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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Economics

Tuesday, November 01, 2022

The Exponential Inflation Mega-trend / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

REAL INFLATON and not the BS statistics that the likes of the Fed and Bank of England vomit every month, fake inflation statistics watered down over decades to hide the stealth theft of wealth and purchasing power of wages and savings..

I have been calculating my my own inflation measure for the UK for a couple of decades now which computes to the UK inflation rate currently being at about 20% per annum! In fact it has been in a range of 15% to 20% for over a year!

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 01, 2022

Macro changing in favor of the Gold Stocks Sector / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2022

By: Gary_Tanashian

Macro changing in favor of the gold stock sector is and has been a process

The process began with the leveling off of inflation’s momentum and continued as the global economy began to show signs of weakness (e.g. US manufacturing deceleration and developing supply chain slack among several other problem areas as exposed during the current earnings season).

While the nominal sector (HUI or the ETFs, GDX and GDXJ) has been bouncing within its intact downtrend it would be best to track other macro considerations along with the chart TA, which could signal a new bull phase by either completing a daily chart bottom/base (which nearly happened on Wednesday, but at least temporarily failed as the index and ETFs did not take out the October 4th highs) or completing a final decline, preferably amid much fear and angst among whatever inflation bugs may still be infesting the sector.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 01, 2022

Gold and Silver Believed To Be Close to Major Uptrend / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: The_Gold_Report

On the 1-year chart for gold shown below, we can see precisely why it has been in a quite severe downtrend from its peak last March. It is because the dollar and interest rates, shown at the top and bottom of the chart, have been in strong uptrends during this period.

A very important point to note is that while gold has dropped about $400 from its March peak, in real terms, this decline is much more serious because of the robust inflation during this period.

So if the Fed does pivot soon, that is to say, it stops raising rates and starts lowering them, or other Central Banks start raising rates, thus reducing the dollar’s appeal.

It will mean a reversal to the downside in the dollar and to the upside in gold and commodities and risk-on assets generally, and as we saw on Friday 21st, even talk of a pivot is enough to generate a recovery.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 01, 2022

Why Gold’s Losing Streak May Soon Turn Around / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: MoneyMetals

The gold market enters trading for the month of November on a losing streak. Can bulls finally turn things around?

Their first test will be to defend the line of support established from the September and October lows. Although the gold market registered a seventh consecutive monthly decline in October – marking its worst string of monthly losses in 50 years – daily prices didn't actually break down to new lows for the year.

Despite another losing month, downside selling pressure appears to be fizzling out. Gold prices have been consolidating within a narrowing range over the past several weeks and have even popped above the downtrend line today (November 1).

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Stock-Markets

Monday, October 31, 2022

US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

What to know what tends to drive the stock market into the stratosphere? US Deficit Spending! (actually twin deficits including Trade).

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Companies

Monday, October 31, 2022

Connecticut Bridge Loans: A Guide to Applying for Bridge Loans / Companies / Debt & Loans

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Connecticut bridge loans is gaining more and more attention among homeowners especially those that need quick access to funds to purchase a new house. Many people are starting to investigate the bridging loan market, and to help those who are new to this market, we’ve come up with a simple guide to help them understand bridging finance.

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Commodities

Monday, October 31, 2022

Could a Red Wave Cool Off the Retail Bullion Market? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: MoneyMetals

Americans will vote in the midterm elections next Tuesday. The latest polling suggests that a “red wave” is building, and Republicans may win the majority both in the House and the Senate. The election results will have implications for all markets – and that includes precious metals.

Mass psychology is one factor. Confidence in U.S. institutions has been in decline for several decades. However, when we see a marginal restoration of confidence, it can impact physical market demand for bullion.

Accordingly, should Republicans win big next week, red-hot bullion demand could cool off for a period of time.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, October 31, 2022

Sentiment Speaks: Amazon Killed The Stock Market On Friday / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Avi_Gilburt

It really is entertaining watching people. Whether I am sitting outside in a public area and "people-watching" with my wife, whether I watch how people react to the market in the articles on Seeking Alpha (and that includes the writers and commenters), or whether I watch how people react even within the virtual walls of my own services, people are very interesting and their emotional responses are even more so.

We had a very interesting week this past week. And, it again outlined for me that people simply cannot overcome their emotions, especially when it comes to the stock market. So many of you are following the CPI, unemployment, GDP, etc. Yet, none of that has helped you on this rally. If anything, it has made you miss this 12% rally over the last two weeks. And, when the Amazon earnings came out, many of you were sure the market would surely drop.

Yet, as the market was developing a near term topping structure on Wednesday and Thursday, my primary analysis to the members of ElliottWaveTrader was suggesting the strong potential for a pullback before we continued higher to the 3900+ region, which was my next target for the SPX.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, October 30, 2022

Can the Stock Market Hold Lows Despite Spiking Yields and Dollar Panic Buying? / Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2022

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

To break the June Low or not to break the June low, that is the question?

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Commodities

Sunday, October 30, 2022

Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have been battered over this past half-year, bludgeoned relentlessly lower with gold.  Heavy gold-futures selling fueled by the US dollar shooting parabolic in a mania has slammed the yellow metal.  Gold’s normal seasonal trends have been overpowered by speculators’ leveraged gold-futures dumping.  But with their selling capital firepower exhausted, gold’s usual winter rally should roar back.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behaviors driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

Gold stocks display strong seasonality because their price action amplifies that of their dominant primary driver, gold.  Gold’s seasonality generally isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities see, as its mined supply remains relatively steady year-round.  Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying considerably depending on the time in the calendar year.

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Commodities

Sunday, October 30, 2022

Is $600 Gold Price Possible? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2022

By: Kelsey_Williams

GOLD PRICE DECLINE – $600 POSSIBLE?

