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Analysis Topic: Currency Market Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Currencies

Tuesday, November 05, 2019

Larger Bullish Move in USD/JPY May Just Be Getting Started / Currencies / Japanese Yen

By: MarketsToday

Summary

  • Once current retracement is complete the USD/JPY has a good chance of exceeding last week’s high.
  • Pair still in early stages of following through on bullish breakout of a large head and shoulders bottom.
  • Upside target zone around $110.51 to $110.70.

Following an upside breakout of a large head and shoulders bottom pattern several weeks ago, the USD/JPY pulled back to test support of the neckline last week. So far, the area of the neckline has held as support around $107.88. Whether it continues to do so remains to be seen.

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Currencies

Sunday, November 03, 2019

Is US Dollar Topping? / Currencies / US Dollar

By: ElliottWaveForecast

The Fed’s monetary stance has turned 180 degree this year. Recall last year the Fed talked about shrinking the balance sheet on auto pilot and raising interest rate. The QT (Quantitative Tightening) of $50 billion a month, according to former Fed Chair Janet Yellen, should be boring like watching paint dry. By July this year, the $50 billion monthly rundown has ended. Instead, the Fed embarks in another balance sheet inflation to the tune of 60 billion a month. In mid-September, short term funding in repo market spiked to 10% from 2% overnight. This suggests stress in the financial system as some banks and financial institution can’t find necessary cash in the market. The Fed quickly points out this balance sheet expansion is different than asset purchase from years ago. Below is the chart of the Fed’s balance sheet. It has dropped steadily from 2017 and reverses higher this year.

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Currencies

Friday, November 01, 2019

Near-term bearish signs for Bitcoin Cash / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: MarketsToday

Summary

  • Bearish doji candlestick pattern occurs after seven days up.
  • Occurs on test of neckline of large bearish head & shoulders topping pattern.
  • Potentially significant drop possible to below most recent swing low.
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Currencies

Sunday, October 27, 2019

Here is why Bitcoin jumped 20% (2019-10-25) / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: readtheticker

If you are having trouble finding the news behind the bitcoin price move, don't fret here is the answer.

1) Gold and silver starting to react to US FED repo non QE US Dollar creation.
2) Congress questioning of Zuck on Libra did not surprise.
3) Bitcoin price hit trusted outer demand channel line (see chart below).

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Currencies

Sunday, October 27, 2019

Latin America Sinks Under The Weight Of Its Third-Rate Currencies / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Latin America is plagued with many endemic economic problems. As a result, slow growth and economic instability are the order of the day. Latin America is sinking. In the grand scheme of things, it’s become irrelevant.

When it comes to listing culprits that account for the zombie growth rates in Latin America, the laundry list usually includes: high levels of corruption, a weak application of the rule of law, poor public services, a lack of public safety, and so on.

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Currencies

Friday, October 18, 2019

British Pound Brexit Chaos GBP Trend Forecast / Currencies / British Pound

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Pound fell sharply following the announcement that Parliament would be suspended so as to enable a hard Brexit. However subsequent chaos of the Governments loss of control of Parliament with Remainer's taking control of business of the house has seen a sharp bounce in sterling which is contrary to what one would expect given extreme chaos and uncertainty.

Taking a look at the British Pound since Theresa May took office July 2016 against key Brexit events paints a different picture of what is driving the British Pound where the Brexit factor is concerned.

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Currencies

Thursday, October 17, 2019

Currencies Show A Shift to Safety And Maturity – What Does It Mean? / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recent rotation in multiple foreign currencies hints at the fact that a new stage of the “Capital Shift” process is taking place and that skilled technical investors need to pay very close attention to how these currencies continue to react over the next 3 to 6+ months.  In the recent past, most of the world’s foreign currencies were declining in value while the US Dollar continued to strengthen.  In fact, we authored many research articles about these trends and how weakness in foreign currencies will drive new foreign investment into the US stock markets for two simple reasons; strength and security. 

Now that a few of the world’s most mature economies, and some that may surprise you, are starting to change directions, we may be beginning a new stage of the “capital shift” process that may open up multiple new opportunities for skilled technical traders.  As the old saying goes, “follow the money”.  At this point, if our research team is correct about these price trend changes, following the money may mean opening our eyes to new investment opportunities across the Pacific and Atlantic – as well as very near to the US.

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Currencies

Monday, October 14, 2019

British Pound GBP Trend Analysis / Currencies / British Pound

By: Nadeem_Walayat

GBP Long-term Trend

What stands out from the long-term chart is that GBP has been in a downtrend for many years, a good 20 years in fact for I recall sterling trading at over £/$ 2.0 a few years earlier than this graph. So whilst the clueless mainstream press have been crowing since 23rd of June of how the Pound has collapsed following Brexit. What they fail to understand is that Pound would have fallen regardless of the results of the 23rd June 2016 referendum because it's in a bear market.

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Currencies

Friday, October 11, 2019

US Dollar Index Trend Analysis / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A good technical starting point would be a quick look at the prospects for the US Dollar.

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Currencies

Thursday, October 10, 2019

How Does Inflation Affect Exchange Rates? / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Submissions

Consumers are always worrying about the rising cost of basic needs, products, and services. Whether we like it or not, the global economy affects all of us.

When we hear the word inflation, we often think about the increase in the prices of the things we buy. But how important is it to understand inflation and the factors that influence it?

