Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, February 09, 2017
According to “Unmassaged Data” the US Economy is Rolling Over / Economics / Recession 2017
By: Graham_Summers
Yet another “unmassaged” data point has shown that the US economy is rolling over.
If you’ve been reading me for a while you know that one of my biggest pet peeves is the fact that headline US economic data (GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, etc.) is massaged to the point of being fiction.
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Tuesday, February 07, 2017
Bad News For Stock Bulls.. the US is Sliding Into Recession / Economics / Recession 2017
By: Graham_Summers
While the financial media was applauding last week’s jobs number, those of us who actually look into the details can tell you that the report was complete fiction.
The headline number of 227,000 was largely crafted through seasonal adjustments, NOT actual job creation. At a minimum 170,000 of those jobs were created in an excel spreadsheet by bean counters, NOT by businesses hiring.
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Monday, February 06, 2017
Why the Fed Gets Economics Wrong / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
Economics (in general) is populated at its core by a lot of bad ideas. And these bad ideas have come to be accepted as the correct interpretation of how the economy functions and thus have become the basis for economic policy. This news shouldn’t come as a shock since I’ve written about this many times over the years in Thoughts from the Frontline.
Economics is an enormously useful tool for those of us who are trying to understand business and investments and government policy. But to paraphrase Dirty Harry, “An economist has to know his limitations.”
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Monday, February 06, 2017
A Non-Existent US Economic Recovery! / Economics / US Economy
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Where is this economic boom that Former President Obama and his administration had taken so much credit for?
The Obama Administration, with the assistance of the Federal Reserve and Company, deliberately kept the U.S. economy from creating any growth at all. The money that flowed from the Federal Reserve, over the last 8 years, had a direct pipeline that flowed only into Wall Street Investment Banks. The American people were sold this false bill of sale that “Quantitative Easing” was going to make lending money to “Main Street America” easier to access. They promised that there would be a boost in hiring which would, in turn, increase aggregate demand and thereby reflect a newly stimulated economic growth!
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Monday, February 06, 2017
Inflation – What It Is, What It Isn’t, And Who’s Responsible For It / Economics / Inflation
By: Kelsey_Williams
Inflation is the debasement of money by the government. PERIOD.
It is NOT a general increase in the level of prices for goods and services.
The above statements are critical to an understanding and correct interpretation of events which are happening today – or expected to happen – that are casually attributable to inflation. So, let’s go one step further.
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Friday, February 03, 2017
Shocking Fact in Today's US Jobs Report: Employment Stalls / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
Initial Reaction
Today's employment report shows a robust increase of 227,000 jobs. The good news stops there. The rest of the report was horrific.
The big news is in employment where the three-month trend worsened.
In the last three months, employment has only risen by a grand total of 33,000. Employment in January declined by 30,000. For the entire year, employment rose by only 1,548,000. The average increase from a year ago is only 129,000 per month.
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Friday, February 03, 2017
Economic Depression, Stagflation, Stag-Depress-Flation / Economics / Great Depression II
By: DeviantInvestor
The United States suffered through a deflationary depression in the 1930s. Stock prices crashed, currency in circulation declined, commodity and real estate prices fell hard and human misery prevailed.
President Roosevelt revalued gold from $20.67 to $35.00 per ounce in 1933 – a substantial devaluation of the dollar. Make-work and government spending programs were implemented. War followed the depression.
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Wednesday, February 01, 2017
He'll Bring Them Inflation, and They Will Love Him for It / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_Tanashian
I used to make fun of the FOMC rate hike "decision" language in the mainstream media because under the Obama administration and its economic policies overseen by the Fed's monetary policy, there really was no decision, was there? It was ZIRP-eternity, interrupted by a lone and token rate hike in December 2015 (the Dec. 2016 hike does not count because the transition to a new administration and policy regime was already known; in effect, the Fed has already made its first hike under Trump).
Saturday, January 28, 2017
Modern Delusions, Japan Thinks It Can Balance Its Budget / Economics / Japan Economy
By: John_Rubino
A recurring problem for most developed-world governments is explaining why last year’s plan didn’t work while convincing voters that this year’s new and improved plan will do the trick. This is especially tough when the new plan is pretty much the same as the old one and therefore just as likely to fail.
Friday, January 27, 2017
BEA Estimates US 4th Quarter 2016 GDP at 1.87% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their first (preliminary) estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US economic growth rate was +1.87%, down by nearly half (-1.66%) from the prior quarter.
