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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 04, 2020

How to Stay Ahead of Price Turns in the U.S. Long Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

This method of analysis applies to any widely traded financial market

Back in August, the volatility index for Treasury debt was at an all-time low, indicating record commitment to the idea the markets would continue to calmly rise.

Indeed, here's a July 27 Bloomberg headline:

Bond Investors Are Getting Fresh Reasons to Stay Record Bullish

Bloomberg mentioned U.S.-China tensions as a reason that investors would seek a safe haven in bonds, hence, pushing prices higher.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 04, 2020

A Golden Election Promise / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth explains why he believes gold will be the biggest winner in the election.

There's no shortage of prognostications or conjecture about the U.S. election.

Of course, everyone has an opinion.

Some like red, some like blue, some like neither.

Last week's volatility in stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities is a clear signal that markets are uneasy. They hate uncertainty.

If the election's outcome is less than clear, then volatility will be around for a while, and probably even intensify.

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Personal_Finance

Wednesday, November 04, 2020

Amazing Yet Frightening Festivals Across The World You Must Check Out Today / Personal_Finance / Travel & Holidays

By: Sumeet_Manhas

...

 


ElectionOracle

Tuesday, November 03, 2020

US Election CHAOS! Trump to Contest Result, Refuse to Concede Defeat if Biden Wins! / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Are you ready for the Trump Show Election Chaos Season Finale?

Voting day has finally arrived and the final polls have Biden way ahead of Trump ahead of today's vote. Though of course the opinion polls are not very accurate, tend to be skewed against conservatives due to liberal polling bias, so the actual result is very unlikely to be what the pollsters and pundits expect, as was the case in 2016. Whereas my election matrix analysis forecast which did accurately forecast Trump winning in 2016, does conclude in Biden winning in 2020 on about 49.1% against 46.4% for Trump, and securing more than 300 electoral college votes.

However, in the face of defeat it does not look like Trump is going to go quietly into the night, and it all has to do with the counting of millions of mail in ballots, in which respect Biden has a 3-1 advantage over Trump as many more Democrats heeded coronavirus warnings and chose to vote early by mail rather than stand in long voting lines at the polling stations. Which means on election night the advantage will be in Trumps favour as many mail in ballots will only be counted on the 4th and 5th of November, so whatever lead Trump has on election night will be whittled away in Biden's favour.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, November 03, 2020

Stock Market SPY Channeling lower Ahead of US Election Result / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

From a simple technical standpoint, we’ve seen a number of recent breakdowns in the SPY related to Fibonacci Price Theory and Price Gap Theory.  One of the most critical components of the recent 60+ days price activity in the SPY is the failed new high on October 12.  This failed attempt to rally above the previous high price level, near 358.82, suggests a broader market price decline has setup (a downtrend).

SPY 240 MINUTE CHART

After the failed new high peak on October 12, a series of new downside price gaps can be seen in the SPY chart below as price accelerated downward.  These unfilled price gaps represent price acceleration to the downside and will eventually exhaust – creating a new momentum base/bottom.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 03, 2020

China’s New 15-Year Vision: ‘Dual Circulation’ to Sustainable Growth / Economics / China Economy

By: Dan_Steinbock

While the coronavirus fallout is still escalating in Western economies, China’s rebound has begun. Global recovery requires multilateral cooperation that China's new development pattern seeks to foster.   

Last week, the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) completed its fifth plenary session in Beijing.

Unlike all other major countries, China’s economy is rebounding and fueling global prospects.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 03, 2020

Determining the Crude Oil Price Next Big Move / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Crude oil started this week with a bearish price gap and a breakdown below the September and October lows. This is an extremely valuable indication. The black gold seems to have finally decided what the next big move is going to be, and by breaking lower, it effectively “agreed” with our expectations.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 03, 2020

As China goes green, Copper market expected to tighten further / Commodities / Copper

By: Richard_Mills

The most pessimistic forecasts of copper demand, and pricing, during the worst pandemic in 102 years, have failed to materialize.

From a four-year low in March, when the coronavirus slammed into Europe and North America, the red metal used widely in construction, communications, transportation and energy transmission, has mounted a serious comeback.

As of this writing spot copper is trading at $3.08 per pound, compared to around $2.10/lb in mid-March – a gain of 46%. The spot price has stayed above $3.00 since Oct. 8 – which is remarkable considering the reports of impending economic doom, amid a second wave of covid-19 infections in Europe and North America.

