Saturday, December 17, 2022
Stock Market Another Fail Attempt / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Donald_W_Dony
Following the December 06, 2022, Market Minute titled "Recap of key market structure going into Q1" The benchmark equity index (S&P 500) has made another failed attempt to rise. In mid-December, the index reached the downward sloping trend at 4070 at immediately retreated.
This is the fourth failed attempt to cross the line.
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Friday, December 16, 2022
Stock Market SEASONAL ANALYSIS / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears are crowing at their loudest that the end is neigh.
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Friday, December 16, 2022
Gold Defies Hawkish Fed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold defied another hawkish Fed decision this week, consolidating high in its immediate wake. That was an impressive show of strength, after this extreme Fed tightening cycle hammered gold for a half-year or so. That strong performance reflects gold-futures speculators’ weakening resolve to keep shorting. With their long-side selling exhausted, they have massive mean-reversion buying to do which is super-bullish for gold.
Gold was looking really good technically heading into this week’s latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Since late September, it had blasted 11.5% higher in a powerful rebound on big gold-futures short-covering buying. That catapulted gold back above its key 200-day moving average on FOMC eve, by the most since mid-June. Gold was a hair away from a decisive 200dma breakout, after escaping its downtrend.
The FOMC decision itself wasn’t a surprise, with the Fed hiking its federal-funds rate by 50 basis points. That was a sharp slowdown from the streak of monster 75bp hikes executed at its previous four meetings. The FOMC statement was virtually unchanged from its last iteration in early November. With this week’s 50bp hike universally expected, that didn’t faze gold-futures speculators. They focused on something else.
Once a quarter after every other FOMC decision, the Fed releases its Summary of Economic Projections by individual top Fed officials. This is better known as the dot plot, since it shows where they see FFR levels heading in the future. Though notoriously unreliable in predicting where the FFR is actually going according to the Fed chair himself, traders lap that up. This week it proved more hawkish than expected.
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Friday, December 16, 2022
Are Stocks In a New Downtrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
Stocks sold off on Thursday, as Central Banks signaled more tightening ahead. Is this a new downtrend?The S&P 500 index lost 2.49% on Thursday, as it extended its short-term downtrend after breaking below the 4,000 level. The market continued to react on Wednesday’s FOMC interest rate hike. Yesterday it went the lowest since November 10.
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Friday, December 16, 2022
Stock Market Indexes Rejected At Resistance Signal Another Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Stocks struggled with overhead resistance for the past week. While seasonal trends usually favor a year-end rally, this year’s rally may already have finished.
January will be the month to watch. If the market closes with a positive January, we almost always have a strong year for stocks. But if not, we could be in for a doozy of a bear market in the first half of 2023.
This week we had more hawkish Fed talk on Wednesday, suggesting that rates will remain higher for a longer period of time. This week’s economic reports for November showed a drop in retail sales and manufacturing, which raises concern that the economy is weakening.
Falling bond yields are also hinting at a recession in 2023, as are falling commodity prices. Stock indexes look to have had an exhaustion gap higher, followed by heavy institutional selling after the CPI data came out. This further confirms my thinking that money managers are unloading shares into every rally possible before the next major leg down for stocks.
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Thursday, December 15, 2022
Stocks and 10 Year Bond Yields / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The consensus view is that falling bond yields are good for stocks. However that is not accurate, what stocks like is mildly falling OR rising bond yields. What stocks do not like is what we have witnessed since the start of the year, that is fast moving bond yields as the bond bubble burst in the wake of HIGH INFLATION.
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Thursday, December 15, 2022
Stock Market Tough Inflation Stance Still / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 bulls salivated in anticipation of some low CPI recognition, but got none from the Fed. Actually, Powell reiterated the readiness to adjust the restrictive Fed funds rate level higher if justified – and household inflation expectations coupled with the still hot and tight labor market, provide him with enough work so that the expectations don‘t become unanchored. Note that the Fed is taking on a supply issue coupled with excess demand, through demand destruction.
The resulting selloff merely illustrates the degree of liquidity junkie condition markets are in, looking for cheap money. The no surprise 50bp hike yesterday and then 25bp Jan and Mar, would only get Fed funds rate to 5.00% while I see them taking it to 5.50% slowly, and keeping it there. That‘s hardly a pivot or pause – only a decelaration in rate hikes pace while the effects of tightening are gradually playing out, with housing and manufacturing more than teetering already.
