Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, February 28, 2010
For 15 Million Unemployed Any Job is a Good Job / Economics / Employment
By: Mike_Shedlock
Let's take a look at the employment situation and prospects for jobs starting with the cold hard numbers as they exist today. Please consider the following grim unemployment statistics.
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Cause of Today's Economic Crises: Too Much Thrift / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Mansoor_H_Khan
In this essay I want to propose that the ultimate of cause of today's economic crises is that we have too much thrift. This view is very similar to John Maynard Keynes' Paradox of Thrift. What I want to show is that this is not a paradox at all but confusion about what saving money really means and what consequences it has. I want to explain this confusion by way of examples and using non-technical economic jargon usually used by Keynesian economists. But before I can go into why too much savings leads to a disaster in the modern economy I need to clarify what I mean by savings and what money is by way of an example:
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Saturday, February 27, 2010
India vs China Economic Growth Potential / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Charles_Maley
From the Vedas we learn a practical art of surgery, medicine, music, house building under which mechanized art is included. They are encyclopedia of every aspect of life, culture, religion, science, ethics, law, cosmology and meteorology – William James, American Author
Saturday, February 27, 2010
The Euro and a Conspiracy of Hedge Funds, Wheres All the Greek Gold? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Where Is All that Greek Gold?
The Greeks Write Back
The Euro and a Conspiracy of Hedge Funds
So Where's the Inflation?
No Help for Homebuilders
The Singularity, San Antonio, Home, and Addictions
The economy grew in the fourth quarter by 5.9%, the most in years. The adjusted monetary base is exploding. Bank reserves are literally through the roof. The Fed is flooding money into the system in an effort to get banks to lend. An historically normal response by banks (to increase lending) would have been massively inflationary, causing the Fed to stomp on the brakes. Despite raising the almost meaningless discount rate (as who uses it?), this week Ben Bernanke assured Congress of an easy monetary policy, with rates remaining low for a long time. Many ask, how can this not be inflationary?
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Friday, February 26, 2010
U.S. GDP Contraction Double Dip Recession Coming In Second Quarter 2010? / Economics / Double Dip Recession
By: Mike_Shedlock
I have been speaking with Rick Davis at the Consumer Metrics Institute about leading economic indicators. Davis claims his data leads the GDP by about 17 weeks while noting that other so-called "leading indicators" are merely a reflection on the stock market and yield curve.
Davis captures his data solely from online transactions of real consumers, in real time.
Friday, February 26, 2010
To Survive Economic Deflation, First Understand It / Economics / Deflation
By: EWI
Surviving Deflation: First, Understand It
Deflation is more than just "falling prices."
Robert Prechter explains why.
The following article is an excerpt from Elliott Wave International's free Club EWI resource, "The Guide to Understanding Deflation. Robert Prechter's Most Important Writings on Deflation."
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Friday, February 26, 2010
The Recession Is Most Certainly Over / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: "There are still no jobs here," my friend Lee tells me.
Lee used to work for a beachfront resort on Florida's east coast. Our town was built on tourism and real estate. Both are dead. The resort is on the brink of bankruptcy.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
More Credit Default Swaps Means Trouble for European Debt / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: EWI
Government debt is no longer just a problem for emerging countries. Portugal, Spain, France and Greece (as we have seen in recent weeks) are living in fear of credit default. Consequently, the value of their credit default swaps is skyrocketing.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
U.S. Weekly Unemployment Claims Spike, Will Economic Reality Soon Set In? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Mike_Shedlock
Yesterday the market rallied the moment Bernanke started yapping to Congress about holding interest rates low for a considerable length of time. Pray tell what did he say that anyone should not have expected?
Thursday, February 25, 2010
As Greece Goes, So Goes the U.S.? / Economics / US Debt
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Greece hasn't gotten so much press since 146 B.C. when the Romans took over. Of late, Greece sneezes and investors think the U.S. is going to catch the swine flu. Of course, it is not just Greece. Greece is part of the EU and the EMU. So, it is thought that as goes Greece, so goes Europe. And then, the next step is that as goes Europe, so goes the U.S. But is Europe really where the action is with regard to U.S. economic growth?
