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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Commodities

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Gold Golden 'Moment of Truth' Is Upon Us: $1,400-Plus or Not? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

With the precious metals markets range-bound and driven by forces beyond his control, sector expert Michael Ballanger turns his contrarian eye to the past. With gold enjoying its best week of the year, with the Daily Sentiment Index charging northward, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pressing 72 for the GLD, with the RSI for GDX pushing 75, and finally, with the newsletter community all falling on top of themselves with self-laudatory backslaps, I think it is time to adopt the contrarian view and step back.

It was less than five weeks ago, with gold and the miners all coming off sharply oversold conditions (RSI in the mid-high 30s), that I wrote that "carpe diem" in reference to ownership of GLD calls and my two favorite leveraged miners, NUGT and JNUG. Sure enough, JNUG has moved from $6.50 to $9.50 and NUGT from $14.50 to $22.10, while the GLD July $120 calls rocketed from $2.20 to $7.60. (Note: I did not get "top tick" for any of them, but did bank yet another decent 40% return on the miners, and a double and a half on the GLD calls).

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Exceptional Times for Gold Warrant Special Attention / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Technical analyst Clive Maund charts gold and explains why he believes this is a good time to build positions.

With things shaping up so well for gold, we can certainly take any short-term correction in our stride, and more than that, we can seize upon it as an opportunity to build positions further across the sector, whether by means of ETFs, stocks or options, and of course, gold itself.

Several factors suggest that a modest short-term correction is likely before the major breakout occurs. Gold is overbought after its recent run-up and is rounding over beneath the major resistance approaching $1400, as we can see on its latest 6-month chart below. Thus, the appearance of a short-term bearish "shooting star" candlestick on its chart on Friday coupled with its latest COTs showing Commercial short and Large Spec long positions hitting rather extreme levels suggests that it is likely to react back over the next week or two to allow things to cool for a bit before the major breakout occurs. The current COT structure IS NOT regarded as bearish overall, because we would expect speculators to pile in at the start of a big move—positions can be expected to get much more extreme once the big breakout occurs, flying off the charts and staying high as the first major upleg of the new bull market unfolds.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Gold Awaits the FOMC as Economic Data Send Mixed Signals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Who wouldn’t know the Spaghetti Western The Good, the Bad and the Ugly? In today’s analysis, we have important pieces of economic data starring in the first two roles. Retail sales and industrial production rebounded in May, while the Empire State Index plummeted in June. How will these reports affect tomorrow’s FOMC decision and the gold market?

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Politics

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Will Inflation “Save” Social Security? / Politics / Government Spending

By: MoneyMetals

Uncle Sam is going broke. That’s not exactly news – at least not to anyone who has been paying attention to the sorry state of federal finances.

Yet to most Americans, the ballooning national debt ($22.3 trillion and counting) isn’t a problem that impacts their daily lives. They won’t directly perceive the cost of another trillion dollars in borrowing in the government’s next fiscal year.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

The Stock Market Has Gone Nowhere and Volume is Low. What’s Next / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

The stock market has been trading within a very small range since last week, and volume has been notably low. Today’s headlines:

  1. Stock market’s small range
  2. Stock market’s low volume
  3. High stock:bond ratio
  4. The S&P’s long term correlations
  5. “A key manufacturing gauge just saw its biggest one month collapse in 18 years”
  6. Banks underperforming
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Commodities

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Silver Long-Term Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

What stands out from the long-term chart is that Silver tends to be pretty much dead for most of the time, only really coming alive towards the later stages of precious metals bull market manias when everyone begins piling in just before the bubble pops! Which is a warning not to get carried away with fantasy targets for Silver but try and keep things real by focusing on what silver has done in the past, namely the Silver price cap is $50.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

These Two Charts Virtually Scream “Buy Silver” / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

The Amount of Dollars in Existence

Silver is currently trading around $14.84 an ounce. This is around 30% of its 1980 all-time high of $50. However, this is an incomplete representation of what silver is really trading at, relative to US dollars.

When you look at the silver price, relative to US currency (the amount of actual US dollars) in existence, then it is at its lowest value it has ever been (see chart below).

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Companies

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

IBM - Watson Deep Learning - AI Stocks Investing - Video / Companies / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Are you ready for the exponential machine intelligence mega-trend?

In this series of videos I present my Top 10 AI stocks to invest in to profit from the exponential machine intelligence mega-trend.

My Top 10 AI stocks are ranked in terms of risk vs reward and volatility. So I consider my Top 5 stocks as primary, then the next 3 as secondary and the last 2 as far more risky tertiary stocks. And remember that when investing in the stock market that your capital is at risk. There are NO SURE BETS!

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Investors are Confident, Bullish and Buying Stocks, but… / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The Technical Traders Ltd has identified a unique price to volatility relationship between the SP500 and VIX index.  The calculations required to compute the VIX index are composed of a number of factors. That final value of the VIX index is reported on an annualized basis. This means that VIX index as already internalized the past 12 months price volatility into the current VIX levels.

We believe this increased VIX volatility expectation could be muting future VIX spikes and trading systems focus on the VIX Index.  The fact that the VIX as likely to internalized that large October to December 2018 price rotation and will not move beyond this price range until well after April or May of 2020 creates a unique problem for VIX systems and analysts. In short, the VIX has normalized a 20% price volatility expectation, or more, and will not reduce this expectation until well after April or May of 2020.