Wednesday, December 14, 2022
Stock Margin Debt, Market Breadth and Investor Sentiment Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Will there be an Early Fed Pivot?
Well all of these dollars flooding into the US are going to push up asset prices / generate economic activity, so a strong dollar is also acting to mute the Fed's actions and thus Jerome Powell could deliver on what his dot plot implies i.e. that the Fed funds rate rises to 4.75% during Q1 2023 which means continuing dollar strength and pain for most economies and downwards pressure on stock prices. Though stock prices tend to discount the future and so are factoring in the possibility of 4.75% in today's stock prices rather than wait for March 2023, following which the Fed's Dots suggest rates falling to 2.5%. Though the Fed dot plots are virtually always wrong 1 year out.
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Wednesday, December 14, 2022
Banzai CPI and Fed / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2022
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 celebrated the „only“ 7.1% CPI YoY news, but it was really just the real assets who kept their gains while stocks fell back to where they started from in what appears the correct big picture view of being on the lookout to get short as betting it all on a strong Santa Claus rally has the appeal of picking up pennies in front of a steamroller without more USD retreat juice. I really liked the precious metals performance with miners increasingly confirming the upswing, with both metals doing increasingly well. Let alone copper and oil...
Where does that land us in stocks today? The weak follow through has me on toes, this inability to defend 4,070. I doubt we would overcome my long ago touted 4,130 obstacle later today as Powell dutifully delivers a no surprise statement. Conference is a volatility wildcard.
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Wednesday, December 14, 2022
Is Forex Worth It? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Submissions
The answer to the question depends on who you ask! For instance, someone with a sound plan and risk management plan will find forex trading worthwhile. Someone who has attempted to invest money through Forex trading and did not avail what he expected, he might respond that it is not worthwhile.
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Wednesday, December 14, 2022
What Are Safe Savings Withdrawal Rates In Retirement? / Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
Throughout most of my working life, I assumed I had my retirement sorted. I’d been building my own savings from the day I started working, as well as contributing to a retirement fund with automatic deductions from my salary.
However, as I got older, a lot of questions started to gnaw at my peace of mind. The amount I had saved seemed like enough, and still had time to grow. But I started to worry that I couldn’t truly know if I had enough available. After all, taking inflation into account, the amount I would need for my day-to-day needs would constantly increase.
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Monday, December 12, 2022
Stock Market Volatility (VIX)A Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This stocks bear market has been far less volatile than previous bear markets where the often voiced wait for capitulation moment has just flat out failed to materialise i.e. a VIX spike to above 45, instead each new low has failed to even reach 40. Nor is the significance of any decline reflected in the VIX peaks. So whilst many inexperienced investors may cry crash and collapse in fear on every down day, however this stocks bear market has so far been highly orderly, technical even as though a machine intelligence is at work behind the scene milking the market of money like a cash cow. The VIX range of 35 to 20 is very orderly given MSM and blogosfear noise, too calm for my liking i.e. most of the swings have not been volatile enough to capitalise upon.
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Monday, December 12, 2022
Gold And Silver May Be The Outperforming Assets For 2023 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Avi_Gilburt
When I was younger, I was taught that if you cannot say something nice, don't say anything at all. Well, when many of you have asked why I have not written about metals in quite some time, now you know the reason. But, I think that's about to change.
Before we begin, I want to give you a little background about my history in the metals market.
For those who may not remember the action we experienced in the metals market back in the summer of 2011, the market was going parabolic at the time, with some days seeing $50 increases. And the only arguments at the time were regarding how far beyond $2,000 gold was going to take us.
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Monday, December 12, 2022
How to Adjust Size of Car Battery Post So it Fits the Terminals - Nissan Micra Example / Personal_Finance / Motoring
By: HGR
Car battery posts tend to come in two sizes, normal and thin, the problem is when buying a battery online, despite putting ones number plate into the sites such as Amazon, they still end up sending the WRONG post sized battery resulting a lot of wasted time and expense. Here is how to ensure you get a battery that fits your car buy buying one that one can easily adjust the post size from normal to thin, literally within seconds! No fancy tools are required.
