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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Friday, August 24, 2007

US Fed - Write Some Checks! Bail 'Em Out! / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Adrian_Ash

"There are more tears shed over answered prayers than over unanswered prayers..." - Teresa of Ávila, patron saint of headache sufferers

BE CAREFUL what you wish for. The entire US Treasury market is betting the Fed will cut rates in September. Goldman Sachs expects rates to finish the year at 4.5%, fully 75-points lower from here.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 24, 2007

More Upside for US Treasuries / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The Lehman 20-year Treasury Bond ETF (AMEX: TLT) continues to grind to new 4-month highs….See our recent daily chart, in which we note that our near and intermediate-term work continue to "warn" us to expect another surge in the TLT that thrusts prices towards 89, which appears to be gaining upside strength as we speak. The weakness in the equity indices hardly can be considered acute, yet the long end of the yield curve is ratching down (lower rates) to reflect expectations of…what?

An economic slowdown?

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 23, 2007

Desperate Measures For US Fed As Treasury Yields Scream for a Interest Rate Cut / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe US financial system is experiencing a combination of a heart attack (fibrillation from absent trade recycled surpluses), a massive hairball (subprime debt securities) working through the bank arteries, and a realization (like Wiley Coyote in cartoons) that no terra firma lies beneath the economic feet as the depths below are vividly apparent. Massive money printing constitutes a heart attack, now a crescendo since the Constitutional violation on gold backed currency. The mortgage bonds simply cannot work through the banking system, with hairballs leading to constipation and unspeakable intra-bank distrust. For ten years the USEconomy has relied upon rising stocks or rising home properties to sustain an entire economy, from a structural foundation of inflating assets. For any central bankers or leading economists working as policy maker counselors, this is a purely heretical strategy.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Fed President Lacker Resists Talk of Fed Funds Rate Cut as US Economy Flirts With Recession / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Richmond Fed President Lacker is the first Fed official to speak publicly about the recent discount rate cut, liquidity issues and the prospects for FOMC federal funds rate policy. I would assume that his comments were cleared by Fed Chairman Bernanke before being delivered to us. Lacker could have saved his breath about discount policy and liquidity challenges. What enquiring minds really want to know is whether the FOMC intends to cut its federal funds rate target at or before its September 18 meeting.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Black Monday for Bond Yields / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Adrian_Ash

"...Monday this week marked the biggest move in Treasury bond yields since Black Monday in Oct. 1987 destroyed more than one-fifth of the US stock market's value..."

REMEMBER HOW INFLATION was the investment world's biggest single worry back in...oh...back in June?

Anyone snapping up 10-year US Treasury bonds back then is now looking clever. Very. Ten weeks ago, the 10-year yield touched a half-decade high of 5.32%. On Monday night in New York it closed below 4.65%.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Why The Fed's Interest Rate Cut Did Not Come As A Surprise / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week's Outside the Box is from good friend and South African partner Dr. Prieur du Plessis of Plexus Asset Management. Prieur suggests that we should not be surprised at last week's rate cut, as it is consistent with past rate cut cycles when viewed from the fact that banks are tightening up on their lending standards to both consumer and commercial borrowers. There are a number of very original graphs here with some very interesting analysis that is truly Outside the Box.

John Mauldin, Editor

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 20, 2007

High Risk Credit / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Dr_Ron_Paul

As markets went on a rollercoaster ride last week, our economy is coming close to a day of reckoning for loose credit policies being followed by the Federal Reserve Bank. Simply, foreign banks we have been relying on to buy our debt are waking up to the reality of much higher default rates than predicted, and many mortgage backed securities have been reduced to "junk" ratings. Wall Street fears the possibility of tightening credit and the tightening of America's belts. Why, they say, "if Americans spend only what they can afford, think of the ripple effects throughout the economy!" This is the cry, as the call comes for the fed to cut rates and bail out companies in trouble.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 20, 2007

The Reserve Bank of Australia gets it Wrong on Financial Markets / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System

By: Gerard_Jackson

Last week the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates. Glenn Stevens, the Reserve's governor, told the house of representatives standing committee on economics, finance and public administration that he did not regret the decision. He said: “It has been a little bit difficult to read what the current trend in inflation is over recent quarters”. Let me see if I can help out here. Inflation, Mr Stevens, is a monetary expansion.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 20, 2007

Lower US Interest Rates from the Fed are Not Likely / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Hans_Wagner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEveryone seeking to beat the market from James Cramer to Wall Street big wigs are crying out for the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower the Fed Funds rate, the rate banks can borrow from each other. They believe that it will save the markets and help the firms recover from the mis-pricing of so many mortgage loans. However the Fed is not likely to lower rates in the near terms since inflation still looms on the horizon. After all fighting inflation is one of the primary missions of the Fed.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 20, 2007

US Interest Rate Cut - Bernanke Blinks First / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: Andy_Sutton

Occasionally, on dark, secluded back streets, adolescents and other not so tightly wrapped folks engage in a classic American rite of passage known as 'Chicken'. The idea behind the game is for two cars to drive directly towards each other at a high rate of speed and see who swerves first. That person is dubbed the chicken. Obviously, it is easy to envision what happens if neither driver blinks.

