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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Stimulus-fueled Economic Recovery End Game / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Peter_Schiff

Economic data over the past weeks, punctuated by last week's dismal employment reports, confirm the diminishing impact of the stimulus efforts orchestrated by the Obama Administration and the Federal Reserve. In what must be a huge disappointment to Keynesian enthusiasts, the record doses of both monetary and fiscal narcotics did not produce the desired results. In fact, the size and scope of the "recovery" of the past two years was weaker than would have been expected in a typical business cycle recovery without any stimulus whatsoever. Indeed our current recovery is the weakest on record, despite the biggest jolt of government stimulus ever administered.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

UK CPI Inflation Holds at 4.5% as Stealth Theft of Wealth and Debt Default Continues / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK CPI Inflation remained at 4.5% for the month of May at more than twice the Bank of England's 2% target that continues to make a mockery of the central bank who's primary remit is supposedly price stability, where 3% is supposed to be the maximum level a break of which was supposedly to trigger panic responses to bring inflation under control, instead of which the Bank of England has instead opted to pump out temporarily high inflation propaganda for the past 18 months. Meanwhile the more recognised RPI Inflation measure nudged higher to 5.2% which is set against average pay rises of just 2%.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Key Economic Reports Prior to June 21-22 FOMC Meeting / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt is widely recognized that the U.S. economy has lost momentum in the second quarter. The FOMC meeting of June 21-22 and Chairman Bernanke's press conference of June 22 will focus on this aspect. In the meanwhile, a string of economic reports are scheduled for publication prior to the FOMC meeting. Of these reports, retail sales, Consumer Price Index, industrial production, and housing starts should be the major market movers and they will have a bearing on the policy outlook presented after the close of the FOMC meeting.

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Economics

Monday, June 13, 2011

Kress Cycle Economic Tsunami / Economics / Cycles Analysis

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleForgotten in the avalanche of economic headlines in recent weeks is the fact that the housing market hit a new low. In the latest reporting month the national housing index hit a new low, falling below the previous low from April 2009. This should be prompting a nationwide debate in the press as to whether a new down leg in the housing market lies ahead. Instead, all we hear is crickets.

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Economics

Monday, June 13, 2011

The Keys to Economic Growth and New Jobs / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

Recent economic data show that U.S. job growth in May was negligible, while the official unemployment figure-- at least the figure the Labor Department admits to-- rose to 9.1%. The real unemployment figure, however, as compiled by economist John Williams, may well be higher than 20%. It is clear the U.S. economy is in terrible shape, and that no amount of government spending or Federal Reserve quantitative easing can reduce unemployment, increase real productivity, or address our debt fiasco.U.S. jobs and productivity are dependent on the accumulation of private capital to finance existing businesses or fund new entrepreneurial activity. Private capital-- whether accumulated by profitable U.S. businesses, invested by private equity and venture capital firms, or attracted from abroad-- is the key to economic growth and new jobs. But we cannot create jobs if we demonize profits, punish risk-taking capitalists, and stay hostile to foreign investment.

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Economics

Sunday, June 12, 2011

Where Is The Economic Recovery? I Cannot Seem To Find It / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe only thing worse than being blind is having sight but no vision." - Helen Keller

Possibly the only thing worse than having a serious problem on your hands is when you clearly do not understand the problem. You ignore the data and find an easy scapegoat for why the problem is temporary and will pass. The slowdown in the US economy is not transitory as the Fed chairman states. Hopes for 3-4% GDP growth in the second half of 2011 are simply that, hope.

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Economics

Sunday, June 12, 2011

The Unemployment Conspiracy; It's the Policy, Stupid / Economics / Unemployment

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen the recovery began 2 years ago, the rate of unemployment was 9.5 percent. Today it's 9.1 percent. Think about that for a minute. Doesn't that prove that the market isn't really self-correcting after all? I mean, if the market was self-correcting then unemployment would have gone down by now, right? But, it hasn't. Why?

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Economics

Friday, June 10, 2011

Greek Unemployment and GDP / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Ian_R_Campbell

The officially reported U.S. unemployment rate currently is 9.1%, and is frequently said by pundits to be at about 20% if all those Americans who have 'given up' looking for work are counted. Under any assumption the current U.S. unemployment rate is at extremely high levels by any historic standard - and everyone agrees, without really knowing where improvement is going to come from - that the reported U.S. unemployment rate needs to come down, and come down sooner than later.

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Economics

Thursday, June 09, 2011

U.S. Economy Brakes Even Before Fed Takes Its Foot Off the Accelerator / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn our April 28 update, we emphasized that our forecast was in “transition” from stronger to weaker in large part depending on the behavior of bank credit. This month we have made the transition to a significantly weaker outlook, not only because of the current behavior of bank credit, but also because of the current behavior of the overall economy. With regard to the latter, even before the Federal Reserve has terminated its second round of quantitative easing – that is, even before the Fed has taken its foot off the monetary accelerator – the underlying pace of U.S. economic activity already appears to be coming in weaker than we had anticipated. Consistent with our downwardly-revised real GDP growth outlook, we have revised up our forecast for the unemployment rate. In addition, we have revised down our forecast for the yield levels of the Treasury 2- and 10-year securities. (See tables at the end of this commentary containing our current and April 28 forecasts.) If we are close to the mark on our second-half GDP and unemployment rate forecasts, we could envision another round of Fed quantitative easing commencing early in 2012 with no Fed policy interest rate hikes occurring until early 2013.