The quarter to quarter decline in the headline growth rate came from a number of sources: the growth of consumer spending on services was more than halved (down -0.68%), exports went into contraction (off a dramatic -1.69%) and imports were down yet another -0.86%. Partially offsetting those declines were upticks in consumer spending on goods (up +0.34%), and increases in the growth rate for commercial fixed investment (+0.65%) and inventories (+0.51%).
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Thursday, January 26, 2017
Inflation: Here's What the Wrong-Way Bet Looks Like / Economics / Inflation
By: EWI
Inflation: Here's What the Wrong-Way Bet Looks Like
Chart of the Day
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Thursday, January 26, 2017
UK Economy Post BrExit Boom! Academic and Mainstream Press Clueless Reporting Continues / Economics / UK Economy
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Its now over six months since the establishment elite prophesied a post BrExit economic collapse apocalypse, a message that clueless academics have continued to regurgitate across the mainstream press for the duration since. However, the most recent economic data continues to paint the exact opposite picture as GDP for the last 3 months of 2016 came in at a very healthy 0.6%. Which in itself followed 0.6% for the preceding quarter, a time when the UK economy was supposed to be in a state of economic collapse! A collapse that has FAILED to materialise! Instead the UK is probably the worlds fastest growing developed economy.
Wednesday, January 25, 2017
We Could See US Job Creation Fall off the Cliffs in the Months Ahead / Economics / Employment
By: Harry_Dent
Let’s do a quick thought experiment…Imagine you’ve got two people in the workforce. Let’s say one is 40 and the other 65.
When both are gainfully employed, the unemployment rate is 0%. We’re enjoying full employment within the labor pool.
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Monday, January 23, 2017
Trumping World Trade / Economics / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
After the inauguration, President Trump has begun to reset the White House trade policies. But the consequences of “America First” stance in world trade are wrought with threats.
Recently, President Xi Jinping gave a strong speech about the need for more inclusive globalization at Davos. World trade is a case in point.
Monday, January 23, 2017
Protection Will Lead to Great Prosperity / Economics / Protectionism
By: Gary_Tanashian
After being mostly off the grid on Friday, I listened to the Trump inauguration speech on Saturday morning. While I have lots of thoughts and opinions, I want to focus on an item where I am qualified; namely my former area of expertise as someone who was in essence told by the media over and over again "you don't exist", while the consumerist, financialized and globalized economy flourished. By "you" I of course mean me, an owner of a small American manufacturing business. My area of focus from the speech...
Saturday, January 21, 2017
AI and Robotics - We Are All Low-Skilled Workers Now / Economics / Robotics
By: John_Mauldin
BY PATRICK WATSON : The news headlines after last week’s jobs report proved it again: Life is hard (and getting harder) for low-skilled workers. Illegal immigrants take their service industry jobs. Robots take their manufacturing industry jobs.
According to the media, many low-skilled workers have simply given up. They’re dropping out of the labor force, going on welfare, overdosing on drugs. Their lives are terrible, and everyone wants to help.
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Friday, January 20, 2017
Real Leadership Requires True Globalization / Economics / Global Economy
By: Dan_Steinbock
After 2008, world trade, investment and migration have come to a standstill. What the world requires is responsible leadership, which rests on inclusive globalization.
During his first state visit to Switzerland and the World Economic Forum (WEF), President Xi Jinping hoped to inject a positive impetus for the recovery of the world economy.
Amidst rising economic uncertainty and market volatility, Xi offered China's vision on economic growth and free trade in a global economy overshadowed by protectionism.
Monday, January 16, 2017
The US Economy Could Turn Around in 2017—Or Crash / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
Markets have rallied since November on the expectation that Trump and the Republicans will quickly enact a growth-oriented economic agenda—including tax cuts, regulatory relief, and targeted economic stimulus projects.
As I talk to people involved in the transition, I am gaining more confidence that a good part of that agenda will actually be realized. It’s clear to me that the right people want it to happen, at least.
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Saturday, January 14, 2017
It’s Confirmed, the US is Officially in Recession / Economics / Recession 2017
By: Graham_Summers
The US is officially in a recession.
This won’t show up in the “official” data… because the official data is fiction. GDP numbers might as well be in a Harry Potter novel, they’re that inaccurate and ridiculous.
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Wednesday, January 11, 2017
10 Potential Black Swans and Opportunities for the US Economy in 2017 / Economics / US Economy
By: John_Mauldin
We’ve reached that wonderful time of year when financial pundits pull out their forecaster hats and take a crack at the future. This time the exercise is particularly interesting because we’re at several turning points. Any one of them could remake the entire year overnight.
I should probably say up front that I am actually somewhat optimistic about 2017—optimistic, meaning I think we will Muddle Through—but that’s a lot better outcome than I was expecting five months ago. However, midcourse corrections may be warranted.
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