion that former levels of spending were unsustainable and that spending should now reflect current conditions, he advocated that government take on additional debt so that tapped out consumers can spend like they used to.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Hyperinflation is a Fiscal, not Monetary Phenomenon / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Months ago we wrote about the true causes of hyperinflation. We proceed to expand upon our views as we disagree with the views put forth by John Mauldin, Mike Shedlock and now Jim Rickards who all focus on velocity and/or bank lending as important causes of hyperinflation.
Monday, August 23, 2010
U.S. 3rd Quarter GDP Likely Negative, Recession Never Ended / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
While some people still think the odds of a double dip recession are close to zero, ironically, the only reason they may be right is if the first dip never ended.
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Monday, August 23, 2010
Obama's Economic Recovery Hits a Snag / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Mike_Whitney
Barack Obama's "Recovery Summer" tour has turned into a public relations disaster. The whole idea of claiming "mission accomplished" over the recession was wacky from the very beginning. It just shows how out of touch with reality Obama's economics team really is. These guys need to stop pouring over their own rosy projections and get out more. The recovery hasn't reached "escape velocity" as economics czar, Lawrence Summers boasted earlier in the year. That's baloney. The economy is headed for the shi**er and the prospects of a another slump loom larger than ever.
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Economic Hard Times Getting Harder / Economics / Great Depression II
By: Danny_Schechter
We know we live in hard times that are on the verge of getting harder with 500,000 new claims for unemployment last week, a recent record.
The stock market may be over for now as fear and panic drives small investors out. Big corporations hoard stashes of cash rather then hire workers. The D-Word (depression) is back in play.
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Sunday, August 22, 2010
U.S. Recession Never Ended, Where is My V Shaped Economic Recovery? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
How We Get Through
"Where Is My V-Shaped Recovery?"
We Have Met the Enemy, and He Is Us
So Where's the Good News?
This week I spoke to a small group of businessmen/entrepreneurs about the current economic environment, and after my presentation one asked me whether I didn't have any good news for them, with a kind of gallows humor laugh. And I tried. But upon reflection there is more I could have said, so this week's letter will be what I should have said to be a little more encouraging.
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