Monday, February 27, 2017

A Global Eurodollar Shortage / Currencies / Euro

By: Gordon_T_Long

The World Bank just released a telling report entitled "Trade Developments in 2016: Policy Uncertainty Weighs on World Trade". Though they deflect the problems in global trade to areas such as excessive regulatory initiatives and policy uncertainty (which is true), what is to be found buried in the appendix are the two un-annotated charts below. I suspect the World Bank didn't compare them directly (they are shown separately) because it would cast a spotlight on an even larger political 'football'.

How does global trade ship ~10% more trade volume but receive ~12% less revenue over a 5 year period? The answer has traditionally been significant improvements in productivity. However, the productivity numbers by country don't even come close to supporting such a premise.

Monday, February 27, 2017

Are UK Savings Interest Rates Finally Starting to Rise? Best Cash ISA 2017 / Personal_Finance / ISA's

By: Nadeem_Walayat

According to some analysts there are emerging signs of life in the UK savings markets, so as the tax year draws to a close I take a look at if the Cash ISA market is finally starting to offer some hope to Britain's savers after a near 5 years of a catastrophic downward death spiral in interest rates, one of being ripped off by the tax payer bailed out banking crime syndicate that for the duration has continued to bank bonuses on artificial profits engineered by the Bank of England in an attempt at recapitalisng the bankrupt banks all whilst the savers continue to suffer and pay the price in terms of loss of purchasing power of savings by means of sub inflation interest rates.

Monday, February 27, 2017

Stock Market Something's Gotta' Give / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Ed_Carlson

The next confluence of Fibonacci retracements is at 2,382 and is our price target for SPX but last Friday was a 21-day cycle high so something's gotta give here. A 6mo cycle high was due last week, too.

Lindsay's 107 day interval points to a tradable high no later than today.

Monday, February 27, 2017

Could Trump's Economic Policies Propel Hated Stocks Bull Market Even Higher / Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market

By: Sol_Palha

"I add this, that rational ability without education has more often raised a man to glory and virtue, than education without natural ability." Marcus T. Cicero

Before we get into the meat of this article, we would like to state at the onset that this article is not politically orientated. This election has probably been more divisive than any other election in U.S history. There are those who love Trump and those who detest him. Our views are based on market trends and not politics. Before the election results came in, we went on record to state that a Trump win would from an investing perspective prove to be a great buying opportunity and the masses would panic and dump their shares. We took the same stance on Brexit, and as they say, the rest is history.

Monday, February 27, 2017

US Dollar Rolling Over / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Gary_Savage

A close below the 10 DMA on the US Dollar would be the “second step” in the confirmation that its daily cycle is rolling over and starting the next leg down in the intermediate decline. The first confirmation was the initial break of the daily cycle up trend line.

Monday, February 27, 2017

Stock Market Breakout or Breakdown? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

SPX closed at the trading channel trendline on Friday without making a new high. In that context, it may be viewed as a possible wave (ii). However, it’s not over until it’s over. The SPX futures made a higher high in overnight trading. They are currently negative, but not so much as to proclaim victory for the bears. A decline beneath Friday’s low at 2352.87 would break the upward bias. Otherwise a breakout appears that it may be the final Wave c of (v) of [c].

Monday, February 27, 2017

Peak American Wealth – Revisited / Politics / Social Issues

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Let’s see. On February 18, I wrote an essay called “Not Nearly Enough Growth To Keep Growing”, in which I said “..the Automatic Earth has said for many years that the peak of our wealth was sometime in the 1970’s or even late 1960’s”.

That provoked a wonderfully written reaction from long-time Automatic Earth reader Ken Latta, which I published on February 23 as “When Was America’s Peak Wealth?”. Ken put peak wealth sometime in the late ’50s to early 60’s. As I said then, I really liked his definition of ‘wealth’ as being “best measured by the capacity to be utterly wasteful”. The article spawned a series of nice comments, for some reason largely by people in his age bracket (Ken’s 73).

Monday, February 27, 2017

Oscars Debacle – Movies More Costly As US Dollar Devalued / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: GoldCore

• Cost of Best Picture winners show very significant devaluation of the dollar
• Average cost to make an Oscar winning film is over $43 million – in gold terms, this is over 106,000 ounces
• Four $15 million films show nearly 100% difference when priced in gold ounces
• Oscar fiasco was courtesy of error by accountants PWC
• Whilst the price of the films remained the same, the cost in gold ounces fell from 11.53% of the cost to make the Departed, in 2009 to just 6.4% in 2012
• In an error prone, irrational and volatile world, gold retains value over time …

Monday, February 27, 2017

Stock Market Short-Term Uncertainty As Stocks Fluctuate Along New Record High / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,410, and profit target at 2,200, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is now bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

Monday, February 27, 2017

Top Fixed Rate Savings Bond Highest in 10 months / Personal_Finance / Saving Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

Challenger banks are causing a storm in the fixed rate bond market, with especially the highest rates in the market seeing an increase. The top one-year fixed rate bond has increased to 2.00%, up by 0.60% since January and the first time in 10 months a one-year fixed rate has stood at 2.00% or higher.

