Friday, March 19, 2021
ECB Accelerates Its Asset Purchases. Gold Needs Fed to Follow Suit / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The ECB accelerated its asset purchases, but unless the Fed follows suit, gold may continue its bearish trend.On Thursday (Mar. 11), the European Central Bank decided to accelerate its asset buying under the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program :
Based on a joint assessment of financing conditions and the inflation outlook, the Governing Council expects purchases under the PEPP over the next quarter to be conducted at a significantly higher pace than during the first months of this year.
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Thursday, March 18, 2021
Dow Stock Market Long-term Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FED Balance Sheet
Not to forget the inflation mega-trend courtesy of rampant central bank money printing to monetize government debt coupled with the fake inflation indices. So you really think US inflation is just 1%? it's more like 6%! Anyway the money printing binge now totals $7.4 trillion, up from $4 trillion at the start of 2020.
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Thursday, March 18, 2021
Stock Bulls Run – Will Gold Ones Too? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Resting on Friday, surging on Monday. Feeble downswing attempt defeated right after the open, and then just bullish price action. Retail data today, and another FOMC meeting tomorrow – I view the former as not too likely to spoil today‘s market action. About the latter, remembering the latest reactions to Powell pronouncements, I look for the markets to be affected to a much greater degree.
Don‘t look for material surprises, or be spooked by bets on the Fed tightening through dot plot adjustment or other forward guidance tools.I expect no change from what I wrote yesterday:
(…) Who could be surprised, given the modern monetary theory ruling the economic landscape? The Fed amply accomodative, one $1.9T stimulus bill just in, and a $2T infrastructure one in the making. That‘s after the prior Trump stimulus, and who would have forgotten how it all started in April 2020? The old congressional saying „a billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you‘re talking real money“, needs updating.
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Thursday, March 18, 2021
Are The US Stock Markets Sending A Warning Sign? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Chris_Vermeulen
After an incredible rally phase that initiated just one day before the US elections in November 2020, we’ve seen certain sectors rally extensively. Are the markets starting to warn us that this rally phase may be stalling? We noticed very early that some of the strongest sectors appear to be moderately weaker on the first day of trading this week. Is it because of Triple-Witching this week (Friday, March 19, 2021)? Or is it because the Treasury Yields continue to move slowly higher? What’s really happening right now and should traders/investors be cautious?
The following XLF Weekly chart shows how the Financial sector rallied above the upper YELLOW price channel, which was set from the 2018 and pre COVID-19 2020 highs. Early 2021 was very good for the financial sector overall, we saw a 40%+ rally in this over just 6 months on expectations that the US economy would transition into a growth phase as the new COVID vaccines are introduced.
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Thursday, March 18, 2021
Stock Market March Rally Was Good - April Will Be Even Better / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Avi_Gilburt
Oftentimes, I will peruse the articles being published on Seeking Alpha to gain a perspective as to whether others “in the know” are bearish or bullish, and why. But, the “why” aspect is the most entertaining to me.
When I decide to click on an article discussing the market, I find that the article most often explains what the market has done either yesterday or the week before. Then it goes into a discussion of the reasons the market did what it did. In other words, most articles are primarily concerned with trying to explain the past action of the market. But, here is the kicker. They then attempt to extrapolate the reasons of the past into the action of the future. This is where most fail.
First, one is only assuming they have an understanding as to why a market dropped or rallied in the past week. Simply because there is an event or news item that occurred during that week, they superficially assume that it caused the market move we experienced.
What is truly absurd is when the exact opposite event or news item is reported, and the market continues in the same path as before, they then have the gall to explain to us that this exact opposite event or new item caused the market to continue to rally.
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Thursday, March 18, 2021
The 50th Anniversary of Nixon’s Colossal Gold Standard Error / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Richard_Mills
It seems fitting that the year we are expecting to see an unprecedented rise in US government spending and money-printing to spur an economic recovery, marks the 50th anniversary of the end of the gold standard.
Done at the time to fight an economic crisis, we are still feeling the effects of this disastrous decision, five decades on.
In this article, we explain why President Nixon did what he did, and why every promise that unshackling the US government from the requirement of maintaining the dollar’s value in terms of gold would mean for the United States, has been broken.
