Wednesday, March 28, 2018
China/Asia Economic Implosion on the Horizon? / Economics / China Economy
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Recent news of the US enacting $60 billion in economic tariffs on China as well as reactionary tactics from China have everyone spooked. The US stock markets and global markets tanked last week as this news hit the wires. At www.TheTechnicalTraders.com, we have been warning of a massive upside move in precious metals as well as global market concerns for the past 12+ months. Our recent research shows just how fragile the global markets are to external factors as well as strengths in the US and other established economies.
Wednesday, March 28, 2018
What Happens Next When the Stock Market is Very Volatile / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Troy_Bombardia
The stock market’s volatility is very high right now. And by “volatility”, we’re not referring to VIX. We’re referring to the S&P 500’s daily % movements.
The stock market’s high volatility right now is not rare. There were a lot of historical periods with high volatility. What’s rare is that the stock market’s high volatility right now was preceded by a period of extremely low volatility (i.e. 2017 – January 2018).
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Wednesday, March 28, 2018
New Research Foretells QE Domination / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: F_F_Wiley
The title refers to a consensus-shattering paper that was unveiled at the University of Chicago last month before a Who’s Who of economists and central bankers.
Paul Krugman gave the keynote, but the meeting’s focus was on the paper’s authors—two Wall Street big shots, Morgan Stanley’s David Greenlaw and Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Ethan Harris, and two academics, James Hamilton and Kenneth West. To keep it simple, I’ll call them GHHW.
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Tuesday, March 27, 2018
Are Stocks Ready for a Profound Failure? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX futures made an overnight high of 2679.75 before pulling back. The 38.2% Fib retracement level is 2702.27, which it has not achieved. As the formation stands right now, it would make an a-b-c zigzag. However, a further pullback may lead to yet another push to the trendline and 38.2% retracement. A failure to retrace that level would be profound.
The story line for this rally is Trump’s “Happy Tweet.” ZeroHedge comments, “Just as Trump sent stocks into a tailspin last week with his bellicose trade overtures against China, so the near record (point) rebound in the Dow on Monday is being attributed to a much more diplomatic tone out of the Trump administration, when first Mnuchin, then Peter Navarro played down the threat of a trade war and instead said that the administration is “actively” involved in talks with China to resolve the recent trade tensions between the two nations. Various unconfirmed media reports then also suggested that trade war with China may never materialize (of course, as Mark Cudmore explained this morning, it very well still may). It culminated with a "happy" tweet from Trump himself on Monday night, in which the stock-picking president, hours after confirming his delight with the spike in the market, tweeted "trade talks going on with numerous countries that, for many years, have not treated the United States fairly. In the end, all will be happy!"
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Tuesday, March 27, 2018
Silver Futures Report and JP Morgan Record Silver Bullion Holding Is Extremely Bullish / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
– Silver Futures Report, JP Morgan Record Silver Bullion Holding Is Extremely Bullish
– JP Morgan Continues Adding To Massive Silver Bullion Holdings (see chart)
– Silver Speculators Go Short – Which Is Extremely Bullish
– Stunning Silver COT Report: One For the Ages (see chart)
Tuesday, March 27, 2018
When Two Are Fighting, Gold Wins / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Do you hear the military march? The world’s largest economies are flexing their muscles and preparing for war. Will gold win the trade conflict between the United States and China?
So It Begins
Trade war. This topic dominated the recent days. Last week, President Trump announced plans for tariffs on about $60 billion of Chinese imports. In response, Liu He, China’s vice-prime minister, told Steven Mnuchin, U.S. Treasury Secretary, that China is ready to defend its interests. Indeed, on Friday the country announced plans to impose tariffs on about $3 billion of U.S. imports. So are we at war?
Tuesday, March 27, 2018
Subdued Stocks & Shares ISA Performance Still Outshining Cash ISAs / Personal_Finance / ISA's
By: MoneyFacts
- The average stocks & shares ISA fund has grown by 4.8% during the 2017/18 tax year so far – a considerably weaker performance than the growth of 20.4% posted in the 2016/17 tax year.
