Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Economic Recession Forecasting "V" or "U" Shaped? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
Years ago there was an equity strategist at Bache-Halsey (I said it was years ago) who almost always got it wrong. When he finally was forced to leave "to pursue other interests," clients were furious. The guy was a near-perfect negative indicator. When he said buy, it usually paid off to sell.
You know where this is going. A certain "economist" is forecasting a "V"-shaped economic and stock-market recovery based on a forecast of a "V"-shaped recovery in monetary velocity.
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Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Looming Recession Could have been a Lot Worse / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: The U.S. economy is entering a recession. With each day that passes and each indicator we see, that eventuality becomes more and more clear.
Even so, we can take some real comfort in knowing that we're likely going to avoid the “bottomless pit” of a Great Depression II. A substantial recession with accompanying inflation – roughly along the lines of the downturns of 1974 and 1980-82 – seems the most likely scenario we face.
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Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Fed Attempting To Prevent "Great Depression II" / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Mike_Shedlock
Bernanke and the Fed have to be miffed over their lack of traction in addressing the credit bubble. Of course if Bernanke understood simple economics as explained in Impossible To Get Something For Nothing , he would not be doing the silly things he is doing such as running out of letters in his alphabet soup of lending facilities.
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Tuesday, October 21, 2008
The U.S. FED: What! Me Worry? / Economics / Money Supply
By: David_Haas
From time-to-time, I like to swing by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRBSL) website to check on their “aggregate” monetary and financial indicators and measure the pulse of our nation's economic base - which is the overall supply of money and credit in the United States economy. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Financial Markets and Economic Events Day Ahead: October 22, 2008 / Economics / Global Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
Day In Review: US Fed creates $540bln new facility to relieve pressure on money market mutual funds caused by redemption requests.
Weak earnings at bellwethers Caterpillar and DuPont, as well as, Texas Instruments and Sun Microsystems were the primary catalyst for a negative day in equities
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Tuesday, October 21, 2008
The Paradox of Deleveraging Vs Something for Nothing Economics / Economics / Deflation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Earlier today, in Keynesian Claptrap From PIMCO I spoke of the ridiculousness of the paradox of thrift . Here two more articles worth your time reading that rebut the seemingly never ending Keynesian Claptrap coming from the likes of Bernanke, Paulson, PIMCO, Roubini, and Krugman. I make the above statement with one reservation. Nouriel Roubini has called this economic disaster as well as anyone. I commend him for many brilliant calls. However I simply cannot sit back and say nothing about the barrage of bad economic thinking in regards to the solution to this crisis coming from everyone in the group above.
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Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Capital and Liquidity Injections Results in Modest Credit Market Improvement / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
Credit and Money Supply Indicators: The injection of capital and elimination of caps on swap lines between foreign central banks and the Fed have engineered modest improvement in credit indictors over the past week.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
The United States, Europe and Bretton Woods II to Avoid Economic Depression / Economics / Global Financial System
By: STRATFOR
French President Nicolas Sarkozy and U.S. President George W. Bush met Oct. 18 to discuss the possibility of a global financial summit. The meeting ended with an American offer to host a global summit in December modeled on the 1944 Bretton Woods system that founded the modern economic system. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 20, 2008
The End of Friedmanite Economics / Economics / Global Financial System
By: Mike_Whitney
Monday last week, the stock market recorded its biggest one day gain in history on news that the G-7 had settled on a plan to recapitalize the banking system. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) all agreed to make direct capital injections into "systemically important" banks so they could resume lending and reduce stress in the credit markets. They also decided to insure deposits and to guarantee interbank lending. Do you think that these unprecedented steps will be enough to avert a meltdown of the financial system?Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 20, 2008
Ghost of John Maynard Keynes- Comments on Economic and Financial Crisis / Economics / Credit Crisis 2008
By: William_R_Thomson
1/What is your view of how long the financial system crisis will continue and how much deeper it will it get?
One can only hazard a guess by looking at other experiences with banking crises. Japan took about 5 years from the time it started to recapitalize its banks. Sweden and Thailand took a little less time but none were V shaped recoveries. There is a far greater urgency to efforts now in the US and Europe after a year of dithering and denial but these are still early days and the scale being global is larger and we have the unprecedented scale of the derivative problem. It could still spiral out of control requiring the whole banking sector to be taken into public ownership, but more likely we will have an extended period of recession and subnormal growth covering much of the Obama presidency – assuming he wins.
