Wednesday, January 11, 2023
Alibaba - BABA 9988 Stock Price Analysis Forecast 2023 / Companies / China Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ai Stocks Portfolio
A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don't fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).
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Wednesday, January 11, 2023
The Perfect Storm For Stock Market Investors To Lose Big In 2023 Is Upon Us, Unless… / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Last week I rang the bell telling investors and traders to wake up and smell the hot coffee because 2023 is going to be a life-changing year, and likely, not for the better.
The 30,000-foot view of where we are in the stock market cycle is shown on my gauge.
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Wednesday, January 11, 2023
Canadian Military Unprepared for Russia Arctic WAR / Politics / Canada
By: Richard_Mills
“The world is getting more dangerous every day and we need to be ready for it,” General Wayne Eyre, Canada’s Chief of the Defence Staff told a House of Commons committee in October.
Canada’s top soldier was, of course, referring to the war in Ukraine, which has caused a re-think among NATO about the vulnerability of member countries, especially those bordering Russia.
There’s also the ongoing tensions between the Chinese and US navies over the South China Sea; a possible invasion of Taiwan, a United States ally that China considers a renegade Chinese province which must be re-united with the Motherland; an increasingly belligerent Iran, which has still not taken responsibility for shooting down a Ukrainian airliner three years ago, killing all 176 on board including 138 with ties to Canada; Taliban-controlled Afghanistan and its denial of basic human rights; and Arctic sovereignty in the era of disappearing polar ice — a matter of pressing concern to Canada, one of eight Arctic nations.
Gen. Eyre told the committee the West was “already at war with China and Russia” and that the two global powers were out to remake the world in their own image.
Wednesday, January 11, 2023
Stock Market Dialing Back Fears / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
S&P 500 refused a panicky decline into Powell‘s speech, and swiftly recovered on no fresh hawkish clues. Market breadth improved, and the sellers weren‘t falling over themselves. 3,910 held, and there were no tests of the bottom border of the support zone at 3,895. While real assets didn‘t spurt to the upside yesterday, they‘re likely to catch up today and tomorrow.
Tomorrow, because after initial turbulence over CPI (and especially core CPI!) not declining as fast as the market (and the central bank!) wishes with regard to Fed pivot dreams, I think the positive market reaction to a still reasonably fast declining inflation figure, would prevail (6.6 – 6.7% is enough) – and that we would continue on the march to making a Jan top. Remaining nimble is the name of the game!
Monday, January 09, 2023
Tencent - TCHEY Stock Price Analysis Forecast 2023 / Companies / China Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ai Stocks Portfolio
A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don't fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).
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Monday, January 09, 2023
Gold’s Nasty Divorce / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Kelsey_Williams
Gold’s nasty divorce from the U.S. dollar was finalized in August 1971 when President Richard Nixon suspended any further convertibility of U.S. dollars into gold by non-U.S. citizens. That action removed any remaining links between the dollar and gold.
Without convertibility, any official price for gold became meaningless. At that time, the official U.S. dollar price of gold was raised from $40.00 oz to $42.50; but nobody paid much attention.
The U.S. dollar price of gold began a decade-long march that saw a twenty-fold increase culminating in an intra-day high of $843 oz. in January 1980. Gold had finally broken free of its tether.
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Monday, January 09, 2023
Are Stocks In a New Uptrend? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Paul_Rejczak
On Friday the S&P 500 was the highest since mid-December - will the short-term uptrend continue?
The S&P 500 index gained 2.28% on Friday, as investors reacted to better-than-expected monthly jobs data release. The broad stock market’s gauge broke above its recent trading range and it went the highest since December 15, as the daily high was at 3,906.19.
The broad stock market is expected to open 0.5% higher this morning, so stock prices will likely extend their short-term advance. There may be a selling pressure and some profit-taking action as the market gets closer to the resistance level of around 3,920-3,930, marked by the previous local lows, as we can see on the daily chart:
Monday, January 09, 2023
Stock Market Bad Is the New Good / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Monica_Kingsley
Fitting summary of S&P 500 rally – we‘ve seen one of the largest 2y yields daily declines on slowing wage inflation. ISM Services PMIs also added to the Fed hawkishness reappraisal. Squeezing the bears, credit markets were confirming with a risk-on turn likewise.
Daily market breadth was really good, and spells that the move isn‘t over in the least. It progressed fast on the double punch – NFPs not coming in too hot, and real economy slowdown. Where does that leave us? With more prospects for LEIs moving lower, real estate declines, earnings downgrades and ultimately unemployment increase.
