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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 15, 2009

The Trading Opportunity of 2009 Shorting U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn a previous post on long term Treasury bonds, I reviewed some of the technical factors that have me bearish. "So it is highly likely, from this perspective, that Treasury bonds will be an under performing asset class over the next 12 months. But more importantly, will this market top lead to an investing opportunity (i.e., by shorting Treasury bonds)? In other words, will the market top lead to a secular trend change in Treasury bonds?"

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 15, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble in Trouble? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Brady_Willett

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf you have not yet read about the ominous U.S. Treasury bubble (which has been around for awhile ), here is recent a recap:

“Risk-free return” is the standard tag attached to the government's solemn obligations. An investor I know, repulsed by prevailing government yields, has a timelier description – “return-free risk”.James Grant – December 4, 2008

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Credit Crisis Contraction Gaining Positive Traction / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn order to gauge the progress being made to unclog credit markets and restore confidence in the world's financial system, I monitor a range of financial spreads and other measures. By perusing these, as summarized in this “Credit Crisis Watch” review, one can ascertain to what extent the various central bank liquidity facilities and capital injections are having the desired effect.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Ultra-Short Treasury Bond ETF Heading Sharply Higher / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBelow is what I wrote about the ProShares UltraShort 20-year T-Bond ETF (AMEX: TBT) exactly 24 hours ago, which appears to have unfolded pretty close to expectations. If the pattern continues to unfold as I expect, the TBT should hold between 39.00 and 38.50 ahead of a potent upleg that continues the advance off of the 12/18 low at 35.51.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Breakpoint for the Global Monetary System / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System

By: Dr_Krassimir_Petrov

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCHAOS & ORDER - The global monetary system is at a critical juncture. It is fast approaching a breakpoint. We take a philosophical worldview based on chaos theory that considers the evolution of seemingly stable complex systems reaching a bifurcation point, where the whole system rather unpredictably either “explodes” or “implodes” with a lightning speed. The transition is perceived as “chaotic” – the old order collapses and a new order is established. We think that the global monetary system approaches bifurcation – the breakpoint.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, January 12, 2009

Bond Market Plunges as Yields Move Sharply Higher / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market traded off for 2 weeks after 8 consecutive weeks of substantial gains. The pullback was sharp, but insignificant relative to the magnitude of the unprecedented move that the long bond futures made over the past 2 months. As expected, once the yearend buying demand was out of the way, the bong bond cracked in a significant fashion. Last week the market faced the same tug of war that is likely to dominate the market going forward: supportive fundamental news countered by increasing supply concerns. During the first full trading week of the year, the bears won the battle in spite of relatively successful Treasury Note auctions.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 09, 2009

The Fed’s U.S. Treasuries Bubble Trouble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA few weeks ago when the Fed announced a strategy designed to bring down long-term interest and home mortgage rates through unlimited Treasury bond purchases, government debt staged a spectacular rally. To the unschooled market observer, the spike may be difficult to understand. After all, why would the value of Treasury bonds rise while their underlying credit quality is deteriorating faster than Bernie Madoff’s social schedule? The move is actually a perfect illustration of the tried and true Wall Street strategy of “buy the rumor and sell the fact”.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 09, 2009

U.S. Debt Crisis 2009, What must our Creditors be Thinking? / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Chris_Galakoutis

I read an article recently about problem gambling. You can't help but notice all the poker on television these days. Gambling, lotteries, and all forms of speculation become more popular in inflationary times, as more people have difficulty making ends meet. Problem gambling has been known to strain relationships, interfere with responsibilities at home and work, and lead to financial catastrophe, as more good money is thrown after bad.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 08, 2009

UK Interest Rate Cut to New All Time Low of 1.5% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Bank of England cut UK interest rates earlier today by 0.5% to 1.5%, the lowest that the base rate has been in the BoE's 315 year history. The series of rate cuts are a belated panic response to the UK economy plunging over the edge of a cliff that looks set to endure GDP contraction of 3% this year which is worse than any 12 month period since World War 2. Sterling rallied from near record lows against the Euro buoyed by a less than expected cut as many market commentators had expected rates to be cut by 1% today.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 08, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bills, Can you hear the Bond Market POP!? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Daniel_Smolski