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Inflation as the Enemy of Investing / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Douglas_French
In this age of inflation, we are all forced to do many tasks that others could do better for us. The fact is that inflation impedes the process of civilization, which is brought about by the division of labor. While, without the central bank's continual monetary infusions, prices would gently fall as technology made all things and all people more efficient, we don't enjoy that luxury. Instead we're mowing our own grass, fixing the flappers in our toilet tanks, and managing our own retirement funds.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Leading Economic Indicators Keep Rising, but … / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Claus_Vogt
Last Thursday the Conference Board published its Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. In January this historically-reliable indicator increased 0.3 percent after shooting up 1.2 percent in December and 1.1 percent in November. This was the tenth consecutive rise!
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Greek Debit Crisis European Sideshow / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Peter_Schiff
If the global economy were a three ring circus, then the center ring attraction would be the currency and debt battle quietly and slowly building between the United States and China. But for the past month the world's attention has been distracted by a much more entertaining sideshow in which European unity, and the ongoing viability of the euro, is being tested by the Greek debt crisis.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2010
U.K. Keynesian Disaster Economy, Crippling Budget Deficit and Rising Prices / Economics / UK Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The U.K. is the poster child for Keynesian stupidity carried out to extreme levels. In an extremely well written article, Matthew Lynn, a Bloomberg columnist discusses the sorry state of British affairs in Deathbed of Keynesian Economics Will Be in U.K.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Government Deficits and Debts or Spending the Big Issue? / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Whether it is Greece or the US, it seems as though the headline du jour involves government deficits and debt. The Obama administration has taken a lot of heat for its projected US deficit and debt ratios. But are government deficits and debt really the big economic issues or is it government spending? Milton Friedman thought that the ultimate economic cost of government was not how the government funded itself, but how much funding the government was engaged in. Friedman understood that just as the Northwest Mountie always gets his man, the federal government always gets its funds.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Over-Arching Sovereign Debt Crisis / Economics / Global Debt Crisis
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Neither the US financial press nor the US bank leaders take the sovereign debt crisis seriously. Even the USCongress seems totally unaware of the growing global intolerance for government debt out of control. The issue is rollover of short-term debt, size of the overall debt burden, borrowing costs to sustain the debt, annual deficits that accumulate further debt, and size of debt versus economic size. The United States projects a certain degree of arrogance that foreigner must continue to finance the USGovt debt at a time when the evidence gathers on loud suspicious activity in the USTreasury auctions.
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Inflation Hiding In Plain Sight, The Key To Profits / Economics / Inflation
By: Bob_Clark
As an Account Manager and Trading Instructor, there is a theme I see that keeps recurring. I hear this from my clients and students over and over, "things are so bad how can I be safe buying". I hear "we are going to have hyper inflation" or "it is all going to collapse into a deflationary abyss. In other words, they lose their bearings in a sea of information. My answer is always the same, we must trust our algorithmic models. Markets will fluctuate, what you read or listen to is illusion. When one group has all the money, the rules of the game have changed. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 22, 2010
Not So Fast for U.S. Economy, Inflation and therefore Fed Tightening / Economics / Economic Recovery
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Not so fast for the economy, for inflation and, therefore, for Fed tightening. The Commerce Department's first guess at Q4:2009 real GDP growth of 5.7% is likely to be the fastest quarterly annualized growth we see for some time. Rather, sequential annualized growth rates over the first three quarters of this year are going to be on the order of less than one-half that of the last year's fourth quarter. Although one month does not a trend make, consumer inflation in January already shows signs of abating a bit.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Government Stimulus, One Year Later / Economics / Economic Stimulus
By: Dr_Ron_Paul
Last week marked the one year anniversary of the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act, or the stimulus bill, passing into law. While the debate over its success has been focused on whether or not it is stimulating the economy and on various questionable uses of funds, in my estimation this legislation is accomplishing exactly what it was intended to accomplish - grow the government.
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Sunday, February 21, 2010
U.S. 1800 Bank Failures Financial Tsunami on Horizon / Economics / Credit Crisis 2010
By: Fresbee
CalculatedRisk predicts 2010 to account for more number of failures than 2009 but lesser than the peak of 534 in 1989.
Read full article... Read full article...My prediction is the FDIC will close more banks in 2010 than in 2009 (more than 140), but fewer banks than in 1989 – peak of the S&L crisis (534 banks).