Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, January 06, 2010
Baum Makes Mincemeat of Bernanke's Twisted Zero Interest Rate Logic / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Shedlock
In Ivory Tower Doesn’t Have a Mortgage, Bloomberg columnist Caroline Baum makes mincemeat out of Bernanke's twisted defense of Fed policy.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
U.S. Dollar and Treasury Bonds At Risk Following Fannie and Freddie Debt Monetization / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The background noise has been considerable. The US Congress, the august body that often passes legislation without reading it, evaluates a new initiative to reinstitute the Glass Steagall Act. Pass it, don't read it! Great idea! In the wisdom from post-Depression seven decades ago, the same Congress imposed firewall separation among the commercial banks, the brokerage houses, and the insurance firms in order to prevent systemic financial sector failure. That is precisely what happened in the last two years, without proper recognition or diagnosis, except by this and some analysts. Insolvent systems do not spring back to life with grandiose infusions of phony money and complete covers for fraud. They remain insolvent.
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Bank of England Quantitative Easing Gilts Market Smoke and Mirrors Dangerous Game / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England's actions throughout 2008 and 2009 have shown that it's primary objective is to massage the UK Government Bond market. The evidence for this is in the fact that the vast majority of the £200 billion of Q,E, has been utilised for the purpose of monetizing government debt i.e. buying gilts to prevent Gilt auction failures and higher yields.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Why is the U.S. Dollar Rising, Treasury Bond Market Failure 2010? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: G_Abraham
Now am not a trader nor do I rely on charts but those who do, tell me that dollar has broken a “falling wedge” and is all set to rally a great deal in the coming weeks. Most reaserch houses have put in dollar targets of anywhere between 78 and 83.
JP Morgan: 78
Morgan Stanley 82
CLSA 83
GS: They still cant believe dollar is rallying let alone leaving a target.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Morgan Stanley Forecasts 5.5% 10-Year Treasuries, 30 Year Mortgages at 7.5% / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
David Greenlaw, chief fixed-income economist at Morgan Stanley Sees 5.5% Note as U.S. Faces Deficits.
Monday, December 28, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Crash Not Stocks the Big Story of 2010 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Graham_Summers
Let’s pretend the US is a company.
For starters, this company has a massive debt problem. The official number is $12 trillion and counting, which is roughly the equivalent of one year’s annual production. On the surface, that’s not TOO bad.
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Sunday, December 27, 2009
UK Interest Rate Being Kept Artificially Low For Bank Profiteering / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This UK interest rate analysis represents the next in a series of analysis as part of my unfolding inflationary mega-trend scenario towards the formulation of 2010 forecasts for inflation, interest rates and economy. I aim to complete the whole scenario and implications of before the end of December which will be published as an ebook that I will make available for FREE. Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get the latest analysis in your email box and check my most recent analysis on the probable inflation mega-trend at http://www.walayatstreet.com
Thursday, December 24, 2009
The Zero Interest Rate Corner, Costs and Isolation 2010 / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Think isolation. Think monetization. Think trapped. Think Catch-22, no remotely viable option. Think motive for propaganda. Think end of the road in a gigantic US Treasury bubble, in the process of discredit. Think last resort of monetization, due to the absence of bidders at US treasury auctions. Think pressure like a vise. The USGovt is in a great big bind and chooses not to discuss it. As European nations ponder the plight of sovereign debt default, the United States compares an order of magnitude worse from deeper insolvency. A default closer to home is considered unthinkable. So was a broad mortgage market breakdown. So was an endless housing decline. So was an insolvent broken banking system. So were consecutive $1 trillion federal deficits. All were forecasted here.
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
Bernanke Pushing His Luck on U.S. Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Browne
The vast majority of economists now say that the recession is over. Many expect nominal GDP growth as high as four percent in 2010. Now, with the economy assumed to be back on stable footing, some in the private sector are starting to talk about inflation.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Spell Trouble for Bernanke Low Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Marty_Chenard
Bernanke is vowing to keep interest rates low ... but, can he?
