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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Housing-Market

Saturday, December 17, 2016

US Housing Starts Dive 18.7 Percent as Mortgage Interest Rates Soar / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Mike_Shedlock

The often volatile housing starts numbers took another dive this report, down 18.7% in November according to the Census Bureau New Residential Construction report for November 2016.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 17, 2016

The 70-year US Treasury Bond Market Cycle and SPX Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / US Bonds

By: Tony_Caldaro

The market started the week at SPX 2260. After a slightly lower open on Monday the SPX rallied to the current uptrend high at 2278 on Tuesday. On Wednesday the FED raised rates for the first time in a year and the market pulled back to SPX 2248. Then a rally on Thursday to SPX 2272 was followed by a smaller pullback into a Friday 2258 close. For the week the SPX/DOW were mixed, and the NDX/NAZ were mixed. Economics reports were plentiful and ended the week slightly positive. On the downtick: export/import prices, industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts, build permits, plus the treasury budget increased. On the uptick: retail sales, the CPI/PPI, NY/Philly FED, the NAHB, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims declined. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by Q3 GDP, leading indicators and the PCE index. Best to your pre-holiday week!

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 17, 2016

Stock Market Flirts With Dow 20k New All Time High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Dow flirted with 20k this week, hitting a high of 19,966, literally within a few points of claiming the historic 20k level along its relentless bull market path. If one looks back to not just the start of 2016, but, well right up until AFTER the US polls closed on November 8th and beyond then its not just a case of Dow 20k could never happen but that the Dow 'should' by now be trading at well BELOW 15k. Whilst a few of the perma crowd had completely flipped imagining the Dow could trade down to as low as 6k! I suppose that's where the Dow needs to trade for some guys and gals just to BREAKEVEN after year after year of beartish rhetoric.

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Stock-Markets

Saturday, December 17, 2016

Financial Markets Award Trump Nobel Prize in Economics / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2016

By: David_Galland

Dear Parader,

As today we are headed north to spend Christmas with the family, Jake Weber, the invaluable senior researcher of our premium Compelling Investments Quantified (CIQ) service has kindly offered to fill in for this edition.

In his article, he delves into the economic and political challenges President Trump is facing and scans for any red flags flapping in the breeze.

On the topic of CIQ, we maintain a laser-like focus on finding great companies that sell below their intrinsic value—the only proven path to successful long-term investment.

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Currencies

Saturday, December 17, 2016

From Unloved & Unwanted to George Washington on Steroids: The U.S. Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar

By: EWI

From Unloved & Unwanted to George Washington on Steroids: The U.S. Dollar

Chart of the Day

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Stock-Markets

Friday, December 16, 2016

The Stock Market Level To Watch / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Dana Lyons (Tumblr.com) makes an interesting observation about a little-known index known as the Value Line Geometric Composite Index. In his article, he draws a straight line (red) at 500.00. and says. “This far and no further.”

He misses several points, which I would like to address. First, by drawing a horizontal bar, he misses the fact that the XVG was 27 points under it in 2000 and 23 points above it in 2015. By drawing a line that is peak-to-peak, you get a different picture. In fact, what comes to mind is an Orthodox Broadening Top (I added the lower trendline to complete the formation). This is a slight variation of what you see in the DJIA and SPX.

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Commodities

Friday, December 16, 2016

Radical Gold Under Investment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold was again blasted to new post-election lows this week, further trashing contrarian sentiment.  The Fed proved more hawkish than expected in its rate-hike-trajectory forecast, unleashing heavy selling in gold futures.  This catapulted gold bearishness back up to extremes not seen in a year.  Investors are once again convinced gold is doomed, and thus radically underinvested.  That’s actually super-bullish for gold.

It certainly wasn’t the Fed’s second rate hike in 10.5 years this week that hammered gold.  Actually that was universally expected.  Federal-funds-futures traders had assigned it an average 96% probability in the two weeks leading up to that rate hike.  If the Fed had simply raised its federal-funds rate by 25 basis points to a 0.50%-to-0.75% range, gold-futures speculators would’ve likely yawned.  They knew it was coming.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, December 16, 2016

Trump Rally and Irrelevant Dow Theory; What’s Next Stock Market Crash / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Sol_Palha

Uncertainty and mystery are energies of life. Don't let them scare you unduly, for they keep boredom at bay and spark creativity. R. I. Fitzhenry

In September we penned a second article in the Alternative Dow theory series, titled “Dow theory no longer relevant-Better Alternative exists where we stated that the Dow theory as it stood was no longer relevant.  Here is a brief excerpt from that article.

The transports topped out in November of 2014, and according to the Dow theory this is a big negative;  the Dow industrials should have followed suit. Instead, the Dow soared higher paying no heed to this theory proving to a large degree that this theory has lost its value. After all, it is a theory and the definition of a theory is “a supposition or a system of ideas intended to explain something, especially one based on general principles independent of the thing to be explained.”

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Commodities

Friday, December 16, 2016

Gold & Miners Bottoming Signs / Commodities / Stock Markets 2016

By: Gary_Savage

A couple of months from now are traders going to look back and wonder how they could have ignored the bottoming signs?

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Stock-Markets

Friday, December 16, 2016

Will Stock Market VIX Spike Today? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Good Morning!

