Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, July 19, 2018
Bitcoin Price Rallies to Upper Channel – What Next? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Even we were concerned with Bitcoin briefly traded below $6k in late June. Yet, the recent upside price move was incredibly quick and the price of Bitcoin ran right up to our upper price channel. We believe this will become a new price peak over the next few days/weeks where the price of Bitcoin should continue to drop from these levels near $7500. We know there are many Bitcoin investors that want to hear us state that it should continue to push higher, but there are other factors at play here that may limit this movement.
The price channels that are currently constraining the price of Bitcoin originate back in February and March of 2018. The low and high price rotation within these months start the points of interest for our research team. From these points, we have continued to identify key price levels that appear to contain breakouts.
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Tuesday, July 17, 2018
Bitcoin Holders Are Today Learning Something Goldbugs Already Know / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: MoneyMetals
Precious metals investors have learned a difficult truth in recent years. The best way to control a market is to put Wall Street in charge of it.
Gold and silver futures were created in the 1970s with the admitted purpose of “increasing volatility” in the markets and discouraging the ownership of physical bullion. It is a lesson that participants in other markets would do well to learn – specifically the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets.
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Tuesday, July 17, 2018
Bitcoin Price Analysis – Bullish Golden Cross on the Hourly? / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Submissions
John Lee Quigley writes: $6400 was acting as a significant resistance level for Bitcoin’s price, however, over the last hour, the price has managed to break to the upside and is currently trading above the $6500 level. The move up over the last hour was on significant volume showing there is some weight behind the move which contrasts heavily with last weeks price action when many were speculating a return to sub-$6000 levels.
Sunday, July 15, 2018
The US Dollar Crash of 2018 Has Begun / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Austin_Galt
Previous analysis updated – in previous analysis produced on the 21st June 2018, I called the high of the rally at 95.22. This was wrong. It traded marginally higher, 3 pips in fact, putting in a high of 95.25 on the 28th June. It now appears as if it is all systems go for the mini crash of 2018. This should, in my opinion, be confirmed next week with follow through to the downside.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 13, 2018
Focus on the Greenback, Will USD Fall Below Euro 1.6? / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Nadia_Simmons
Although last week’s decline took the USD Index under the late June’s lows, currency bulls didn’t break down with this deterioration and responded to their rivals fairly in previous days. Thanks to their determination, the greenback has wiped out most of the recent decline, which in combination with several other positive factors about which we wrote in today's Forex Trading Alert suggests that ...
Before, we analyze the current situation in our currency pairs, let’s examine the short-term picture of the USD Index.
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Friday, July 13, 2018
Bitcoin Picture Less Than Pretty / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
The move up seemed to be continuing and the first impression was that we were seeing a first period of appreciation in some time. But the operative word here is “seemed.” If we take a closer look at what the current environment really is, the picture is far less pretty.
Bitcoin has been around for close to a decade now. Yet we haven’t seen much in the way of research on the Bitcoin network and the principles governing it. Sure, there have been studies analyzing the system from an economic point of view, but their number has been low relative to other topics covered by economic research. In other words, Bitcoin hasn’t been researched that much by people from academia. Against such a backdrop, it is interesting to see new papers taking on the problem of incentives in the Bitcoin network. In an article on the MIT Technology Review website, we read:
Wednesday, July 11, 2018
The Value of Bitcoin / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Submissions
In a world that is looking for alternative forms of currency due to heavy regulations and red tape installed in the current transaction systems of the economy, cryptocurrency is presented as a formidable option to traditional forms of currency. Cryptocurrency began as a craze for digital currency that is unbound by many laws and regulations. With cryptocurrency, few questions are asked when making or receiving payments which makes it very attractive.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 11, 2018
How NOT to Become a Casualty in the War on Cash / Currencies / War on Cash
By: MoneyMetals
Lots of bullion investors wonder if the metal they hold might one day be needed for barter and trade. They bought gold and silver, at least in part, as a form of insurance. It just might come in handy in an extreme circumstance such as a currency crisis of the sort Venezuelans are grappling with right now.
