Thursday, October 20, 2016
China's insane Housing Market Will Tumble and Crash in 2017 / Housing-Market / China Housing Market
By: Dee_Woo
Summary
* What’s behind the property fever in China?
* The financial truth of the destocking of China’s property market.
* Use quantitative analysis to predict when the bubbles of China’s housing market will burst.
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Thursday, October 20, 2016
The Chart That Exposes Stock Market Bull Rally As B.S. / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Barry_M_Ferguson
The current bull market in stocks is old by bull standards. It started in early 2009 when Ben Bernanke’s Fed staged a coup, assumed command of the US economy, and by default, the government. After all, they are following the strategy of controlling the money supply and therefore the government of a nation. The central bankers have initiated several quantitative easing periods, reduced interest rates at their bank to zero (thus affecting all interest rate coupons downstream), participated in multiple efforts to steal money from citizens and reward it to corrupt, fraudulent, bankrupt banker friends, and they continue to manipulate asset prices through action and rhetoric. The result has been a bull market in stock prices. That makes the idiots of the world believe in the ‘economic recovery’.
Thursday, October 20, 2016
Donald Trump Bounces Going into 3rd and Final US Presidential Election Debate / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Trumps campaign has been sinking like a stone ever since he lost the 1st debate to Hillary which was soon followed by a barrage of near daily bad news stories across the mainstream media that lately prompted Trump to proclaim that there was an establishment conspiracy to fix the election for Hillary.
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
The Fed Has Made Another Massive Policy Error / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: John_Mauldin
I would argue that the Great Recession was a result of a massive monetary policy error. The Fed kept rates too low for too long, which—when coupled with lax or no regulation in the mortgage markets—resulted in a housing bubble and a crash. This then bled over to global markets.
I believe we are again suffering the effects of a massive monetary policy error. The error has already been committed, but we have just begun to endure the consequences.
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Wednesday, October 19, 2016
The Fed Destroyed US Boomers’ Retirement Dreams / Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement
By: John_Mauldin
The more I think about where the “monetary policy community” of academic elites has brought us, the angrier I get. It’s been a long time since I’ve been this passionately upset about something.
Almost everything the Fed did to us since 2008 falls into two broad categories: interest rate repression and quantitative easing.
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Wednesday, October 19, 2016
Demographics Are the Biggest Drag on the US Economy / Economics / Demographics
By: John_Mauldin
BY SAMUEL RINES: The US economy has slowed, and the reasons for the sluggish growth cause heated arguments among market participants and economists alike. There are two outspoken camps: “the good ole days are coming back” and “this is normal.” The camps have little in common, except yelling at one another.
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
Gold doesn’t care who wins the US Election / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Michael_J_Kosares
Founder, USAGOLD and author of The ABCs of Gold Investing – How to Protect and Build Your Wealth with Gold
“Gold prices have enjoyed a hefty climb so far this year as the market continues to guess the pace and timing of the next U.S. interest-rate hike, but the battle for the U.S. presidency is set to take center stage as Election Day nears. And it doesn’t matter if Republican Party nominee Donald Trump or Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton moves on to be the next president of the United States—gold is likely to come out a winner, George Milling-Stanley, head of gold investment strategy at State Street Global Advisors.” –– Myra Saefong/MarketWatch/10-19-2016
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Wednesday, October 19, 2016
Attention Please: Phase Two of the Gold and Silver Train Now leaving the Station. All Aboard? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Peter_Degraaf
Phase One began in January 2016, and slowed down from July until early October. (Charts in this commentary are courtesy Stockcharts.com, unless indicated).
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
What Do Declining Corporate Earnings Keep Telling Us? / Companies / Corporate Earnings
By: Rodney_Johnson
‘Tis the season. Earnings season, that is, and I don’t think we’re getting any presents.This week Alcoa kicked off the third-quarter earnings announcement season. The next couple of weeks will bring an onslaught of numbers, excuses, deflections, and projections. Company spokesmen and CEOs will spend time explaining why their industry is soft, and how better times are just ahead.
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Wednesday, October 19, 2016
Can we have a Stock Market Flash Crash? / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
Could a flash crash happen in the next two days? The answer is yes. The Cycles Model implies that today may be the focal point for the two-week delayed Master Cycle low.
However, as you can see, only Waves 1 and 2 are complete. I am not sure that Waves 3, 4 and 5 can be finished in a day, so Thursday afternoon may be the ideal time…for a flash crash low. Here are the reasons.
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Wednesday, October 19, 2016
GDX Gold Stocks Chart of the Day / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Gary_Savage
GDX has now completed a weekly swing barring a complete reversal the rest of the week. This deep into an intermediate decline a swing stacks the odds heavily in favor of the correction being over. The metals should now rally for the next 3-4 months.
