Saturday, September 24, 2016

Stock Market Clear and Present Danger! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The cycle since 2009 has been different from other market cycles, throughout history, in only one significant manner. That having been said, it is the Global Central Banks that have intentionally pushed interest rates to zero and below. This encouraged investors to speculate in the equity markets which have now become ‘dangerously overvalued, overbought, as well as ‘over bullish’ extremes according to all measures. In my opinion, this has “deferred” and not eliminated the disruptive unwinding of this “speculative” episode.

Saturday, September 24, 2016

Global Bonds: Why Our Analyst Says Things Just Got "Monumental" / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: EWI

Our interest rates strategist explains more in this new interview

Peter DeSario, editor of our Interest Rates Pro Service, explains why this was a "monumental" week in the bond markets -- and offers a preview of which markets he's keeping his eye on.

Saturday, September 24, 2016

MI6 to Recruit 1/3rd More Redundant Intelligence Agents Destined to Lose AI Cyber Wars / Politics / Intelligence Agencies

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Britain's secret service, MI6 is about to see their number of intelligence agents boosted by 1/3rd in attempt to fight and counter future digital cyber terror attacks and wars. This is in addition to the expansion of other arms of Britain's secret police such as GCHQ and MI5.

However, the government is making the SAME mistake it always tends to make when it engages in such job creation exercises for bureaucratic institutions in that they are ALWAYS looking in the rear view mirror of what happened in the past and thus how they could have averted for instance 9/11 or 7/7 if they had x,y,z number of personnel in place and then go ahead and implement such capacity expansion a decade after the fact, whilst failing to realise that the nature of the threat has moved on.

Friday, September 23, 2016

The Fed’s Market Myth is Unraveling Before Our Eyes… Bloodbath Coming / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Graham_Summers

So much for the narrative.

The latest myth being promoted in economic circles is that median income growth exploded higher last year. The people promoting this myth obviously didn’t bother reading the actual report and don’t understand what the word “median” means.

A big hat tip goes to John Williams who actually DID read the report and found that the Census has adjusted its methodology to include what interest income WOULD be if rates were not at zero.

Friday, September 23, 2016

Where Did All the Money Go? / Stock-Markets / Market Manipulation

By: David_Galland

Dear Earthlings,

As we’re still readjusting to life in a small Argentine pueblo miles from anywhere, I’ve asked Stephen McBride, my associate and now neighbor (he just moved here), to take the reins for the bulk of this week’s assemblage of news, analysis, and wry commentary about the never-boring antics of the human ape.

You may recall Stephen’s wonderful exposé on George Soros, an article that continues to bounce around the Internet doing good service by alerting people to Soros’s nefarious deeds.

Friday, September 23, 2016

Pension Shortfalls Could Be 4X To 7X Greater Than Reported / Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement

By: Dan_Amerman

• The reported shortfall for the California Public Employees Retirement System (Calpers) is $139 billion - but that is based upon investment assumptions that may be unlikely in current markets.
• As developed using a 40 year financial model and recent actual results, the real present value shortfall could be in the $500 billion to $1 trillion range, which is 4X to 7X as great as reported.
• Calpers is used as a real world example to explore nationwide issues that could change our financial futures - and our choices - as investors, taxpayers and pension beneficiaries.

Friday, September 23, 2016

Gold Unleashed by the Fed / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold surged sharply this week after the Yellen Fed yet again chickened out on raising its benchmark interest rate.  Gold-futures speculators’ irrational fear of Fed rate hikes has been a major drag on gold.  And rate-hike risks just plummeted in the coming months, since the Fed can’t risk acting heading into this year’s critical US presidential election.  So gold’s next major upleg was likely just unleashed by the Fed.

Oddly, Wall Street’s expectations for a rate hike at this week’s latest meeting of the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee were surprisingly high.  The interest-rate target directly controlled by the FOMC is the federal-funds rate.  Commercial banks are required to hold reserves at the Fed.  They lend these reserves to other banks overnight in the federal-funds market, at the FOMC’s federal-funds rate.

Friday, September 23, 2016

Gold around U.S Presidential Elections / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

In previous articles, we examined gold's performance in the presidential election cycles. The only relatively reliable conclusion we were able to draw from the long-term analysis is that the post-election year is the worst for the price of gold in the whole cycle. Let's now focus on gold's short-term dynamics around election time.

The two charts below show the dynamics of gold prices thirty trading days before Election Day and thirty days after.

Friday, September 23, 2016

Here’s Why Eastern Europe Is Doomed / Politics / Eastern Europe

By: John_Mauldin

BY LILI BAYER : The EU is falling apart. Europe’s exporters face a crisis. Its southern economies are troubled. Germany has economic challenges of its own. But as Europe’s crises deepen, something else will become more important.

The erosion of the Schengen zone could hurt Eastern members’ ties with the West. Their economic and social stability depend on access to the EU. This includes funding, investments, trade, and labor markets. So the East is sensitive to economic changes in Western Europe and the continued fracturing of the bloc.

Friday, September 23, 2016

Nasdaq NDX 100 Big Cap Tech Breakout ? / Stock-Markets / Tech Stocks

By: Rambus_Chartology

Below is a daily chart which shows the NDX 100 big cap tech stock index trading at a new all time high today.

Friday, September 23, 2016

Are Your Savings Safe? U.N. Warns Next Financial Crisis Imminent / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2016

By: GoldCore

Savings Guarantee? U.N. Warns Next Financial Crisis Seems Imminent

“There remains a risk of deflationary spirals in which capital flight, currency devaluations and collapsing asset prices would stymie growth and shrink government revenues. As capital begins to flow out, there is now a real danger of entering a third phase of the financial crisis …”

Friday, September 23, 2016

Positive Stock Market Session Ends with Strong Finish / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Harry_Boxer

The markets had a strong day on Thursday, with a gap up, run up, consolidation, they pulled back, held, and started back up near the end of the session. Many of our stocks did very well. We have quite a few to go over, so let’s get started.

Clovis Oncology Inc (CLVS) had a nice day, up 2.68, or 7.5%, to 38.36, on 6.5 million shares traded. You can see that it’s into the gap, and my target half way through the gap is as high as 47, but let it get through 40 first. I do believe this stock has room to extend. It has 3.5 days to cover.

Friday, September 23, 2016

Hedonics, Food, and Pluralistic Ignorance / Economics / Inflation

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Inflation is alive and well – despite what we hear from the mainstream. Due to pluralistic ignorance, it persists much longer than anyone would have ever predicted.

From Wikipedia:

Pluralistic ignorance 

“In social psychology, pluralistic ignorance is a situation in which a majority of group members privately reject a norm, but incorrectly assume that most others accept it, and therefore go along with it.[1] This is also described as ‘no one believes, but everyone thinks that everyone believes’.”

Friday, September 23, 2016

Possible Stock Market Aggressive Sell for the Brave / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX made its high at 10:35 am. Although it has not gone higher, it has only taken baby steps lower, so it may not be “out of the woods,” yet. As noted earlier, it has achieved at least one Wave relationship, but has not filled the gap.

I cannot give an “all clear” for conservative investors, since the SPX has not declined back beneath its 50-day Moving Average and the NYSE Hi-Lo Index went considerably higher today. However, those who are aggressive may consider at least a partial position today.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Germany Has No Power to Solve the European Crisis / Politics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

BY LILI BAYER : Germany faces a growing number of crises, both at home and abroad. But it has limited power to address them. The country needs stability in Ukraine. It wants to influence Russia. And Germany needs to deal with the influx of refugees from Turkey. This requires an agreement with that country.

Recently, the German leadership met with officials in Europe and abroad to address these crises. On Sept. 15, the foreign ministers of Germany and France toured Ukraine's war-torn east. In August, the German foreign minister went to Moscow to discuss the problems in Ukraine and Syria.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

The Last Time We Saw This Was Before World War II / Politics / GeoPolitics

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : Europe and Asia, taken together, are the heart of humanity. That’s where 5 billion out of the 7 billion people in the world live. When instability comes to this part of the world, it shakes humanity.

That’s why the geopolitical pattern developing in Eurasia is so ominous. It is like a hurricane—absorbing huge amounts of energy from the ocean, using that energy to build a vast, integrated structure, and then destroying whatever it touches.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

France and Germany Call to TTIP End Trade Talks with the US / Politics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

BY ANTONIA COLIBASANU : The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations have failed. The TTIP is the trade agreement between the European Union (EU) and the United States. German Economic Affairs Minister Sigmar Gabriel and French Foreign Trade Minister Matthias Fekl have both called for an end to talks.

This failure confirms our prediction that the EU's power is decaying. Moreover, this turn of events accents the division between Western and Eastern Europe.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

The Implications of the Italian Banking Crisis Could Be Disastrous / Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2016

By: John_Mauldin

BY GEORGE FRIEDMAN : The current Italian banking crisis carries with it the possibility of bank failures. The consequences of these failures pyramid the crisis because of European Union regulations. Essentially, the position of the European Union is that the European Central Bank (ECB) and the central banks of member countries cannot bail out failing banks by recapitalizing them—in other words, injecting money to keep them solvent.

EU regulations go so far as to prohibit Italy from using its state funds to shield investors and shareholders of banks from losses, unless there is risk of “very extraordinary” systemic stress. Rather, the EU has adopted a bail-in strategy.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Here’s How the EU’s Crisis Is Tearing NATO Apart / Politics / European Union

By: John_Mauldin

BY KAMRAN BOKHARI : NATO has been searching for relevance for a generation. Now, as the EU faces a meltdown, the fate of NATO is even more unclear.

European nations are more and more discontent with the EU. The aftermath of Brexit, and the banking crisis that has spread from Italy to Germany, only inflame the tension. As a result, major European powers are less likely to play a bigger role in NATO.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

What's Keeping the Stock Market Up? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

There appears to be some unfinished business in the NDX. It appears that the Cycle Top may be challenged yet one more time before reversing down. From there, it should sync up with the SPX in their declines.

Wave 5 = 1 and [v] = [i] at 4903.00 or slightly higher, but Cycle Top resistance is strong. In addition, Wave (C) equals Wave (A) at 4865, so the Wave relationships may limit the upside. Whether it goes all the way is to be determined, but it appears that NDX will be having an influence on the markets until it is finished.