Over the past couple of months, since the posting of my article Gold Charts – $1450 the price of gold has done nothing to indicate a change in direction or reversal of any consequence.

Below is the latest chart (source) of physical gold prices showing monthly average closing prices since the peak in July 2020…

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Personal_Finance

Sunday, October 30, 2022

Cheap Bargain Tesco Fireworks 2022 Shopping for Bonfire Night - Buying Midnight Mania Box 2 for £45 / Personal_Finance / Tesco

By: Eliza_Walayat

It's bonfire night soon so off we went to our local Tesco's super market to get some FIREWORKS! Tesco usually have some sort of offer on i.e. to get 2 boxes at a lower cost than single boxes. There wasn't much choice though we weren't expecting much from a small counter, anyway we bagged ourselves 2 boxes of Midnight Mania for a total of £45 with each box containing 17 fireworks which was an upgrade from what we bought last year i.e. 2 boxes of Sky Fire £35

So watch the video to see what's on offer at Tesco's 2022 and liklely for 2023 as well as thye don't tend to change much form year to year, and watch our videos for what the fountains, shot tubes, and rockets are like, we also boughta couple of packs of sparklers..

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 28, 2022

FED Balance Sheet QE4Ever / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Not to forget the inflation mega-trend courtesy of rampant central bank money printing to monetize government debt coupled with the fake inflation indices where up until recently the Fed had succeeded in hoodwinking the masses that US inflation was just 1%. Instead at that time I warned it was more like 6%! Now it's more like 14%. Anyway the money printing binge now totals $8.8 trillion, up from $4 trillion at the start of 2020 and down from a a peak of $9.62 trillion in the so called Taper. We saw how the taper of 2019 went which at the time I warned would eventually resolve in the Fed Balance sheet DOUBLING. of course I was not expecting it to happen the very NEXT YEAR in 2020!

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Companies

Friday, October 28, 2022

Small Cap Stocks - When cheap isn’t enough / Companies / Investing 2022

By: Stephen_McBride

This “behind the scenes” conversation is too good not to share…

I recently sat down with RiskHedge Chief Investment Officer Chris Wood.

He’s the smartest guy I know when it comes to investing in early-stage disruptive companies.

Today, Chris explains why serious investors should consider tiny stocks today... why “cheap” isn’t enough when it comes to investing in this space... and more.

***
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Companies

Friday, October 28, 2022

Quantum AI Tech Stocks Big Picture / Companies / Quantum AI Tech Stocks

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Just pause for a moment and take in the chart in the video, the message one should be receiving loud and clear is that I expect this bull market to run for many more years, whilst my best guess 2 years ago was that it would top in early 2027, as long as run away valuations moderated during 2022 then I don't see why this should still not remain the big picture, thus the bull market could extend to 18 years from it's March 2009 low!

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Personal_Finance

Friday, October 28, 2022

What Do You Imagine for Your Financial Future? / Personal_Finance / Financial Education

By: Mark_Adan

Do you want to pay off your student loan debt? Or do you want to purchase your first home? Or do you want to break your bad credit card habits?

Having financial goals can help you achieve these goals. Heather Winston, Principal®’s assistant director of financial advice and place, said, “It is easy to prioritize when you set financial goals. You will have an idea of why you should save your money.”

It is, however, not enough to set financial goals. It is more important to transform your financial goals into reality. This stock trading app, UK can help you to invest your money for the future. If you want to achieve your financial goals, then read on to learn the best tips for achieving any financial goal:

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Currencies

Friday, October 28, 2022

4 Commonly Made Mistakes to Avoid When Investing in Crypto / Currencies / cryptocurrency

By: Russell_Fenton

With social media sharing showcasing people making millions off of cryptocurrency - it is natural that others are experiencing FOMO and want to get in on the fun. There is potential for large gains with the cryptocurrency market, however nothing is guaranteed. After reaching a market cap of over $3 trillion in November 2021, the current market cap of the cryptocurrency industry is around $1 trillion in value.

But with such a huge market, the number of people trying to earn off of scams is infinite. There are more than plenty of rookie investors that fall into traps when investing in crypto.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 26, 2022

TIPS BONDS FAKE INFLATION PROTECTION! / Interest-Rates / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

How to protect one self form INFLATION! Well what the investment industry sold to their clients were Inflation Protected Bond funds! The sales pitch went that when Inflation soars and regular bonds fall don't worry you are protected so given that inflation has taken off like a rocket have these bond funds delivered on their sales pitch?

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, October 26, 2022

Europe's Energy Sector: "The Lehman Moment Just Arrived" / Stock-Markets / Financial Crisis 2022

By: EWI

This company's stock price "broke a support shelf that dates back 14 years"

Back in October 2021, two months before Germany's DAX hit an all-time high, our Global Market Perspective showed a big jump in references to "Lehman" in Bloomberg News.

Of course, the use of "Lehman" in a news article has become synonymous with the collapse of the then financial giant during the depths of the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

The October 2021 Global Market Perspective, an Elliott Wave International monthly publication which covers 50-plus worldwide financial markets, said:

The Lehman moment will come later, after investor optimism has receded and stock prices are well off their highs.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 26, 2022

When Will the Fed Throw in the Towel on Rate Hikes? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: MoneyMetals

The Federal Reserve finally stopped referring to inflation as “transitory” earlier this year and got serious about trying to control the painful rise in prices it has caused. Officials have jacked the Fed funds rate up by 3% since March.

Thus far they have been willing to inflict pain upon financial markets. The S&P 500 lost roughly 20% of its value since the end of March.

The aggressive tightening has also pushed the Federal Reserve note “dollar” higher relative to other major currencies.

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