Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Commodities

Monday, April 08, 2024

Gold Is Rallying Again, But Silver Could Get REALLY Interesting / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: MoneyMetals

Another week, another record high for gold.

On Wednesday, the monetary metal surged above $2,300 per ounce. It took a bit of a breather Thursday ahead of today’s key employment report but it rallied again on Friday. 

Turning to silver, it made a significant breakout of its own this week. The white metal shot up above the $27 level to a fresh 2-year high and rallied to over $27.50 on Friday

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Economics

Monday, April 08, 2024

Media Elite Belittle Inflation Struggles of Ordinary Americans / Economics / Inflation

By: MoneyMetals

A top writer for the Wall Street Journal thinks Americans who complain about the economy just aren't aware of how good things are.

Chief Economics Commentator Greg Ip wrote a gaslighting article last week with the headline, "What's Wrong With the Economy? It's You, Not the Data."

The article begins with the claim that Americans just don't have the facts on inflation.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, April 08, 2024

Profit from the Roaring AI 2020's Tech Stocks Economic Boom / Stock-Markets / AI

By: Nadeem_Walayat

I have been iterating since June 2020, the message one should be receiving is that I expect this bull market to run for many more years, that I expected to target a return of X6 over some 7 years on where AI tech stocks stood June 2020, whilst my best guess 3.5 years ago was that we could see a major top during 2027, as long as run away valuations moderated from time to time delivering buying opps as they did during 2022 then I don't see why this should not still remain the big picture, thus the bull market that began March 2009 could continue to fulfill my original expectations for a 18 year bull market, where even the bear market that follows it will prove temporary as the bull market once more resumes during the 2030's.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, April 07, 2024

Stock Market Election Year Five Nights at Freddy's / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dear Reader

Remember the start of the 2024? That opening dip in the S&P that had the likes of the holy church of the Almanach warning of the Trifecta of failures starting with the Santa Rally, then the first 5 days, with eyes next on the January baromoter, harbingers for a bad 2024 for stocks!

This was my Five Nights at Freddy's response to the headless chickens that was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, this is your last chance to lock it in now at $5 before it soon rises to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Commodities

Sunday, April 07, 2024

It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet) / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Gary_Tanashian

On the occasion of another standout payrolls report, we note that the macro is indeed changing beneath the surface

Another payrolls report, another beat of expectations. Here is the breakdown of the details as posted earlier. However, let’s pluck one graphic from that post and illustrate a phenomenon I’ve been watching unfold for several months in a row; that of unabated government hiring this election year.

The USS Good Ship Lollipop sails along, supported by its vast services economy and construction (a product of the services industries, not a productive industry itself, unlike for example, manufacturing) as well as a continued trend of brisk government hiring this election year. I am not going to play politics (I am dispirited by both major parties) but as usual, I am going to lay out facts so that we can properly manage the situation from an investment perspective.

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Companies

Sunday, April 07, 2024

AI Revolution and NVDA: Why Tough Going May Be Ahead / Companies / Nvidia

By: EWI

"These things could get more intelligent than us"

The topic with all the buzz these days is Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its future.

The potential benefits include automating repetitive tasks, enhancing productivity, data analysis, assisting in medical applications -- and more.

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Housing-Market

Sunday, April 07, 2024

Hidden cost of US homeownership just saw its biggest spike in 5 years / Housing-Market / US Housing

By: Submissions

As millions of Americans lose sleep over record mortgage costs, many overlook one of the biggest expenses they’ll incur as homeowners: property tax.

According to real estate data analytics firm ATTOM, property taxes jumped by 6.9% or more than $4,000 in 2023—the largest annual increase in five years. It's also double the gain from a year earlier.

“Property taxes took an unusually high turn upward last year, pushing effective rates up, while huge gaps in average tax bills between different parts of [the] country remained in place,” said Rob Barber, ATTOM’s chief executive.

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Commodities

Sunday, April 07, 2024

What Happens To Gold Price If The Fed Doesn’t Cut Rates? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2024

By: Kelsey_Williams

GOLD PRICE IF THE FED DOESN’T CUT

With the increasing gold price of late comes the assumption that the expected cut in interest rates will open a torrent of cheap money that will bring the U.S. dollar down with a thud.  But, what would happen to the gold price if the Fed doesn’t cut interest rates?

