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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Thursday, April 03, 2008

Where's the “Protection” in Treasury-Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) / Interest-Rates / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

Every investment product on planet earth is designed to at least offer a chance at a positive, real after-tax return. Put another way, all investments are designed to bring you a return that is greater than the rate of inflation. Some offer a higher stated yield because of their inherent risk, while others display smaller yields due to their perceived relative safety. But all true investments are designed to outpace inflation.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Will Bernanke's Interest Rate Cuts Save the US Economy? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Gerard_Jackson

In the hope of averting a credit crunch and recession Bernanke recently slashed the federal funds rate by 0.75 per cent, bringing it down to 2.25 per cent. Did he do the right thing? Well, Larry Kudlow, NRO's economics editor , certainly thinks so. He eulogised that Bernanke's rate cuts "are vastly more effective than the so-called economic-stimulus rebate plan coming out of Congress and the White House.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Central Banking Cartels- Crisis Cause and Effect / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Joseph_Russo

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRarely do circumstances prevail whereby one is compelled to cast aside a natural self-interest in promoting one's trade, to instead share opinion and perspective on a more broad set of shared observations, beliefs, and convictions, intent upon bringing about vigorous constructive public discourse in serving a purpose much larger than oneself.

Now is such a time, and the following is respectfully our patriotic and dutiful contribution in fostering such endeavors. We yield as much time as we may consume, and reserve the balance of our time remaining.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

The Fed Leviathan Grows / Interest-Rates / Market Regulation

By: David_Shvartsman

Well, it didn't take long for the rumors of a new Federal Reserve-led regulatory regime to blossom into a full blown policy announcement. Today, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson announced plans for the an overhaul of the nation's financial regulatory structure.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 31, 2008

Picture du Jour: US Long Bonds in Injury Time / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSince the advent of the credit crisis, stock markets, real estate and the US dollar have been the subject of investors' angst. However, two markets – commodities and long bonds – have remained in bullish trends. That, at least, is the way it looked until recently.

The Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index hit a peak on March 13, and I argued in a subsequent post that although a correction was overdue, the long-term trend was still upwards.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 28, 2008

Federal Reserve has Begun Buying Mortgage Securities / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Ty_Andros

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe lighting strike in the markets that I looked for in last week's edition did indeed occur across many sectors. It was a belly button moment for many as Commodities, Currencies, Stocks and Interest Rates were rocked midweek and I was forced look around to make sure that “nothing had changed”. The mainstream financial press was quick to say about the ordeal, for those who place their faith and portfolios in Wall Street's hands, that things were on the mend, the commodities BUBBLE was popped and that the implosion of “paper” investments was on its way to being resolved. New bull markets in paper assets. I have two words for their suppositions: NO WAY and KEEP DREAMING. A new phase of the unfolding BAILOUT of the G7 financial and banking systems began in the last 10 days.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Precipitous Drop in Eurodollars is not Sustainable / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Handbury

These days the markets are getting easier to read. For example, today long term Eurodollars got absolutely killed with Sep 2009 contracts down about 35 basis points. According to the experts this was due mainly to the bullish housing report, which showed that existing housing sales are up slightly from January.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, March 23, 2008

Credit Crisis The Problem The Solution / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Fake_Ben

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFirst, we must understand the problem, which is fractional banking. The problem with fractional banking is that cash ALWAYS has to be less valuable than other alternatives. Otherwise, there is an immediate desire to deleverage (to get into cash), and the whole interconnected banking system, with all its counterparty risk, comes crashing down. We are seeing this problem now.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 20, 2008

US Alice in Wonderland Monetary Policy / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHow do you know when you're through the looking glass?  A fairly good indication is when the price of gold, which normally moves up in response to monetary easing, instead plummets in reaction to one of the largest rate cuts in Fed history.  Apparently, yesterday's 6% drop in gold resulted from the “hawkishness” shown by the Fed in only cutting rates by 75 basis points, rather than the 100 points that many had expected.  It is a testament to how low the bar has been set that the Fed can slash rates in the face of a collapsing dollar and soaring commodity prices and still be viewed as hawkish on inflation.  Is it just me, or is Ben Bernanke morphing into the Mad Hatter?

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Beware a Parabolic Rise Culminates in Market Crash / Interest-Rates / Financial Crash

By: Brian_Bloom

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf I have learned one thing in the 40 odd years that I have been watching the markets, it is this: Parabolic rises culminate in crashes. It's a biological phenomenon. The crowd stampedes, or the population explodes, or prices rise with geometrically increasing rapidity – to the point where the rate of increase can no longer be sustained. Because thought paradigms don't change readily, behaviour at the individual level does not adapt appropriately to circumstances and, therefore, behavioural modification is “forced” by the environment. The environment is not able/prepared to tolerate the excessive growth – and the growth collapses in on itself.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Fed Money Printing to Solve Banking Crisis Leading to Stagflation / Interest-Rates / Stagflation

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt doesn't matter what newspaper you picked up. I doesn't matter what TV show you watched. Records fell like no time in recent history with perhaps the exception of Carl Lewis running loose at the Olympics in his heyday.

I wonder how much his Gold medals are worth now?