Monday, February 27, 2017

Reasons Why Investors Should Avoid Gold ETFs / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2017

By: John_Mauldin

BY STEPHEN MCBRIDE : Gold may have ended 2016 on a negative note, but the yellow metal is now up 7% since January. A big contributor to its rise is the large inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (gold ETFs). In 2016, inflows into gold ETFs were the second highest on record and accounted for 34% of total investment demand.

With inflows showing continued strength in 2017, why should investors avoid gold ETFs?

Monday, February 27, 2017

The Border Adjustment Tax Will Make The Jobs Problem Worse / Politics / US Politics

By: John_Mauldin

Under the border adjustment tax (BAT) plan, imports will be penalized and exports rewarded… which theoretically, in a perfect world without pushback, would leave our economy nicely balanced and undisrupted.

But I doubt it will happen that way, because the importers and exporters are not the same businesses. I’ve written extensively about this topic in my three part series, "Tax Reform: The Good, the Bad, and the Really Ugly" in Thoughts from the Frontline. (subscribe here for free.)

Monday, February 27, 2017

Dow vs Precious Metals : Where’s The Beef ? Where’s the Bull ? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2017

By: Rambus_Chartology

Before we look at some precious metals stocks I would like to show you a couple of charts which will help explain why I didn’t participate in this last rally in the precious metals stocks that started in December of last year. It’s not that I didn’t want to, it’s just the evidence shows that the $INDU, which I’m going to use as a proxy for the rest of the stock markets, is in a true bull market vs the precious metals stocks. As I have often said, ” you always want to trade in a bull market vs a bear market because it will save you from a bad trade if you enter it at the wrong time. If you enter into a long trade in a bear market it will be unforgiving and can take you to the cleaners before you know what hit you.”

Sunday, February 26, 2017

Stock Market Sentiment at ‘Extreme Greed’ / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  Uptrend continues.

SPX Intermediate trend:  A minor reversal at 2300 has been followed by a resumption of the uptrend targeting the 2400 area.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Sunday, February 26, 2017

Iran Holds Large Scale Naval Exercises / Politics / Iran

By: Stephen_Lendman

Iran is threatened by Israel and America’s regional military presence. In areas around the Persian Gulf, it has bases in every country except Iran - plus numerous others in North Africa and Central Asia.

Its actions destabilized much of the Middle East. It supports the region’s worst despots.

The late Chalmers Johnson said “the United States has been inexorably acquiring permanent military enclaves whose sole purpose appears to be the domination of one of the most strategically important areas of the world.”

Sunday, February 26, 2017

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - God and Mammon and Power / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2017

By: Jesse

"The world is ours, we are its lords, and ours it shall remain. As for the host of labor, it has been in the dirt since history began, and I read history aright. And in the dirt it shall remain so long as I and mine and those that come after us have the power.

There is the word. It is the king of words— Power. Not God, not Mammon, but Power. Pour it over your tongue till it tingles with it. Power.”

Jack London, The Iron Heel

Sunday, February 26, 2017

Do Gold Miners Need to Lead the Metals? / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks 2017

By: Gary_Savage

It’s a common misconception that miners always lead the metals sector. As you can see in this chart the miners often produce false signals.

Sunday, February 26, 2017

Trump’s Top Econ Guy Just ANNIHILATED the Stock Market’s Fantasy / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Graham_Summers

The single biggest story this morning is Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin pouring ice cold water on the market’s mania.

First and foremost, Mnunchin stated point blank that the Trump administration HOPES to implement tax reform by August.

Sunday, February 26, 2017

Trump Relinquishes Control of Foreign Policy / Politics / US Politics

By: Mike_Whitney

The war party is back in power and the odds of normal relations with Russia have dropped to zero.

The appointment of Army Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster to the position of national security adviser indicates that Trump has done an about-face on his most critical foreign policy issue, normalizing relations with Russia. General Michael Flynn– who recently stepped down from the post following allegations of lying to Vice President Mike Pence –was the main proponent of easing tensions with Moscow which is a position that had been enthusiastically embraced by President Donald Trump. But McMaster does not support normalizing relations with Russia, in fact,  McMaster sees Russia as a “hostile revisionist power” that “annex(es) territory, intimidates our allies, develops nuclear weapons, and uses proxies under the cover of modernized conventional militaries.” So, what’s going on? Why has Trump put a Moscow-hating hawk like McMaster in a position where he’ll be able to intensify the pressure on Russia, increase the provocations and, very likely, trigger a conflagration between the two nuclear-armed superpowers?

Sunday, February 26, 2017

[Gratis] "Dark Money" Secrets Revealed! / Stock-Markets / Trading Systems

By: Submissions