Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Tuesday, December 08, 2009
U.S. Dollar/ Japanese Yen on a Knife Edge / Currencies / Forex Trading
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will release its decision on short term interest rate Tomorrow (Dec 9).
The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
Monday, December 07, 2009
U.S. Dollar Index Bottom? / Currencies / US Dollar
It's Monday, and there is no better place to start the week with the only asset that has mattered for the past 8 months - the Dollar. Although Friday's job report brought a spike in the Dollar Index, the down trend remains intact. However, the likelihood of the downtrend ending leading to a counter trend rally or consolidation is now as high as it has been in months.
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Saturday, December 05, 2009
Has the Japanese Yen Topped? / Currencies / Japanese Yen
The Japanese yen has been the best performing currency over the past two-and-a-half years. Since the unraveling of the subprime mortgage market and the subsequent peak in the carry trade, the yen has soared 38 percent against the U.S. dollar, 21 percent against the euro, 41 percent against the British pound and 23 percent against the well-loved high-yielder, the Australian dollar.
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Thursday, December 03, 2009
Japanese Yen Reaches 14 Year High Against U.S. Dollar / Currencies / Japanese Yen
The US dollar continues to find major low points to reach against major foreign currencies and other speculative investments. Gold is now over $1,200 with some top analysts calling for a quick move through the $2,000 level in the near future. Oil remains near $80.
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Thursday, December 03, 2009
Bear Clouds in EUR/JPY Begin to Precipitate / Currencies / Forex Trading
For the last few months the EUR/JPY cross rate has been range-trading, unable to push above key overhead resistance. Just recently there was a clear break of a key support area, tipping the scales in the shorter term bears’ favour.
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Thursday, December 03, 2009
Currency Markets Move in Tight Range Ahead of U.S. Unemployment Rate Report / Currencies / Forex Trading
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly Unemployment Rate report tomorrow (Dec 4). The report is a measure of the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work in the US.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 02, 2009
North Koreans Panic Over Devalued Fiat Currency Revaluation / Currencies / Fiat Currency
The government of North Korea has launched the denomination of the national currency, the won. All citizens of the country will have to exchange their money for new notes. The nation will cut two zeros: 100 wons will thus have the value of 1 won.
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Wednesday, December 02, 2009
How Could I Forget the Only Market Chart that Matters? / Currencies / US Dollar
Figure 1 is a weekly chart of the Dollar Index. This is the same chart I have been showing since June, 2009 - prior to the Dollar Index unraveling. Last week there was a weekly close (price bar with down red arrows) below the low of the immediate positive divergence bar at 75.20. Closes below positive divergence bars (price bars highlighted in pink with gray oval) tend to lead to selling as traders expecting a reversal close out their losing positions. The down trend continues, and as the data shows, there is a high likelihood of the downward move accelerating.
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Wednesday, December 02, 2009
U.S. Dollar Implications of Dubai Debt Jitters / Currencies / US Dollar
Thanksgiving eve, Dubai World, Dubai’s state-owned development company, rattled the world by releasing a statement that it seeks a moratorium on its debt and interest payments until May 2010. The credit crisis is not last year’s nightmare - it has merely entered a new phase. We look at the implications for the U.S. dollar.
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Wednesday, December 02, 2009
Currency Markets Look To ECB Interest Rate Decision / Currencies / Forex Trading
The EU Central Bank will announce the new monthly short term interest rate tomorrow.
The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
Tuesday, December 01, 2009
Currency Markets Look To Tommorows Nonfarm Payroll Data / Currencies / Forex Trading
The U.S Department of Labor will release The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change report tomorrow (Dec 2)
The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change of nonfarm private employment, based on a subset of aggregated and anonymous payroll data that represents approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients.
Monday, November 30, 2009
Run on the U.S. Dollar ....Soon / Currencies / US Dollar
Porter Stansberry writes: It's one of those numbers that's so unbelievable you have to actually think about it for a while...
Within the next 12 months, the U.S. Treasury will have to refinance $2 trillion in short-term debt. And that's not counting any additional deficit spending, which is estimated to be around $1.5 trillion.
Monday, November 30, 2009
U.S. Dollar Set To Surprise by Falling to Test All Time Low / Currencies / US Dollar
The dollar ($) is set to surprise the few remaining speculators that think it can't happen by falling further straight away, possibly taking it down to test all time lows at 71. Here, we are talking about the possibility of a more disorderly decline in the $ developing as a result of gold progressing into a parabolic rise, primarily predicated on year-end hedge fund buying into December. First it will be this that takes precious metals higher into year-end, and then the rally could continue for numerous other reasons, not the least of which being a lack of physical, which appears to be a growing concern.
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Monday, November 30, 2009
How to Find the Trend in the Forex Markets / Currencies / Forex Trading
Here is the fastest and easiest way to tell the trend in the foreign exchange markets.
In today's video I'm going to share with you a wonderful way to look at the forex markets and determine which way they are headed in a matter of seconds. We'll be looking at three different cross rates and how they all correlate together in a way that I think may surprise you.
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Monday, November 30, 2009
AUD/USD Key Reversal Week Bearing Fruit / Currencies / Forex Trading
In the FX Specialist Guide we had pointed out a Key Reversal Week that potentially boded bad for bulls. We still believe this to be the case and signs begin to emerge on the Daily chart that back this up.
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Monday, November 30, 2009
Japanese Yen Surge, a Macro Traders View / Currencies / Forex Trading
The Yen is a currency that has recently benefited from periods of risk aversion. When stocks have been sold the Dollar has rallied on safe-haven buying and the Yen has strengthened too. Even though the Japanese economy has suffered its own damaging recession, traders see the Yen as a refuge from periods of great uncertainty.
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Monday, November 30, 2009
ISM Manufacturing Index Report to Impact Currency Trends / Currencies / Forex Trading
The U.S. Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will publish its monthly Manufacturing Index tomorrow (Dec 1).
The ISM index is the result of a monthly survey of over 400 companies in 20 industries throughout the 50 states, which tracks the amount of manufacturing activity that occurred in the previous month. The Index is considered a very important and trusted economic measure.
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Alternative World Reserve Currencies to the U.S. Dollar Part 2 / Currencies / Fiat Currency
In last week’s Money and Markets column, I analyzed the three major liquid currencies as prospective alternatives to the U.S. dollar: The Japanese yen, the British pound and the euro. Fundamentally, they all fell short.
As I explained then, these three don’t offer any appeal over the dollar. That’s because the currency market is a beauty contest where the least ugly wins. And not only is the dollar the least ugly, but it offers refuge when fear and uncertainty grip the markets.
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Saturday, November 28, 2009
U.S. Dollar Index May Hold Some Nasty Surprises for Carry Trade Participants / Currencies / US Dollar
Summary and Conclusions - The US Dollar Index is showing signs of wanting to bottom out and this has seriously adverse implications for those who have been speculating with US Dollar carry trades. It may also be pointing to the imminent resumption of the Primary Bear Trend in Industrial Equities. The gold price may consolidate at these levels within the context of a Primary Bull Market. i.e. Both the US Dollar Index and the Gold Price might be argued to be in Primary Bull Markets.
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Friday, November 27, 2009
The Yen's Perfect Storm / Currencies / Japanese Yen
The Yen's Perfect Storm escalated overnight amid the combination of unexpected decline in Japanese unemployment and falling global equity futures following the Dubai fallout. FX traders shall be eager to find out how Japanese officials will follow up on their threats to stabilize their soaring currency in the midst of the latest bout of global risk aversion, which was bound to emerge considering equity indices' largely-dollar driven gains (see previous notes on unsustainability of currency-driven stock rallies).
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