Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, August 12, 2015
China is Lying About Its Economy / Economics / China Economy
By: Harry_Dent
I and a few brave experts such as Jim Chanos, Gordon Chang, and David Stockman (speaking at our upcoming IES conference) have been arguing for years that China has the greatest investment and overbuilding bubble in all of modern history.We’ve also warned that its economic statistics are not real – they are purposefully overstated and then revised later, if at all.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2015
Closing the Sausage Factory - The New Normal / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
“Bureaucracy destroys initiative. There is little that bureaucrats hate more than innovation, especially innovation that produces better results than the old routines. Improvements always make those at the top of the heap look inept. Who enjoys appearing inept?”
– Frank Herbert, Heretics of Dune
“Economies naturally grow. People innovate as they go through life. They also look around at what others are doing and adopt better practices or tools. They invest, accumulating financial, human and physical capital.
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Saturday, August 08, 2015
U.S. Official Unemployment 5.3%, Real 10.4% / Economics / Unemployment
By: Mike_Shedlock
Initial Reaction
Today's job report (for July) once again showed a divergence between the household survey and the establishment survey.
The divergence was not as large as last month, but was in the same usual direction: The establishment survey was stronger than the household survey.
Household survey employment rose by 101,000 while the establishment survey shows an increase of 215,000 jobs.
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Thursday, August 06, 2015
Deflation, Debt and Gravity / Economics / Deflation
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Far too many people have already used lines like “We Are All Greeks Now” for the words to hold on to much if any meaning by now. But it’s still a very accurate description of what awaits us all. Just not for the same reasons most who used it, did.
No, I don’t really want to talk about Greece again. I want to talk about where you live. And about how similar the two will be not too long from now. How Greece is holding up a lesson and a big red flashing warning sign for all of us.
Greece is the mold upon which all of our futures will be based. Quite literally. Greece is a test tube baby rat.
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Wednesday, August 05, 2015
Services ISM Soar, ADP Disappoints / Economics / US Economy
By: Ashraf_Laidi
USD recovered from a disappointing ADP reading to rally across the board when the headline July services ISM hit a 10-year high of 60.3 from June's 56.0. The employment component soared to a 10-year high of 59.6, posting the biggest monthly increase in the history of ISM/NAPM report.
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Wednesday, August 05, 2015
Is Japan’s Inflation Failing? / Economics / Inflation
By: Gary_Tanashian
We begin with NFTRH.com’s post from July 16 noting the message I got from a former associate (from my previous life as a manufacturer)…
“Just an update for you, some disturbing news has leaked out this week. Machine tool builders have put out blow out [lists] to all sales persons in the USA, not sure if world wide. Mori Seiki list has 600 to 700 machines on it WOW!!! never have i heard of such a huge list by any one Builder. Not sure what they see coming but it can’t be good.”
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Wednesday, August 05, 2015
In Greece, Reliance on Public Funds Is the Central Problem / Economics / Government Spending
By: MISES
Justin Murray writes: Greece is a hot topic at the moment, mostly with the continued negotiations over bailouts from the European Union and, through institutions like the IMF, the world at large. Much of the discussion paints the image that Greece is only a debt-restructuring away from a stable economic situation. However, without understanding how Greece got into this problem in the first place and identifying the root cause of an over-indebted society, any plan or solution has a high probability of failure. To crack into this root cause, I had to develop an entirely new metric called “implied public reliance.”
Monday, August 03, 2015
When China Stopped Acting Chinese / Economics / China Economy
By: John_Mauldin
“The one thing I know for sure about China is, I will never know China. It's too big, too old, too diverse, too deep. There's simply not enough time.”– Anthony Bourdain, Parts Unknown
Much of the world is focused on what is happening in Greece and Europe. A lot of people are paying attention to the Middle East and geopolitics. These are significant concerns, for sure; but what has been happening in China the past few months has more far-reaching global investment implications than Europe or the Middle East do. Most people are aware of the amazing run-up in the Shanghai stock index and the recent “crash.” The government intervened and for a time has halted the rapid drop in the markets.
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Friday, July 31, 2015
Jackson Hole All About Inflation / Economics / Inflation
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Another FOMC statement and another swing at the law of probability. Some banks are considering the probability of a September Fed hike to be as high as 70%. Others prefer to hedge themselves with more appropriate qualitative means of referring to September as a "high probability outcome as long as....", citing the two upcoming jobs report and their average hourly earnings components. But even if the next two jobs reports are accompanied by robust hourly earnings, the inflation objective remains in doubt. We've long mentioned in previous pieces how the 20% decline in oil since early May will further retard any recovery in price growth, which has prompted the Fed to drop its phrase in the FOMC statement that "energy prices have stabilized" discussed here.
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Thursday, July 30, 2015
The War On Cash: Why Now? / Economics / Fiat Currency
By: MISES
Charles Hugh Smith writes:
You’ve probably read that there is a “war on cash” being waged on various fronts around the world. What exactly does a “war on cash” mean?
It means governments are limiting the use of cash and a variety of official-mouthpiece economists are calling for the outright abolition of cash. Authorities are both restricting the amount of cash that can be withdrawn from banks, and limiting what can be purchased with cash.