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Monday, October 20, 2008
US Faces Recession Despite Bernanke's Stimulus Package / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: David_Shvartsman
I don't want to start off this week's posts with the usual comparisons of our current economic climate to the Great Depression, but we do have some news out acknowledging the onset of a notable US recession. From FT, "US faces worst recession in 26 years" :
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Monday, October 20, 2008
U.S. Container Shipping Slump Follows Baltic Dry Shipping Index Collapse / Economics / Global Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
Container shipping stats at the Ports of Long Beach, LA, and Portland are all down. This is consistent with the Collapse of the Baltic Dry Shipping Index . Inbound container stats year to date are down 9.0% year to date at LA, 10.8% at Long Beach, and 9.9% at Portland. This does not portend well for expected consumer demand headed into the all important Christmas season.
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Monday, October 20, 2008
U.S. States Face Tax Shortfalls, Frugality To Hit Budgets / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Los Angeles Times is reporting States face new budget shortfalls .The moribund economy is drying up tax revenues more dramatically than expected, forcing 22 states, including California, to confront growing budget gaps. Some states have already eliminated jobs and services -- and more cuts are likely.
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Sunday, October 19, 2008
The Crumbling U.S. Economy, Worse is Yet to Come / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: Money_and_Markets
The Crumbling U.S. Economy, Worse is Yet to Come
Mike Larson writes: I invest prudently to help ensure the future financial well-being of my wife and two daughters. And Martin, who visited us recently, shares the same philosophy.
But when future history books are written on the twenty-first century, they will probably show that this time — right now — was the most dangerous for investors in decades.
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Sunday, October 19, 2008
Economic Forecasts and Analysis For U.S. Financial Markets (Oct 20-24) / Economics / US Economy
By: Joseph_Brusuelas
After the heaviest week of Fed talk and macro data releases in recent memory, the calendar will see a very light week of rhetoric and economic releases. Monday, will see the publication of the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators, Thursday the weekly jobless claims data and the week will conclude with the publication of the September existing home sales.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Leading U.S. Economic Indicators Hit 33 Year Lows / Economics / US Economy
By: Mike_Shedlock
The Economic Cycle Research Institute ECRI reports Weekly Leading Index Growth at 33-yr Low .
A measure of future economic growth in the United States fell to its worst level in 6 years and its annualized growth rate had its biggest weekly decline in almost four decades to hit a fresh 33-year low, a search group said on Friday.
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Saturday, October 18, 2008
The Financial and Economic Blue Screen of Death / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010
By: John_Mauldin
- The Psyche of the American Consumer
- The Consumer Weakens
- The Paradox of Thrift
- An Economic Blue Screen Of Death
- Those Wild And Crazy Analysts
This week I am in California giving two speeches to the Financial Planning Associations of San Diego and Orange County. This and next week's letters will be the broad outline of the speech. We will look at how the retreat of the American consumer will affect the stock market. Has the recent drop (can we say crash, gentle reader?) in stock market valuations given us an opportunity to find value? We look at some very powerful evidence that suggests that may be so. Then we look at the counter to that view. Are we at the bottom, or is there more pain? And given the current state of affairs, how should we then invest? Where do we put our money to work when the dust settles, as it surely will.
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Friday, October 17, 2008
Paper Money Printing and Inflation, a Lesson From History / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: Adrian_Ash
Paper Money Printing and Inflation, a Lesson From History
"You can't blame the king of Persia for printing up money no one could trust. His neighbors in China were doing the same, after all, and with the same inevitable consequences, too..."
Friday, October 17, 2008
Current Stock Market Crash and the Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression
By: Peter_Schiff
The current stock market crash has spurred a vital national debate about the causes and catalysts of the Great Depression. The dominant school of thought believes that the stubborn refusal of then president Hebert Hoover to intervene after the stock market crash of 1929, and his preference for free market solutions, led directly to the ensuing decade-long catastrophe. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, October 17, 2008
Deflation Scare the Perfect Camouflage for Inflationary Money Printing / Economics / Stagflation
By: Chris_Galakoutis
It is said the market can sniff out prospective problems and price itself accordingly. If so, then someone needs to get this dog some nasal spray, lickedy-split! The deflation scare currently hovering over the entire market, particularly in the metals and commodities sectors, has been brutal. But the key question today is whether this “scare” will evolve into a genuine deflation threat to the US and the world? Read full article... Read full article...