What seemed like a universally expected event may not be as likely as some have assumed. In fact, the Fed has a history that includes examples of pivots and re-pivots; or, ignoring the presumed pivot and staying the course.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, April 07, 2024

The Fed is becoming increasingly divided on interest rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Submissions

Powell reaffirms multiple rate cuts are on the table, but his peers thinks we’ll be lucky to get one this year

The Fed's officials can’t seem to get their stories straight.

On April 3, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed his expectations for multiple rate cuts this year, shrugging off the recent uptick in inflation.

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Currencies

Sunday, April 07, 2024

The Evils of Paper Money Have no End / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: MoneyMetals

Many prominent American founders warned us about paper money.

Thomas Paine may have summed it up best:

“The evils of paper money have no end.”

In an 1814 letter to Thomas Cooper, Thomas Jefferson was prophetic.

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Stock-Markets

Wednesday, April 03, 2024

Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

How are you enjoying AI tech stocks gravy train bull market of 2024?

This is my latest instalment of my in-depth analysis and and concluding S&P detailed trend forecast for 2024 - S&P Stock Market Analysis, Detailed Trend Forecast Jan to Dec 2024 that was first been made available to patrons who support my work.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 02, 2024

Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

During 2023 it seemed like everyone woke up to the importance of the US presidential election cycle.

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Stock-Markets

Tuesday, April 02, 2024

Dow Stock Market Annual Percent Change Analysis 2024 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Dow Annual Percent Change

The 2022 Dow Annual Percent Change chart which accurately warned to expect the Dow to drop to 28k during 2022 in 2021 and that the Dow was cheap October 2022.

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Currencies

Sunday, March 31, 2024

Bitcoin S&P Pattern / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Here's a log chart of the Bitcoin price and S&P where I broken the bitcoin trend down into main bull and bear markets, which so far have been followed by minor bull and bear markets.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 31, 2024

S&P Stock Market Correlating Seasonal Swings / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Correlating Seasonal Swings

Not satisfied with just seasonal swings I've continued to evolve my near term seasonal swings analysis by comparing the year on year change of the past 5 years which resolves in the following recency bias pattern. Which is very similar to the above monthly seasonal analysis and only really differs to last years analysis in terms of the correction during May and June.

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Stock-Markets

Sunday, March 31, 2024

S&P SEASONAL ANALYSIS / Stock-Markets / Seasonal Trends

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, higher into late April, then correct from early May into late June followed by a brief rally into late July /. Early August before a deep correction into Mid October, resolving in a sharp reversal to end October higher, which would set the scene for a bull run into the end of the year.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 31, 2024

Here's a Dirty Little Secret: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Is Still Loose / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MoneyMetals

Everybody wants to know when the Federal Reserve is going to declare victory over price inflation and begin loosening monetary policy.

The real question is - when are they going to make monetary policy tight again?

Because despite all the worry about high interest rates, monetary policy remains relatively loose. 

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Companies

Sunday, March 31, 2024

Tandem Chairman Paul Pester on Fintech, AI, and the Future of Banking in the UK / Companies / Banking Stocks

By: Sumeet_Manhas

Since the emergence of the first online-only challenger banks and fintech startups in the early 2010s, the U.K. banking landscape has undergone a profound transformation, culminating in the ubiquity of mobile finance. One of the early architects of this shift, Paul Pester, is now the chairman of U.K. green digital bank Tandem, and he hopes to draw on decades of experience in digital banking to support new avenues for improving consumers’ retail banking experience and supporting the next wave of fintech startups.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 25, 2024

Stock Market Volatility (VIX) / Stock-Markets / Volatility

By: Nadeem_Walayat

One of the reasons why so many have missed the bull market boat during 2023 is because they focused on the likes of the VIX whilst starting in the rear view mirror at 2022 completely flummoxed as to why the stock market is not having a spike in the vix so they can buy. What they failed to understand is that volatility is LOWER during bull markets, so no the vix was unlikely to spike to levels they were all waiting for.

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Stock-Markets

Monday, March 25, 2024

Stock Market Investor Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2024

By: Nadeem_Walayat

TD Ameritrades retail investors sentiment chart illustrates this fact, retail investors have been SELLING since the July high, which followed fairly feeble accumulation, convinced by the cartoon network's mantra that a recession is coming.... Just look at the chart, there is NO FOMO! The S&P is on the verge of breaking to a new all time high and most investors are sat on the sidelines waiting for their fantasy S&P 3200 to materialise! This SHOWS you where you would also be if you had followed the herd during 2023! Another reminder - DO NOT PAY ANY ATTENTION TO MSM which is populated by clueless journalists and fund managers (sales people).

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