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Currencies

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Monetary Madness Puts U.S. Dollars Holders in Jeopardy / Currencies / US Dollar

By: MoneyMetals

We’re in uncharted territory. Never before have U.S. fiscal and monetary policy been leveraged so heavily to boost an economy that wasn’t even in recession.

Something will break – and it could be the value of U.S. currency. The Federal Reserve Note now faces devaluation pressures on multiple fronts.

With the federal government running a trillion-dollar budget deficit and an election year approaching, fiscal restraint is a dead letter in Washington, D.C. Politicians are fighting over who can promise to borrow and spend the most.

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Currencies

Wednesday, October 02, 2019

A Guide to FX Trading By Artur Hochberg / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Travis_Bard

Planning to trade in the currency markets? Below are trading tips from Artur Hochberg that will assist you in managing the risks for profitability and longevity.

Most novice traders getting into the forex market tend to think of it as an investment for their money. Some will go as far as to call it a 'safe' investment. Artur Hochberg, however, says that there is a big difference between trading FX and investing in stocks or bonds.

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Currencies

Saturday, September 28, 2019

British Pound Fundamental Analysis / Currencies / British Pound

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Political Implications

An expected Tory general election win favours GBP strengthening as it delivers political certainty even if under BJ implies a hard Brexit outcome is more probable.

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Currencies

Friday, September 27, 2019

Bitcoin Price Collapse Continues For Many Months / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The recent price collapse in Bitcoin may be the start of a much bigger price trend in the Cryptos.  The support level near $9000 has been breached and the current resistance arc, see the MAGENTA Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs on these charts, are clearly acting as a major contracting price resistance level.  Our research suggests price will find support near $7900, then $5571, then possibly just above $2000. But first, be sure to opt-in to our free market trend signals newsletter

The Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arcs are a proprietary modeling tool we use to measure and track how price may react based on previous price swings.  They are the visual deployment of two unique theories;  Fibonacci price theory and Tesla’s Mechanical Resonance theory.  The basis behind our thinking when we created this proprietary tool was that Fibonacci price theory suggests that all price movement is related and structured to previous price movements and that Tesla’s theory that everything we touch, see and know to exist is the result of ENERGY suggested to us that ENERGY may be one of the most important components in understanding price movement.

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Currencies

Thursday, September 19, 2019

The Many Forex Trading Opportunities the Fed Day Has Dealt Us / Currencies / Forex Trading

By: Nadia_Simmons

Volatile trading is calming down, revealing several opportunities. The euro has retraced its yesterday’s downswing, the Japanese yen is strengthening – just as the Canadian dollar is. Swiss franc is another currency we’re keeping a close eye on. But how does it translate into our currency trading plans?

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Currencies

Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Bitcoin Price 2019 Trend Current State / Currencies / Bitcoin

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Bitcoin continued it's bear market into 2019 hitting a low of $3,400 by Mid Feb, following which the bitcoin price entered into a trading range with an upward bias with resistance at $4,300 and rising trendline support from the $3,400 low as illustrated by the chart from my last update of late April 2019.

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Currencies

Sunday, September 15, 2019

The Race to Depreciate Fiat Currencies Is Accelerating / Currencies / Fiat Currency

By: MoneyMetals

Metals investors are anxiously awaiting the market’s reaction to next week’s Fed meeting. We may see players in the futures markets move to smash gold and silver prices down to lower support zones in the trading around the Fed’s decision.

But flushing out some more speculative longs and late comers with weak hands would be a healthy development in setting up the next rally.

Those who got left behind in this summer’s big moves in metals markets should certainly consider taking advantage of favorable buying opportunities as they present themselves ahead of a possible seasonal push higher in the sector this fall.

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Currencies

Saturday, September 14, 2019

British Pound vs Brexit Chaos Timeline / Currencies / British Pound

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The consensus view is that the market seeks a resolution to Brexit uncertainty of when or even if the UK would leave the EU. Which given current extreme chaos would suggest that the British Pound should be an death spiral of sorts.

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Currencies

Monday, September 09, 2019

UUP Bullish Cycles from May 2011 lows / Currencies / US Dollar

By: ElliottWaveForecast

Firstly the dollar tracking ETF fund UUP  inception date was 2/20/2007. Interestingly the dollar index has a low in March 2008. The UUP ETF fund shows a low in May 2011. The dollar index did make a pullback cycle low in May 2011 however it was well above the March 2008 lows. The bullish cycle up from the May 2011 lows in UUP is the focus of this analysis where it begins on the weekly chart. It should see some further upside before any larger size pullbacks relative to the longer term cycles.

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Currencies

Saturday, August 31, 2019

King Dollar Global Reserve Paradox / Currencies / US Dollar

By: Jim_Willie_CB

An intriguing paradox is evident, whereby the USDollar continues to rise despite the global economic recession. In fact, it can be argued that the USDollar is rising in the past several months, because of the global recession. On a worldwide basis, the economy is struggling badly, especially in the West. Worse still, without a doubt, the rising USDollar is destroying the individual economies of smaller nations, one by one. The King Dollar is truly an economic machete. Numerous factors are at work. All contribute toward the continued rise of the USDollar until the systemic breakdown hits both the economy and the financial system. The sign of systemic breakdown is the bond rally, which has taken bond yields into negative territory. Nobody with a working cerebrum can claim that $17 trillion in sovereign bonds sporting negative yields can defend the current system as either normal or stable. The Fed Valuation Model justifies higher stock index values when bond yields are lower, but the model has no modern feature for negative rates. Eventually, and soon, the only beneficiary will be Gold & Silver, along with a few hard assets like diamonds.

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