Thursday, May 30, 2019
Gold Price Trend Forecast 2019 - Current State / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Gold Price began 2019 with a continuation of it's strong December 2018 rally towards resistance at $1300 that was soon overcome propelling the Gold price higher to next resistance at $1350 by Mid February. Since when entered into a shallow downtrend all the way to the recent low of $1269. Which is particularly disappointing given that many Gold bugs had pinned hopes on safe haven demand in the aftermath of Trump trade war chaos tumbling stock markets since the start of May, not to mention a aircraft carrier group steaming towards the Persian Gulf, none of which is being reflected in the Gold price to date.
Thursday, May 30, 2019
This Is Why US Monetary Policy Is So Ineffective / Interest-Rates / Economic Theory
By: John_Mauldin
Back in the 1980s and 1990s, many people thought excessive government spending and the resulting debt would bring inflation or even hyperinflation.
We wanted a hawkish Federal Reserve or, better yet, a gold standard to prevent it. Reality turned out differently.
Federal debt rose steadily, inflation didn’t. Here’s a chart of the on-budget public debt since 1970:
Thursday, May 30, 2019
When (Not If) Silver Has a "Bitcoin Moment" / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
In mid-May 2019 the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), was trading around $5,600. At $4,000, a prominent technician predicted it was gearing up for a run to $6,500. Yet when it reached $5,700, he recommended selling because of a technical "non-confirmation."
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Thursday, May 30, 2019
Gold, Silver, Oil, Cryptos - Audio Analysis / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: Chris_Vermeulen
UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY: First, we typically see stocks sell-off and as the old saying goes, “Sell in May and Go Away!” which is what has been happening.
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Thursday, May 30, 2019
The Single Most Powerful Insight that Will Help You Find the Next Amazon, Google, or Netflix / Companies / Investing 2019
By: Stephen_McBride
If you haven’t read me before, let me briefly introduce myself to give you a little context.
I’m Stephen McBride, Chief Analyst at RiskHedge. My job is to find under-the-radar disruptor stocks that are set to dominate the world in the next 10 years… and make investors rich in the process.
Think of buying Amazon a decade ago…
Wednesday, May 29, 2019
Are We Looking at a Dead Cat Bounce in Crude Oil Price? / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Oil bulls look to have arrested the slide as there hasn’t been a down day since Thursday. One could easily expect a more vigorous rebound, however. The nearby resistances remain and black gold has hardly gone anywhere today so far. After the long weekend, will the bulls muster more strength, or does the technical picture favor another trip south in the coming days? The answer isn’t as easy as might be inferred from the Alert’s title...
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Wednesday, May 29, 2019
Extended Gold Mega Base Could Prompt An Incredible Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Here we go again.. We’ve been nailing the Precious Metals moves for many months and we’ve heard from many of our followers and members about our research. Some of you might remember our November 24, 2018 prediction that Gold would rally above $1300, then stall and set up a “Momentum Base pattern near April 21~24, 2019″ . We find it incredible that we can make a prediction about Gold nearly 6+ months ahead of the move using our proprietary predictive modeling tools and then sit back and wait for it to happen just as we predicted.
On March 28, 2019, we posted this research article regarding the “Final Buying Opportunity for Gold”. Our researchers believe this current double-bottom setup is the last time you’ll see Gold prices below $1300 for quite some time in the future. Again, we were warning our followers that the opportunity to position their gold trades was setting up and this low price setup may be the last time we see Gold near these lows.
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Wednesday, May 29, 2019
US is Winning Trade War with China...for Now / Economics / China US Conflict
By: Richard_Mills
The ongoing battle between the United States and China for economic supremacy isn’t only being fought in the gilded ballrooms of Washington, as trade negotiators from either side parry over automobile parts content, intellectual property rights, government subsidies and the like.
Casualties and victories are also borne out over the decks of hulking freighters that carry the commodities which make up the nuts and bolts of international trade.
Indeed, shipping statistics are often sought by economics and traders trying to predict the health of a country’s economy or the world economy. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is one such leading indicator. Another is the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). PMIs are a monthly survey of supply chain managers across 19 industries. An economy with a PMI of over 50 is considered to be growing; under 50 means an economy is treading water or possibly drowning.