All in the name of fighting inflation, after the transitory debacle I called Apr 2021 vocally. Now, the Fed is to keep tightening into a slowing economy (and ready to overdo it), and its targets of CPI below 5% in 2023 and at 2.5% in 2024, are too rosy.
Apart from the shape of the recession, and how well it would be cushioned by the U.S. consumer (look at confidence, expectations, retail sales, deliquencies etc), the key questions are just how far the Fed would take the Fed funds rate, and how long it wishes to keep it at its own evolving definition of a restrictive level.
Sunday, January 08, 2023
ASML Stock Price Analysis Forecast 2023 / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ai Stocks Portfolio
A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don't fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).
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Sunday, January 08, 2023
Will Gold Manage to Break Above Its Mid-2022 Top? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold started this year with a quick rally, but it was mostly erased. It’s still above its mid-2022 high, but will it stay there for much longer?
Is It All Bearish?
Sunday, January 08, 2023
Stagflation to Terrorize the US Economy in 2023 / Economics / Stagflation
By: MoneyMetals
Gold and silver markets got off to a strong start in the first couple days of trading this year before running into some selling pressure on Thursday – only to bounce back again on Friday morning.A superficially strong jobs report has raised expectations for further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and boosted the U.S. dollar on foreign exchange markets. Metals futures traders reflexively responded by hitting the sell button yesterday only to turn around and buy today.
Investors often look at the first few trading days of a New Year for clues as to market trends that may develop for the rest of the year.
Financial News Report: U.S. stocks fell sharply on Thursday as fresh evidence of a tight labor market deepened fears the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for longer than expected.
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Saturday, January 07, 2023
Qualcom QCOM Stock Price Analysis Forecast 2023 / Companies / Tech Stocks
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ai Stocks Portfolio
A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don't fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).
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Saturday, January 07, 2023
Financial Markets Outlook 2023 - Recession Will Create Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2023
By: Submissions
Owen WIlliams writes: As we close out 2022, the worst year for stocks since 2008, we enter 2023 with an elevated risk of seeing an economic recession. From a U.S.-perspective, 2022 was a rare year during which both stocks and bonds suffered major losses. The fastest pace of interest rate hikes since the Volker era, with a 425 bp increase in the Fed Funds rate, penalized both major asset classes and will certainly have repercussions beyond 2022. As many market observers and Fed officials often remind us, interest rate hikes have a long and variable impact on the economy and markets.Before presenting our outlook for each asset class, we share a few general observations for the new year. First, we have never seen two consecutive years during which BOTH equities and bonds have had dismal years. One of the two asset classes should turn in a much stronger performance in 2023. As we explain below, our bet is on fixed income, although there are many attractive areas in equities (outside of the indexes) which are already worth moving into for a long-term position.
Second, we see the extreme reversal in central bank interest rate policy as all part of the Covid episode. The central bank monetary policy, along with the Federal government fiscal policy, reaction to the Covid shutdown was disproportionate, maintained too long, and in our opinion was unnecessary. Policy mistakes in one direction often must be reversed by policy mistakes in the other direction. We believe that this is what is playing out. The Covid episode in its entirety (including the lagged policy mistakes) will become what we refer to as a “watershed moment” for markets. A watershed moment is a major dislocation in markets after any type of excess, be it market-drive (Tech Bubble) or policy-driven (Covid and Housing Bubble). After each dislocation in the past 40 years, we have seen a change in market leadership. As we explain in the Equity section below, the change in leadership we are expecting in this cycle is for relative equity market leadership to shift to international stocks and away from U.S. stocks, which have massively dominated since the Financial Crisis.
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Saturday, January 07, 2023
What Triggered Silver Price Hiccup on the 5th of January? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Fed officials flexed their muscles during the last FOMC meeting. Silver tripped and fell in response, but that didn’t last long – why?The hawkish force was strong with this FOMC! The minutes from the last meeting of the Committee in December offered almost no dovish signals. In particular, the document doesn’t mention anything about the Fed’s pivot. Actually, we can read that “no participants anticipated that it would be appropriate to begin reducing the federal funds rate target in 2023”. That’s bad news for the precious metals, such as silver and gold.
What’s more, the minutes revealed the FOMC participants’ worries about the dovish hopes of investors. The Fed decided to emphasize that it’s not going to change its monetary policy and cut interest rates anytime soon, so investors shouldn’t bet on such a scenario. As the key paragraph says,
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Friday, January 06, 2023
How High Could the Impossible Stocks Bull Market Fly / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Dear Reader
Temperate CPI sends stocks soaring to the moon with Fridays close of 3992 literally within touching distance of breaking above 4000. A week ago I wrote - "there may be more sideways to down price action given the drags we have this week with the Mid-terms and the 10th of November CPI release that could hold stocks back until after their conclusion. Nevertheless as long as the 3620 low holds then the pattern remains in tact for an eventual break higher of 3920 to target 4000+ where I would expect the S&P to achieve 4100 by Christmas and by the time this rally is done we may even see a break above 4300."
