Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, September 16, 2012
Understanding Deflation, Pro Football Defense, Downside Pressure on Prices Has Only Begun / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
You've heard (and probably used) the phrase, "I'd rather watch the game on television."
It's what a sports fan says if he doesn't want to face traffic jams, inadequate parking, overpriced tickets, noisy crowds, and possibly a poor view of the game.
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Thursday, September 13, 2012
Hyperinflation Is Virtually Assured – John Williams / Economics / HyperInflation
By: Videos
The Federal Reserve is talking about “unlimited QE,” or money printing, to boost employment. Economist John Williams says, “That’s absolutely nonsense. The Fed is just propping up the banks.” Williams says, “You’re likely going to see a dollar sell-off . . . That should evolve into hyperinflation.”
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
A Decade of Volatility: Demographics, Debt, and Deflation / Economics / Deflation
By: John_Mauldin
Harry Dent gave a speech I listened to a while back, and I got him to transcribe it for this week's Outside the Box. One thing about Harry is, you are never left wondering what he thinks about a topic. He sees inevitable demography-caused deflation in our future and makes some very intriguing arguments that deserve pondering.
At the end is a link to another report and a way to subscribe to his letter, if you are interested in more of his perspective. But first, I suggest you read this straightforward, informative presentation. There is also a link to the actual video of him speaking, should you prefer that.
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Tuesday, September 11, 2012
ECB Calmed the Markets, Will China Act Next? / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Frank_Holmes
After Mario Draghi announced the European Central Bank's new bond buying program, I was the first guest on CNBC Asia's Squawk Box to weigh in on this decision. I reiterated my stance that the endgame for Europe would be to print money, which will eventually lead to currency wars. These actions are positive for gold and also for increased economic activity.
Sunday, September 09, 2012
How Down Economic Statistics Can Be Up if You Make the Rules, QE3? / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: John_Mauldin
"In the financial markets, the current economic cycle is still often viewed as if it is comparable to the far shorter cycles we have experienced since World War II. If that was indeed the case, the solution would be to implement fiscal and monetary stimuli now until lending to the private sector and thereby growth rise substantially. However, what is being overlooked is that the total debt/GDP ratio has risen so sharply over the past 75 years that the limit has probably been reached.
Saturday, September 08, 2012
U.S. August Employment Data Contains Ample Evidence to Justify QE3 / Economics / Employment
By: Asha_Bangalore
Before examining the nitty-gritty aspects of the August employment report, the main take away is that the overall tone of the numbers is disappointing. In addition, recent economic reports also cast a long shadow. The three consecutive monthly readings of the factory PMI that are below the critical mark of 50 (which denotes a contraction in factory activity) and the drop in July construction outlays are each sufficiently worrisome signals to win over the skeptics in the FOMC.
Saturday, September 08, 2012
Are Euro-zone Rescue Efforts Too Late To Prevent A Global Recession? / Economics / Global Economy
By: Sy_Harding
Economic growth continues to slow at an accelerated pace globally, not just in Greece and Spain, and other euro-zone countries in the headlines, but in the world’s ten largest economies of the U.S., China, Japan, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Italy, India, and Canada. The 17-nation eurozone as a whole is already in a recession. Many other nations are just barely keeping their heads above water.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 07, 2012
Central Banks Attack on Aggregate Demand / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Andy_Sutton
We are now at least somewhat clear on one central bank’s plans for the economies under control. Save a significant reversal, the European Central Bank (ECB) is going to ‘nuclear’. That is to say the bank will engage on a program of bond buying in the Eurozone that is unlimited in scope, duration, and magnitude. A thoroughly anemic August jobs report has now applied even more pressure on the USFed to act when it meets next week. While the markets will undoubtedly cheer any indication of further monetization or a formal announcement itself with a flurry of high-frequency trading activity, this is nothing for Mr. and Mrs. Main Street to get too excited about. Why? The idea that money is being pumped into the economy sounds pretty good especially if some of it lands in your lap, right? Once again, things are not always what they seem and this is another prime example.
Friday, September 07, 2012
U.S. Economic Report Card / Economics / US Economy
By: Richard_Mills
Let's ask ourselves two simple questions;
- How do economists, and Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke is an economist, discern whether an economy is growing, is vibrant and healthy? Well, for most economists it's a simple number, they use a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to measure the state of the economy.
- What's the most important thing for a politician? The answer is getting reelected.
Thursday, September 06, 2012
U.S. Structural Unemployment Trillion Dollar Question / Economics / Unemployment
By: Ian_R_Campbell
Why read: Because it is arguable that the most important questions facing America and its politicians today are:
Tuesday, September 04, 2012
Competing with China, the Real Answers are Never that Simple / Economics / China Economy
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes:Q - The Chinese copy everything. Companies can't make money there, especially lately.
