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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Currencies

Friday, August 29, 2008

Chinese Yuan Remains Suppressed to Support Exporters / Currencies / China Currency Yuan

By: Michael_J_Kosares

(USAGOLD) CHINA -- Peter Grant writes: It's been slightly more than three years since China freed the yuan from its peg to the dollar. From the early 1990s until July of 2005, the USD-CNY exchange rate was fixed at 8.27, giving China a distinct and consistent advantage when it came to international trade.

The US was, and continues to be, the major consumer of goods manufactured in China. The artificially weak yuan resulted in the US trade deficit ballooning, while China amassed a monster trade surplus and considerable dollar reserves. In the years leading up to the float of the yuan, China was under considerable political pressure from the west.

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Currencies

Thursday, August 28, 2008

US Dollar Bottom Delusional Expectations in face of US Recession / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Delusional seems to be mental state of investment community as September approaches. Nonsensical talk of U.S. dollar having put in place a secular, or long-term, bottom is widespread. That EU economic growth rate might slow somewhat is interesting, but may be no more than statistical noise. That growth rate of Chinese economy might slow from “11+%” to “9%” is interesting, but is hardly a “dramatic” slowing.

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Currencies

Friday, August 22, 2008

Global Economic Rebalancing Signals US Dollar Bull Market / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Black_Swan

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKey News
• The U.K. economy stagnated unexpectedly in the second quarter, ending the nation's longest stretch of economic growth in more than a century. (Bloomberg)

British pound futures 60 min: News of stagnation not taken well. Ouch!

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Currencies

Friday, August 22, 2008

The Real US Dollar Crisis Is Ahead / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Mike_Stathis

I'm going to be brief here. For those who have been celebrating dollar rally, don't get too excited because it's only a standard retracement, much like the U.S. stock market has experienced since reaching lows a few weeks ago. Of course the market has a long way to go down as well.

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Currencies

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Forex Currency Market Forecasts for US Dollar / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: EWI

There is a reason why more websites talk about trading forex than trading stocks: Online currency trading is quickly becoming a mainstream activity.

Forex already is THE largest and most liquid market on the planet. Its daily volume is ten times larger than the combined daily turnover on all of the world's stock exchanges. And it's attracting more currency speculators every day.

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Currencies

Monday, August 18, 2008

The Reason for US Dollar Strength / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Black_Swan

If you’ve been wondering why the dollar has rallied so sharply, then stop wondering. The kind folks over at the Wall Street Journal have framed up the situation rather well. We’ve been keeping our Members up to speed on the relative game playing out in the currency market. Basically, even as the US economy fails to show any absolute improvement, the relative weakness from its competitors (primarily Europe and the United Kingdom) is driving their respective currencies lower and sending investment capital into the buck.

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Currencies

Monday, August 18, 2008

Strong US Dollar Investment Implications for Stocks and Gold / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Chris_Ciovacco

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMohamed El-Erian is the former highly successful manager of the Harvard endowment and current head of PIMCO. In an August 15, 2008 Bloomberg interview, he makes some comments which may help us to begin to understand the recent surge in the dollar in the face of less-than-ideal U.S. economic conditions.

"Currencies move not because they ought to but because they are allowed to. Previously rigid currencies are going to become more flexible because it is in their own interest."

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Currencies

Sunday, August 17, 2008

British Pound Crashes on Dovish BOE Inflation Report / Currencies / British Pound

By: Regent_Markets

The FTSE finished the week down slightly, but the real loser last week was UK PLC. The pound crashed as various factors come to a head. Up until July, the US Dollar was the currency the world loved to hate, last week it was sterling's turn to be punished. The Bank Of England inflation report was more dovish than expected, opening the doors to possible interest rate cuts before the year is out.

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Currencies

Sunday, August 17, 2008

The US Dollar Bull Market / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe US Dollar ended the week with a sharp rally that confirmed the recent breakout and the base building that began following the March 2008 low of 70.70, analysis at the time suggested that the Dollar was heavily oversold and projected a target towards $78, which is now in reach following the USD Index close of 77.15 on Friday.

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Currencies

Sunday, August 17, 2008

US Dollar's Dramatic Rise Helps Level Currency Playing Field / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJack Crook writes: After a dramatic two weeks in the currency market, I figured now is a good time to run through the recent action. Plus, I'll give you my outlook for the major currencies making the most noise. Let's get started ...

A Good Couple of Weeks for the Buck
I'll keep it simple: The U.S. dollar and the U.S. economy have undergone no structural changes. Their relatively improved status seems to rest mostly on the worsening state of their major competitors — especially the euro.

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Currencies

Friday, August 15, 2008

Yikes! Major Reversal in Fortunes for the US Dollar and Gold / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Black_Swan

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTell us again about the safe haven qualities of gold? It has been going straight down ever since Russia decided to spread its wings again. Maybe it’s just a correction. But maybe it is, as it has always seemed to us, that gold is only a reflection of global purchasing power that simply ebbs and flows with the world’s money and its safe have reputation is just that, reputation. And in case anyone was confused as to the world’s money; it is the financial gurus’ favorite whipping boy—the good old US dollar.