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 14, 2008

Central Banks $2.5 Trillion Money Supply Fails to Stop Global Deleveraging / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Christopher_Laird

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA year or so ago, I wrote a piece discussing that when the world credit bubble (pan financial bubble in markets and assets) unwinds, world governments will be forced to try and support the markets. The prediction was that this will amount to monetization of failing markets. The alternative to monetization would be intolerable financial panics and market collapses, where people lose all their savings. (Monetization is where central banks buy assets to shore them up, thus using the currency to support collapsing markets. This is in the process of happening now in the EU and the US.)

Right now, we are looking at the precipice of a total world financial collapse. When the stock markets finally let go, people will wake up to the reality of world financial bankruptcy. Millions of people will lose much of their retirement savings, in a super world stock crash, and you will again see stories about people refusing to open their 401k statements because they don't want to see how far down they are. That's what happened right after the Tech crash. Well, think of that episode as merely a taste of what is to come.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 14, 2008

Federal Reserve Throwing Everything at the Credit Crisis / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMike Larson writes: Feds Flying by the Seat of their Pants- Is it just me, or do the Feds seem to be flying by the seat of their pants?

Is it just me, or was Washington completely blind sided by the magnitude of this housing and mortgage crisis ... and now, they're trying desperately to play catch up?

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Are US Interest Rates Fated to Rise? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Greg_Silberman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is one path in investing that is sure to lead to ruin. It's a dangerous path because it lacks one critical ingredient for success – thought! The path we are speaking about is called “following the consensus”.

It is both intellectually and emotionally easy to follow a majority of bullish analysts. Unfortunately the ‘consensus' is seldom right and hardly ever leads to BIG profits.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Credit Overdose! Requiem for a Departing Economic System / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Alex_Wallenwein

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleContinued US Fed liquidity injections like the Fed's previous "Term Auction Facility" (TAF) and today's novel "Term Securities Lending Facility" (TSLF) will only serve to overdose the economy with exactly what ails it: too much credit. This will further boost the price of everything - and in particular, of gold and silver.

The following headline and byline appeared this morning, March 11. 2008, on MarketWatch.com: "Fed's Latest Fix Does the Trick - Wall Street applauds as Fed intercedes, not with fresh rate cut but with a further push to inject funds into the economy."

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 07, 2008

Global Credit and Debt Market Crisis- CNBC They Still Don't Get It! / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Peter_Schiff

Prior to my last appearance on CNBC in October 2007, I had made more than 50 appearances on the network over the prior two years.  In those segments, I repeatedly exposed the superficiality of our prosperity, described the American economy as a “house of cards”, pointed out that borrowing and spending were a ticking time bomb rather than a viable plan for long term economic health, and explained how investors could prepare for the tough times ahead.  At the time, those forecasts were met with ridicule and led to my being nicknamed “Dr. Doom”.  Now that these predictions have come to pass, most on CNBC now claim that no one saw it coming!

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 07, 2008

Central Bankers Meet in Switzerland to Discuss Global Financial Crisis / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Adrian_Ash

The Ghost of Gold at the Central Bank Banquet
"Never shake thy gory locks at me...If thou canst nod, speak too."
Macbeth to Banquo's ghost, who's sitting in his chair ( Macbeth Act III, Scene iv)

THIS WEEKEND in Basel, Switzerland, central bankers from the G-10 group of rich nations meet up for one of their regular hoe-downs.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 06, 2008

UK Interest Rates Expected to be Kept on Hold at 5.25% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Bank of England is expected to keep UK interest rates on hold at 5.25% at today's MPC meeting despite economic data confirming a weakening housing market and economy. Rates were last cut in February 08, which was inline with the Market Oracle forecast as of August 07 and Sept 07 for UK interest rates to fall to 5% by September 2008, this was revised lower to 4.75% in January 2008 , following the US Panic rate cut of 0.75% on 22nd Jan 08 to 3.5%, which was later followed by a further 0.5% cut to take US interest rates to 3%.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 05, 2008

US Treasury Bonds vs. the CRB Point to Bond Market Collapse / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFrom 1980 until the spring of 2002, 10-year Treasury note yields held a positive correlation with the CRB index. Since 2002, however, there has been a dramatic divergence between Treasury yields and commodity prices. This trend is unsustainable in the long term because bond yields must eventually reflect rising inflationary pressures and at some point offer a positive real after-tax return.

There can be only two possible conclusions reached when viewing this disparity, shown in the chart below. One is that commodity prices are no longer an indication of inflationary pressures, a ridiculous contention that cannot be taken seriously. After all, the CRB Index contains 19 commodities that include precious metals, base metals, agriculture and energy, broad measures of the pricing pressures that exist in today's economy.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 03, 2008

Credit Crisis Presents A Great Buying Opportunity? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week we look at yet another rather obscure credit market that is in essential lockdown as the subject of your Outside the Box. My London partner Niels Jensen, head of Absolute Return Partners, has written a very interesting piece on the leveraged loan and bank loan markets, which are now upside down and getting more so in the recent weeks. This situation cannot continue, as what are clearly inferior products are selling for more than there high class cousins.

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