Wednesday, October 10, 2018

IPCC Reports a Climate Fit For a Groundhog / Politics / Climate Change

By: Raul_I_Meijer

And there we go again. Another IPCC report, and they all keep getting more alarming than the previous one. And then nothing substantial happens. Until the next report is issued and makes everybody’s headlines for a day, or two. Rinse, spin and repeat. “Now we really have to do something!”. “World leaders have a moral obligation to act!”.

Oh boy. To start with that last bit, world leaders don’t act because of moral obligations. They act to stay in, or get in, power. And they all know that to achieve that goal they must keep their people happy, even if dictators do this differently from ‘democratically elected’ leaders.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Russian Ruble Technical Chart Analysis and Forecast / Currencies / Russia

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Today I am taking a look at the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar that follows a request from a $12 Patron. The Ruble is not a market I monitor so my analysis is limited to a quick technical take.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Oil Price Rally Boosts Electric Car Sales / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Tesla’s competition is about to get more crowded next year with many legacy automakers and luxury brands launching a record number of battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids.  

All EV makers will have one common element that could help lift demand for battery vehicles—rising oil prices leading to fuel prices at four-year highs, which could turn consumers towards EVs.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Society Trends To Keep in Mind in the USA / Politics / Demographics

By: Dylan_Moran

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

[eBook] How to Identify Turning Points in the Market / InvestorEducation / Learn to Trade

By: Submissions

Dear Reader,

Everyone knows that trading reversals are some of the highest profit potential trades out there…

Risk is low and targets can be huge!

But the tricky part is identifying the exact “turning point” within the market so you can setup these fantastic trades.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

A Bottom in Gold but not THE Bottom / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Gold has struggled to rebound despite an extreme oversold condition and extreme bearish sentiment. Nevertheless, conditions for Gold have not worsened in recent days. In fact, Gold as well as gold stocks appear to be basing for a potential rebound into the holiday season. While some gold bulls expect a major bottom, we aren’t in that camp because the fundamentals are not in place yet to support a sustained advance.

The weekly chart below shows several positives for Gold.

First, last week Gold made a somewhat bullish candle after six weeks of testing $1180-$1190 support and failing to make new lows. With a daily close above $1215, a short-term bottom would be confirmed.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Presidential Cycle 3rd Year (after midterm election) VERY Bullish for Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The third year of the presidential cycle is the year after the midterm elections (i.e. November 2018).

Historically, this is extremely bullish for the U.S. stock market.

Here’s what the stock market does next after midterm elections.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

Google's Dragonfly Serves their Chinese Master / Politics / Google

By: BATR

If there was ever any doubt that Google is committed to the destruction of freedom of speech, just examine their enthusiastic efforts to censor, track and restrict the Chinese use of the internet. Ryan Gallagher reports in The Intercept on a project – code-named Dragonfly.  

"Following a December 2017 meeting between Google’s CEO Sundar Pichai and a top Chinese government official, according to internal Google documents and people familiar with the plans.

Tuesday, October 09, 2018

Inflation Target Regrets / Economics / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

Beginning this fall, and continuing throughout 2019, the stock market’s performance should be vastly different from what has occurred during the prior few years. Indeed, the huge reconciliation of stock prices is arriving now.

The primary reason behind this is the watershed change in global central banks’ monetary policies. For years central banks had been keeping rates near 0%, or below, and at the same time printing over a hundred billion dollars’ worth of fiat currencies each and every month to purchase bonds and stocks. That is all changing now. According to Capital Economics, fourteen major global central banks are either in the process right now, or have indicated that they be will next year, in the process of raising interest rates. At the same time, QE on a global net basis will plunge from $180 billion per month at its peak during 2017, to $0 by December…and will then go negative in 2019.

Tuesday, October 09, 2018

Euro Vulnerable as Slowing Growth Reveals Underlying Issues / Currencies / Euro

By: Submissions

Deb Shaw writes:

In our last commentary on the euro in late August, we wrote that the common currency was set to weaken further thanks to (1) slowing growth, (2) slowing inflation and (3) an outsized speculator long position in euro futures and options. Following the publication of our last commentary, EUR/USD has weakened from 1.1730 – 1.180 (the top-end of its trading range that we update daily on our website) down to 1.1510 (the current price on October 4).

Tuesday, October 09, 2018

Construction Companies to Watch For in 2019 / Companies / Sector Analysis

By: Dylan_Moran

Build, build, build. The construction industry can help drive the economy of a certain nation, a collective of countries, and the world for that matter.

The construction sector is important because it generates jobs that spill over to other aspects such as spending, according to Dr. Sitsabo Dlamini in his graduate paper for the University of Reading. In Europe alone, the industry accounts for 9% of the whole region’s economy and generates 18 million jobs according to the European Commission (EC).

Tuesday, October 09, 2018

ECB Meeting Minutes and US Inflation Data in Focus / Economics / Inflation

By: Submissions

We don’t have a central bank meeting scheduled for this week, but we get the minutes of the latest ECB one. Following the upbeat remarks of President Draghi at the conference following that meeting, it will be interesting to see whether other ECB officials are on the same page. In the US, we have the CPIs for September. We get inflation data from Norway and Sweden as well.

Monday appears to be a quiet day in terms of economic releases. The only noteworthy data point we have on the calendar is German industrial production for August, which is expected to have rebounded 0.4% mom after sliding 1.1% in July.