We say this because the market is not satisfied with receiving low yields when risk levels are perceived to be rising. That clearly showed up on the 10 year yields yesterday when the yield jumped up to 36.82.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Did the Fed Monetize by Stealth? / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Andrew_Butter
This is a chart of the Fed’s balance sheet that I lifted from an article by Tim
Iacono: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15004.html.
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
U.S. Bond Market Holds Bottom / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market was a touch stronger last week as bonds managed to hold the bottom of the recent range again. The fundamental news was a mixed bag, the FOMC offered no surprises so as a result we had a fairly uneventful week with a narrow trading range heading into the holiday season. The yield curve is not budging from its record steep shape as the Fed made it clear again that they don’t plan to hike their benchmark overnight rate any time soon.
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Monday, December 21, 2009
Why the Fed Will Be Sidelined in 2010 / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Michael_Pento
The release of the Non-Farm Payroll Report for November along with the latest inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics placed further into question the Federal Reserve’s free money policy. The spate of less bad news on the economy and increases in certain price levels has brought some of the bond vigilantes back from hibernation, while the cacophony from the hard-money guys (me chief among them) to raise interest rates is growing yet louder.
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Monday, December 21, 2009
U.S. Debt Totals $133 Trillion, China Prime Beneficiary of Fed Money Printing / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Larry_Edelson
Last week I suggested you to take some hefty profits off the table: Specifically, up to a 91.69% gain on the ProShares Ultra Real Estate ETF (URE), recommended in my June 29 column. That’s almost double your money if you acted on it, in a tad under six months. Not bad!
What’s more, it comes on top of six other recommendations I issued in this column — and closed out — since April, five of them with gains as high as 68.31%, and just one loser!
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Monday, December 21, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Hit, TBT on Rise / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
We have been discussing for weeks that the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (NYSE: TBT) is warning us that longer-term rates are heading higher, but we just don’t know exactly which of the many reasons will come to the fore. Today, bonds are getting hit, perhaps because the healthcare bill in all its splendor, expense and unintended consequences looks like a done deal.
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Monday, December 21, 2009
Government Reports Reveal Economy Faces Unprecedented Risk of Rising Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Martin_D_Weiss
Never before have I seen a broader range of investment opportunities as those opening up early in January!
But if you’re among those throwing caution to the wind … or if you’re slashing your keep-safe holdings to practically zero, then take a long, hard look at the …
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Friday, December 18, 2009
Crumbling U.S. Treasury Bond Market Suggests Spike in Interest Rates 2010 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Larson
The holiday season is here — and in just a couple of weeks, 2009 will fade into the history books. I truly hope that you and your family enjoy these happy times.
But before I sign off for the year, I feel obligated to address one of the biggest threats to your wealth that’s looming in 2010. I’m talking about the very real prospect of “failed” Treasury auctions, plunging bond prices, and a big spike in long-term interest rates.
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Friday, December 18, 2009
UK Government Bonds, Gilts On Edge of Bear Market Triggers / Interest-Rates / UK Debt
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Technical Trader’s view:
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Fed Tightening U.S. Interest Rates? Give Us a Break! / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Axel_Merk
At the end of its scheduled two-day meeting, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) confirmed it will leave its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged and is on schedule to phase out various special liquidity programs. The Fed also confirmed it will continue to buy mortgage backed-securities (MBS) and expects to gradually slow the pace of these purchases; the Fed expects the entire $1.25 billion of MBS purchases to be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010.
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Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Could the Fed Hike U.S. Interest Rates Sooner than Expected? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Gary_Dorsch
One more Dance before Midnight Strikes, “As the old saying goes, what the wise man does at the beginning, fools do in the end,” said Warren Buffett, at Berkshire Hathaway’s Annual Meeting, in May 2006. “It’s like Cinderella at the ball. You know that at midnight everything’s going to turn back to pumpkins and mice. But you look around and say, one more dance, and so does everyone else. Everyone thinks they’ll get out at midnight. The party does get more fun, dance partners get prettier, - one more glass of champagne. And besides, there are no clocks on the wall. And then suddenly, the clock strikes 12, - and everything turns back to pumpkins and mice,” the sage of Omaha said.