The following analysis by AOTH has copper showing no signs of slowing down; in fact, while the copper market was tight before the pandemic began, we expect it to tighten even further, due to a constellation of factors, starting with China.

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Local

Monday, November 02, 2020

US 2020 Election Forecast Matrix: Will Donald Trump Win? / Local / US Presidential Election 2020

By: N_Walayat

Can Trump still win in 2020 despite being 10 points behind Biden in the polls? Let's find out from someone who did accurately predict both that the UK would vote to LEAVE the EU and that Trump would win the US Presidential election in 2016 despite what the pollsters, pundits, bookies and markets were stating at the time, as illustrated by my articles and videos at the time. And similarly I also accurately forecast the outcome of the 2012 and 2008 US Presidential elections.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 02, 2020

Stocks and the Dollar Weigh Into US Presidential Election 2020 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

It’s evident that stocks have once again invalidated the breakout above their early-2020 high. They have also closed the week below the lowest weekly September close. Back in September, the S&P 500 index reversed on a weekly basis and rallied once again. This is similar to what happened in 2018 (August) when stocks first broke to new highs. Back then, the volatility was lower, and therefore it’s no wonder that the breakout held and this time (in September) it was temporarily invalidated.

Back in 2018, stocks moved to a new high (not significantly higher), and this time they didn’t manage to do so, but were quite close (the rally seems to have burned itself out in August).

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Commodities

Monday, November 02, 2020

Gold Investors Should Look at Past Elections / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Election Day has finally arrived. Who will win, and why gold will remain the biggest winner of them all?

So, today is the day! It's Election Day. For quite some time, national polls indicate that Biden has a significant advantage . He is also polling scarcely close ahead of Donald Trump in key battleground states, but, in some states, the lead has recently narrowed. So, in many places, the race is still too close to call, making them toss-up states. Hence, although according to political pundits, polls, and bets Biden will become the next POTUS, anything could happen .

And we mean - anything. Everyone knows that back in 2016, Hillary Clinton also led in the polls. However, Trump won the election, to everyone’s surprise. Of course, the polling methodology has been improved since. But now, Biden has a much wider advantage than Hillary did in 2016, and he is much more conservative and more moderate in his approach than Clinton (historically, more moderate presidential candidates generally do better in presidential elections).

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Companies

Monday, November 02, 2020

Why Pinterest Has “Monster Stock” Potential / Companies / IPOs

By: John_Mauldin

By Justin Spittler

Shares of Pinterest (PIN) soared 27% last week after the company reported third-quarter earnings that crushed analyst expectations.

And I see PINS heading higher in the coming months. In fact, Pinterest has “monster stock” potential. You see, Pinterest is a different kind of social media company. Unlike Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR), Pinterest isn’t a place where people spew negativity, engulf conspiracy theories, or argue about politics.

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Commodities

Monday, November 02, 2020

Silver Junior Miners Reach Flag Apex Just Before US Elections / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Heading into what will likely become one of the biggest events in American political history on November 3, the US stock markets are holding up quite well on Monday, November 2.  My team and I have published a number of articles recently suggesting we believe wild price swings and increased volatility is to be expected before and after the US elections.  We have even suggested a couple of stock trades that we believe should do fairly well 60+ days after the elections are complete.  Right now, we want to bring your attention to the Silver Junior Miners ETF (SILJ).

The current Pennant/Flag formation that is setting up in SILJ on the following Monthly chart has peaked our attention.  Diminishing volume and moderately strong support above the $12 price level suggest key resistance near $15.05 will likely be retested as metals and miners continue to attract safe-haven capital after the elections.  The Apex of the Pennant/Flag formation appears to be nearly complete – a breakout or breakdown move is pending.  We believe the uncertainty of the elections will prompt a possible breakout (upside) price trend in the near future.

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Personal_Finance

Monday, November 02, 2020

Singles’ Day – The world's biggest shopping event / Personal_Finance / Shopping

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

The Singles’ Day shopping event is to the Chinese what Black Friday is to Americans. It is a time when steep discounts are an excuse to go wild and splurge. Millions of Chinese shoppers wait many months for the awesome Singles’ Day deals. This event is a signal for buyers to snag their most coveted products. Despite the event’s popularity in China, too few people outside the country know about it. It’s time to remedy that.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, November 02, 2020

Man Who Correctly Predicted Trump 2016 Win Calls 2020 US Election Result / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Can Trump still win in 2020 despite being 10 points behind Biden in the polls? Let's find out from someone who did accurately predict both that the UK would vote to LEAVE the EU and that Trump would win the US Presidential election in 2016 despite what the pollsters, pundits, bookies and markets were stating at the time, as illustrated by my articles and videos at the time. And similarly I also accurately forecast the outcome of the 2012 and 2008 US Presidential elections.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 02, 2020

Stock Market Correction Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend:  For now, the best guesstimate is that we are still in the bull market which started in 2009. Where we go from here and how far will be gauged after the September-November correction.

