Thursday, July 21, 2016
Gold Price Time For A Bounce, But Probably Not A Bottom Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Gary_Savage
Sentiment got a little too bearish and price is bouncing off the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Ideally though I’d like to see one more lower low next week to break the cycle uptrend line before trying to call a bottom.
I’d like to see a bit more bearish sentiment and some panic selling. DCL’s should create fear and cause traders to think price is rolling over. That usually requires a trend line break to get technical traders on the wrong side of the market before price resumes the uptrend.
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Thursday, July 21, 2016
S&P 500 At New All-Time High - Will It Continue Higher? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is now neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
Thursday, July 21, 2016
Did Oil Kill The Dinosaurs? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
What killed the dinosaurs? It's a question as old as – well the dinosaurs themselves, and one that everyone from school children to scientists have been asking for decades. Movies like Jurassic Park and the Land Before Time only heighten that sense of wonder and raise the stakes behind that question. Now according to a new scientific study, it seems that black gold may have been the source of the dinos' demise.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 21, 2016
US Dollar's Rise Spells the End of Commodities' Run / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Donald_W_Dony
A steady stream of strengthening fundamentals are driving the U.S. dollar higher. Healthier data from jobs, consumer spending and housing have put a tailwind on the greenback.
Moreover, America's economy is outperforming the weaker economies aboard. And this is setting a backdrop for improved prospects for another rate hike in the months ahead.
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Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Forex: "The Markets Are Getting Exciting!" / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: EWI
Our Senior Currency Strategist explains why
Jim Martens, the editor of our Currency Pro Service, gives you a preview of what's going on in the FX world post-Brexit.
Watch this new interview to learn which markets Jim's keeping his eye on.
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Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Status Quo... Stock Market Bulls In Complete Control... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Jack_Steiman
A chart was shown today between gap earnings and the movement of the S&P 500 500. The last time the gap was this disconnected was in 2007, the year before the big market crash. Will history repeat itself? Hard to say back in 2007/2009 we didn't have this type of fed protection against any sustainable market downside action. The fed is making sure things stay positive for the markets, so as to keep the economy moving upward, but it is interesting to note how badly the disconnect has gotten. 2007 disconnect is the answer so let's hope that it doesn't repeat itself for 2017. When you see this type of disconnect, it's also a warning about the human emotion of froth and mania. The bulls are starting to ramp up in a very big way, and we're seeing that in the bull/bears spread, which is now back over 30% (31.1%) for the first time in a very, very long time.
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Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Silver Price Ignition or Money Reasserting: When Silver Investment Demand Merges with Industrial Demand / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
A long time reader and forum member posted the following with a question regarding silver industrial demand:
“The question that begs an answer, is how will this ultimately effect the monetary value of Silver and does that foretell a change in investment strategies?” (Full comment below).
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Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Fracking Bombs In Your Neighborhood / Politics / Fracking
By: Walter_Brasch
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
SPX Meets Another Possible Resistance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
I have put a second upper trendline on the Orthodox Broadening Top to show how trendlines often act as both support and resistance. In this case, the new trendline appears to be resisting the rally at or near 2165.00. Whether SPX breaks through or not is in question today.
The rally may be complete here, so that is another reason for my report. You may recall that I had suggested that the rally may have hit its intended target at 2157.63, the first time it hit the upper trendline. Since then, the SPX has gone sideways more than higher.
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Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Gold Daily Cycle Low Still Several Days Away / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016
By: Gary_Savage
Some analysts were expecting gold to form an early Daily Cycle Low. I’ve been warning that gold needs to break the cycle trend line before the DCL can bottom and to beware of a fake out. It turns out I was correct to be patient. I doubt gold will form the DCL until right before, or on the FOMC statement next week. More patience.
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Wednesday, July 20, 2016
China Economic Troubles - Is Kyle Bass Finally Getting His Revenge? / Economics / China Economy
By: Clif_Droke
One of America's most prominent hedge fund managers is betting the farm that China's economic troubles are far from over. His bet centers around the U.S. dollar and by extension several Asian currencies. What happens to the dollar from here will determine whether this man's epic trading positions pays off, and China suffers a major setback, and whether his worst case scenario for the global economic outlook is merely a mirage. If he's right, the outcome of his bet will also affect the commodities market and perhaps even the equities market.
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Forex Trading: Investors Await Inside Bar Breakout for Clear Direction in USD/JPY / Currencies / Japanese Yen
By: Richard_Cox
The US Dollar (USD) extended upside movement against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, increasing the price of USD/JPY to more than 105.00 as bulls gain strength. The technical bias however remains bearish because of a Lower Low in the recent downside move. The pair has formed a great inside bar trade setup after the emergence of a giant candle on 24th June amid Brexit vote. A breakout through the aforementioned candle will provide clear direction for the pair.
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Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Why Derivatives Are So Dangerous to the Financial System - Video / Stock-Markets / Derivatives
By: Mario_Innecco
I'd like to talk about derivatives this evening
there's a lot of talk about derivatives and a lot of people have questions about
the rivers so here we go basically you know derivative is a financial instrument almost like an
insurance on an underlying acid and the modern-day derivatives market really
sprung up in nineteenth-century us in the Midwest especially chicago where you
know people came myou know to sell the grains the cattle and the buyers also came to buy the
grains in the cattle and for example a farmer who grew corn he wanted to lock in a price
you know in the future because he thought the price of corn Michael down
and he needed to know how much money he was going to get he would you know sell
a future in corn and the the buyer of the corn
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
TNX - A little Late But Still Expected / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Ed_Carlson
The high forecast by the Hybrid Lindsay model for early last week was delayed for three days by option expiration. Even if the high is seen today or tomorrow, that would still be within the margin of error for the model. The new high in the Dow probably means that a new Basic Advance began last February but we’ll wait and see what happens during the upcoming pullback before making that “official”.
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Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Why Lithium Will See Another Price Spike This Fall / Commodities / Lithium
By: OilPrice_Com
So far, lithium has been the hottest metal of 2016, beating out gold, with exponential demand expected over the coming years. Although the price trajectory of the metal has been subdued in recent months, the fundamentals behind the long-term trajectory suggest strong potential for long-term growth. Price doubling from 2014/2015 was first seen in China and is now being felt worldwide, with lithium hydroxide prices from $16-20 and carbonate prices from $12-14 thousand USD per ton. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Bitcoin in Asymmetric Position / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Paul_Rejczak
In short: no speculative positions.
The recent halving of Bitcoin rewards has proved to be a sort of no-volatility event. In an article on CoinDesk, we read:
One of the primary expectations leading up to halving was that the price would drop due to an expected rumor-and-event cycle, whereby traders would accumulate the asset, riding the excitement up until the actual halving took place, at which point they would exit positions.
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Tuesday, July 19, 2016
Deleveraging in Motion - Believe It or Not, Our Money Velocity Sucks! / Economics / Deflation
By: Harry_Dent
Dr. Lacy Hunt has been featured more than any outside speaker at our IES conferences. Why? Because he’s the only classical economist I fully admire and he is a successful bond investment manager in the real world that understands the trend towards deflation, despite unprecedented money-printing.I love the gold bugs for being realistic and honest about the debt and financial asset bubble we’re in, especially when most mainstream economists and analysts are blind to it.
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Tuesday, July 19, 2016
The Peak Oil Paradox Revisited / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Raul_I_Meijer
It’s been a while since we posted an article by our friend Euan Mearns, who was active at The Oil Drum at the same time Nicole and I were. Is it really 11 years ago that started, and almost 9 since we left? You know the drill: we ‘departed’ because they didn’t want us to cover finance, which we said was the more immediate crisis, yada yada. Euan stayed on for longer, and the once unequalled Oil Drum is no more.
On one of our long tours, which were based around Nicole’s brilliant public speaking engagements, we went to see Euan in Scotland, he teaches at Aberdeen University. I think it was 2011?! An honor. Anyway, always a friend.
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Tuesday, July 19, 2016
Waiting on the Euro to Bottom / Currencies / Euro
By: Gary_Savage
I’m just waiting for the euro to confirm a final intermediate cycle bottom. It’s now very late in the timing band at 33 weeks. So the bottom could occur at any time. My best guess is the euro will bottom and the dollar will top on, or the day before, the FOMC meeting next week.
The intermediate trend line has been broken. This needs to happen during cycle lows to get technical traders on the wrong side of the market. We are waiting for the trend line to break in gold.
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Tuesday, July 19, 2016
SPX Challenges the Upper Trendline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX appears to have made its high on Friday at 2169.05, 17.2 days from its June 27 low. This morning, the Premarket is challenging the upper trendline of the Orthodox Broadening Top at 2160.00. Once a reversal beneath the trendline is evident, I will comment on what may be expected next.
ZeroHedge reports, “After a head-scratching S&P500 rally - which not even Goldman has been able to justify - pushed stocks to new all time highs with seemingly daily record highs regardless of fundamentals or geopolitical troubles, overnight US equity futures dipped modestly, tracking weak European stocks as demand for safe haven assets including U.S. Treasuries and gold rises. Asian stocks outside Japan fall. Crude oil trades near $45 a barrel. “
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