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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Tuesday, June 09, 2020

Silver vs Gold Trend / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The silver price has managed to recover from the Corona crash of 2020 with the price back within it's trading range of $17 to $20. Though contrary to the Silver bugs perma expectations for the Silver price to track the Gold price higher, that's not what usually tends to happen as the below graph illustrates,, which if you have followed my previous Silver analysis articles than you would know this is the expected behaviour of Silver, Gold's volatile and unresponsive to events cheaper cousin.

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Commodities

Monday, June 08, 2020

Gold Stocks Healthy Upleg / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks just rolled over into a correction, raising concerns about the staying power of their massive post-panic upleg.  These higher prevailing gold prices have driven very-strong fundamentals at the gold miners.  But they are entering the seasonally-weak summer doldrums.  And current sentiment and technicals play major roles in governing when uplegs remain healthy or ready to give up their ghosts.

The GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF remains the leading and dominant benchmark for this small contrarian sector.  Its $14.3b in net assets this week were a colossal 33.2x bigger than those of its next-largest 1x-long major-gold-miners-ETF competitor!  GDX’s only real rival is its little-brother GDXJ mid-tier gold-miners ETF, which is only about one-third of GDX’s size.  The GDX gold stocks have sure had a wild ride.

Normally the major gold miners of GDX leverage material gold moves by 2x to 3x.  Gold stocks’ excess gains during gold uplegs are necessary to compensate traders for miners’ big additional risks on top of gold-price fluctuations.  These include operational risks at individual mines, geopolitical risks in countries hosting gold mines, financial risks from hedging and currency fluctuations, along with many other risks.

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Commodities

Monday, June 08, 2020

Will Great Unlock Push Gold Prices Down? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

As Great Lockdown was positive for the gold prices, the Great Unlock will be bad, right? We invite you to read our today’s article about the Great Unlock and find out whether it really must be negative for the gold prices.

It’s all government’s fault, right? After all, the Great Lockdown was introduced by the federal and state governments introduced, wasn’t? Well, not quite.

Before I will explain why, let me clear one thing up: I’m a liberty lover and I’m skeptical about the government regulations. And the economic shutdown was obviously untenable – the only reason to shut down the economy was to buy some time to prepare the healthcare system for better handling of the epidemic. So, it’s good that the Great Lockdown is ending.

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Commodities

Monday, June 08, 2020

Silver/Gold Ratio Hits Target; About Those Inflation Indicators / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

The NFTRH plan is and has been that the gold mining sector, due to the fundamentals implied by the handy graphic below, could eventually lead a world full of inflatables higher. The miners, leveraging gold’s out performance to most everything else during liquidity crises and even deflation, move first and draw in the inflationist bugs later. If the macro goes inflationary the miners will likely continue to perform well (ref. the 2003-2008 period) but would no longer be the go-to sector.

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Commodities

Sunday, June 07, 2020

Gold, Stocks & The Pandemic: A Powerful Contracyclical Play In Action / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Dan_Amerman

While the use of gold to protect against inflation is well known, it has other investment attributes that are potentially even more valuable, and this is particularly true in times of crisis.

In this analysis, we will examine the relative performance of gold and stocks (as represented by the S&P 500) between early February and late May, as the coronavirus pandemic and the resulting economic shutdowns transformed global economies and markets.

The short term relationship that we will find is an almost perfect match with what fifty years of financial history shows us is perhaps gold's most valuable investment attribute over the long term, which is its contracyclical relationship with stock prices.

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Commodities

Sunday, June 07, 2020

A Huge Silver Rally Is The Next Step In The US Dollar Long-Term Cycle / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

The US Dollar Index is getting close to the breakdown that will signal a massive Silver rally. A type of Silver rally that was last seen in the 70s, when Silver went from around $5 to $50.

The market has virtually completed a full cycle to set up the next Silver rally.  See this long-term US Dollar Index chart:

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Commodities

Sunday, June 07, 2020

Gold & Silver “Washout” – Get Ready For A Big Move Higher / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Gold and Silver moved lower early on June 2nd and 3rd.  Our research team believes this is a “Washout Low” price rotation following a technical pattern that will prompt a much higher rally in precious metals.  This type of washout price rotation is fairly common before very big moves after Pennant/Flag formations or just after reaching major price trigger levels.