This article is concerned with the Baltic Dry Index and other shipping statistics - such as cargo volumes through West Coast ports - that we can use to determine who, at this stage, China or the US, is winning the trade war.
The overall conclusion we, at Ahead of the Herd, came up with, is that the United States is winning, in terms of raw economic data, but at a cost to both economies of roughly $165 billion in two-way trade. The losers also include US consumers who are paying more for imported goods, and companies in both countries that can’t afford 25% tariffs for an extended period of time.
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Wednesday, May 29, 2019
Can Markets Still Drop Sharply…or Is the Fed Invincible? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2019
By: MoneyMetals
The financial markets feel as if they are totally controlled. Zerohedge recently made an observation that pretty well sums up the situation, in the context of trade: The quickest way to settle the trade war is for stock markets to drop significantly. Much lower prices will put pressure on President Trump to end the standoff.
The problem is neither the president nor the Fed have the stomach for lower prices. Investors are certain they will act quickly to prevent any major bear market.
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Wednesday, May 29, 2019
This 1.1$-Trillion Industry Will End Up Like Retail… Which Is a Huge Investment Opportunity / Companies / Banking Stocks
By: Stephen_McBride
Banks have grown very, very rich in the last 30 years—thanks to their privileged monopoly position.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM), America’s largest bank, has grown profits by 2,000%+ in the last 30 years.
Bank of America (BAC), the second-largest American bank, has seen its profits surge 4,700%.
JP Morgan Chase and Bank of America are the 10th- and 13th-biggest public companies not just in the US, but on earth.
And as we all know, bankers enjoy some of the biggest salaries around. In 2017, the top five US bank CEOs earned a combined $100 million.
But quietly, banks’ grip on money is slipping away...
Wednesday, May 29, 2019
Eurosceptics Gained Seats in the EU. Will Gold Shine Now? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
More than 200 million people in 28 nations voted in the second-largest democratic elections in the world. What interesting information can we glean from their vote – which way the wind blows now? Crucially, how does it reflect on gold?
Populists and Greens Gain Seats in the EU Parliament
People across the European Union have voted for in the European Parliament elections. Turnout was 50.5 percent, the highest level in 20 years. Last time, it stood just 42.6 percent. However, despite high turnout – which usually supports mainstream, big parties – the two biggest voting blocs have lost their majority in the European Parliament. The centre-right European People’s Party and the centre-left Socialists and Democrats will remain the two largest blocs, but they lost 74 seats. They had 403 of the 751 seats in the EU parliament, now they will have just 329 seats.
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Wednesday, May 29, 2019
Stocks Break Downward In Afternoon Trading / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The afternoon price breakdown in the YM (Down Futures) continues to confirm our recent analysis. We authored a three-part research post near mid-May discussing how the global tensions would likely play out in the global stock markets. We also authored another, more recent, research post about how the US stock markets would likely find weakness as news is digested after the US Memorial Day holiday weekend. If we go far enough back in our research, we can find a very interesting research post from March 31, 2019, where our research team suggested July 2019 would be a key date for a potential market top formation.
Today, we are going to focus on the downside price rotation that is happening in the YM (Dow Futures) and how it points to an extended sideways Pennant/Flag price formation over the next few weeks before a breakdown move may cause havoc in the markets.
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Tuesday, May 28, 2019
What Will Trump’s Immigration Fight Cost You? / Economics / Immigration
By: Rodney_Johnson
Just like investors tend to buy high and sell low, politicians tend to react to most major issues (ahem… immigration) by doing the wrong thing at the right time.It’s no secret that almost all developed countries, and China in the emerging world, are slowing in workforce and demographic growth – many outright declining. Rodney talked about this just last Thursday. Five of the six smaller ones (which include Australia and New Zealand) that aren’t have one thing in common: strong and high-quality immigration.
You would think, with clearly predictable further slowing in demographic trends, that the developed countries would be competing for the best global immigrants. But most are restricting or fighting against it just as we need them the most. The U.S. fought against immigration going into the Great Depression. It’s doing it again now…
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Tuesday, May 28, 2019
Avoiding Hype-Burn Amidst IPO Stock Mania / ConsumerWatch / IPOs
By: Harry_Dent
Given that we’re in the greatest global bubble in history, almost everything is overvalued. We’re expecting central banks to keep printing money, interest rates to stay near zero, growth to continue “into a plateau of prosperity.” Just like 1929.Dare us to say: it’s hard to find good value investments out there.