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Gold and Silver Reversals – Impossible Not to Notice / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: P_Radomski_CFA

What a remarkable day Friday has been! Going into the U.S. session open, we have seen gold challenging its early-June highs. The barrage of geopolitical news has been deafening and gold had literally nowhere to go but up. But something “unexpected” yet totally predictable happened to those who have jumped on the gold bandwagon. Friday’s U.S. session has sent gold lower. On huge volume. And not only gold, that is. Those looking at the charts’ bigger picture, those familiar with our analyses, hadn’t been surprised. Now that the dust is settled and gold pushes lower, let’s examine the aftermath. And draw lessons for the days ahead.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, June 17, 2019

S&P 500 Stuck at 2,900, Still No Clear Direction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stocks continued to fluctuate on Friday, as investors awaited this week’s Wednesday’s Fed Rate Decision release. The S&P 500 index reached the new local high on Tuesday and then it came back below the 2,900 mark. So was it a downward reversal or just correction before another leg up?

The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.1-0.5% on Friday, as they extended their short-term consolidation. The S&P 500 index gained more than 180 points from its previous week’s Monday’s local low recently. It is currently 2.3% below its May the 1st record high of 2,954.13. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.5% on Friday.

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Politics

Monday, June 17, 2019

Is Boris set to be the next Conservation leader? / Politics / UK Politics

By: Submissions

...

 


Interest-Rates

Monday, June 17, 2019

Clock’s Ticking on Your Chance to Profit from the Yield Curve Inversion / Interest-Rates / Inverted Yield Curve

By: Robert_Ross

The markets are in the middle of a once-in-a-decade event.

And it says a lot about what you should do with your money right now.

I’m talking about a critical recession indicator called the yield curve inversion—or the Diamond Cross.

As you may recall, a Diamond Cross happens when the difference between the yield on the 10-year Treasury note and the 3-month Treasury bill is negative. This is a telltale sign that the economy is slowing.

The Diamond Cross popped up briefly in March, only to return on May 15. Last week, it was the steepest, or most severe it’s been since April 2007.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, June 17, 2019

Stock Market Rally Faltering? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Andre_Gratian

Current Position of the Market

SPX: Long-term trend – Finallong-term phase on the way?  How much longer, is the question.

Intermediate trend –  The intermediate-term correction continues  to unfold.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts.  It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends

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Politics

Monday, June 17, 2019

Johnson Vs Gove Tory Leadership Contest Grudge Match Betfair Betting / Politics / UK Politics

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The latest odds for who who is likely to be the next tory leader have continued to narrow in Boris Johnson's favour with the latest price of just 1.23 which is set against 1.84 a week ago, 2.98 a week before that, 4+ a month before and 5+ a few months ago. So the train for betting on Boris Johnson has left the station as the risk vs reward is just not there. I don't take bets where the return on a £100 risk is just £23, even if I am pretty sure the bet will come good because risk vs reward is one of the primary rules for successful trading as iterated in my January 2019 article on the real secrets for successful trading. The Real Secret for Successful Trading

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Commodities

Monday, June 17, 2019

Strap Yourselves In – Gold May Take Off Like A Rocketship / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

The last three years have been extremely difficult for metals enthusiast. If you speak with them, you would assume that gold has been going down for the last three years. Well, at least that is the impression you would get based upon their “sentiment.”

But, in fact, all gold has been doing for the last three years is move sideways. In other words, it has been consolidating. Yet, during that consolidation, sentiment among investors has soured to where it is akin to a bear market.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, June 17, 2019

Nasdaq Stock Index Prediction System Is Telling Us A Very Different Story / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

On this day, celebrating fathers and all they do for families and their children, we thought we would share some really interesting research regarding the next six months trading expectations in the NASDAQ and what it means for your trading account.  One element of our research involves data mining and searching for historical price correlation models.  These types of elements help us identify when the price is acting normally or abnormally.

We like to focus on the NQ (NASDAQ) because its tech-heavy and is where a lot of the Capital Shift (money from other countries is flowing into as a safe/best asset class at this time).

Below, We are going to Geek-Out a little and sharing raw data values from one of our data mining utilities highlighting each month’s historical activity in the NQ.

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Currencies

Monday, June 17, 2019

King Dollar Rides Higher Creating Pressures On Foreign Economies / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Chris_Vermeulen

One of the biggest movers of the day on Friday was the US dollar.  The US stock market appeared very weak prior to the opening bell and precious metals, especially gold, appeared to be rocketing higher.  Almost right from the open, the markets washed out the fear and changed direction. The US dollar did the same thing.

This renewed strength in the US dollar continues to baffle foreign investors and foreign governments as they continue to try to support their economies and currencies against a stronger and more agile US economy and currency. Even as the US dollar strength is frustrating many investors, it is also attempting to keep a lid on traditional safe havens such as precious metals.

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Personal_Finance

Monday, June 17, 2019

Land Rover Discovery Sport Tailgate Not Working Problems Fix (70) / Personal_Finance / Land Rover

By: HGR

In our latest video we diagnose what to do if your Land Rover Discovery Sports automatic Tail Gate stops working, stops opening and closing with the click of your key fob. The first check to do is to make sure your batteries got enough charge to power the tail gate motor as a possible quick fix solution to tail gate not working issues.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, June 17, 2019

Stock Market Outlook: is the S&P today just like 2007 or 2016? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019

By: Troy_Bombardia

Bears are saying “the S&P today looks just like 2007” while bulls are saying “the S&P today looks just like 2016”. In reality, the S&P today is most like 1967 (not quite what you would expect).

Various technical factors suggest that the medium term is bullish.

The short term is mixed, and such a politically-driven market environment certainly does not add to one’s confidence about making short term predictions. Focus on the data and facts. Don’t trade the news.

  1. Fundamentals (long term): no significant U.S. macro deterioration, but the long term risk:reward doesn’t favor bulls.
  2. Technicals (medium term): mostly bullish
  3. Technicals (short term): mixed
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