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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Stock-Markets

Saturday, April 21, 2018

How Long Does it take for a 10%+ Stock Market Correction to Make New Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

The S&P has fallen 11.8% already during this “small correction”. Assuming that the bottom is in already (February 9, 2018 = the bottom), the S&P has rallied for 48 days already. Is this normal? How long does it usually take for a 10%+ “small correction” to reclaim its old highs?

Here are the bottom dates for 10%+ “small corrections”

  1. June 4, 2012
  2. August 16, 2007
  3. February 28, 2000
  4. October 18, 1999
  5. October 28, 1997
  6. April 14, 1997
  7. July 16, 1996
  8. January 30, 1990
  9. September 29, 1986
  10. February 13, 1968
  11. June 29, 1965
  12. October 11, 1955

Here’s how many days it took for the S&P 500 to make a new high.

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, April 21, 2018

Sheffield Ruling Labour Party Could Lose 10 Council Seats at May Local Elections / ElectionOracle / UK Local Elections

By: N_Walayat

A growing peaceful street revolution had been under way against Sheffield city councils ruling Labour regime in the countdown to the May 2018 Local elections in response to the rampant felling of thousands of street trees where there exists a contractual target to fell as many as half of Sheffield's Street trees during the lifetime of the PFI contract with Amey.

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Commodities

Saturday, April 21, 2018

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi Arabia $80 ARAMCO Stock IPO Target / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The crude oil price started 2018 with a BANG rising from an opening $60 to a January peak of $67, a gain of 12% in less than 1 month! Whilst February saw the oil price give up all of Januarys gains by falling from $67 to $58 before recovering towards the top of the emerging $67 - $58 trading range for March which set the scene for the current rally to a 3 year high of $69. Whilst new has emerged that the Saudi's are actively pursuing lifting the oil price to at least $80 in support of their mega $1 trillion+ ARAMCO IPO.

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Commodities

Friday, April 20, 2018

Gold Price Nearing Bull Market Breakout, Stocks to Follow / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold remains largely forgotten, off the radars of most investors.  But that’s likely to change soon as this leading alternative investment is nearing a major bull breakout.  Once gold climbs to decisive new bull-market highs, sentiment will turn and investors’ interest will surge.  Their resulting buying will rapidly drive gold higher, attracting in more capital inflows.  Gold is only a couple modest up days away from that key breakout.

Universally in all markets, traders’ psychology is completely dependent on price action and levels.  When prices are high and rising, speculators and investors alike eagerly buy in.  They love chasing winners, so buying begets buying.  This creates powerful self-reinforcing virtuous circles, with rising prices helping to entice in ever-more traders.  In recent years this dynamic catapulted the market-darling FANG stocks higher.

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Currencies

Friday, April 20, 2018

What’s Bitcoin Really Worth? / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Mike_McAra

What’s Bitcoin really worth? This question might really drive you mad if you think hard enough about it. $0? $10? Maybe $1,000,000 for one coin? The range of the numbers can make your head spin but it is the explanation behind the number that matters. For the most part, investors don’t have a good reason why Bitcoin is worth this or that, apart from claims that “it will take over the world” and so on. This hasn’t stopped people from trying, though. Is it even important for short-term traders? Can it boost profits on our hypothetical positions?

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Commodities

Friday, April 20, 2018

Gold, Silver and Jet Surf Boards - Audio Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Here is an interview talking about silver, silver stocks, and some new electric jet flying surfboard.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 20, 2018

Stock Market May "Let Go" / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

SPX futures slid down to the daytime low of 2682.75 in late night trading, then ramped up to trendline resistance at 2698.25 before coming back to the flat line as I write. It appears to be range-bound for the moment, until Index Options (institutional-style) expire at 9:20-9:30 am. Retail options expire at the end of the day.

SPX had Waves 1 and 2 yesterday. Wave 3 may be significantly larger than the 35.59 point decline we saw yesterday. There is a good probability that the retail options investors may be “thrown under the bus.”

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Stock-Markets

Friday, April 20, 2018

Overwhelming Evidence Against Near Stock Market Grand Supercycle Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Science_Investing

Grand Supercycle in US Equities
The US stock market shows price data all the way back to 1790. It can be fitted into long term cycles, which result into Elliott waves. The popular opinion is that we are approaching the top of a Grand Supercycle trend. It implies that a long and deep correction is ahead of us. Our conclusion is very different to that and we base it on Elliott’s rules and guidelines.

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Commodities

Friday, April 20, 2018

Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast - Saudi's Want $100 for ARAMCO Stock IPO / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The crude oil price started 2018 with a BANG rising from an opening $60 to a January peak of $67, a gain of 12% in less than 1 month! Whilst February saw the oil price give up all of Januarys gains by falling from $67 to $58 before recovering towards the top of the emerging $67 - $58 trading range.

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Commodities

Friday, April 20, 2018

The Incredible Silver Trade – What You Need to Know / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Everyone is talking about the incredible price move in silver on April 18, 2018.  For years we have been talking about the setup in the metals markets and alerting our members to opportunities as they arise. Recently, we alerted our members to an incredible opportunity in Silver and we caught this move before it skyrocketed higher.  Now, everyone wants to know what’s next.  Here is our take on the Silver trade and what you need to know.