- This still compares favourably with the average cash ISA rate of 0.97% over the same period.
- The average stocks & shares ISA has now delivered positive growth in 12 of the 19 tax years since the introduction of ISAs in 1999.
Tuesday, March 27, 2018
The World’s Biggest Stock Investors Have Lost $436 Billion In 2018 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: OilPrice_Com
Charles Benavidez: Wall Street is shocked, but it shouldn’t be: Tariffs targeting China should have been a given, and now the market’s tanking on trade war fears as if it just crept up on everyone, but Trump’s been very clear on this.
Wall Street is known for being short-sighted, though, and allowing itself to get caught up in the euphoria of the day. And now the world’s biggest investors are losing hundreds of billions.
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Tuesday, March 27, 2018
The Federal Reserve – Purpose And Motivation / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Kelsey_Williams
With each succeeding day, obsession with the Federal Reserve continues. And the obsession is a good indicator of just how misinformed most of us are.
This is true with respect to various policies, statements, and actions; and includes comments made by board members, either in speeches or interviews. But it is also true regarding purpose and motivation.
To a large extent, it is a matter of perception. Some, maybe most, people see the Fed as the lead driver. There is an assumed aura of authority and control. On all matters economic, we look to them for direction. But where are they taking us?
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Tuesday, March 27, 2018
GOLD - GATA IS AT IT AGAIN / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Avi_Gilburt
A new phrase has been added to our lexicon of late, and that is what has become known as "fake news." This new phraseology can be aptly applied to that which is presented by our old friends at the GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action) committee.
GATA has been trying to convince all those who are willing to listen that it is not its fault that the metals market dropped from 2011 to 2015 (where silver lost 75% of its value). Rather than admitting that it was not able to foresee a standard market correction -- which I warned about before it happened -- it has been focusing on that big bad scapegoat named "manipulation." And, it takes bits and pieces of what people say in order to "prove" its point.
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Tuesday, March 27, 2018
Physical Gold Production May Be Peaking, But There Is No Shortage In Paper Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: MoneyMetals
Gold production numbers for 2017 are still being compiled but estimates call for the first annual decline in mine output since 2008.The gold price fell dramatically in the months following the 2011 peak in prices. It has languished at, or near, the cost of production for years. Low gold prices are having a predictable effect on mine output.
Tuesday, March 27, 2018
Critical US Economic Indication to Watch Out For / Economics / US Economy
By: Rodney_Johnson
Millennials get a bad rap. Sure, they’re the generation that grew up with participation trophies, winning prizes for completing the arduous task of showing up. And with help from their Boomer professors, they have successfully shamed institutions of higher learning, where for centuries debate was considered a search for the truth, into echo chambers of conformity.I’ve also just learned that this generation has promoted E-sports (that would be watching other people play video games) into such a big deal that the category will get its own E-sports arena in Arlington, Texas.
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Tuesday, March 27, 2018
Toys R Us Not the Only Major Retail Casualty / Companies / Retail Sector
By: Harry_Dent
Toys R Us just joined the unenviable list of top retail failures of the past decade: Circuit City, Linens-N-Things, A&P (the Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Company), Sports Authority, and Radio Shack (whose downfall we called in 2016).While there are many reasons for the loss of these once household names, and Toys R Us is citing massive debt burdens as one element in its undoing, there is a much bigger – and more predictable – underlying factor.
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Tuesday, March 27, 2018
Staying Away from the Bitcoin Crypto Bubble / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Harry_Dent
The crypto ship is sailing in rough seas at the moment. My advice? Stay away for now. Preserve your capital for after the major crash, and then pick winners from the bones.The bitcoin and cryptocurrency trends seem to be following the path the internet took back in the very late 1990s. That bubble came at the end of the tech bubble, and expanded by more than 8 times between late 1998 and early 2000. Then it crashed 93%.
