Tuesday, February 06, 2018
Gold Takes Center-stage in Dollar Scare / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Michael_J_Kosares
Trump-Mnuchin qualifiers in dollar statements tell all
“While it’s [a strong dollar] described as a desirable and intended thing, it might not be a choice. The size of dollar holdings of reserves (in dollar-denominated debt) and the dollar’s role as the dominant world currency are anachronisms and large relative to what one would want to hold to be balanced, so rebalancings should be expected over time, especially when U.S. dollar bonds look unattractive and trade tensions with dollar creditors intensify.” – Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Securities
Much is made of the direct inverse correlation between gold and the dollar, but acknowledging that relationship does not really get us anywhere. The bigger question is whether or not the dollar will continue to track lower as it has over the past 18 months or will it suddenly reverse course and head higher.
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Tuesday, February 06, 2018
Hostilities - Bitcoin, Stocks, America.... / Politics / US Politics
By: James_Quinn
I don’t like going to the movies. Too much hassle, too many commercials and previews, too expensive, and 90% of the movies are worthless drivel, SJW inspired crap, or government buoyed propaganda. Last weekend was my wife’s birthday and she wanted to see a movie. When she shockingly suggested a western, I reluctantly agreed. So my wife and one of my sons got in the car and headed to an old Franks theater in Montgomeryville that only charges $8.50. I had seen a brief review of Hostiles on-line and saw it got a decent rating on rotten tomatoes. I was looking forward to being mildly entertained.
The next two hours and fifteen minutes of this dark, somber, violent, morally ambiguous treatise about the old west cannot be described as enjoyable. But I did find it riveting and thought provoking. Christian Bale, as Captain Joseph Blocker, mournfully carries out his duties without a single smile crossing his bearded countenance for the entire movie. The tone, atmosphere and message of this film reminded me of my favorite western and subject of the final part of my five part series based on Clint Eastwood movies – Unforgiven. One of the soldiers in Hostiles even has dialogue almost matching Will Munny’s foreboding exchange at the end of Unforgiven:
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Tuesday, February 06, 2018
Land Rover Discovery Sport, What to Know Before Buying - 2 Month Owner Drivers Review / ConsumerWatch / Motoring
By: N_Walayat
This is my comprehensive review after owning and driving a Land Rover Discovery Sport for 2 months, of what to expect if your considering buying one as it does take a few weeks of real world driving before one is fully aware of the cars good and bad points, such as the pretty feeble plastic trim that tends to surround Discovery Sports, the rattling sound that many owners tend to experience again apparently from poor quality trim.
So whilst the Discovery Sport looks great on the driveway and generally also drives well, in many other respects my 11 year old Zafira was better i.e. the back two seats are seriously lacking in leg room, definitely not enough space for adults! And what's worse is that real world fuel economy performance will come nowhere near Land Rovers sales pitch of the DISCO doing 53.3 MPG. Then we have the fantasy of the first oil service change at 21,000 miles, when in reality the car will be requesting an oil change much sooner! So watch my 2 month drivers and owners review for what you need to beware of before you buy one. Where this HSE Black was bought from Hunters in Chester.
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Tuesday, February 06, 2018
Silver and Mining Stocks Fresh New 2018 Lows / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Silver was just breaking to new highs, gold stocks (HUI) were above the 205 level and gold was at levels not seen since August 2016. Gold and silver bulls were cheering. They are not cheering anymore. Even though the above was the case just several days ago, it was all invalidated, just like we expected it to be. Based on what happened on Friday, silver and mining stocks are at their new 2018 lows and their entire 2018 performance is a one huge bearish reversal. Where will precious metals in the following weeks?
Lower. Likely much lower.
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Monday, February 05, 2018
Gold Corrects, Bitcoin Markets Crash, Whilst Stocks Plunge / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Bitcoin's $20,000 bubble mania peak of Mid December that valued the crypto currency at $320 billion has long since been left in the dust as Bitcoin has crashed well below $10,000, wiping out $170 billion of the value of participants holdings. All whilst the crypto coin gamblers obsessed by all things block chain have largely remained in a state of denial, focused on bitcoin soaring to over $50,000 despite its real inverse trend trajectory as tends to happen at the end of market manias.
And so it has been the case since I published my opening Bitcoin forecast of the year over a month ago when the crypto was trading at USD 14,000, warning that the Bitcoin price was likely to continue crashing towards $5,000, a forecast that was met with denial from many in the bitcoin community.