A - That's simply not true. Domestic Chinese companies have made plenty of money. So have foreign companies like McDonalds, ABB, Coke, and even GM, which have been fabulously successful there because they've taken the time to localize their products.
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Tuesday, September 04, 2012
Central Bankers Fail to Understand Forces Holding Back the Economy / Economics / Central Banks
By: Mike_Shedlock
Central bankers Debating the Limits of Power in Jackson Hole are wondering what's holding back the economy.
Read full article... Read full article..."What is holding the economy back? Why is it that we've had such incredibly accommodative monetary policy for so long (but) we've had so little growth? I think it remains a puzzle," said Donald Kohn, who is now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington.
Sunday, September 02, 2012
The U.S. Consumer Has In Fact Changed / Economics / US Economy
By: Tony_Pallotta
The consumer represents 70% of total economic output. So as the bond market is to the capital market, so is the consumer to the economy. When the consumer sneezes, the economy catches more than just a cold.
Since the "end" of the 2008 recession something very interesting has happened to the US economy. The US consumer has actually changed their spending habits. They have actually started to live more within their means. And that is a very positive sign for a number of reasons both financially and socially.
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Friday, August 31, 2012
Europe Remains the Wildcard in the Global Economy / Economics / Global Economy
By: InvestmentContrarian
George Leong writes: The muted growth in Europe is far-reaching and negatively impacting the global economy…and the evidence for this is mounting.
Six eurozone countries are in a recession, and Germany and France could join in next year.
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Friday, August 31, 2012
U.S. Economies Financial Tectonic Plates Are Shifting Once Again / Economics / US Economy
By: EWI
History books call the period after the War of 1812 "The Era of Good Feelings."
America was a young nation that had a sense of purpose. National political strife was at a minimum; optimism was in the air.
Major advances in technology and engineering brought the country turnpikes for easier travel and "The Canal Craze" for more efficient commerce.
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Thursday, August 30, 2012
When Is Fractional-Reserve Banking Inflationary? / Economics / Inflation
By: Michael_S_Rozeff
The takeaway here is that fractional-reserve banking is not inflationary per se. Fractional-reserve banking is inflationary when combined with central banks with unconstrained fiat money powers. The real culprit in inflation is an unconstrained central bank. Since central banks are created or enabled by governments, the real culprit in inflation is government. In turn, inflation cannot be controlled unless proper government, which really means proper law, is instituted and respected.
Thursday, August 30, 2012
U.S. 2012:Q2 GDP Growth Upward Revision Reflects Stronger Final Sales / Economics / US Economy
By: Asha_Bangalore
The real gross domestic product of the US economy grew at annual rate of 1.7% in the second quarter, slightly higher than the original estimate of a 1.5% increase. Stronger growth in consumer spending, a smaller trade gap, and an upward revision of government outlays more than offset reductions in business investment outlays and residential investment expenditures to result in a higher estimate of GDP for the second quarter. As a result of the revisions, final sales increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the second quarter, previously reported as a 1.2% gain. (Details of GDP data are available here).
Thursday, August 30, 2012
BEA Revises Estimate of Annualized U.S. GDP Economic Growth to 1.73% / Economics / US Economy
By: CMI
In their first revision to their estimate of the second quarter 2012 GDP, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) found that the annualized rate of U.S. domestic economic growth was 1.73%, up 0.19% from their initial estimate -- but still down about a quarter of a percent from the 1.97% reported for the prior quarter and down over two and a quarter percent from the 4.10% growth rate for the 4th quarter of 2011. The changes in the GDP growth shown in this report do not represent actual month-to-month changes in the economy, but merely a refined understanding of the previously reported data for the second quarter.
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Nazi Economics, a Lesson from History / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Bill_Bonner
Adam Tooze, a British historian, has written a marvelous book on the Nazi economy, The Wages of Destruction. He shows that, far from illustrating the success of intelligent central planning, the German economy of the Third Reich was a disaster. The National Socialists – or “Nazis” – had their plans for Germany. They were determined to put them into practice, regardless of what the Germans may have wanted for themselves. They fiddled with one sector after another.
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
Australia Running Out of Luck, Economy Leveraged to Slowing China / Economics / Austrailia
By: John_Mauldin
While it is summer in the Northern Hemisphere, it is winter "down under." Today we turn our attention to Australia. In Endgame, Jonathan Tepper and I devoted a full chapter to talking about the problems we saw looming in Australia, and for that we have taken some heat! What's not to like about the Land of Oz? In our view, it might be the bubbles that are building. I asked Jonathan to update us on Australia, and in today's Outside the Box he gives us an in-depth look. Let me quote from a point near the end, in case you might decide to look just at the summary: