Saturday, December 17, 2016
Financial Markets Award Trump Nobel Prize in Economics / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016
By: David_Galland
Dear Parader,
As today we are headed north to spend Christmas with the family, Jake Weber, the invaluable senior researcher of our premium Compelling Investments Quantified (CIQ) service has kindly offered to fill in for this edition.
In his article, he delves into the economic and political challenges President Trump is facing and scans for any red flags flapping in the breeze.
On the topic of CIQ, we maintain a laser-like focus on finding great companies that sell below their intrinsic value—the only proven path to successful long-term investment.
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Saturday, December 17, 2016
From Unloved & Unwanted to George Washington on Steroids: The U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: EWI
From Unloved & Unwanted to George Washington on Steroids: The U.S. Dollar
Chart of the Day
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Friday, December 16, 2016
The Stock Market Level To Watch / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Dana Lyons (Tumblr.com) makes an interesting observation about a little-known index known as the Value Line Geometric Composite Index. In his article, he draws a straight line (red) at 500.00. and says. “This far and no further.”
He misses several points, which I would like to address. First, by drawing a horizontal bar, he misses the fact that the XVG was 27 points under it in 2000 and 23 points above it in 2015. By drawing a line that is peak-to-peak, you get a different picture. In fact, what comes to mind is an Orthodox Broadening Top (I added the lower trendline to complete the formation). This is a slight variation of what you see in the DJIA and SPX.
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Friday, December 16, 2016
Radical Gold Under Investment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Zeal_LLC
Gold was again blasted to new post-election lows this week, further trashing contrarian sentiment. The Fed proved more hawkish than expected in its rate-hike-trajectory forecast, unleashing heavy selling in gold futures. This catapulted gold bearishness back up to extremes not seen in a year. Investors are once again convinced gold is doomed, and thus radically underinvested. That’s actually super-bullish for gold.
It certainly wasn’t the Fed’s second rate hike in 10.5 years this week that hammered gold. Actually that was universally expected. Federal-funds-futures traders had assigned it an average 96% probability in the two weeks leading up to that rate hike. If the Fed had simply raised its federal-funds rate by 25 basis points to a 0.50%-to-0.75% range, gold-futures speculators would’ve likely yawned. They knew it was coming.
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Friday, December 16, 2016
Trump Rally and Irrelevant Dow Theory; What’s Next Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Sol_Palha
Uncertainty and mystery are energies of life. Don't let them scare you unduly, for they keep boredom at bay and spark creativity. R. I. Fitzhenry
In September we penned a second article in the Alternative Dow theory series, titled “Dow theory no longer relevant-Better Alternative exists where we stated that the Dow theory as it stood was no longer relevant. Here is a brief excerpt from that article.
The transports topped out in November of 2014, and according to the Dow theory this is a big negative; the Dow industrials should have followed suit. Instead, the Dow soared higher paying no heed to this theory proving to a large degree that this theory has lost its value. After all, it is a theory and the definition of a theory is “a supposition or a system of ideas intended to explain something, especially one based on general principles independent of the thing to be explained.”
Friday, December 16, 2016
Gold & Miners Bottoming Signs / Commodities / Stock Markets 2016
By: Gary_Savage
A couple of months from now are traders going to look back and wonder how they could have ignored the bottoming signs?
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Friday, December 16, 2016
Will Stock Market VIX Spike Today? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Good Morning!
The SPX Premarket is up, as would be expected for the close of index options at today’s open. Volatility may spike at the open as options traders settle their trades. What happens after the institutions leave the scene?
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Friday, December 16, 2016
Trump Making Deficits and Public Debt Great Again / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Trump’s economic agenda consists of foreign policy, fiscal policy and regulatory policy. We have already commented a bit about Trump’s imprint on geopolitics and uncertainty in the context of the gold market. Now, let’s focus on the domestic policies.
First, Trump wants to reduce regulations hampering business. During the campaign he called for a moratorium on new financial regulations and for a 70 percent reduction in regulations. Importantly, in his 100-day action plan, the president-elect proposed that for every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be eliminated. Deregulation should stimulate economic growth and the stock market, which is not good for the yellow metal.
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Friday, December 16, 2016
The War on Cash Rages On in India and Venezuela / Currencies / War on Cash
By: Jeff_Berwick
Imagine you roll out of bed tomorrow to find out that US $100 and $50 bills were outlawed and deemed worthless? Hard as it is to believe, this is now taking place in both Venezuela and India.
It’s a war on cash. And it’s coming soon to your doorstep.
This past Sunday, President Maduro, the tyrannical leader of the socialist paradise of Venezuela gave a three day warning that he was eliminating his country’s 100 bolivar bank note.