For approximately the past two weeks financial commentators and observers have been watching a variant of this classic game. The markets, roiled in certainly the biggest blow-off since the end of the tech bubble, and perhaps of all time were screaming madly for the Fed to step in and open the discount window. CNBC host and industry shill Jim Cramer almost brought on a stroke screaming that Bernanke "doesn't know how bad it is out there!" On the other side was the Fed, stalwart, poised and resolute. Something had to give...

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 19, 2007

Prime Interest Rates and the Market Value of Gold / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Greg_Silberman

Before the Feds Emergency rate cut on Friday the bias was to higher rates across the board. For example the Australian Reserve Bank increased prime interest rates by 0.25% and even now after the stock market pummeling, continues to warn of more to come. This article explains why interest rates are about to go higher at exactly the WORST possible time.

The question foremost on investors minds is whether a turbulent stock market warrants halting interest rate increases or, in the case of the US, decreasing rates to resuscitate the Real Estate and credit markets.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, August 17, 2007

US Interest Rate Cut - Relief is Spelt B-E-N / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Brady_Willett

Yen carry is blowing up, global stock prices are in mini-crash mode, and the financial meltdown is threatening to spark an economic meltdown. Having gingerly danced with rhetoric and liquidity injections in recent days, the Fed started to boogie this morning. Here is the statement in its entirety:

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 16, 2007

Effective Fed Funds Rate Cut to 4.75% - Well, bless Poole's Beautiful Hide! / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Adrian_Ash

ONLY A "CALAMITY" would justify an interest-rate cut now, says St. Louis Federal Reserve chief William Poole.

In which case, he either liquidated his personal stock investments before June...or the guy's got some real hide.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Ben, If You're Going to Cut US Interest Rates... / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Tim_Iacono

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pays pretty close attention to the inflation statistics, so he's probably already figured out that if he's going to cut short-term rates this year, he ought to do it in the next two months.

Just in case he hasn't figured it out already, maybe this explanation will assist in what will likely be a difficult decision-making process.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

GOLD THOUGHTS - Federal Reserves Flawed Monetary Policy / Interest-Rates / Inflation

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Complete and total intellectual bankruptcy of Federal Reserve was confirmed this past week. Creation and collapse of two financial bubbles in eight years would seem to suggest monetary philosophy of Federal Reserve is fatally flawed. Core rate of inflation as a tool for managing monetary policy should be declared dead, and buried in history books of foolish thinking.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Bernanke Grounded-- for Now / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: Michael_Pento

The head of the Federal Reserve has so far not lived up to his moniker of “Helicopter Ben.” Unlike what his label suggests, Mr. Bernanke has only addressed the current liquidity crisis with system repurchases—which add temporary cash into the system—instead of coupon passes, which are a more permanent infusion of cash. By leaving the Fed Funds target rate at 5.25%, he has differentiated himself from Alan Greenspan, whose playbook response to a crisis was to devalue the currency without hesitation.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 02, 2007

UK Interest Rates Expected to Stay on Hold at 5.75% Today / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Market Oracle expectations are for the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold at 5.75% at today's MPC meeting.

Our last analysis (18th July 07) targeted the next rise to 6% to occur at the October 2007 MPC Meeting. More importantly there is increasing probability that 6% will mark a peak for UK interest rates. This is becoming clearer with each passing months economic data on the economy which show a slowing housing market and moderating inflation. Additionally, the series of financial knocks such as the ongoing liquidity squeeze sparked by the failure of Bear Stearns Hedge funds due to excessive positions in the faltering US Subprime mortgage market, are also expected to be taken into account at today's interest rate decision meeting.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 02, 2007

Hedge Fund Failures is Fire in the Projection Room / Interest-Rates / Financial Crash

By: Tim_Iacono

Many people in high places continue to assert that problems with hedge funds and subprime lending do not pose a systemic risk to the financial system.

If these important people did think the entire financial system was threatened, do you think they would tell us?

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Hedge Fund Subprime Credit Crunch to Impact Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The ongoing crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage defaults continues to spiral into new directions, making it difficult for even experienced market watchers to comprehend the complete picture and its implication for the financial markets. Therefore this article attempts to explain the crisis and what it implies for future interest rate trends.

What are Subprime Mortgages?

These are Mortgages made available to those of subprime credit risk (poor credit histories), hence called sub prime mortgages.

Why would financial institutions lend to people with poor credit histories ?

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Interest-Rates

Monday, July 30, 2007

Yield on US 10-Year Note Going Lower / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The yield of the 10-Year Treasury note climbed from 4.73% in March to 5.32% in June, at which point it had surged to a six-year resistance line, implying the potential for much higher rates. It then reversed in a big way and plunged to 4.74% into today's low, mostly in response to flight-to-safety concerns.

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