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Wednesday, March 17, 2021
Dow Stock Seasonal and Presidential Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, then higher into late April the correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that tends to resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears crow their loudest about the market having topped.
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Wednesday, March 17, 2021
Gold and Stock Bulls Are Getting Ready / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Now that stocks closed at new all time highs, the correction is officially over. And what little rest stock bulls could claim last week, arrived on Friday. Yet, the bull is strong enough to defend the 3,900 zone, and charge higher the same day.
Who could be surprised, given the modern monetary theory ruling the economic landscape? The Fed amply accomodative, one $1.9T stimulus bill just in, and a $2T infrastructure one in the making. That‘s after the prior Trump stimulus, and who would have forgotten how it all started in April 2020? The old congressional saying „a billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you‘re talking real money“, needs updating.
Stocks are readying another upswing as the volatility index is approaching 20 again, and the put/call ratio shows complacent readings. The sectoral examination supports higher highs as tech has reversed intraday losses, closing half of the opening bearish gap. Value stocks naturally powered to new highs, with industrials, energy and financial performing best. Real estate keeps showing remarkable momentum, and has been among the best performers off correction‘s lows.
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Wednesday, March 17, 2021
Is Stock Market Uptrend Already Resuming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX Long-term trend: There is some evidence that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009 and which could continue into the first half of 2021 before major cycles take over and it comes to an end..
SPX Intermediate trend: SPX may have completed a phase of its intermediate uptrend and is consolidating
Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. They are important adjuncts to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which determine longer market trends.
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Wednesday, March 17, 2021
US Dollar Debasement Accelerates with Biden Bailout / Currencies / US Dollar
By: MoneyMetals
As Washington prepares to pump another $1.9 trillion in stimulus into the economy, asset prices are lifting. From food to housing to equities to precious metals, inflationary pressures are being felt in all markets this week.
Investors can thank politicians and their enablers at the Federal Reserve. On Thursday, President Joe Biden signed the massive $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package into law.
Direct payments of $1,400 will soon be hitting Americans bank accounts. And hundreds of billions of dollars will be deployed to bail out state and local governments. Of course, funding for various other programs unrelated to COVID losses was inserted into the legislation as well. As well as a remarkable federal ban on states enacting net tax cuts.
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Wednesday, March 17, 2021
Copper Shortage Narrative Goes Mainstream / Commodities / Copper
By: Richard_Mills
Mainstream media and the large mining companies are finally catching on to what we at AOTH have been saying for the past two years: the copper market is heading for a severe supply shortage due to a perfect storm of under-exploration/ lack of discovery of new deposits, clashing with a huge increase in demand due to electrification and decarbonization.
Dramatic price rise
Copper is trading over $4.00 a pound this year on rapidly tightening physical markets, rebounding economic growth especially in China, the top metals consumer, and the expectation that the era of low inflation in key economies may soon be over.
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Wednesday, March 17, 2021
Bitcoin: Speculative Investment or Value Asset? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
Bitcoin joined the trillion-dollar market club on February 19, 2021, as the price of the cryptocurrency crossed the $56,000 mark. The world’s most popular cryptocurrency soared 1,000% over the past year, after struggling to break out of the $15,000 level throughout 2019, and the better part of 2020.
The rising prices of bitcoins have launched several discussions regarding the efficacy and sustainability of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoins in particular, as the deregulated currency is associated with a copious number of risks. There are a number of bitcoin margin trading exchanges as well that are providing leverage to users given the rising popularity of digital currencies.
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Tuesday, March 16, 2021
New York Markets Have Obliterated Silver Prices over Time / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: MoneyMetals
Many investors sense that the country, and the world, has drifted into uncharted territory.
The last year has been extraordinary. There have been COVID lockdowns, a disputed presidential election, and multi-trillion-dollar federal deficits and bailouts. The Federal Reserve has injected more money into markets than ever before.
This insanity showed up in the physical gold and silver markets.
Bullion dealers have spent much of the past year fighting to get inventory, because investment demand for coins, bars, and rounds has never been higher.