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Monday, February 05, 2018
Global Synchronized US Bond Collapse / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
We have all heard, in ad nauseam fashion, Wall Street’s current favorite mantra touting a global synchronized economic recovery. For the record, global GDP growth for 2017 was 3.7%, according to the International Monetary Fund. And, although this is an improvement from recent years, you must take into account that in 2004 it was 4.4%, in 2005 it was 3.8%, in 2006 it was 4.3%, and in 2007 it was 4.2%. The Point being, it’s not as if the current rate of global growth has climbed to a level never before witnessed in history—it’s not even close.
However, the more salient phenomenon now underway—far more important than the rather pedestrian move higher in global GDP--is the globally synchronized bond collapse, which the Main Stream Financial Media is dismissing with alacrity. Yields are on the move higher around the world and the rate of change is now escalating.
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Monday, February 05, 2018
“Strong Dollar,” “Weak Dollar,” What About a Gold-Backed Dollar? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Antonius_Aquinas
The recent hullabaloo among President Trump’s top monetary officials about the Administration’s “dollar policy” is just the start of what will likely be the first of many contradictory pronoucements and reversals which will take place in the coming months/years as the world’s reserve currency continues to be compromised. So far, the Greenback has had its worst start since 1987, the year of a major stock market reset.
The brief firestorm was set off by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin who said in response to the dollar’s recent slide, “Obviously, a weaker dollar is good for us, it’s good because it has to do with trade and opportunities.”* Mnuchin backtracked a bit as international financial leaders criticized the apparent shift in policy while Administration officials sought to clarify the Secretary’s remarks. President Trump weighted in on the matter saying, “Ultimately, I want to see a strong dollar” and added that Mnuchin’s comments were “taken out of context.”
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Monday, February 05, 2018
Best Commodity Trading Opportunities to See Now / Commodities / Commodities Trading
By: EWI
Special 5-day event (free): "Best Commodity Opportunities to See Now"
Dear reader,
Volatility is picking up steam -- and it's more than just Bitcoin and U.S. stocks that deserve your attention.
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Monday, February 05, 2018
Friday's Stocks Sell-Off Sets The Tone For Weeks To Come / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Paul_Rejczak
The main U.S. stock market indexes lost 2.0-2.5% on Friday, breaking below their three-day-long consolidation as investors reacted to quarterly corporate earnings, economic data releases, among others. The S&P 500 index accelerated its short-term downtrend following breakout below the level of 2,800. It currently trades 3.9% below its January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The broad stock market retraced more than 50% of its month-long rally off the December 29th local low at 2,673.61. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was relatively weaker, as it lost 2.5% on Friday, and the technology Nasdaq Composite fell 2.0%.
Monday, February 05, 2018
Will the Great Unwind Sink Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
In the August 2017 edition of the Market Overview, we analyzed the hawkish turn among major central banks. We pointed out that “Europe has recently been among the most surprising positive economic regions in the world”, which should induce the ECB to taper its quantitative easing program in the fall, supporting both the EUR/USD exchange rate and the price of gold. This is exactly what happened. The dollar lost more than 3 percent in 2018 against the euro, while gold jumped above $1,350 (as of January 25). As we noted in the previous edition of the Market Overview, “the beginning of the year is usually a good period for the gold prices.”
Monday, February 05, 2018
Bitcoin Crypto Currencies Crash 2018, Are We Near the Bottom? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Bitcoin's $20,000 bubble mania peak of Mid December that valued the crypto currency at $320 billion has long since been left in the dust as Bitcoin has crashed well below $10,000, wiping out $170 billion of the value of participants holdings. All whilst the crypto coin gamblers obsessed by all things block chain have largely remained in a state of denial, focused on bitcoin soaring to over $50,000 despite its real inverse trend trajectory as tends to happen at the end of market manias.
And so it has been the case since I published my opening Bitcoin forecast of the year over a month ago when the crypto was trading at USD 14,000, warning that the Bitcoin price was likely to continue crashing towards $5,000, a forecast that was met with denial from many in the bitcoin community.
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Monday, February 05, 2018
Stock Market How Low? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend – The bull market is continuing with a top expected in the low 3000s.
Intermediate trend – Is this an intermediate-term top? Perhaps not yet!
Monday, February 05, 2018
Trading the Shadows - Oil, Dollar, Stocks, Gold Trend Analysis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2018
By: Submissions
B.R. HollisterI’ve spent over thirty years analyzing markets and have noticed an interesting correlation between the Wall St. Markets (stocks, interest rates) Gold (and the mining shares), the Dollar Index and Oil. In the charts below, I describe what I call “shadows” of the past and how they repeat certain patterns.