However, a hyper-inflationary collapse in the dollar isn’t the only dire scenario to insure against.
It is now clear that the dollar, and the financial network it runs on, is a mechanism for controlling people who don’t toe the government line.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
An Elixir for Argentina’s Fiscal Dysfunction / Currencies / Argentina
By: Steve_H_Hanke
Argentina and its peso are in trouble, again. By officially replacing the peso with the U.S. dollar, Argentina’s peso nightmare would end. But, in a country in which fiscal fiddlers know many tricks, some fiscal rules must also be added to the prescription.
Dollarization should impose a hard budget constraint on Argentina. Under dollarization, which exists in 33 countries, hard budget constraints are imposed because dollarized countries must finance government spending by taxing or borrowing in either domestic or international bond markets. They cannot finance government expenditures by using a central bank, which issues a domestic currency. As a result, fiscal deficits, when they occur, tend to be relatively small. But, there has been one noteworthy, unusual case: Zimbabwe. This case merits our attention.
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Wednesday, July 11, 2018
Argentina Should Scrap the Peso and Dollarize / Currencies / Argentina
By: Steve_H_Hanke
On July 9th, Argentina will celebrate its 202nd birthday. The biggest spoiler during the festivities will be the beleaguered peso. It’s not the first time the peso has been a spoiler. Since its founding, Argentina has been burdened with numerous economic crises. Most can be laid at the feet of domestic mismanagement and currency problems (read: currency collapses). To list but a few of these crises: 1876, 1890, 1914, 1930, 1952, 1958, 1967, 1975, 1985, 1989, 2001, and 2018(?).
By the time its 100th birthday rolled around, Argentina had experienced only three major economic crises. Alas, the next 102 years have been much more eventful, with eight currency crises, not counting 2018.
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Monday, July 09, 2018
How Trade Wars Penalize Asian Currencies / Currencies / Protectionism
By: Dan_Steinbock
Not so long ago, Asian currencies anticipated depreciation pressures to increase, due to monetary normalization. Yet, it is the trade wars that are now penalizing all currencies, particularly in exporting economies.In January, I gave a global economic briefing on the outlook of the Philippines in the Nordic Chamber of Commerce in Manila. At the time, the peso was still about 50.80 to U.S. dollar. Among other things, I projected the peso to soften to 54 or more toward the end of the year, which I considered largely the net effect of normalization in advanced economies, elevated trade friction worldwide, as well as fiscal expansion (the Duterte investment program).
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Saturday, July 07, 2018
The Euro, the British Pound and the Other Side of the Coin / Currencies / Forex Trading
By: Nadia_Simmons
Analyzing the medium-term charts of the euro and the British pound, we see that currency bulls fought fiercely with their rivals during recent weeks. Despite several attempts to push both currencies lower, they successfully defended their main strongholds in both cases and defeated fans of the greenback. What does this mean for the U.S. currency and its European competitors?
Thursday, July 05, 2018
Elliott Wave Analysis: Is US Dollar About to Turn? / Currencies / US Dollar
By: ElliottWave-Forecast
At Elliottwave-Forecast.com, we use correlation as one tool to complement our forecast. We often use USDPLN as we believe it is good proxy for Dollar Index (DXY). In below’s chart, we overlay the two instrument, and we can clearly see they are nearly identical
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Thursday, July 05, 2018
Why Is the Cryptocurrency Market So Volatile: Expert Take / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Andrew_Cioffi
The age of digital currencies, particularly cryptocurrencies, is here with us. It is barely a decade since the market for these digital currencies came into force. In fact, 2019 will mark exactly ten years since Bitcoin, blockchain and the ensuing platforms were launched. Cryptocurrencies have introduced so many different possibilities for both online and offline trade. While these currencies have been in the market for a considerable duration, the volatility is yet to settle. There are several key reasons why the cryptocurrency market is still very volatile. Here is a highlight of the main reasons.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, July 04, 2018
Back to Resistance for Bitcoin and Ethereum / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Submissions
By Ryan Wilday: In last week’s article, my charts showed that I expected a corrective rally into the zones we are now pushing against. As always, I marked key resistance with a box and price has entered those areas. These zones are $6724-$7045 in bitcoin (BTC-USD) and $461-$489 in ethereum (ETH-USD).