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Tuesday, March 16, 2021
Is Dollar’s Weakness Giving Way to Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Since its peak in the spring of 2020, the U.S. dollar index has lost almost 12 percent, and it could decline even further, thus supporting gold prices.There is a weakness in the U.S. dollar. Let’s start off by taking a look at the chart below. As you can see, the broad trade-weighted dollar index has been declining recently. Since its peak in late March 2020, the greenback has lost almost 12 percent.
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Tuesday, March 16, 2021
We Need Infrastructure Spending to Avoid Another Texas-Sized Mess / Economics / Infrastructure
By: John_Mauldin
I just talked with one of the most successful hedge fund managers in the country (in terms of returns over the last four years). He will not allow me to use his name. But I can tell you he is a raging bull.
He believes the stimulus that we already had plus what we will get—coupled with a major infrastructure bill, plus extraordinarily easy monetary policy, combined with significant new technology innovations—adds up to a new bull market.
This is someone with 5X returns over the last four years with a very diverse portfolio. So it could pay to pay attention.
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Tuesday, March 16, 2021
Simple Tips That Will Help You Become Smarter In Handling Your Loans / Personal_Finance / Debt & Loans
By: Steve_Barker
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Monday, March 15, 2021
Delivery and Unboxing Custom Built Scan Computers 3SX PC 2021 - Scan.co.uk Review (3) / Personal_Finance / Computing
By: HGR
The day has finally arrived when Scan computers custom build PC has been delivered after 2 month wait. Find out exactly what you get in the box when you order a custom built computer from scan computers in 2021, for instance do you get your rtx 3080 GPU and 5950x CPU boxes or not, after all you did pay over £800 just for the GPU and then another near £800 for the CPU, find out now!
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Monday, March 15, 2021
How the EUR/USD Affects Gold Miners; Which ETF Will Suffer More? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021
By: P_Radomski_CFA
It’s all connected. The Eurozone’s underperformance boosts the USD, thus placing pressure on gold and the ETFs. So, which ETFs will suffer most?
A large part of yesterday’s free version of the analysis focused on the Eurozone’s economic outlook and how it affects the precious metals. We’ll eventually get to Europe again later in today’s analysis, but let’s first examine gold related ETFs, namely the GDX and GDXJ. How low can they go? That will depend on the general moves in the stock market.
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Monday, March 15, 2021
Sweet Child O' Mine 2021 Post Pandemic Hope Captain Fantastic Cover / Politics / Coronavirus 2021
By: Anika_Walayat
This is our hoping for a Post Pandemic cover of Guns N' Roses Sweet Child O' Mine Captain Fantastic.
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Monday, March 15, 2021
Resting Stock Bulls and Gold Question Mark / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2021
By: Monica_Kingsley
Stock bulls went right for all time highs yesterday, clearing the 3,900 threshold in this correction – one that is in its very late innings indeed. But the preceding upswing has been sharp, and not all the internals support such a swift recovery, which is why I am still looking for consolidation to strike at any moment.
We might be actually experiencing such a daily one right now, as today‘s premarket session has sent S&P 500 futures a few dozen points down. The big picture is though one of of the stock market getting used to rising rates, which are rising in reflection of the economic growth. But what about the snapback short-term rally in long-term Treasuries?
It‘s not materializing as the instrument went down again yesterday – unconvincingly bobbing above recent lows. The defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities, reversed yesterday (at a time when technology rose), sending a warning that we‘re about to see higher rates again. Probably not happening as fast as through Feb, but still. Let‘s bring up my recent perspective on high rates, what they are exactly:
(…) the „high rates“ we‘re experiencing currently, do not compare to the early 1980s, which underscores the fragility of the current monetary order. The Fed knows that, and it has been evident in the long preparatory period and baby steps in the prior rate raising and balance sheet shrinking cycle.
The market will see through this, and the central bank would be forced to move to bring long-term rates down through yield curve control or a twist program, which would break the dollar, drive emerging markets, and not exactly control inflation – real rates would drop like a stone in such a scenario, turning around gold profoundly.
But the market knows the Fed isn‘t getting ready to really do anything more than it does right now. Gold rebounded on Tuesday, and the rally took it above $1,730 but the daily reversal is concerning. As I wrote yesterday in the title, the gold bulls can‘t rest – but they are resting, and prices are back at the lower end of the $1,720 volume profile.
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