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Wednesday, October 19, 2016
The Limits of Empirical Economics / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
Two separate economic developments over the last 100 years have caused macroeconomics to regress instead of progress. The first is the Keynesian, or more accurately Malthusian, notion of aggregate demand. The second is Friedman’s positive empiricism emphasising the importance of empirical verification of economic theory.
According to positive empiricism, adherence to economic facts is the only way to validate economic theories.
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
‘Trumpophobia’ and the American Election - Impacts on Global Peace and Development and Islamic World / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016
By: Dr_R_M_Mathew
Hillary Clinton has a long association with the corridors of Power and she is well-versed in the art of Statecraft as the brain of Obama Administration, besides her background as a lawyer for her advantage in this election. Above all, she has a wonderful capacity to mobilize billions as election fund even using the influence of Barrack Obama. Obama has a vested interest in placing Hillary in his position, as he aims at putting his wife as the Secretary of State besides mobilizing billions for his foundation. That is why; the Obamas have so aggressive to attack Donald Trump.
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Wednesday, October 19, 2016
How Will the Election Outcome Impact Precious Metals? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: MoneyMetals
By Clint Siegner writes: Metals investors wonder what this presidential election will mean for gold and silver markets. Since Nixon closed the gold window in 1971 and the years of price inflation that followed, presidents have largely ignored gold, the Federal Reserve, and other issues related to sound money. Today, the devaluation of the Federal Reserve Note – the explosion of debt and the eternal deficits which enrich bankers and the political class at the expense of the rest of us – is getting harder to ignore.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 19, 2016
Stock Market Short Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Ed_Carlson
We have been waiting for a bounce into the high forecast by the Hybrid Lindsay model and it looks to have come on Tuesday. Cycles warned that the high might come on the late side of the margin of error but internals now appear set-up to give us that rally early this week. Bears don't have much to worry about, however, as the high is expected no later than Wednesday.
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Wednesday, October 19, 2016
How to Successfully Trade a Stock Market Crash - Black Monday October 19th 1987 / InvestorEducation / Financial Crash
By: Nadeem_Walayat
It's that time of the year again when the stock market doom merchants are at their most vocal as they focus on the historic apex of the darkest month for stocks of the year, October the 19th, the 29th anniversary of the 1987 Black Monday stock market crash that few saw coming but ever since many expect to repeat. So regardless of what the stock market has actually done thus far, by this point of the year the perma bears can always be seen literally jumping up and down like demented rabbits proclaiming that a crash is once more imminent as they point to a myriad of harbingers of the stock market apocalypse. So it is no wonder that October tends to be an unusually irrational month for where stock market expectations are concerned, and never more so than for this year given the chaos of this years US election election cycle that probably features the worst two candidates in US election history which ensures that America loses no matter who wins.
Tuesday, October 18, 2016
Tesla, Apple and Uber Push Lithium Prices Even Higher / Commodities / Lithium
By: OilPrice_Com
After more than tripling in price this year, Lithium is no longer that dull commodity we take for granted in our consumer electronics: It’s the commodity powering the next, undeniable energy revolution. The tight supply picture emerging as electric cars, mega-batteries and massive energy storage solutions become the cornerstones of our lives could be on the edge of turning new lithium explorers into the next barons.
Lithium now appears to be at a crucial moment in time: The moment when profits in the industry begin to elevate market valuations, and when consolidation starts to boost gains for all those junior explorers who have been scooping up land in the world’s lithium sweet spots.
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Tuesday, October 18, 2016
Silver Price Discovery – It’s Still a Fixing / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Absurdities continue in the world of derivative or electronic or paper silver. In what will someday be viewed as the monumental public relations miracle that it is, the silver fix has been transplanted into just another body riddled with cancer.
Below I’ve collected and commented on one of the most prevalent stories characterizing the announcement.
The essence of this is moderately transparent. The banks need to avoid more public relations disasters. They are certainly in for enough as it is.
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Tuesday, October 18, 2016
Silver, Debt, and Deficits – From an Election Year Perspective / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: DeviantInvestor
It is an election year. We should anticipate 8 years of upcoming trauma, following nearly 8 years of “hope and change,” after 8 years of “no nation building,” after 8 years of “I did not have sexual relations with that woman.”
Examine the official US national debt in 8 fiscal year increments (10/1/84 – 9/30/92 etc.) using linear and log scales.
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Tuesday, October 18, 2016
SPX Making Irregular Waves, Making Another Large Retracement / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX Premarket appears to be headed for the 50% retracement level for the prior decline and the probable top of Wave (a) at 2142.45. We have a probable repeat of Wave 1, where the impulse is smaller than the total decline, including Wave [b].