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Thursday, July 30, 2015
Greece - The IMF Experts Flunk, Again / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Steve_H_Hanke
My Globe Asia column in May was titled “Greece: Down and Probably Out.” Well, it’s out. Yes, Greece descended from drama to farce rapidly.If all goes according to plan, the left-wing Greek government will come to an agreement with the so-called troika – the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) – over the details of a third bailout program by August 20th. This rescue package will probably be worth €86 billion (U.S. $94.5 billion). So, since 2010, Greece will have received three bailouts worth a whopping €430 billion (U.S. $472.2 billion). This amounts to a staggering €39,000 (U.S. $42,831) for every man, woman, and child in Greece.
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Wednesday, July 29, 2015
Chinese Corporatism Turns Sour / Economics / China Economy
By: BATR
As even the casual observer of the effects from the corporatist model for economic commerce knows, permanence in a developing prosperity is transient at best. What becomes the rush to ratchet up industrial production ends up in a piercing disappointment for long term stability. China is the latest example of a corporatist model in serious trouble. And who will suffer the most? Those dependent on export manufacturing are clearly poised for a very bumpy ride. While the oligarchs play global chess with their foreign companies, the enterprise of creating a rise in world-wide wealth suffers.
Wednesday, July 29, 2015
Greece- What Happens When Economists Talk Politics / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Raul_I_Meijer
As the “Varoufakis Files” provide everyone interested in the Greek tragi-comedy with an additional million pages of intriguing fodder -we all really needed that added layer of murky conspiracy, re: the Watergate tapes-, a different question has been playing in my head. Again. That is: Why are economists discussing politics?
Why are the now 6 month long Greece vs Troika discussions being conducted by the people who conduct them? All parties involved are apparently free to send to the table whoever they want, and while that seems nice and democratic, it doesn’t necessarily make it the best possible idea. To, in our view, put it mildly.
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Friday, July 24, 2015
What Blows Up Next? Part 1: Resource-Based Economies / Economics / Brazil
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com
The Great Recession and its aftermath was actually the best of times for countries with natural resources to sell. The US, Europe and Japan ran record deficits and cut interest rates to zero or thereabouts, sending hot money pouring into mining and energy projects around the world, while China borrowed (as it turned out) $15 trillion for an epic infrastructure build-out.
Thursday, July 23, 2015
Commodities Damage to BRICs Economic Cushion / Economics / Emerging Markets
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Aside from $ trillions in monetary stimulus from the world's major central banks, a major source to the recovery from the 2008-9 global financial crisis emerged from the BRICs economies. The dependence on commodities exports from Brazil, Russia and China proved instrumental in these economies' rapid comeback thanks to the cushion from rapid gains in agricultural and energy prices from 2002 to 2008. But now that agricultural commodities have crashed, metals crumbled and energy plummeted, what becomes of the BRICs engine to the world economy?
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Wednesday, July 22, 2015
Japan Ageing Population Still a Problem With No Solution / Economics / Japan Economy
By: Rodney_Johnson
There’s a village in Japan where the dead outnumber the living, and I don’t mean the ancestors in the cemetery. The bodies are dispersed around the small town of Nagoro.It’s a small community of some 35 people, most in their 60s or older. The place is so sparsely populated that the locals consider their 150-plus dead a part of their community.
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Tuesday, July 21, 2015
Worker Productivity and Modern-Day Horse Manure / Economics / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
“They just use your mind and they never give you credit. It’s enough to drive you crazy if you let it.”
Almost everyone wants to be more productive. I include myself in that group – there are lots of ways I could be more productive. When I have conversations with people I think are very productive, they almost always tell me they wish they were more productive. What more could anyone expect from them?
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Monday, July 20, 2015
The Fed’s Confusion Over the "Natural Rate" of Unemployment and Inflation / Economics / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Frank_Shostak
In May, the US unemployment rate stood at 5.5 percent against the rate of 5.3 percent for the “natural unemployment,” also known as the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU).
According to the popular view, once the actual unemployment rate falls to below the NAIRU, or the natural unemployment rate, the rate of inflation tends to accelerate and economic activity becomes overheated. (This acceleration in the rate of inflation takes place through increases in the demand for goods and services. It also lifts the demand for workers and puts pressure on wages, reinforcing the growth in inflation).
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Sunday, July 19, 2015
Canada in Recession Admits Canadian Central Bank, Operation Twist? / Economics / Recession 2015
By: Mike_Shedlock
... The Solution: More Bubbles; Operation Twist Canadian Style?
The Bank of Canada admitted on Wednesday that Canada was in Recession. Well sort of.
Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is afraid to speak the "R-Word". Instead, Poloz phrased it this way: "Real GDP is now projected to have contracted modestly in the first half of the year."
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Sunday, July 19, 2015
Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics / Economics / Economic Statistics
By: James_Quinn
The government released their monthly CPI report this week. Even though it came in at an annualized rate of 3.6%, they and their mouthpieces in the corporate mainstream media dutifully downplayed the uptrend. They can’t let the plebs know the truth. That might upend their economic recovery storyline and put a crimp into their artificial free money, zero interest rate, stock market rally. If they were to admit inflation is rising, the Fed would be forced to raise rates. That is unacceptable in our rigged .01% economy. There are banker bonuses, CEO stock options, corporate stock buyback earnings per share goals and captured politician elections at stake.