And so as soon as the CPI dark clouds were lifted the stock market soared, though you would not think it had if you read or watched any of the usual suspects, that's tweeters, youtubers, and the blogosfear. Not a bull in sight! Were they all caught with their short pants down? Glum faces all round! A collective case of WTH is going on! Confounded disbelief which I suspect will only lift towards the end of this rally when the herd FOMO's into the top similar to August.
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Friday, January 06, 2023
US Real Estate and Banking Warning Signs / Housing-Market / US Housing
By: EWI
Dear Reader,
Here's a paradox for you: The more investors are convinced of a trend, bullish or bearish, the LESS likely that trend is to continue.
Yep. The big crowd gets aboard right as the trend is ready to change.
What about now? Is now one of those moments?
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Friday, January 06, 2023
The Role of AI in Forex Trading / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Boris_Dzhingarov
According to estimates, the global forex market is worth $2.409 quadrillion, while some $6.6 trillion is traded each day across three separate trading session.
These figures have increased markedly since 2016, thanks to the rise of automated trading and the deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) to help minimise risk and optimise returns over time.
But what exactly is AI, and how has it helped to change the world of forex trading over the course of the last decade or so?
Wednesday, January 04, 2023
Alphabet Google GOOG Stock Price Analysis Forecast 2023 / Companies / Google
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Ai Stocks Portfolio
A quick look at the current state of my portfolio which is now 88.5% invested after arrival of approx 5% of fresh cash and after I sold all of my NBIX holding given that it earlier retreated from a multi year high, and that it tends to trade within a range of $125 to $76. I have update the table to indicate when columns were last updated. I have also replaced the beta column with something more useful called Future Growth (1-10), which is basically how I see the COMPANY doing in terms of future growth potential where 10 is the highest and 1 is the lowest, note this does not mean that the stock prices will match growth potential due to a myriad of factors such as sentiment, valuation and politics, but it gives insight into the underlying prospects for the businesses where the two stocks that score 10 are AMD and TSMC which is why I am heavily invested in both and don't fret about stock price drops in either as recently experienced because the underlying businesses have huge long-term future growth potential. Stocks that score 9 are Nvidia, Facebook, ASML and IBM, which again means I am not too phased by what we recently witnessed with the likes of META and and Nvidia, stock prices rarely reflect the actual state of the underlying business as they oscillate between extreme fear and extreme FOMO as illustrated when one watches the Cartoon Network (CNBC).
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 04, 2023
Is the US Dollar Building Strength to Push Gold Prices Down? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2023
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The USD Index is a key driver of gold prices (apart from real interest rates). How much strength has it shown recently?
In yesterday’s analysis, I compared the current situation in the precious metals to the one in stocks that we saw last year. It appears that the similarity remains up-to-date as gold is up in today’s pre-market trading (at the moment of writing these words).
As you may recall, last year, stocks didn’t decline until the second session of the year. Of course, the history doesn’t have repeat itself to the letter, but I wouldn’t make too much of the upswing in the first few days of the year. Here’s what we wrote about this matter yesterday:
Do you remember the “January rally” that we saw in early 2022? It lasted less than two days. Stocks moved higher in the first session of the year, and they formed an intraday top during the second session of the year.
Wednesday, January 04, 2023
Monetary Lags and the Acute Recession of 2023 / Economics / Recession 2023
By: Michael_Pento
Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains unimpressed with the reduction of the rate of inflation; down to 7.1% in November, from 9.1% June. The Summary of Economic Projections shows a desire of the Fed to increase their forecast for the Fed Funds Rate to 5% in 2023, up from the 4.6% projection made in the last SEP that was released in September.
And yet, the Deep State of Wall Street is busy telling investors that the Fed is almost done raising rates, hence, and a new bull market is right around the corner. But history proves this premise to be false. For example, during the preamble to the Great Recession, the Fed Funds Rate reached its apex in June of 2006 at 5.25%. It took 3 years for it to ascend to that level, up from the 1% starting level back in June of 2003. Ben Bernanke then began to cut rates in September of 2007; but the Great Recession began anyway in December of that same year. And, exactly one year from that first rate cut, the stock market went into freefall. This is another clear example of many throughout history that shows rate hikes work with a long lag.