The SPX Premarket is up, as would be expected for the close of index options at today’s open. Volatility may spike at the open as options traders settle their trades. What happens after the institutions leave the scene?

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 16, 2016

Trump Making Deficits and Public Debt Great Again / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Trump’s economic agenda consists of foreign policy, fiscal policy and regulatory policy. We have already commented a bit about Trump’s imprint on geopolitics and uncertainty in the context of the gold market. Now, let’s focus on the domestic policies.

First, Trump wants to reduce regulations hampering business. During the campaign he called for a moratorium on new financial regulations and for a 70 percent reduction in regulations. Importantly, in his 100-day action plan, the president-elect proposed that for every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be eliminated. Deregulation should stimulate economic growth and the stock market, which is not good for the yellow metal.

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Currencies

Friday, December 16, 2016

The War on Cash Rages On in India and Venezuela / Currencies / War on Cash

By: Jeff_Berwick

Imagine you roll out of bed tomorrow to find out that US $100 and $50 bills were outlawed and deemed worthless?  Hard as it is to believe, this is now taking place in both Venezuela and India.

It’s a war on cash. And it’s coming soon to your doorstep.

This past Sunday, President Maduro, the tyrannical leader of the socialist paradise of Venezuela gave a three day warning that he was eliminating his country’s 100 bolivar bank note.

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Commodities

Friday, December 16, 2016

Goldman Sachs is Talking Nonsense Again: Shale will not affect Global Oil Supply until Price hits $85 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_Butter

Latest headline: “Goldman Sachs Warns the Saudis: ‘’U.S. Shale Will Respond’’”

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Goldman-Sachs-Warns-The-Saudis-US-Shale-Will-Respond.html

Reminds me of when we all used to sing-along the company song ”House Prices Always go up”; and why not? If you could get the suckers to buy that idea, selling them AAA-rated (toxic) collateralized debt obligations concocted by Goldman Sachs, was a synch. Ah...Goldman Sachs...the Divine God’s Workers; now they are experts on shale oil...what next...tropical fish? So now they are telling their customers “shale oil is a buy”, that means presumably, they are long and they are scrambling to unload their positions?

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Stock-Markets

Friday, December 16, 2016

The Fed is BEGGING China to Crash the Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Crash

By: Graham_Summers

What is Janet Yellen thinking?

As the Fed wound down its QE program in 2014, the $USD hit liftoff. It has since hovered in the mid- to upper-‘90s.

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Stock-Markets

Friday, December 16, 2016

How Trump Could Blow Up The Entire Stocks Bull Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: John_Mauldin

At first glance, strictly from the point of view of the short-term impact they will have on the markets, what's not to like about the Trump/Ryan/Republican tax proposals?

Trump is proposing a top corporate tax rate of 15% , and the Ryan plan essentially calls for 20%. The proposed corporate tax reduction will really have a far greater impact than any of the proposed personal income tax cuts.

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Commodities

Thursday, December 15, 2016

Seasonality Favors Gold, Silver and Junior Mining Stocks Going Into Year End / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017

By: Jeb_Handwerger

Summary
Gold and silver could once again be ready to rally possibly starting in days or in the beginning of 2017.

Precious Metals usually bottom at year end then have massive rallies in the New Year.

Remember the lower it goes the higher it runs and the more gains made in the following year.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, December 15, 2016

Stock Market Sell Signals Being Generated / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

SPX has exceeded the trendline, as anticipated. It may find max resistance at or near 2266.00, the 61.8% Fib retracement.

The next decline may fall between 60 and 100 points, challenging the Wave [iv] low or possibly the 50-day Moving Average. If so, the decline may slip into high gear.

This may be an ideal aggressive short entry.

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Stock-Markets

Thursday, December 15, 2016

SPX to Mop up Wave 2 Retracement / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

The SPX Premarket is lower, but hasn’t broken yesterday’s low as I write. That leaves the possibility of a second go at the trendline at the open.

ZeroHedge reports, “This morning the world awakes to a landscape in which markets are frantically rushing to catch up to a suddenly hawkish Fed which not only hiked for the second time in a decade but, as per yesterday's Fed statement and Yellen press conference, realized it has been behind the curve all along, and the result has been a spike in the dollar across virtually all currency pairs with the USDJPY surging above 118.40, coupled with a jump in bond yields around the globe as bond (the US 10 Year is trading at 2.64%, the highest since September 2014) as traders dump any hint of duration.”

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Commodities

Thursday, December 15, 2016

Fed Raised Rates 0.25% – Rising Interest Rates Positive For Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.25% as expected yesterday leading to gold falling to lows last seen in February 2016 and the dollar rising to its highest level against the euro in 14 years.

Gold actually settled higher at $1,163.70 for the day yesterday. However gold futures slid to $1,156.70 an ounce in electronic trading on the rate decision at 1400 EST and soon gold was pushed down 1.3% to 10 month lows after the decision in less liquid after hour markets.

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Thursday, December 15, 2016

Stock Market New Downtrend Or Just Quick Downward Correction Before Another Leg Up? / / Stock Markets 2016

By: Paul_Rejczak

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,330, and profit target at 2,150, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook remains bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

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