Look at this chart of accelerating IPOs at higher and higher prices, most often from companies that have no or little profits. People are buying into the bubble at prices that companies could not possibly fulfill even in many years, if ever. They don’t call these companies “unicorns” for nothing.
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Tuesday, May 28, 2019
Stock Market Sell In May and Go Away / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2019
By: Plunger
In this report we will look at the state of the stock market and update the condition of a potential bottom in the gold space.
Sell in May and Go Away
You have all heard this Wall Street ditty before and it is now upon us at this moment. Despite this old market rule being an established truism, few actually use it to make money. Instead the daily market action draws investors back into the market typically in search of that illusory “Summer Rally”. Instead they typically find themselves in the stock market’s “Summer Doldrums”. I can’t quote the exact statistics, however if one was to simply sell in May and stay out of the market until the typical October weakness, then go back in whole hog his returns would greatly outpace the returns of the market itself. So the sell in May phenomenon is real. Let’s try to use it to our advantage.
Time to Start Sharpening our Knives
This means it’s time to begin shorting the market… selectively that is. I have shown in the past that shorting is most profitable if one holds off until the second half of a bear market. That’s because the market starts providing decent follow through on the downside. We are not there yet since it’s still early on in phase I of the bear market, however selective shorts can be taken when a set-up presents itself. Later on in this report I will present a few short sale set-ups.
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Tuesday, May 28, 2019
Getting Your Money Out For Retirement / Personal_Finance / Pensions & Retirement
By: Rodney_Johnson
We’re in the thick of the real estate game now. Our home is on the market, which means it’s much cleaner, and more spare, than usual. When we have showings, we vacate the premises, and of course need to take the dog. That’s more of a challenge than we’d thought, but she’s gotten used to sitting with us in the car at the nearby Sonic, and the crew on roller skates thinks she’s adorable. I hope they wash their hands after petting her.All of this comes out of our talks about where, and what kind of life, we should live. The house is fabulous, but big, and on open water in a flood prone area. With taxes and flood insurance moving higher, the cost of carry is on a one-way train uphill. In our early 50s, this looks like a good time to sell while there are still buyers for this sort of property.
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Tuesday, May 28, 2019
Don’t Check Your Investments P&L More Often than Once a Month / InvestorEducation / Learning to Invest
By: Jared_Dillian
When you check your brokerage statement, how does it make you feel?
If it’s up since the last time you looked, it probably feels pretty good.
If it’s down, it makes you feel bad.
People don’t like to feel bad. So if the market has been going down for a while and they think they’re losing money, they’ll stop checking it.
If the market has been going up for a while, they’ll check it every day. In fact, most people will check it multiple times a day.
For all the spreadsheet jockeys out there, you know that if you press the “F9” key then it recalculates the spreadsheet.
Tuesday, May 28, 2019
This 1 Investment strategy could change your future - eBook inside / Stock-Markets / Investing 2019
By: Submissions
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Tuesday, May 28, 2019
Top 10 AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend (6-10) / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is my latest analysis in my machine intelligence investing mega-trend series that warns to prepare for EVERYTHING to change EXPONENTIALLY when average machine intelligence surpasses average human intelligence following which it will be off to the races. When the pace of change will leave everything that has happened before far behind. And in my opinion that key date will occur sometime during 2022, i.e. in less than 4 years time! Which means if you have not already got your act together by getting onboard this investing gravy train then you really need to take action or kick yourself many years down the road, when you will be asking yourself why I did not invest in those AI stocks before they went stratospheric!
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Tuesday, May 28, 2019
FACEBOOK - FB - Investing in Artificial Intelligence Stocks / Companies / AI
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Where to invest to profit from the exponential machine intelligence mega-trend. I have ranked these stocks in in terms of risk vs reward and volatility. Do remember that when investing in the stock market that your capital is at risk. There are NO SURE BETS!
If you've not already done so then watch my following video from November 2016 which illustrates why everything will start to change exponentially by 2022.
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