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Economics

Thursday, June 09, 2011

QE2 Unmitigated Failure – The Bernanke Chronicles / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: James_Quinn

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOur self proclaimed "expert" on the Great Depression, Ben Bernanke, seems to be feeling the pressure. His theories worked so well when he modeled them in his posh corner office at Princeton. He could saunter down the hallway and get his buddy Krugman to confirm his belief that the Federal Reserve was just too darn restrictive between 1929 and 1932, resulting in the first Great Depression. I wonder if there will be a future Federal Reserve Chairman, 80 years from now, studying how the worst Federal Reserve Chairman in history (not an easy feat) created the Greatest Depression that finally put an end to the Great American Military Empire. Bernanke spent half of his speech earlier this week trying to convince himself and the rest of the world that his extremist monetary policy of keeping interest rates at 0% for the last two years, printing money at an astounding rate, and purposely trying to devalue the US currency, had absolutely nothing to do with the surge in oil and food prices in the last year. Based on his scribbling since November of last year, it seems that Ben is trying to win his own Nobel Prize - for fiction.

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Economics

Thursday, June 09, 2011

Greece Economic Reforms at a Standstill, Deficit is Widening, Bailout Payments on Hold / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOn May 28 Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou went into a temper tantrum over an article in Der Spiegel that stated Greece missed its financial targets.

Papaconstantinou noted the report was not even out yet adding, "I have every reason to believe they will end positively for our country and that we will receive the fifth tranche."

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Economics

Thursday, June 09, 2011

U.S. May Employment Numbers Show Faults in Recovery / Economics / Employment

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

May’s employment report couldn’t come at a better time.  As soon as the Fed officially ends its quantitative easing program, new jobs data shows that the recovery investors have long been waiting for is still out of reach.

At the most topical level, the employment report was dismal – ignoring the obvious manipulation of the figures with birth and death estimates, seasonal but unreliable adjustments, and revisions to the downside that have become frequent with old employment data, there is still a gem to be found tucked deep inside the numbers.

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Economics

Thursday, June 09, 2011

Different Measures of Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleConcern about imminent inflation is at the heart of criticism of the Fed's quantitative easing programs. Charts 1 and 2 depict recent trends of much tracked price gauges and the main take away from these charts is that inflation excluding food and energy are contained and higher energy prices have translated into only a less than proportionate increase in core prices.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 08, 2011

Destruction of US Manufacturing, Confessions of an Economic Terrorist / Economics / US Economy

By: Andrew_Butter

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJust in case anyone has an idea to dispatch seventy-two SEALS by helicopter to deliver me a tap-tap, like they did to that other guy, save your money, I’m a minnow.

If you want to know the real “culprits”, have a look at this chart:

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Economics

Wednesday, June 08, 2011

Deflationary Depression in America: The Double Dip Economic Recession / Economics / Deflation

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWall Street seems to believe the waning recovery in the economy is only temporary and that further recovery is on the way. Such thinking can get you in serious trouble, unless QE3, or its equivalent, is on the way. It is on the way, as we pointed out 13 months ago. The economy cannot live and survive without it otherwise we could be looking at a minus 5% GDP for openers. Incidentally, there are those that believe that unemployment already is as bad as it was during the “Great Depression” years of thep930s. They may be correct, but we believe it was much higher than today’s 22.4% level. If government hadn’t created food stamps, Medicaid, extended unemployment benefits and other benefits, perhaps we could be close to 1930’s levels.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 08, 2011

Fed Won't Admit to the Coming Double Dip Recession / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: Despite what U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in his speech at the International Monetary Conference yesterday (Tuesday), it looks very much like we're headed for a double-dip recession.

Indeed, the economic reports of the last week or so demonstrate that the U.S. job machine was never really jump-started after the Great Recession of 2008-09.

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Economics

Wednesday, June 08, 2011

The Consumption Bust / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Fred_Sheehan

There is no end to the indicators showing the consumer is up against it. Negative home-equity, incomes, layoffs, food inflation - oh, this is tale of woe. And so, the plaintive cry: "Is this the bottom?" That seems doubtful, actually impossible, given the math.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 07, 2011

Our Economic Future, Best to Worst Case / Economics / Global Economy

By: Casey_Research

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDoug Casey, Casey Research writes: There is a great deal of uncertainty among investors about what the future of the U.S. economy may look like – so I decided to take a stab at what’s likely to happen over the next 20 years. That's enough time for a child to grow up and mature, and it's long enough for major trends to develop and make themselves felt.

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Economics

Sunday, June 05, 2011

Policymakers Have Made Another Economic Depression Unavoidable / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEquities markets have been battered all week by bad economic data sending investors piling into "risk free" Treasuries. The Dow Jones slipped 276 points on Wednesday followed by a 41 point loss on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year Treasury has ducked below 3 percent repeatedly signally a slowdown that could lead to another recession.

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Economics

Sunday, June 05, 2011

Towards a Worldwide Inflationary Depression, Collapse of the Anglo-American Empire / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAccording to our calculations we have been in an inflationary depression since February of 2009. Everyone looks back on the deflationary depression of the 1930s as a benchmark or a reference. As far as we are concerned the 1930’s depression only ended when the powers behind government arranged another war. Few talk about the recession of the early 1920s, which only lasted two years and was caused by the newly formed Fed, which financed US participation in World War I. They raised interest rates, which enticed citizens to save, which provided money for loans for research and expansion. The Fed, other than raising rates, stayed neutral, as did the Treasury. The result was the recession ended quickly. A bad story with a happy ending, which contributed to the roaring 20s, which the Fed eventually turned into a depression via their interference.

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