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Monday, December 12, 2022
O2 Ruins Christmas for Thousands of Sheffielders - BAD Mobile Signal for Months! / Local / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
The last time many Sheffielders experienced a good mobile signal was early October and despite the promises from O2 to fix the problem we are now lesss than 2 weeks away from Chrisatmas and the lazy buggers have still not fixed the bad signal problem of why their masts are switched off! Watch the video for why O2 is a crap mobile network
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Monday, December 12, 2022
BEST HOME CHRISTMAS LIGHTS 2022 / Personal_Finance / Holidays
By: Eliza_Walayat
Counting down to Christmas, it's early December and time to start putting up the christmas lights for 2022, pull out all the lights from last year, but will they still work? See how many lights survived to make it into XMAS 2022.
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Sunday, December 11, 2022
Intel Empire Strikes Back! The IMPOSSIBLE Stocks Bull Market Begins! / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Liz Truss the kiss of Death is GONE! She would have gone earlier but had to keep her mouth shut for her the first two weeks of her dire premiership due to the death of the Queen. Rishi is the parties choice and there was speculation that Boris Macbeth Johnson was about to make a come back after flying in from his Caribbean Island to return to power barely weeks after being kicked out of No 10 by his own party. But no more, after reading the writing on the wall Boris has decided his return to power would have blown the Tory party apart, triggering a general election that would have seen the Tories wiped out. Maximum political uncertainty at a time of of MAXIMUM economic and market distress with Inflation soaring into the stratosphere sending ALL nations teetering on the brink of collapse and NOT just the UK. ALL are suffering the consequences of the US sucking the world dry of Dollars like Sagittarius A* stripping orbiting stars of their economic mass which as I stated in my previous article could usher in an abrupt halt to the Fed's taken for granted rate hike cycle to 5%, a pivot of sorts so as to avoid a headlong plunge into Financial Crisis 2.0, that's if Fed members have any sense between their ears.
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Sunday, December 11, 2022
As Inflation signals fade, the Gold Mining Stocks sector outperforms / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022
By: Gary_Tanashian
The gold mining sector is doing what it should do amid fading inflation
If you have tuned out inflationist gold bugs since mid-2020 you are now in position to capitalize, unlike scores of inflation bugs who’d already bought (and likely sold into tax loss season, 2022).
Readers of nftrh.com have seen this space write many times how gold is not about inflation. At least not primarily. That compounds with the gold miners, which leverage gold’s standing within the inflated (and periodically deflated) macro. The gold mining sector is not about inflation. As in 2003-2008 the gold miners can rise during an inflationary phase, but as in Q4, 2008 they would then be summarily executed due to poor accumulated fundamentals.
The correction in the gold mining sector from mid-2020 into Q4 of this year was entirely normal to this analysis. What is (or should be) abnormal is excuse making and ghost stories about conspiracy and manipulation to explain why gold miners did so poorly. As you probably know, there is a lot of that out there. It’s tradition in the precious metals complex.
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Sunday, December 11, 2022
Demand For Gold – No New Highs / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022
By: Kelsey_Williams
As investors and others continue to jockey for position in order to announce that “the bottom is in for gold” or that “gold owners received an early Christmas present” or “crypto failures will translate to higher prices for gold”, it is clear that most of them are thinking that increased demand for gold will drive its price higher.
That is not the way it works.
FACT NO. 1 The price of gold is NOT driven by demand for gold.
FACT NO. 2 The price of gold tells us NOTHING about gold.
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Sunday, December 11, 2022
Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
In my extensive analysis of September 2021 this indicator warned to expect the Dow to drop to 28k, the low to date has been 28.7k! For the bull market proper to resume this indicator needs trade above the thick black line, until then the market remains in no mans land of trading within range with the risks of worse to come. Most probable is the market trades in a range i.e. to trade above the blue dotted line, until the market has worked through it's bear phase. At this point I am discounting a re-run of 2008, as so far the indicator is showing a tendency to remain above the grey line, however this also implies that the bull market proper could be as much as a year away! In terms of price, the Dow is not going to see a new all time high anytime soon, probably beyond the end of 2023.
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