Monday, May 22, 2023
Stock Market CHEAT SHEET / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
It's your lucky day! You get access to my stock market brief that was made available to patrons just a few hours ago!
S&P 4192 - What if someone told you 7 months ago that TODAY the S&P would be trading at 4200 and the Dow at 33,900, how much would you value such analysis? $5 per month? https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat
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Monday, May 22, 2023
AI Will First KILL Us then Save Us / Politics / AI
By: HGR
The world is in the grips of AI mania courtesy of Chat GPT that brought the power of large language models to the masses, that had been quietly flying under the radar for several years, but come release of GPT3 everything literally changed overnight. sending stacks such as Nvidia soaring to bubble territory. The unfolding explosion is amazing to someone who has been engaged in machine learning for over a decade, and AI explosion IS literally taking place right now that is the focus of my latest machine intelligence video that sheds light on where all of this is headed given the rate of change now underway.
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Monday, May 22, 2023
One Possible Outcome to a New World Order / Politics / New World Order
By: Raymond_Matison
Our recent domestic financial fixed income markets have been bludgeoned by Federal Reserve’s raising interest rates, supposedly in order to reign in accelerated inflation – which can be argued to be the result of the FED’s own preceding policies of currency expansion induced by increasing government debt. Our equities and fixed income markets are highly volatile as perceptions tilt between inflation induced melt-up and increased interest rate and choked-off credit extension induced melt-down.
In the meantime, higher interest rates have reduced the market value of government and other bonds, thereby deflating commercial bank reserve assets, causing alarming bank runs and failures with profound reductions in the market value of most bank stocks. In addition, our banking system and domestic economy is further threatened by the increasing cost of interest rates in servicing our gargantuan national debt, a commercial property mortgage loan fiasco, and residential mortgage loan defaults. These dangerous conditions are not ours alone, but are global because our dollar has been and still is the majority currency of global trade and finance. To the extent that many international banks hold a large proportion of their banking reserves in dollars, a big reduction in the value of our dollar will force a change in acceptable reserves and guarantee the destruction of the global banking system. As a result, the global trade and economy, and financial system is at risk to markedly decline, even collapse, and then to evolve to a more decentralized multiple currency system that may include blockchains and various virtual currencies.
Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff in their classic book “This Time is Different” published in 2009, analyzed financial crisis of governments over eight centuries. They observed that “problematic political systems make external borrowing a tempting device for governments to employ to avoid hard decisions about spending and taxing.” They conclude (page 21) that “The duress typically involves a vicious cycle of loss in market confidence, spiraling interest rates on external government debt, and political resistance to repaying foreign creditors. Ultimately, default often occurs at levels of debt well below the 60 percent ratio of debt to GDP enshrined in Europe’s Maastricht treaty, a clause intended to protect the euro system from government defaults.” European Union’s debt to GDP now exceeds 90%, while that of the United States is at 120% - how do both comport in confidence and stability in our global financial and monetary system relative to the Reinhart and Rogoff eight centuries of guidelines? How should Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s rate U.S. and Euro debt for investment quality? Do you see how financial markets could crash, dollar’s value collapse, and a global crisis ensue?
Tuesday, May 16, 2023
US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's definitely the time to bring out the clowns as MSM and much of the blogosfear are obsessed by the US debt ceiling smoke and mirrors circus that is being used as an excuse to explain potential market outcomes from a CRASH upwards, there is always a crash coming! And if the market soars then no problem it will soar because of debt ceiling positive developments, Whether UP or Down it will all be as a consequence of the DEBT CEILING! I have watched this circus take place every couple of years over the decades, it IS just a circus act for the Republicans and Democrats to prance around in front of the media, a smoke and mirrors TV show to remind the masses that they have all of the power and so if the chose to nuke the US economy.
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Tuesday, May 16, 2023
Silver Price May Explode / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
Approximately 12 years ago, I wrote my first public market prognostication and it was focused on gold. At the time, gold was enjoying a parabolic rally, and the discussion amongst the general public was how far past the $2,000 mark gold was going to strike during that rally.
So, on Aug. 11, 2011, I concluded my first gold article as follows:
"Again, since we are most probably in the final stages of this parabolic fifth wave "blow-off-top," I would seriously consider anything approaching the $1,915 level to be a potential target for a top at this time."
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Tuesday, May 16, 2023
The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
What if bitcoin just topped? What does it change for the price of gold going forward, if anything?
Many years ago, people wanted to buy gold but didn’t really want to store it in their homes, pay for safekeeping and insurance during transport, and so on. The demand gap was filled by all sorts of e-gold, e-bullion, and overall pooled accounts. This idea might seem odd to those, who are new to the precious metals market, and writing about it does make me recall that scene from the Lord of the Rings movie.
- “I was there, Gandalf, 3000 years ago…”
Says Elrond, while describing the weakness of men and how it contributed to Middle Earth’s status quo.
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Tuesday, May 16, 2023
How Social Media Can Improve Older Adults' Social Lives / Personal_Finance / Social Media
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Maintaining meaningful relationships in later life is more important than ever as the world's population ages. One of the most accessible and versatile tools for staying connected in today's world is social media.
Internet platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram have opened up unprecedented channels of communication between people of diverse backgrounds and locations.
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Monday, May 15, 2023
Humanity Dancing to Extinction as AI Mega-trend Goes Parabolic With GPT LLM's / Politics / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Musk says halt work on Large Language models, primarily so he can play and catch up to the runaway train sparked by the GPT Large Language Models that this video acts to chart where we are heading along on a Machine Intelligence curve that is now going parabolic as illustrated by the fact that even those who have been part of this trend for over a decade can no longer keep pace with the rate of change so what hope do ordinary folks have hence this video will act to shine a light much as my 2016 video did that laid the grounds for the Quantum AI Mega-trend so see this video as Part 2 of a 7 year arc.