Because I don’t view the downside trend as complete, nor do we have price through resistance in, my primary remains that that we’ll see further downside. But any thesis regarding market direction must be held loosely. Instead this is an opportunity for me to observe how the market reacts.
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Wednesday, July 04, 2018
GBP/USD – Time to Jump in with Both Feet? / Currencies / British Pound
By: Nadia_Simmons
On Friday, the British pound showed strength against the greenback, which resulted in an invalidation of the breakdown under the long-term support line. The closure of the week above this important line emphasized the advantage of currency bulls over their rivals. What a pity that they rested on their laurels.Why? Because yesterday’s session erased most of the earlier rebound. This bucket of cold water, however, awakened the buyers who returned to the game for higher levels. What must they do to make GBP/USD grow above 1.3000?
Tuesday, July 03, 2018
Bitcoin Tension Ramps up / Currencies / Bitcoin
By: Mike_McAra
The recent couple of days have turned the short-term outlook on its ear for some traders. The last couple of months have seemed like sooth sailing, not something that could be said about the Bitcoin market too many times in the past. Now, we get a different reading and some might say that the tide has turned. But you need to go deeper than that.
Bitcoin has gone up and the bulls are euphoric. This is a marked change from the recent weeks when there was little to nothing for Bitcoin aficionados to cheer to. The main question, however, remains: “Has anything changed?” With the recent appreciation, we could also ask: “Does this action change anything?” Is there anything that could drive the profits on our hypothetical speculative positions?
Friday, June 29, 2018
Where the U.S. Dollar Will Go Next / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Troy_Bombardia
For a long time I said that “Money Flow” determines a currency pair’s direction. But I’ve never been able to quantify that concept using an indicator. I’ve tried various things over the years: inflation differentials, interest rate differentials, etc. All of these were commonly accepted theories but were disproven in the light of historical data.
From Ed Yardeni’s book “Predicting the Markets”, we can now quantify the idea behind Money Flow:
On a 12 month basis, the United States has been running widening trade deficits for decades. The trade deficit of the U.S. must equal the trade surplus of the rest of the world. So the 12 month change of non-gold international reserves held by all central banks (excluding the Federal Reserve) minus the trade surplus of the rest of the world should be a proxy for capital inflows (and outflows) to the rest of the world from the U.S.
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Tuesday, June 26, 2018
Sound Money Needed Now More Than Ever / Currencies / Fiat Currency
By: MoneyMetals
The sound money movement reemerged on the national political scene a decade ago. In 2008, the financial crisis brought in a fresh wave of U.S. gold and silver investors.
Ron Paul and the Tea Party advocated for limiting government and ending the Federal Reserve system. Sound money advocates made real inroads in recruiting Americans to their cause based on evidence that the nation is headed for bankruptcy.
The implications of the most recent financial crisis went way beyond budget and finance.
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Saturday, June 23, 2018
A Trade War Won’t Be Good for the US Dollar / Currencies / US Dollar
By: Peter_Schiff
On Wall Street, it's best not to think too hard or to look too closely into the mouths of gift horses. Since making predictions based on actual economic understanding is rare, analysts typically look to provide explanations after the fact. Within the financial services industry, currency traders are perhaps the greatest practitioners of this craft. While they often get the fundamentals completely wrong, it never seems to stop them from offering bizarre theories to explain currency movements.