Monday, July 24, 2023
Will UK House Prices Crash 2023? / Housing-Market / UK Housing
By: Nadeem_Walayat
First a reminder of some of the primary drivers for UK house prices (in order of importance).
1. Population Growth
2. Inflation courtesy of money printing.
3. Growing economy.
4. Insufficient new housing construction.
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Monday, July 24, 2023
AI Tech Stocks Flashing Red Lights in the Chernobyl Control Room / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
AI Stocks Flashing Red Lights in the Chernobyl Control Room (3 or more).
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Monday, July 24, 2023
Beneficiaries of US Dollar Weakness / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Richard_Mills
On July 9 the US dollar index (DXY) slipped under 100 for the first time since April 3, 2022, with cooling US inflation data released on July 12 maintaining the trend of a weaker greenback against a basket of other trade partner currencies.
As of July 14, the dollar was down nearly 13% from last year’s two-decade high and was its lowest level in 15 months. According to Reuters, the softer-than-expected inflation print supports views that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its interest rate-hiking cycle.
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Monday, July 24, 2023
The Fed as Bad Bank Ultimate Irony / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Jim_Willie_CB
A historical paradigm shift is in progress. The process of de-Dollarization began with Russia in response to the Maidan coup in Kiev back in 2016. The Russian reacted in multiple ways, but the Eurasian Trade Zone grew. That was the Jackass name given, which has emerged as the BRICS Union in recent years. Numerous nations have followed the Russian lead in removing the USDollar from their trade payments and banking practices. The American observers have dismissed this trend as trivial and not enduring. They are wrong, dead wrong. In the last 18 months, the Japanese had dumped $240 billion in USTreasury Bonds over a 12-month period. They continue. They accumulate Gold in their banking reserves, thus following the BRICS theme, their operating policy. The macrocosm, by contrast, will feature 20 nations dumping USTBonds en masse, and acquiring Gold for banking reserves. The UAE will become a primary office for the conversion, their Dirham notably pegged to the USD.
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Monday, July 24, 2023
Is The Stock Market Disconnected From Reality, Or Are You? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
Ordinarily, I write one public article every week or so. However, after reading a number of other articles this week, and more importantly, reading the comments section, it has pushed me to consider writing an additional missive this week. And, within this article, I am going to address two topics which seem to have people looking the wrong way all too often.
“The Stock Market Is Disconnected From Reality”
One article after another and one comment after another presents us with the common perception that the stock market is not representing “reality.” And, the problem stems from the fact that all of these people view various economic factors as representing “reality,” which they then attempt to impute to the stock market price movement. And, when their factors do not match up with price action, their conclusion is that the stock market is not appropriately representative of “reality.”
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Monday, July 24, 2023
Are Silver’s Liquidity Dreams a Mirage? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
The white metal is priced for an economic outcome that’s unlikely to materialize.
AI Optimism
With liquidity-fueled assets outperforming in 2023, they’ve decided that QT and higher interest rates are not going to spoil their party. Moreover, with silver and gold also liquidity beneficiaries, they have adopted similar attitudes. However, while the gambit can persist in the short term, a major climax should unfold over the medium term.
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Monday, July 24, 2023
Gold Stocks Technical Breakout / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2023
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold-stock technicals are dramatically improving, turning increasingly bullish. After slumping to major support zones in the summer doldrums, the gold miners’ stocks have surged sharply in the past couple weeks. That strong advance has achieved a decisive breakout above the main gold-stock benchmark’s key 50-day moving average. Similar breakouts in recent years have heralded imminent big sector rallies.
Gold-stock price action has been really interesting lately, so I’ve written several recent essays analyzing it. Between late September to mid-April, the leading GDX gold-stock ETF powered 63.9% higher in 6.5 months. That amplified gold’s underlying parallel 25.7% upleg by 2.5x, right in the middle of the major gold stocks’ usual leverage range of 2x to 3x. Then gold rolled over into a healthy pullback in early May.
GDX closed just shy of a new upleg high on May 4th, the day gold hit its own latest of $2,050. But with gold getting seriously overbought and greed growing excessive, the yellow metal reversed to work off both conditions. So over the next 1.8 months into late June, gold pulled back 6.9% to $1,908. That perfectly-normal mid-upleg selloff was right in line with February’s 7.2% pullback, and restored sentiment balance.
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Monday, July 24, 2023
Are your kids suffering from The META “mind virus?” / Politics / Social Media
By: Stephen_McBride
Have you signed up for Threads yet?
Facebook’s (META) new social media app, called the “Twitter killer,” is taking off like a rocket.
In just five days, it hit 100 million users. That’s faster than ChatGPT!
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Saturday, July 22, 2023
Stock Market S&P500 2023 Road Map Current State / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Continues to pull stocks relentlessly higher towards a target of 4,500 by late July. so any correction is likely to be minor i.e. something like a couple of hundred S&P points, 4100 at the lowest, where right now instead of FOMO-ing I am eyeing the run to sub 4000 during that deep pull back into October, so far the market has done nothing to negate this long standing expectation.
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Friday, July 21, 2023
CPI LIE, Fed Funds and Earnings and Recessions / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
CP LIE Tuesday
The smoke and mirrors annual inflation indices which mask the true magnitude of inflation pain that will run for the whole of this decade will Tuesday deliver a mix bag, a sharply lower headline rate falling towards 4%, whilst a stubbornly high core rate that will remain above 5% which is what the Fed is focused upon and thus likely to send yields higher. So the CPI should be a net bearish for stocks. Remember the Fed target is 2% not 5!