With Gold, a sideways Pennant/Flag formation has been setting up near our GREEN Fibonacci Price Amplitude Resistance Arc.  We believe the downward price rotation recently is a perfect setup for skilled technical traders to take advantage of lower entry price levels.  The GREEN Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc will very likely be breached over the next 5 to 10 trading days and the price of Gold should rally well above $1850 in the process.  We believe this Washout Rotation is a process of running through the Long Stops just below recent price activity that will end with a defined upside price rally over the next 2 to 5+ weeks.

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Commodities

Sunday, June 07, 2020

When People Riot, Should We Call Military or Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Could 2020 end, please? The pandemic is not over and the US suffers now from mass riots across the country. They could aggravate the coronavirus crisis and increase the demand for gold.

On May 26, a black man, George Floyd, was killed by the police in Minneapolis, Minnesota. During his arrest – he allegedly used earlier a $20 counterfeit bill in a nearby store – the police officer put a knee on Floyd’s neck on the ground, although the arrestee was not aggressive and repeated several times that he could not breathe.
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Commodities

Sunday, June 07, 2020

Precious Metals Complex Big Picture / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Rambus_Chartology

From the March 23rd low in the PM complex we’ve enjoyed the first easy part of this rally that should have many years to run yet. Every bull market will consist of an impulse move followed by a consolidation period, rinse and repeat until the bull market ends with some type of reversal pattern. Normally in a secular bull market the turning points will generally be very large to buildup the energy to advance to new highs.

The current 2nd leg up in the secular PM complex bull market actually began in January of 2016 after the first leg up ran from 2000 to 2011. There was a cyclical bear market within the secular bull market that ran from the 2011 high to the January 2016 low. It’s important to understand which part of a bull market one is in as to not get confused on what may lay ahead.

Tonight I would like to show you some long term quarterly line charts that I use when looking for big chart patterns that usually show up at important long term reversal points that can take years to complete. I usually only post these charts just a couple of times a year as change comes very slowly but when change does come it’s important to pay close attention because the change usually represents a major trend change.

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Commodities

Friday, June 05, 2020

Potential Highs and Lows For Gold In 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

DOWNSIDE POSSIBILITIES FOR GOLD PRICE

There is a correlation of gold’s increasing price relative to the declining value of the US dollar. The chart (source for all charts) below shows this inverse relationship clearly…

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Commodities

Friday, June 05, 2020

Tying Gold Miners and USD Signals for What Comes Next / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The precious metals sector was likely to decline, and it did exactly that. And based on what we just saw, it’s likely to decline even more.

Once again, the situation yesterday and so far today developed quite in tune with what we wrote yesterday, so today’s analysis will take form of a broad update. Let’s take a look at the GLD ETF. In yesterday’s and Monday’s analyses, we described it in the following way:

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Commodities

Friday, June 05, 2020

Gold’s role in the Greater Depression of 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Raymond_Matison

The most important measure for an economy, its recovery or advancement is employment - that is, the availability of good-paying jobs.  When citizens have jobs, they earn an income with which they can pay for their needs, and pay taxes to the government for its needs.  So jobs and income, are the key determinants of a healthy, modern consumer-driven economy.  Over the last several decades business owners, globalists and bankers utilized foreign wage, borrowing cost, environmental and regulatory advantages to close production facilities in the U.S., moving thousands of factories and jobs to Asia.  This job migration decision can be reversed at any time; however, it will take as many decades to bring jobs back to the U.S. as it did to move them overseas.  Therefore, it will take many years to reverse this unfortunate U.S. worker-discriminating decision.  As an unfortunate result, we are now to experience the consequences of a depression (a long lasting recession) instead of a recession.

Some economic observers and pundits have already publically stated that we are now in an economic recession. Official acknowledgment would require the passage, retrospectively, of two quarters of negative GDP growth to confirm this.  However, considering all that has transpired since the beginning of this year in our country, admitting that we are now living in a recession is not a particularly bold projection.

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 03, 2020

Covid, Debt and Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Precious metals are loving the uncertainty the coronavirus has created. 

Despite limited successes some countries have had with reopening, the virus is nowhere near contained. As of this writing, close to 6 million worldwide are infected and 365,328 have died. The important columns in the table below from the heavily visited Worldometer's coronavirus page, are the yellow and red. 