SPX Intermediate trend:  Intermediate correction could continue as a large sideways pattern at least into mid-November, and perhaps until the end of the year.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done daily with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

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Politics

Monday, November 02, 2020

Vonnegut’s Dark Vision Arrived 60 Years Early / Politics / Social Issues

By: James_Quinn

“THE YEAR WAS 2081, and everybody was finally equal. They weren’t only equal before God and the law. They were equal every which way. Nobody was smarter than anybody else. Nobody was better looking than anybody else. Nobody was stronger or quicker than anybody else. All this equality was due to the 211th, 212th, and 213th Amendments to the Constitution, and to the unceasing vigilance of agents of the United States Handicapper General.” – Harrison Bergeron – Kurt Vonnegut

Kurt Vonnegut’s short story – Harrison Bergeron – was written in 1961, and in Vonnegut’s darkly satirical style, portrayed America in 2081 as an disgracefully dystopian nightmare. Little did Vonnegut know what he considered outrageous and 120 years in the future, would be far closer to our current dystopian reality just 60 years later. The story was brought to my attention by my wife a week ago when we were talking about the absurdity of masks, their uselessness in stopping viruses, how they are nothing more than a means to control the population, being used to spread fear, and as a dehumanizing technique.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, November 02, 2020

Stock Market Breakdown May Extend Deeper If Support Is Broken / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The breakdown in the markets last week may have caught some traders off guard and resulted in a few stressful days.  As much as we want to tell you the selling is over, my researchers and I believe the selling may continue for a bit longer as the election and uncertainty related to COVID-19, global economics and post election stimulus and US government issues continue to plague future growth expectations.

We’re presenting these custom index charts today to help you understand where key support levels are in the broader market and to help you understand what to expect if this selling continues.  Over the past few weeks, we’ve published a number of research articles that provide important background and context to this article, including our research on the SPY Dark Cloud Cover pattern, NASDAQ E-minis Futures support levels, and what we see in store for prices of Gold and Silver.

One of the tools we use, in conjunction with our proprietary indicators, price modeling, and trading systems is our Custom Index charts.  These charts help us to gauge and understand market price activity as well as to help quantify the scale and scope of recent trends.  For example, we use these charts (and others) to better understand where, when, and how the underlying facets of the markets are shifting.  Often times, this allows us to see how the mechanics of the markets are working before the outcome really starts to become evident.

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, November 01, 2020

Can Trump Win? US Presidential Election Matrix Forecast Final Update / ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Will the November 3rd election earthquake trigger a stock market Tsunami or just a few inconsequential waves lapping on the market shore?  Here we stand just a few days away from the US presidential election with the liberal MSM in a state of electoral fever as their preferred candidate is way ahead on the polls looking set to win, just as their favoured candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016 was way head of the polls so unlike 2016 there is an edge to the frenzy of their activity given the awareness that the polls tend to be wrong, skewed against conservative voters and opinions. However, 2020 is even more chaotic than 2016, as this year there is the backdrop of the chinese virus raging across the US and especially in many US swing states that is contributing towards new cases of infection soaring to new plandemic highs with deaths already having broken above 230,000! Near double all of the US lives lost in all of the wars since 194 that acts as a continuing noose around the US economy, though that has so far not been enough to full fill that which the perma stock market doom merchants have been proclaiming for a more than a decade, an end to the stocks bull market.

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Housing-Market

Sunday, November 01, 2020

US Housing Market Is In A Full-Fledged Boom / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Stephen_McBride

The US housing market is booming. Last month, the number of Americans buying new houses spiked to a 14-year high. Home prices are growing at their fastest pace since 1991. And US mortgage lenders just recorded their biggest quarter in two decades. Lenders handed out a staggering $1.1 trillion in home loans in the past three months!

I’ve been pounding the table on the US housing market since early 2019. And it’s still one of the best money-making opportunities in the entire stock market today. Not even coronavirus could derail this runaway train.

For example, mortgage applications jumped 50% this year to their highest levels since 2005. In other words, US housing is as strong as it was at the height of the housing bubble.

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