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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Economics

Saturday, November 04, 2023

A Recession is Brewing / Economics / Recession 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A reminder that a recession is brewing as illustrated by the US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions analysis (Stock Market Gasping to Reach 4000 Ahead of Earnings Season, Dow New All Time High 2023?)

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Commodities

Saturday, November 04, 2023

Gold Stocks Lagging / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks are lagging gold’s strong young upleg, their gains falling behind.  Their striking performance gap is undermining gold-stock sentiment, leaving traders even warier of this sector.  While definitely vexing, this anomaly has only arisen over the past couple weeks.  Gold stocks’ precedent during past major gold uplegs implies this will unwind soon, with miners surging fast to catch up with their metal.

Gold has been blasting higher on balance for a month now, confirming a new major upleg is underway.  While the sparking catalyst was certainly geopolitical, gold’s upside since has been fueled by the normal sequential buying pattern driving all major uplegs.  That’s stage-one gold-futures short-covering buying, then larger stage-two gold-futures long buying, then ultimately vast stage-three investment buying returning.

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Companies

Saturday, November 04, 2023

Why AI Will Eat the World / Companies / AI

By: Stephen_McBride

US stocks have been treading water lately… but the big news is in bitcoin (BTC).

It’s on fire, surging to $35,000—a price not seen in a year and a half.

Bitcoin has now doubled this year and is easily the best-performing major investment in the world:

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Politics

Saturday, November 04, 2023

Rise of US Military Aid, Fall of Israeli Labor Party / Politics / Israel

By: Dan_Steinbock

The Nightmare after 50 Years of Failed Military Policies

Israeli occupation and far-right settlers are subverting Israeli democracy. The rise of US military aid has resulted in the fall of the Israeli Labor Party. Meanwhile, neoliberal policies are polarizing the economy, politics and society.

Since the 1970s, the concern of the Israeli peace activists was that if the Messianic far-right Jewish settlers, many of whom came from the US, would be permitted to create a substantial de facto presence, it would be legitimized over time by de jure measures.

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Commodities

Saturday, November 04, 2023

Gold Holds Firms as World Braces for Financial Turmoil, War / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: MoneyMetals

As the Federal Reserve puts a hold on interest rates, investors have to ask themselves whether the elevated inflation rate is also on hold.

The Fed’s preferred measure of so-called “core” inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, most recently came in at 3.7%. Despite having fallen substantially since last year’s peak, the official inflation rate has yet to approach the Fed’s 2% target.
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Economics

Friday, November 03, 2023

FED Loads of Money! / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

S&P Measuring Move

Rally from 4333 to 4540 is 207 points, 4333 - 207 points = 4126. Not a forecast rather another piece of the puzzle eyeballing sub 4200, and my long standing objective of 4150 as being probable.

So stock market eyes sub 4200, and eying achieving 4150 with possibility of overshoot to just under 4100 over the next 4 to 6 weeks. Therefore the market is primed to snap back inline with my trend forecast by means of taking a significant tumble over the coming weeks where we can all look for catalysts for but the forecast remains blind to all that has transpired since it was posted 10 months ago!

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Interest-Rates

Friday, November 03, 2023

US Bond Market Chaos to Increase by March 2024 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

The major issue with the bond market right now is the overwhelming amount of bond issuance combined with the notable absence of the usual buyers. In other words, the illiquidity is already causing U.S. sovereign debt to trade like a microcap penny stock. This dysfunctional trading environment should become exponentially worse by the end of Q1 2024.

The U.S. national debt is now $33.5T, and the interest on that debt is $712b so far this year. That interest expense is set to double over the next few years as our debt is rolling over at much higher interest rates. Interest payments equal to 17% of all Federal revenue and should easily jump to 35% of all income very soon. The deficits will be much greater when the recession arrives, as the automatic economic stabilizers kick in, just as revenue also collapses. Entitlements and debt service payments will equal 100% of all revenue by 2040 at the very latest. At that point, there will be no room for any other government spending. Our bond market is fracturing, and it is becoming an existential crisis for our financial system. What else would you expect when the nation’s annual deficit is 45% of our revenue, and that is adding on each year to the national debt, which is an incredible 771% of annual federal income!
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Commodities

Friday, November 03, 2023

Sad Silver Price Lags Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023

By: Submissions

With the economic backdrop continuing to deteriorate, silver’s bull case has become increasingly fragile.

Ominous Signs Ahead

While silver has bounced off its recent lows, the white metal continues to underperform gold. And when volatile areas of the precious metals market showcase weakness (silver and mining stocks) it’s often an ominous sign for the entire sector. 

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 02, 2023

Stock Market US Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Seem's like everyone's woken upto the importance of the US presidential election cycle. However as is the case with the seasonal pattern it is not the holy grail, has a similar 75% hit rate to the all years seasonal pattern where the real value is when one puts both together. In which respect confirms September should end DOWN, October higher whilst November and December could switch places, i.e a weak November would imply a strong December and visa versa.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 02, 2023

Stock Market Seasonal Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The seasonal pattern suggested that after a pause in Feb the stock market should trend higher into early May for a weak May before correcting into late June follower by a strong July rally into Mid August before ending flat on the month, then followed by a weak September likely into early October that resolves in a rally into late December.