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKeynesian capitalism continues to bring with it a saga of never ending bubbles. In just the past decade, we have been faced with the internet bubble bursting of 2000 and a massive real estate bubble that has brought the American economy to its knees. All are examples of a gross misallocation of resources caused by an excess money supply searching for home. The recent credit crunch has provided us with an opportunity to deflate and wipe away all unnecessary liquidity but the Federal Reserve, along with their posy of world bankers, have chosen instead to attempt to reflate a balloon that has already burst. Turning on all the world's liquidity taps has thus far proven to be working. We have beaten down the “evil” that is deflation and we look forward to an era of continued inflation. Inflation that will, undoubtedly, spiral out of control and potentially lead to a period of hyper-inflation.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

Your Country Needs You to Buy Government Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"Are you 100% American? Prove it! Buy US government bonds..." - Poster from the US Treasury promoting the Third Liberty Loan, 1918

THE BRITISH PRIME MINISTER, David Lloyd George, joked in 1915 that it was Britain's political and financial stability which would always enable it to raise "the last million".

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

U.S. Dollar Dead Bounce Ends, Treasury Bond Bubble Begins to Dissipate / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe marquee line best describing the past two to three months has been that the Dollar Death Dance has been fueled by failure of US banks & corporations, along with sponsored assaults against speculative hedge funds. The climate has changed from liquidation and bankruptcies, obviously steered and exploited by the Powerz, toward more legitimate attempts to have a recovery initiative take root across the landscape, It is fast approaching a wasteland. The most vivid signal of market manipulation, intended to benefit the USGovt borrowing costs, and designed to promote the totally false notion of a Flight to Safety, has been the USTreasury bubble.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

Long-term U.S. Treasury Bonds Update / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI have been bearish on long term Treasury bonds long before it was fashionable, and this past week, Barron's has a cover story on Treasuries entitled, "Get Out Now!" It is their belief that "the bubble in Treasuries looks ready to pop, sending prices on government debt sharply lower."

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

Zero Interest Rate Policy and the Liquidity Trap / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mick_Phoenix

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWelcome to the Weekly Report (published 4 Jan 09). I had a nice break over Christmas and the New Year, having spent a week in Norway skiing enjoying guaranteed snow and a good exchange rate to Sterling, thus avoiding the horrible reality of a less than 1:1 Sterling/Euro tourist rate. Sometimes all this macro-econobabble has its uses.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble Bursting?  / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Captain_Hook

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThey've done it now. The Fed has revealed the level of panic they are in behind the scenes by cutting rates to zero and promising unbounded quantitative easing . Here, it should be noted that based on remarks from the Fed Policy Statement Tuesday, quantitative easing is now set to go beyond the bailout style monetiziations of financials that have primarily characterized re-inflation efforts under the gaze of Bernanke and Paulson so far to include just about anybody who needs ‘social assistance', which apparently includes all degrees of bad investors / speculators these days. Make a bad investment. No worries if you're an American apparently as ‘the check is in the mail'.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 06, 2009

U.S. Banks Refuse to Detail How They’re Spending Federal Bailout Money / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWilliam Patalon III writes: After receiving hundreds of billions of dollars in taxpayer-funded federal bailout money, the biggest U.S. banks say they can't track how that money is being spent. Some of the banks are outright refusing to discuss the matter, a new study has found.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, January 05, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble Primed for Inevitable Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Paul_Lamont

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs Treasury Bill yields fell during the early 1930's, Treasury Bonds moved in the opposite direction . As you can see from Table 48 (also from A History of Interest Rates ), Bonds rose in yield (fell in price) during the banking crises of 1930-32.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 02, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble Ripe for Explosion / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Browne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBonds in 2009: A Tough Call - The second half of 2008 will be remembered as the era in which justifiably panicked investors fled the global equity markets and flooded into the bond markets, particularly the U.S. Treasury market. As I write this, the migration largely continues.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 29, 2008

Investment Opportunity in Municipal Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Derrick

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe all know that 2008 has been a rough year for virtually all investors, and the municipal market has not been immune. Municipals, however, have weathered the storm better than most asset classes.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 29, 2008

Grossly Overbought Bond Markets Continue Chugging Higher into New Year / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market just keeps on chugging higher. Yields on the 30 year Treasury Bond decreased for an 8th consecutive week as the Long Bond future continues its unstoppable march higher. There are a couple of undercurrents that I would like to discuss heading into the New Year.

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