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Friday, July 21, 2023
AI Tech Stocks Red Lights and Sell Triggers / Stock-Markets / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FOMO IS EXTREME, and up until last week's AAII survey the only thing that was lacking was a bullish investor sentiment gauge to match the stock prices going nuts to the upside! Well we got that with a shockingly extreme jump in investor sentient reading that went from 29% bull to 44.5% bull in 1 week!. Normally I don't pay much attention to this, but that is a BIG JUMP! We have not seen readings as high as this since late 2001, the pumps are definitely being primed for a sell off.
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Sunday, July 09, 2023
The AAII Stock Market Investor Sentiment Switch Got Flipped! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market Sentiment
By: Nadeem_Walayat
FOMO IS EXTREME, and up until last week's AAII survey the only thing that was lacking was a bullish investor sentiment gauge to match the stock prices going nuts to the upside! Well we got that with a shockingly extreme jump in investor sentient reading that went from 29% bull to 44.5% bull in 1 week!. Normally I don't pay much attention to this, but that is a BIG JUMP! We have not seen readings as high as this since late 2001, the pumps are definitely being primed for a sell off.
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Sunday, July 09, 2023
Uk Inflation in 2023: The Current Situation / Economics / Inflation
By: Umer_Mahmood
The April index falls less than expected to 8.7%. And the core figure has been at its best since 1992. After the IMF's good estimates on the economy, markets see a hawkish BoE
Difficult day for the stock markets of the Continent, which has been affected by a long series of bad news. Starting with the cold shower that came from British inflation, to which are added the fears of the failed agreement on the US debt ceiling and those about the damage that the Chinese economy could suffer from the new wave of Covid together with the ban on Micron chips. But, if on the impasse in Washington there is the belief that an agreement will arrive before 'date X', the race in prices in the United Kingdom gives us a glimpse of a dark future on the interest rate front.
Tuesday, July 04, 2023
Current State of Stock Market FOMO / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We have CP LIE Tuesday and then the Fed rate meeting Wednesday in advance of which retail investors and many fund managers woke up June 1st to realise that there is a bull market underway and literally PANIC bought like a herd galloping towards the edge of the AI cliff.
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Tuesday, July 04, 2023
US Real Estate Bubble From A Technical Analysis Point Of View / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Understanding The Market Cycles
My focus usually lies with stock indexes, sectors, and commodities, but today, we venture into the real estate market. Real estate is a market that many people don’t fully comprehend. Many are excited by the robust housing market, believing it’s never been a better time to buy. But the reality is, I believe we’re in a phase that isn’t ideal for such investments.
Taking a leaf from Stan Weinstein’s book, he proposed that the market has four stages: Stage 1, where active investment capital isn’t advisable due to the choppy, flatlining market; Stage 2, the bull market phase; Stage 3, a volatile phase where struggle reigns; and Stage 4, a phase marked by a massive decline. Stages 2 & 4 are usually an easy time for investors to make money. But in Stages 1 & 3, it becomes harder to grow your capital and much easier to lose a hefty portion. This is the crucial time to preserve and protect your wealth for reinvestment when conditions improve.
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Tuesday, July 04, 2023
Stock Market As Bullish As It Gets / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 didn‘t look back following the tame core PCE report, clearly betting on no recession and Fed to declare victory against inflation. For all the positive broadening of stock market breadth in cyclicals and tech alike, other asset classes incl. bonds didn‘t get as carried away, meaning that stocks are likely to do a shallow consolidation of steep Friday‘s gains just next (today and tomorrow premarket).
As I have written on Friday – on top of dip buying being the name of the game following Thursday‘s reaction:
(…) As I don‘t expect a hot inflation figure … this should work to ultimately let stocks overcome any initial gyration with ES move to the upside, helping real assets and weakening USD,
Tuesday, July 04, 2023
Russia Set to Blow Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant or Use Tactical Nukes - Act Now to Protect / Politics / Ukraine War
By: Eliza_Walayat
RADIATION FALLOUT WARNING! Tactical Nukes or even worse the blowing up of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power plant, Europe's biggest would result in nuclear fallout spreading across Western Europe! The time to act is NOW Not AFTER it happens as you would have zero chance of being able to get your hands on what's needed to protect from nuclear fallout, that's Potassium Iodide tablets and a Radiation Detector as covered in this video.
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Thursday, June 29, 2023
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2023 / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Will resolution of the Debt ceiling nothing burger send indices such as the S&P to the moon? Despite the fact that I have stated countless times that they are a red herring as the red hot chili pepper AI stocks rally illustrates S&P has been flat whilst AI tech stocks have gone to the moon. Nevertheless most remain obsessed by what the S&P will do, just as long as I can continue to ignore the Nasdaq! Getting ones knickers in a twist over the Nasdaq is what would sow maximum confusion when one just needs to stick with the script of gaining and maintaining exposure to the AI tech stocks as long as they remain largely grounded in reality and not go nuts as Nvidia has just done, more on Nvidia later.
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Thursday, June 29, 2023
Stocks and Junk Bonds: "This Divergence Appears Meaningful" / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: EWI
The trends of the junk bond and stock markets tend to be correlated.
The reason why is that junk bonds and stocks are closely affiliated in the pecking order of creditors in case of default. The rank of junk bonds is only slightly higher than equities because debt involves a contract.
Given these two markets are usually correlated, it's worth paying attention when a divergence takes place. Indeed, a divergence is in the works now. In other words, while stocks have been holding up, the price of junk bonds have been trending lower for much of the year.
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Thursday, June 29, 2023
Can We Live in a World without Silver? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: MoneyMetals
The World Silver Survey is an annual report published by The Silver Institute since 1990. It provides market participants with supply and demand statistics for critical sectors of the silver market, along with price and trade data.
The 2022 World Silver Survey reported a global silver deficit of 154 million ounces, the most significant since 2015. The 2023 World Silver Survey reported a global silver deficit of 129 million ounces, the second-largest since 2015.