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Friday, December 16, 2016
Goldman Sachs is Talking Nonsense Again: Shale will not affect Global Oil Supply until Price hits $85 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Andrew_Butter
Latest headline: “Goldman Sachs Warns the Saudis: ‘’U.S. Shale Will Respond’’”http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Goldman-Sachs-Warns-The-Saudis-US-Shale-Will-Respond.html
Reminds me of when we all used to sing-along the company song ”House Prices Always go up”; and why not? If you could get the suckers to buy that idea, selling them AAA-rated (toxic) collateralized debt obligations concocted by Goldman Sachs, was a synch. Ah...Goldman Sachs...the Divine God’s Workers; now they are experts on shale oil...what next...tropical fish? So now they are telling their customers “shale oil is a buy”, that means presumably, they are long and they are scrambling to unload their positions?
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Friday, December 16, 2016
The Fed is BEGGING China to Crash the Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash
By: Graham_Summers
What is Janet Yellen thinking?
As the Fed wound down its QE program in 2014, the $USD hit liftoff. It has since hovered in the mid- to upper-‘90s.
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Friday, December 16, 2016
How Trump Could Blow Up The Entire Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: John_Mauldin
At first glance, strictly from the point of view of the short-term impact they will have on the markets, what's not to like about the Trump/Ryan/Republican tax proposals?
Trump is proposing a top corporate tax rate of 15% , and the Ryan plan essentially calls for 20%. The proposed corporate tax reduction will really have a far greater impact than any of the proposed personal income tax cuts.
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Thursday, December 15, 2016
Seasonality Favors Gold, Silver and Junior Mining Stocks Going Into Year End / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
By: Jeb_Handwerger
Summary
Gold and silver could once again be ready to rally possibly starting in days or in the beginning of 2017.
Precious Metals usually bottom at year end then have massive rallies in the New Year.
Remember the lower it goes the higher it runs and the more gains made in the following year.
Thursday, December 15, 2016
Stock Market Sell Signals Being Generated / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX has exceeded the trendline, as anticipated. It may find max resistance at or near 2266.00, the 61.8% Fib retracement.
The next decline may fall between 60 and 100 points, challenging the Wave [iv] low or possibly the 50-day Moving Average. If so, the decline may slip into high gear.
This may be an ideal aggressive short entry.
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Thursday, December 15, 2016
SPX to Mop up Wave 2 Retracement / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The SPX Premarket is lower, but hasn’t broken yesterday’s low as I write. That leaves the possibility of a second go at the trendline at the open.
ZeroHedge reports, “This morning the world awakes to a landscape in which markets are frantically rushing to catch up to a suddenly hawkish Fed which not only hiked for the second time in a decade but, as per yesterday's Fed statement and Yellen press conference, realized it has been behind the curve all along, and the result has been a spike in the dollar across virtually all currency pairs with the USDJPY surging above 118.40, coupled with a jump in bond yields around the globe as bond (the US 10 Year is trading at 2.64%, the highest since September 2014) as traders dump any hint of duration.”
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Thursday, December 15, 2016
Fed Raised Rates 0.25% – Rising Interest Rates Positive For Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: GoldCore
The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% as expected yesterday leading to gold falling to lows last seen in February 2016 and the dollar rising to its highest level against the euro in 14 years.
Gold actually settled higher at $1,163.70 for the day yesterday. However gold futures slid to $1,156.70 an ounce in electronic trading on the rate decision at 1400 EST and soon gold was pushed down 1.3% to 10 month lows after the decision in less liquid after hour markets.
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Thursday, December 15, 2016
Stock Market New Downtrend Or Just Quick Downward Correction Before Another Leg Up? / / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,330, and profit target at 2,150, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook remains bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Thursday, December 15, 2016
Trump’s Debt Financial Revolution! / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Trump’s economic plans will increase national debt!
A Ticking time bomb!
Currently, U.S. debt stands at a mammoth $19.8 trillion and will continue to increase under President-elect Trump considering his lenient tax cuts and plans for infrastructure spending:( http://www.usdebtclock.org/).
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Thursday, December 15, 2016
Gold and Silver Now What ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Rambus_Chartology
I had a completely different post in mind for tonight, but the action in the PM complex has changed my mind. Since the US elections the PM complex has had a hard go of it trapping many bulls in their long positions. The magnitude of this decline especially in gold has been unrelenting in nature, which is how a bull trap is set. Just a short five weeks ago all looked good for this sector as it had one of the biggest rallies in history off the January low for the PM stocks. There wasn’t anything to suggest that five weeks ago the plunge was coming, but since then, there have been many clues that all was not right with the PM sector.
Thursday, December 15, 2016
FOMC Raises US Interest Rates, Market Reacts in Mood Swings / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Harry_Boxer
The stock market indices had a topsy-turvy day with the FOMC meeting taking place as they raised interest rates. The day started out with a move to the upside, they met resistance, backed off to test support, held, and although the S&P 500 made lower lows, the Nasdaq 100 did not. They then ran up into the FOMC. At that point, they made a little bit of a pop, and then went down in a steep slide, a big rally ensued, they went down in another steep slide, held support on the Nasdaq 100, but not on the S&P 500. A very sharp rally took them back almost near the rally highs, and then in the last 20-25 minutes they took a plunge into the close, and finished very ugly on the day.
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