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Commodities

Wednesday, June 03, 2020

Gold-Silver Ratio And Correlation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Kelsey_Williams

From Investopedia:

Correlation is a statistic that measures the degree to which two variables move in relation to each other. Correlation measures association, but doesn’t show if x causes y or vice versa, or if the association is caused by a third–perhaps unseen–factor.”

In order for correlation to exist, there must be fundamentals that directly connect the two items being compared.

For example, there is a possible correlation between localized, bad weather and crop failures. But how do you predict the timing and extent, or the effects, to a degree that can be profitable?

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Commodities

Tuesday, June 02, 2020

Silver and Gold: Balancing More Than 100 Years Of Debt Abuse / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, the stock market has outperformed Gold and Silver significantly. Here is a great chart (from longtermtrends.net) that proves this:

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Commodities

Saturday, May 30, 2020

Will Fed‘s Cap On Interest Rates Trigger Gold’s Rally? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Last week, the FOMC released the minutes from its last meeting. What implications do they carry for the gold market?

FOMC Finally Acknowledges the Situation As Serious

Last week, the FOMC has published minutes of its meeting from April 28-29. They show that the Fed reassessed the coronavirus economic implications since the previous meeting at which the central banks did not yet grasp the full gravity of the situation. This time, they acknowledged that “the second quarter would likely see overall economic activity decline at an unprecedented rate.” Indeed, as we reported many times, the GDP will collapse, while the unemployment rate will soar to the levels not seen since the Great Depression.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 28, 2020

Trump vs. Biden: What’s at Stake for Precious Metals Investors? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

The China virus, the economic lockdowns, and the multi-trillion-dollar rescue efforts of central bankers have dominated markets over the past three months.

However, as lockdowns gradually lift and the 2020 election draws nearer, investors will begin to focus more on political developments.

The once-strong economy that President Donald Trump had hoped would propel him to re-election has collapsed. The President has also taken a tremendous amount of heat from the media over his handling of the COVID-19 crisis, and that has hurt his poll numbers.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 28, 2020

Implications for Gold – 2007-9 Great Recession vs. 2020 Coronavirus Crisis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

When the economic crisis hits, the first instinct is to analyze the previous catastrophes to learn what to expect from and how to handle the current calamity. So, not surprisingly, many analysts have already pointed to the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) as the most relevant example. However, is really the current coronavirus recession similar to the Great Recession? Let’s compare these two big crises and draw investment conclusions for the gold market!

First of all, in terms of scale and pace of the decline, the current crisis is much broader and deeper. It hits practically the whole globe, not only advanced countries, and it affects all offline sectors, not just the financial sector and construction. And in just four weeks, 22 million of Americans made claims for the unemployment benefit. For comparison, during the Great Recession, 37 million unemployment claims were filed. But the Great Recession started in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, so it lasted one year and half. When it comes to output, the cumulative decline in the real GDP amounted to 4 percent during the Great Recession. Meanwhile, just two months of mitigation measures are estimated by some economists to shrink the real US GDP by 10 percent. Even the overly optimistic IMF expects that the US economy will shrink 5.9 percent this year.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Crude Oil Cuts Get Another Saudi Boost as Oil Demand Begins to Show Signs of Life / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: The_Energy_Report

Though gasoline demand remains historically weak, commuters are beginning to head back to their offices, opting for the isolation of their personal vehicles and abandoning public transit, reports McAlinden Research.

Saudi Arabia enhanced their commitment to OPEC+ supply cuts as the Kingdom said they'd shut production of additional 1 million barrels of crude oil per day next month. Most of the OPEC+ countries have already come close to compliance with the deal that took effect this month and cuts from non-member states like Norway, Brazil, Canada, and the US are compounding the already steep curbs on production. Though gasoline demand remains historically weak, commuters are beginning to head back to their offices, opting for the isolation of their personal vehicles and abandoning public transit.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Silver Springboards Higher – What’s Next? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

The silver market is on the move. In fact, it’s finally moving out ahead of other precious metals and showing some real leadership.

After the panic selling of March briefly brought spot silver below $12/oz, prices have since surged by 50%. That’s an impressive move to take place within the span of just two months.

The question for investors now is whether the recent rally in silver is fleeting or sustainable – whether it’s evidence of extreme market volatility that suggests more danger ahead or the first leg of a much larger bull market to come.

In our view, there is good reason to believe that the March 2020 lows will never be violated and that silver is therefore in a structural bull market.

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