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Companies

Thursday, November 02, 2023

You’re Being Lied to About AI Stocks Investing / Companies / Investing 2023

By: Stephen_McBride

Sam Walton’s first boss told him, “Maybe you’re just not cut out for retail.”

Haha. You know the punchline. Sam went on to build a retailer you might have heard of: Walmart (WMT).

Yep, Walmart started with one determined 44-year-old man.

And thanks to the magic of the stock market—which lets us piggyback on exceptional guys like Sam—investors got rich too.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, November 02, 2023

Stocks Are In a Rally Mode – Is This Just a Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Paul_Rejczak

S&P 500 went closer to 4,300 level again – will the uptrend resume?

The S&P 500 index gained 1.05% on Wednesday as it got back above the 4,200 level following FOMC monetary policy release. Recently the market kept selling-off on geopolitical uncertainty, strong U.S. dollar, among other factors. Last Friday’s low was at 4,103.78 and it was the lowest since May 12. Yesterday’s daily high was at 4,245.64.

In early October stocks were rallying from their local lows along 4,220 level and on October 17 the index reached a local high of 4,394. There’s still a lot of uncertainty about monetary policy, economic growth and geopolitics.

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Companies

Thursday, November 02, 2023

10 Tips To Consider Before Investing In A Tech Company / Companies / Tech Stocks

By: Mark_Adan

Investing in a tech company can be a lucrative venture in the rapidly evolving world of technology. However, it is crucial to approach such investments with a discerning and analytical mindset. By considering a comprehensive set of factors, investors can maximize their chances of success.
This article highlights ten essential tips to evaluate before investing in a tech company, ranging from assessing financial health and management capabilities to analyzing market trends and intellectual property.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 29, 2023

Stock Market Ready to Tumble Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Your analyst back from scam central (Istanbul), tourists need to factor in a getting scammed tax when visiting. Since my last article the S&P hit a low of 4333 followed by an ABC rally to a swing high of 4533, whilst a consolidation of the advance was expected, still this was more powerful than how I imagined it would play out ahead of targeting sub 4200 by Mid October and thus presents a significant deviation against my original trend forecast of some 11 months go.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 29, 2023

The Report that Will Change the Way You View the Markets Forever! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023

By: EWI

Dear Reader,

When investors and traders first discover the Elliott Wave Principle, they're often most impressed by its ability to predict where a market will head next.

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Politics

Sunday, October 29, 2023

Are Zionist Israelis Nazis? Gaza Palestinian Genocide 2023 / Politics / Palestine

By: N_Walayat

Are Israeli Nazis? Watch this video and make up your own minds. For if anyone said what these Israeli's and their Zionist supporters hate speach about the palestinains against Jews then they would rightly be arrested. But somehow it is okay for Zionists to spread hate speach, incite others to violence, call for the death of all palestinians. That appears to be okay with the authorities given that the Zionists OWN the western political parties.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, October 28, 2023

The Bond Trade / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As expected the four bond funds have been gravitating towards bear market lows and thus offering an opp to accumulate, I am now approx 55% invested.

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Commodities

Saturday, October 28, 2023

Gold Should Heed Mining Socks Warning / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023

By: Submissions

While geopolitical conflict has kept gold afloat, mining stocks’ weakness signals trouble ahead. 

 Economic Recession Looms

While risk assets attempt to break free of their bearish corrections, gold’s relative outperformance has the yellow metal shining bright. Despite that, we’ve booked 11-straight profitable trades, and our 12th (currently open) remains in the green. As a result, our success highlights why mining stocks are often better trading instruments than the yellow metal. 

Furthermore, while gold has largely sidestepped the recent risk rout, a recession is bearish for nearly all assets, and gold should suffer mightily if (when) the economic pain unfolds

For example, S&P Global released its U.S. Composite PMI on Oct. 25. And while the headline results were decent and it outperformed expectations, weakness was present beneath the surface. An excerpt read:

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Companies

Saturday, October 28, 2023

Welcome to the AI AgeTech Stocks / Companies / AI

By: Stephen_McBride

A lucky guy in California recently snagged the winning ticket for the $1.7 billion Powerball lottery.

Overnight billionaire. That’s the dream, I guess.

Americans spend more on lottery tickets than sporting events… books… movie tickets… music… and video games combined. Wild!

Of course, the odds of winning the Powerball are 1 in 292 million.

A much surer way to get rich is investing in great businesses profiting from disruption.
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Commodities

Friday, October 27, 2023

Will Gold Mining Stocks Look Past Q3? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023

By: Gary_Tanashian

Gold mining stock charts have not yet confirmed a sustainable rally, and Q3 fundamentals may be a headwind

We have used this daily chart of the gold stock ETF, GDX in written and video updates to keep NFTRH subscribers apprised of the progress of the bounce from the early October low (after previously using the chart to manage the long correction that began with the May double top).

Let’s update the daily technical situation by noting that the GDX rally has halted where it should have halted, as we’ve expected resistance at or below the 200 day moving average (30.49) and/or clear visual resistance at 30. The pullback is in progress and has done a good thing by filling the upper gap as it grinds and tests the 50 day moving average. All normal.

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