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Currencies

Friday, August 15, 2008

The Strong US Dollar Illusion / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Peter_Schiff

Economists who now see American troubles spreading around the world are predicting that foreign central banks will ignore the gathering inflation threat and follow the Fed down the rate cutting path. Similarly, they argue that since the downturn began here, the U.S. recovery will likely be underway while the rest of world is still decelerating. These assumptions have prompted a rally in the dollar, a sell-off in gold, commodities and foreign stocks, and have cast doubts on the ability of foreign economies to “decouple” from the United States. Investors should not take the bait.

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Currencies

Friday, August 15, 2008

US Dollar Short-Term Rebalancing of Expectations, Long Term Risk / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Joseph_Brusuelas

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRecent price action in the foreign exchange market in our estimation is a function of a short-term rebalancing in expectations of global growth and demand for commodities. When combined with the pause in the rate hike campaign at the European Central Bank and growing uncertainty regarding the prospects for economic growth in the United States dollar bulls that have been lurking in the shadows for the past several years have re-emerged with gusto over the past two weeks. Although, the late summer rally in the dollar that has seen its value increase roughly 8% against the Euro, the case for a sustainable reversal in the fortunes of the greenback is neither persuasive nor compelling.

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Currencies

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

The Case For and Against the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Axel_Merk

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe have been cautioning for some time that volatility in the currency markets may increase further, even from the elevated levels of the past year. Nonetheless, violent market action is nerve rattling, even to seasoned investors. An uptick in volatility tends to be associated with an unwinding of leveraged positions. This is also the case this time, but the types of trades being unwound look very different from those just a few months ago when the “carry trade” was the talk of the day. To shed some light on recent activity, we will focus on some key forces we believe act on the dollar and the currency markets.

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Currencies

Sunday, August 10, 2008

Spreading Global Economic Weakness Is Positive for US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJack Crooks writes: Yesterday, the dollar rallied hard against the euro. And today I want to tell you what I think is happening. Let's start with a question ...

What happened to decoupling, the idea that other economies were immune to weakness in the U.S.?

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Currencies

Saturday, August 09, 2008

U.S. Dollar Soars Triggering Major Currency Breakouts / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBloomberg is reporting Euro Falls the Most in 8 Years on Reduced Bets for Higher Rate .
The euro fell the most in almost eight years, pushing the currency to a six-month low against the U.S. dollar, as traders pared bets the European Central Bank will raise interest rates as the economy slows.

The euro dropped below $1.50 for the first time since February after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet yesterday said economic growth will be "particularly weak'' through the third quarter.

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Currencies

Friday, August 08, 2008

US Dollar Bottoming? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: David_Cai

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIs the recent upward movement in the dollar a signal that it has bottomed out, and will now move back to a higher level? Or is it just a bull trap for those who are long the dollar?

Despite reports of cheaper prices for international travelers to the States due to the depreciated dollar, it would be wrong to safely conclude that U.S. goods are now so cheap at the existing exchange rate that the dollar must appreciate from its current level. Overall the price of American products is still too high to ease the massive trade imbalance between the U.S. and the rest of the world.

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Currencies

Friday, August 08, 2008

ECB Rate Freeze Boosts US Dollar Long-term Trend Change Probability / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBloomberg is reporting Euro Slumps to Five-Month Low on Reduced Bets for Higher Rates .
The euro slumped to a five-month low against the dollar as traders pared bets that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates due to a slowing economy.

The euro also fell to a three-week low versus Japan's currency after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said economic growth will be "particularly weak" through the third quarter. The dollar headed for its biggest weekly gain against the yen in almost two months as oil dropped 18 percent from a record. The Australian dollar declined for a ninth day, the longest stretch since 1980, as futures show the central bank will cut borrowing costs this year.

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Currencies

Friday, August 08, 2008

Euro and US Dollar Headed Lower as Yen Carry Trade Continues to Unwind / Currencies / Yen Carry Trade

By: Richard_Gorton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAn Elliott Wave 3 Down Commences In The EUR/JPY
The EUR/JPY fell lower today on increasing risk aversion to Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, AIG, Fannie Mae, And Freddie Mac. It also fell lower with a massive sell off of the Chinese stocks.

Today's fall in the EUR/JPY has set in motion an Elliot Wave 3 Down in this currency pair, which will now cause disinvestment from stocks globally, not just from the BRICs, like it has been doing.

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Currencies

Tuesday, August 05, 2008

US Dollar / Crude Oil Inverse Correlation Returns … / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Black_Swan

Over the last year or so almost everyone’s been pointing to the inverse relationship between the US dollar and crude oil. In a special issue of Currency Snapshot we included a chart that showed the recent breakdown of this correlation. Here’s an updated chart:

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