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Tuesday, March 27, 2018
Kit Kat Joe the Mug Easy to Win - Unboxing / Personal_Finance / Freebies and Comps
By: Anika_Walayat
Kit Kat are literally giving away 50,000 'Joe the Mugs' in an easy to win promotion until the 31st of August 2018. And find out exactly what gets delivered through your letter box in this video.
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Monday, March 26, 2018
The ABCs Of Popping A Third Asset Price Bubble / Stock-Markets / Liquidity Bubble
By: Dan_Amerman
Movies can have quite predictable plot lines that we know in advance - but we love them anyway. It could be a romance, where the girl is going to end up with the right guy through a series of improbable events, even though that looks impossible to begin with. It could be an action movie, where our tough and underestimated hero overcomes seemingly impossible odds to just barely win in the end, after all.
There are movies that play over and over again in the financial markets and the economy as well, and while the particulars change, the plots can repeat themselves.
In this analysis, we are going to take a look at a market "movie" that has played out twice in the modern era, and follow the A-B-C-D plot line that was followed in each case. We will then take a look at more recent events, see if A-B-C have been occurring, and ask if D could be coming after C for the third time in a row?
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Monday, March 26, 2018
Sheffield Tree Fellings Protest Virtual Realty VR 360 Experience / Local / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
Sheffield's street fellings may have been suspended due to the forthcoming local elections. However here is about as realistic an experience as one can get without actually being at a Sheffield Street tree felling protest site, in virtual reality 360.
Whilst a VR headset will give you the whole immersed experience of being there, a VR capable browser such as fire fox or chrome will be able to give you a taste of what it's like to be there.
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Monday, March 26, 2018
Labour Sheffield City Council Halts Tree Fellings Ahead of May Local Elections / Local / Sheffield
By: N_Walayat
The Labour controlled Sheffield City Council announced a halt to the controversial street trees felling programme today that had seen escalating protestor opposition on the streets of Sheffield against the felling of healthy trees that followed the revelation that half of Sheffield's street trees would be felled during the life time of the 25 year PFI contract with Amey..
Since the resumption of felling a month ago the streets of Sheffield have been witness to very heavy police and security presence at felling sites, with upwards of 30 police officers and 20 Hiviz security all towards enabling felling if a single tree. Which has galvanised the people of Sheffield to come out and protest in their hundreds each day against the felling of healthy street trees that tends to result in multiple arrests at each felling site on a daily basis.
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Monday, March 26, 2018
Hi-Ho Silver! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Peter_Degraaf
If the latest COT report for silver gets any more bullish than the one released on March 23rd, commercial traders will have to go ‘net long!’ As it is, they reduced their ‘net short’ position to the lowest number in many years, down to just 4,000 contracts – barely 2% of the total open interest! This is bullish action! As recently as January 16th the number of ‘net short’ positions was 50,000, and the percentage of open interest was 26%. (Charts are courtesy Goldchartsrus.com unless specified).
Monday, March 26, 2018
Trade War and Silver CoT – Details and Implications / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Gold soared by the end of the week. Miners didn’t – the HUI didn’t even move above the previous March highs. Silver’s performance was rather mixed, but closer to the one of miners than the one of gold. Why did gold rally? Why didn’t miners rally? How can the silver CoT numbers help in this case?
Let’s start with the first question. Why did gold rally in the final part of the previous week? The first reason was likely the increased tension regarding interest rates and Powell’s first Fed meeting. This was likely to cause only temporary volatility and it seems that it did. Based on how mining stocks performed relative to the gold market, it certainly seems that the precious metals market wants to go down. But, there’s another fundamental development that triggered another rally in gold (to a smaller extent) – the trade war. This term is too far-fetched – it’s just a trade battle for now. Let’s focus on the practical implications for the precious metals market. In short, just like a few threats between the U.S. and North Korea, the trade tensions between the U.S. and China are a geopolitical event.
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