Right now I know that traders are concerned with rising interest rates, but at this point in the game I don’t think they matter too much, this is just a much needed 4-6% pull back in the stock market as we fall into the 20 week low. The problem with excessive over speculation should come home to roost especially as we come in to the latter half of the year. My read is that we may see a 20% bear market much like May-Oct 2011 or July-Oct 1998. Meanwhile, buying the dips should prove lucrative.
Monday, February 05, 2018
Did The Stock Market Top Last Week? I think Not / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Chris_Vermeulen
We’re certain that many of you are asking yourself this question after seeing the markets rotate to the downside so hard recently. If you had been reading our past analysis for the early portion of 2018, you would likely know the answer to this question. If not, this research article will assist in your understanding of the market’s rotation and what to expect over the next few weeks/months.
We called a market advance in early 2018 nearly three weeks before the end of 2017. We also called the current move, lower, at that same time. Recently, we’ve made calls regarding the US Dollar, metals markets, and natural gas that have played out exceptionally well for our members. Now, we’ll show you what to expect in the markets for the next few weeks.
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Monday, February 05, 2018
The Meaning of Economic Philosophy / Economics / Economic Theory
By: Submissions
Dr. Gero Jenner writes:In ‘The Open Society and its Enemies’, Karl Popper strongly defended the position that major interventions in the economy, especially when ideologically motivated, are usually disastrous and should therefore be avoided. Popper wrote his famous work towards the end of the thirties. On the one hand, he saw the devastating effects of textbook-based economies, where the working masses were tied into an economic strait-jacket by a Politburo, on the other hand, Popper was well aware of the dangers of that kind of capitalism, which tended to place the interests of a few monopolists above those of the general population. Against such aberrations, Popper propagated what he called ’social engineering‘, namely, a model of small steps, where every previous economic intervention is painstakingly scrutinized in view of its effects before any further action is embarked upon. Popper seemed to regard the economy in the same way as a highly complex machinery which a layman cannot tackle without causing the greatest damage.
Sunday, February 04, 2018
Where Have All The Stock Market Investors Gone? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: WMA
Given that most trading in capital markets today is momentum-based buying and selling, where much of the trading is a reaction to news and directed to ETFs that are being manipulated by computer algorithms, it’s a legitimate question to ask where have all the investors gone?
Is most everybody today just a buyer or a seller of prices? If so, the marketplace has gotten off track. Are people fed up with market intervention, are they too indifferent to market risk until they panic or are they simply not able or not caring to understand the assets they are buying?
Sunday, February 04, 2018
Dow Falls 666 Points As Cryptocurrencies Crash And Krugman Emerges From His Van / Currencies / BlockChain
By: Jeff_Berwick
On Friday, the Dow Jones fell 665.75 points. Or, if you round it, 666 points. Also known to many as the “mark of the beast”. It was also the sixth worst point drop in US stock market history.
This also happened on the 33rd day of the year. 33 is the most important number in Freemasonry.
This is noteworthy because it is the first serious drop in the US stock markets on a weekly basis in two years.
But are the numbers 666 and 33 just a coincidence?
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Sunday, February 04, 2018
Removing Fuel from a Stock Market Rally on Fire / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018
By: Doug_Wakefield
Friday, January 26, 2018; the Dow sets a record, adding almost 2,000 points in the first 4 weeks of the year.
Forget rising rates. Ignore what is taking place in Washington. Central Banks? Who are they? Wealth from the “perfect bull” only comes in two speeds, slow and fast.
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Sunday, February 04, 2018
10yr Yield Nears Target, ‘Inflation Trade’ Failing, Gold Sector Shaking Off Inflation Bugs / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Gary_Tanashian
Over and over again I’ve been making goofy headlines about the Amigos, the 3 macro riders who will reach (or abort) their respective destinations, at which point the macro is subject to change. The latest update was yesterday with a daily chart view.
Just look at them, the SPX vs. Gold Amigo, the 10yr & 30yr Yield Amigo and the Yield Curve Amigo. So happy-go-lucky while they ride. But #2, the one in the middle, looks like he’s bracing for something.
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Saturday, February 03, 2018
Here Come Bigger Paychecks! / Politics / Government Spending
By: Rodney_Johnson
So far in 2018, New England froze over and the government shut down. And it’s only January!But just like with Christmas, there are some things that never happen fast enough. One of them is any change that gives workers bigger paychecks. With February just around the corner, that change is coming fast!
The IRS has published the new withholding tables reflecting the recent tax reform. By the pay period ending February 15, employers should have built these rules into their payroll calculations.
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