All the technical and price valuation indicators regarding the relationship of Gold to Silver have been set for many months telling traders that Silver is the clear leader in any price advance in metals.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 19, 2018

Is War "Hell" for the Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: EWI


Take a look at stock market behavior in times of war… and peace

Are wars bullish or bearish for stocks?

With the recent news of airstrikes on Syria and a threat of a global war, this question is extremely relevant. But does war really cause stock markets to rise and fall?

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Commodities

Thursday, April 19, 2018

Palladium Bullion Surges 17% In 9 Days On Russian Supply Concerns / Commodities / Palladium

By: GoldCore

Palladium bullion has surged a massive 17% in just nine trading days. From $895/oz on Friday April 6th to over $1,052/oz today (April 19th). The price surge is due to palladium being due a bounce after falling in the first quarter and now due to Russian supply concerns.

In a volatile month, precious metals and commodities have been the clear winners so far, with palladium having the greatest gains of all – up 10.7% in April (see table below).

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 19, 2018

Breadth Study Suggests that Stock Market Bottom is Already In / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Troy_Bombardia

Last week we demonstrated a momentum+breadth study which supported the medium term bullish case for the stock market.

Now let’s look at the short term case for the stock market. Is the stock market’s EXACT bottom already in?

The NYSE cumulative Advance-Decline Line (one of the best breadth indicators) just made a new all-time high yesterday while the S&P 500 has yet to make a new high.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, April 19, 2018

Allegory Regarding Investment Decisions Made On Basis Of Government’s Income Statement, Balance Sheet / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018

By: Raymond_Matison

Webster’s dictionary defines allegory as a story in which people, things or happenings have a symbolic or hidden meaning that can be used effectively in teaching or explaining difficult ideas.  Accordingly, an allegoric story is used here to explain the important difference between a government income statement and balance sheet, and its application for investment decisions in financial markets.

Simplistically, the government’s income statement records all its activity over a specific period of time during which it brings in revenues, disburses some benefits and pays some expenses.   Individual and corporate income taxes provide the lion’s share of those revenues.  When the cost of government and its expenditures are deducted from its revenues the balance is either a surplus or savings, or as has been our experience over the last few decades – there is a budget deficit.  Such deficits have to be financed, and it results in persistent issue and growth of our national debt.  In our allegory the budget deficits will be represented by a not large hole in the hull of a ship, whereas the governmental debt is represented by the accumulated flow of water in the hull of a ship.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 19, 2018

Gold – A Unique Repeat of the 2007 and How to Profit / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Since Spring is in the air here are some colorful charts and show you where we feel the price of gold and stocks are within the current market cycles.

Below are monthly charts of the SP500 index and the price of gold. The first chart shows a pattern that gold formed just before stocks hit all-time new highs and the bear market started.

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Companies

Thursday, April 19, 2018

5 "Core" Elliott Wave Patterns, Avago (NASDAQ: AVGO) / Companies / Company Chart Analysis

By: EWI

The stock of Avago Technologies rebounded strongly off the recent lows. What's next? The challenge is on you to provide the answer. Give it a shot!

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Politics

Thursday, April 19, 2018

The Civil War Is At Home in America / Politics / US Politics

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Dr. D: Wonderfully said. Since no one will report, here’s what happened to that airstrike. The one where we declare a victory and go home (or try to).

They targeted 10 sites, yet after the Pentagon said it was a perfect mission, they only reported on 4. Who were the other 6?

Duwali airbase – 4 missiles fired, 4 shot down
Dumayr airbase – 12 missiles fired, 12 shot down
Baley airbase – 18 missiles fired, 18 shot down
Shayrat airbase – 12 missiles fired, 12 shot down
Marj Ruhayyil airbase – 18 missiles fired, 18 shot down
Damascus international airport – 4 missiles fired, 4 shot down

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Currencies

Thursday, April 19, 2018

Bitcoin Hater George Soros Finally Admits He Wants In On Crypto / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Jeff_Berwick

America’s favorite power broker, the evil bloated Ringwraith himself, George Soros, is now poised to invest in cryptocurrency, despite trashing Bitcoin just a few months ago.

In addition to calling Bitcoin a “bubble”, Soros ironically stated that digital currencies are a tool for dictators:

As long as you have dictatorships on the rise, you will have a different ending, because the rulers in those countries will turn to Bitcoin to build a nest egg abroad.

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Local

Thursday, April 19, 2018

Abbeydale Park Rise Cherry Tree's in Blossom - Sheffield Street Tree Protests / Local / Sheffield

By: N_Walayat

The Cherry Trees of Abbeydale Park Rise are in Blossom to illustrate what thousands of Sheffield's residents have been busy trying to prevent the felling of for several years. Abbeydale Park Rise has been one of the key focal points for Sheffield's anti street tree felling protests, which has been witness to numerous arrests of protestors this year before tree fellings were suspended by the Labour controlled city council in advance of the May 3rd Local Elections.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 18, 2018

The Stock Market “Turn of the Month Effect” Exists in 11 of 11 Countries / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018

By: Dimitri_Speck

Dear Investor,

I first discussed the “turn-of-the-month effect” in Seasonal Insights issue 6 of March 21, 2018. The term describes the fact that price gains in the stock market tend to cluster around the turn of the month.

By contrast, the rest of the time around the middle of the month is typically less profitable for investors.

With respect to the US stock market, I also showed how the “turn-of-the-month effect”” evolved over time, when it was particularly pronounced and when it tended to wane.

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