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Monday, May 15, 2023
The Ultimate Guide to Luxury Property Investment in Turkey / Housing-Market / Turkey
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Are you a high-net-worth individual considering an investment in foreign luxury real estate but need to know which country would be a great fit? We invite you to consider Turkey, a popular destination for investors from all around the world. In this article, we will share knowledge about the steps of buying a property in Turkey and tips on making an excellent choice for your investment portfolio.
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Monday, May 15, 2023
How to Get Budgies to Use Nesting Box Top Tips - Breeding Budgies for Beginners UK / Personal_Finance / Animals & Pets
By: N_Walayat
How to breed budgies for absolute beginners! - So we've put the box in place but budgies are skittish so how to get the budgies to actually go inside the breeding box so that they can get going and lay some eggs, find out in this video of how we did it.
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Monday, May 15, 2023
Online Trading Bootcamp: Essential Skills for Every Trader / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade
By: Submissions
Now booking: Full-day LIVE Online Trading Bootcamp, featuring nine high-impact webclasses delivered by 10 trading experts with over 250 hours of combined experience in the markets. Thursday 18th May, 9am-5pm BST. Strictly limited places – click here NOW for full details and to book your FREE place.
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Tuesday, May 09, 2023
Stock Market Swings Analysis Trend Forecast / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Swings Analysis
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Tuesday, May 09, 2023
More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2023
By: EWI
This ETF "continues to make lower lows"
It's sobering to reflect on the fact that the second, third and fourth largest bank failures in U.S. history have all occurred in just the past few months.
They are First Republic, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York. The failure of Washington Mutual in 2008 still ranks first.
And here's an interesting factoid from the New York Post (May 1):
This year's 3 bank failures held $532B in assets -- more than all lenders that collapsed in 2008 crisis
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Tuesday, May 09, 2023
What Should Forex Traders Know About the Ross Hook Pattern? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Sumeet_Manhas
Trading experts note the great rivalry level in the global FX market nowadays. Specialists explain such a situation because of the intensive development of this investment sector. Reuters analysts state that the specified trading branch increased by 14% from 2019 to 2022. Intense rivalry forces investors to seek effective ways to make deals. And skilled traders consider the Ross Hook pattern one of today's most efficient trading strategies.
Specialists claim that the RH tactic only gives great results if you cooperate with trustworthy brokers (for instance, FBS), though. That's because unchecked brokerage sites often freeze and lag. That's especially true for peak hours. In this case, you can't make deals exactly at the right time. As a result, investors sell assets at lower prices or even have losses. And now, let's view the primary features of the RH strategy.
Friday, May 05, 2023
Current State of the Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ray Kurzweil was WRONG the SINGULARITY is NOW!
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Friday, May 05, 2023
Your Bank: "Use This as an Early Warning Signal" / Companies / Banking Stocks
By: EWI
First Republic Bank "customers had pulled $100 billion in deposits in the first quarter"
More dramatic news on the banking front.
On April 25, investors in the shares of First Republic Bank were hit hard (The New York Times):
First Republic Bank Enters New Free Fall as Concerns Mount
The bank's shares fell by about 50 percent on Tuesday, a day after it said customers had pulled $100 billion in deposits in the first quarter.
As of this writing on April 26, shares are down another 20% intraday.
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Friday, May 05, 2023
How "Insane Optimism" is at Work in the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: EWI
"Stock investors are so bullish that they are..."
Many technical indicators are highly useful, yet the price moves of the stock market really boil down to two things: optimism and pessimism.
Major trend turns tend to occur when extremes are reached in either optimism or pessimism.
Most recently, optimism has been in charge. The question is: Has an extreme been reached?
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Sunday, April 30, 2023
Silver Doesn’t Care, but You Should / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Submissions
While calling the top is a process that plays out over time, silver’s momentum has fizzled, and the next major move should be to the downside. To explain, we wrote on Apr. 21:Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 30, 2023
QE-Light Forestalls Crisis…For Now / Stock-Markets / Quantitative Easing
By: Michael_Pento
First Quarter GDP increased at only a 1.1% seasonally adjusted annual rate. That was down from 2.6% in Q4 of last year, which was down from 3.2% during Q3. Despite the clear slowdown in economic growth, there still exists a battle between Wall Street's soft-landing narrative, where inflation comes down in the context of robust growth. And the other, and more accurate scenario, where inflation falls because of a recession.You just can't get the ROC of inflation and growth to increase when money supply growth plunges from 27% in 2021 to one that is contracting by 4%, as of the latest March data.
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Saturday, April 29, 2023
Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's CPI Tuesday! We usually get a fake out move going into CPI then a reversal soon after which given that the market has been falling since the 6th of March into CPI data release then we should be setting up for a reversal higher some time after release of CP LIE which chimes with my end of the correction expectations given that both primary (3900) and secondary (3820) correction targets have been fulfilled.
Last month my CPI forecast table suggested to expect 6.28% vs actual of 6.4%. For February the table expects a sharp drop to 5.66% vs consensus of 6%, actual is probably going to be somewhere between 5.66% and 6%, so a net positive CPI data release should give weight to the next Fed rate hike being 0,25% instead of 0.5%, with the really big CPI drop coming on April's data release after which I expect inflation will become more sticky.
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