Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Sunday, December 20, 2009
U.S. Dollar Grinds Higher after Convincing Breakout / Currencies / US Dollar
Sometimes, as traders, we need to stop and do a double-take, especially when a long-depressed commodity or currency suddenly begins to rise sharply. In the case of the US Dollar index (DX), there were most likely thousands of double-takes, as disbelieving traders took a second, third and even a fourth glance at this key currency’s daily and weekly charts. Yes, this Dollar breakout appears to be the real deal, one destined to run even higher in the weeks just ahead, and it might pay for us to invest a little time now and see if we can anticipate the Dollar’s next area of significant overhead resistance.
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Sunday, December 20, 2009
Has the U.S. Dollar Bottomed? / Currencies / US Dollar
For much of 2009, the dollar has been the Tiger Woods of global currencies. There has been a relentless snowball of negative sentiment. And for a period of time, seemingly everyday something new, bigger and more shocking about the buck was being circulated through the media.
As Tiger can attest, when it rains, it pours …
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Sunday, December 20, 2009
Euro Single Currency and the Pseudo Gold Standard / Currencies / Euro
The Euros showing signs of stress lately. The Dollar climbed to $1.43, its highest in three months as the fiat race to the bottom continues. Greece's sovereign debt was downgraded with the third generation of a Papandreou residing at the helm in what looks to be another Greek catastrophe. Spain somehow continues to mask the mess it finds itself in. At some point the poison will inevitably seep through. Meanwhile with regards to the other PIIGS (yes thats two i's, Ireland and Italy) we find Ireland have launched their second cost cutting budget in an attempt to appease the other 'sounder' Euro states.
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Friday, December 18, 2009
U.S. Dollar Rally for Real? / Currencies / US Dollar
In this column in September, I wrote of how the U.S. dollar has been in a long bear market since 2001, while investors and traders were acting as if the dollar’s decline had just begun this year. Betting against the dollar had become the talk of the financial media, with “Sell the dollar, buy the Euro” the most popular advice from analysts.
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Friday, December 18, 2009
US Dollar Bulls Stirring, But Not Yet Wide Awake / Currencies / US Dollar
Over the last few months the US Dollar Index has continued to grind lower, recently reaching/eroding a long term 76.4% ‘support’ level. Subsequent to this there has been a positive reaction, with s/term bull signals beginning to mount.
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Thursday, December 17, 2009
Has the U.S. Dollar Bottomed? / Currencies / US Dollar
We have made a number of videos on the dollar index and in my latest video I show you some of the aspects we outlined in our previous video that have come to pass.
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Thursday, December 17, 2009
Euro Traders Look to German Ifo Business Climate Index / Currencies / Forex Trading
The German Information and Foschung (Ifo) Business Climate Index determines the business sentiment and conditions in the Euro-zone.The reading is concluded from survey of about 7,000 businesses.
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Thursday, December 17, 2009
Gulf Monetary Union to Launch Petro Currency, What Does It Mean? / Currencies / Fiat Currency
After years of threats, four of six countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) finally agreed to a monetary union with a single currency and central bank.
Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar opted in. The UAE and Oman opted out of the agreement.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
U.S. Dollar Remains Near Two Month High / Currencies / US Dollar
The US dollar fell back a bit Wednesday (December 16) morning as analysts believe the Fed is likely to leave its key interest rate at zero. New data on consumer prices show little change after 10 months of increases, suggesting inflation is not a big enough concern at this point to warrant an immediate rise in rates.
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Wednesday, December 16, 2009
U.S. Dollar Index, End to the Downtrend? / Currencies / US Dollar
Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the Dollar Index (symbol: $DXY). In our last look at the greenback I stated: "in all likelihood, this is the end of the down trend for the Dollar Index", and this is now fact! A weekly close over the high of the positive divergence bar (i.e., price bars marked in pink within gray ovals) has stymied the down trend. The highs of these positive divergence bars should act as resistance on the way back up.
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Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Paper Fiat Currencies Trampoline Jumping / Currencies / Fiat Currency
Watching the national paper fiat currencies rising and falling relative to one another can be interesting, but it is misleading for many of those who take it seriously. When the U.S. Dollar Index is rising, Americans are gaining in their standard of living as it takes fewer dollars to buy things, right? Not necessarily
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Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Currency Markets Wait on U.S. FOMC Interest Rate Decision / Currencies / Forex Trading
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on short term interest rate is due out tommorow (Dec 16) in the US.The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 14, 2009
Currency Traders Look to German ZEW Economic Sentiment Report / Currencies / Forex Trading
German traders await publication of the ZEW Economic Sentiment Report, which will be released tomorrow (Dec 14).
The report determines sentiment among German institutional investors, with analysts expecting a slight increase from last month's 50.10 to 50.20.
Saturday, December 12, 2009
What Could Lift the U.S. Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
The most recent employment data in the U.S. came in significantly better than what was expected. And the financial markets reacted in a different way this time. Interest rates went screaming higher, the stock market surged, gold fell and the dollar shot up.
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Friday, December 11, 2009
Sterling’s Politics v the U.S. Dollar and the Euro / Currencies / British Pound
The Macro Trader’s view:
This week’s pre-budget report was, broadly speaking, a disappointment. It has been judged broadly fiscal neutral, with all the tough spending decisions deferred until after the General election due by May/June of next year, despite assurances to the contrary by Chancellor Darling.
Friday, December 11, 2009
EUR/USD Bears Emerging From the Woods? / Currencies / Forex Trading
The 2009 uptrend in EUR/USD has struggled recently, coinciding with the test of a 76.4% recovery level. There seems to be something in the wind, but the bears need to produce more before we can confidently call for a pullback phase.
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Thursday, December 10, 2009
Economic Crossroads Means Opportunities for Local Currencies / Currencies / Fiat Currency
- The crisis of 2008-2009 exposed the U.S. financial system as being unstable, subject to abuse, and tending to favor the rich while putting everyone else deeper into debt.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Currency Trading for 10th December / Currencies / Forex Trading
Fundamental Analysis: US Census Bureau
The US Census Bureau will release the Core Retail Sales report tomorrow (Dec 11).
The report is a monthly measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the US, excluding auto. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the US economy .
Wednesday, December 09, 2009
U.S. Dollar Weaker Whilst Japanese Yen Gains Strength on Trendline Break / Currencies / Forex Trading
Fundamental Analysis: Trade Balance Index
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Trade Balance index report Tomorrow (Dec 10), which measures the difference in worth between exported and imported goods (exports minus imports).
This is the largest component of the US's balance of payments.
Tuesday, December 08, 2009
The Coming Cyclical Collapse of the U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
Ask not for whom the bell tolls
We are having our first winter blizzard, the windows were rattling all night. There are knee deep snow drifts in places. When I went out to feed the horse this morning, I found a coyote asleep in the hay. I guess he is a little bit deaf because he didn't jump up until I was on top of him. I don't know who was more scared. It was a most pitiful thing to see. Skin and bones. Mottled patchy fur with a hairless tail, except for a little tuft on the end.
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