On Tuesday, during the Asian morning, we get Australia’s NAB business survey for September. Although this is usually not a market mover, given the RBA’s emphasis on wage growth, we will take a close look at the Labour Costs sub-index. At its last two meetings, the Bank reiterated that wage growth remains low, but removed the part saying that this is likely to continue. Instead, officials noted that it has picked up a little and that further lift is expected. The NAB Labour Costs index accelerated to +1.3% qoq in the three months to August, from 0.9% in the three months to July and it would be interesting to see whether this improvement will continue as the RBA has suggested.

Tuesday, October 09, 2018

Will Crude Oil Follow Historical Patterns? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team, at Technical Traders Ltd., has been very interested in Oil recently as the current rally appears to have rotated lower near a top.  Our predictive modeling systems, predictive cycle analysis and other tools suggest Oil/Energy may be setting up for a downward price trend.  This may be an excellent opportunity for skilled traders to identify profitable trades as this trend matures.

Tuesday, October 09, 2018

Interest Rate Shock-Time to Find Out Who has been Swimming Naked / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Plunger

What Happened?  

Could everything have changed in a 24 hour period?  Apparently, Yes,   Over the span of 24 hours markets woke up and realized that the FED may be at the cusp of committing Policy Error.  Recently bonds have been teetering on the edge and this week Jerome Powell gave bonds a push off the ledge.  Bonds delivered a message and the stock market was listening.  Stocks got derailed along with bonds.

Yields blew out and sucked the air out of the stock market.  So why the big move in bonds?  Two reasons:

1. Less demand for LT bonds due to the higher cost of hedging caused by higher yields, higher USD and emerging markets dropping.
2. FED Chair Powell advertising he plans on being very aggressive with rates.  He plans on raising rates until something breaks.

Tuesday, October 09, 2018

Unintended Consequences of Expanding Sheffield's Best Ranking State Secondary Schools / Local / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

Sheffield's parents and their children have just 9 days left to submit their online secondary school place applications before the 18th October noon deadline, failing which they will have to submit a paper application to be delivered to by the 31st October. So it's better to deal with the submissions now to avoid missing these critical deadlines and thus being subject to ones child being placed in an out of catchment area school. Especially as demand for Sheffield best state schools remains extremely high, with all of the top ranking schools heavily over subscribed.

Tuesday, October 09, 2018

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast 2018 Update / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is an update to my crude oil price trend forecast for 2018. So firstly a recap of my forecast for for 2018 which since the start of this year has been for the oil price to target a trend to $80.

Tuesday, October 09, 2018

The Gold Standard: Protector of Individual Liberty and Economic Prosperity / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Antonius_Aquinas

The idea of a constitution and/or written legislation to secure individual rights so beloved by conservatives and among many libertarians has proven to be a myth. The US Constitution and all those that have been written and ratified in its wake throughout the world have done little to protect individual liberties or keep a check on State largesse. Instead, in the American case, the Constitution created a powerful central government which eliminated much of the sovereignty and independence that the individual states possessed under the Articles of Confederation.

While the US Constitution contains a “Bill of Rights,” the interpreter of those rights and protections thereof is the very entity which has enumerated them. It is only natural that decisions on whether, or if such rights have been violated will be in favor of the state. Moreover, nearly every amendment which has come in the wake of the Bill of Rights, has augmented federal power at the expense of the individual states and that of property owners.

Monday, October 08, 2018

Inflation Is Starting To Heat Up / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Gary_Savage

For years now analysts, and the media have been trying to convince everyone there is no inflation despite central banks massive quantitative easing programs. Of course this is ridiculous. They just choose to ignore where the inflation has manifested.

In 2008 inflation spiked in the commodity markets contributing to the severity of the last recession. One could even make a strong case inflation was the main cause of the recession. From 2011 until recently inflation has focused mostly in asset markets, especially the stock market. But it’s also appeared in healthcare, housing prices, insurance premiums, education, etc. So to claim there has been no inflation one has to willfully turn a blind eye to where the inflation is. We’ve actually had massive inflation, it’s just that it has run mostly in sectors that people don’t mind seeing inflation, namely the stock market. I think that is about to change.

Monday, October 08, 2018

Stock Market Seasonal Influence at Work / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
 
Intermediate trend –  Correction in progress.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends. 

Monday, October 08, 2018

Barrick Randgold Deal Breathes New Life into Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Richard_Mills

Despite having a rough summer, with a number of factors pushing gold below $1,200 an ounce (the high dollar, US economic growth, interest rate hikes, booming stock markets), the precious metal appears to be back in favor, with December gold futures closing Tuesday’s trading at $1,207 an ounce - a two-week high. In 10 minutes, Bloomberg reported, December gold contracts equal to 1.57 million ounces changed hands on the Comex in New York - almost 12 times the 100-day average volume at that time of day. The catalyst was fresh safe-haven demand owing to political uncertainty in Italy. A government official reportedly said Italy would be better off with its own currency, adding to doubts about the country’s fiscal situation. The EU has to pass Italy’s budget and many think it won’t cut the mustard.

“An IMF Financial Statistics Report reveals that Egypt recently bought gold for the first time since 1978, and that India, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines have re-entered the gold market after years-long absences. And Bloomberg reported that the Bank of Mongolia has purchased 12.2 tonnes of gold so far this year.