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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

UK Interest Rate Forecast 2009 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe credit crisis has intensified during the last few weeks to a new manic stage as entire countries are put at risk of bankruptcy due to their banking system rescue attempts exploding liabilities, as the demand goes out for 100% guarantees of depositors and country after country buckles under the pressure so as to prevent a collapse of their individual banking systems. However ever increasing and desperate government bailout cash in the form of escalating amounts of daily interbank liquidity, capital injections, and mortgage bond buy back schemes in addition to issuing depositor guarantees increases the liabilities of ALL countries the immediate consequences of which are being played out in ever increasing volatility in the currency markets and stock exchanges as record breaking points swings take place on alternative days. In such a panic stricken climate there are increasingly deafening calls are for immediate interest rate cuts across the western world including for an Imminent UK Interest Rate Cut.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

LIBOR OIS Spread Signals Credit Crisis Earthquake / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKeith Fitz-Gerald writes: More than a year ago, even before the subprime-mortgage crisis had revved itself up into the full-fledged credit crisis that's now threatening global growth, we pointed to the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and other interbank rates that suggested that the worst was yet to come.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 06, 2008

Bailout Bill Will Do Nothing for the Real Economy / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: Michael_Swanson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe are on the edge of pure fear and panic when it comes to the stock market. By just about every indicator you may use to measure the market it is extremely oversold and ready for a bottom. The number of stocks below their 20, 50, and 200 day moving averages are at extremely low levels not seen in decades. The ratio of down to up volume on the Nasdaq was over 95% two days last week, hitting 97% last Monday, which is a level I've never seen before. The VIX is above 40 and has been at an elevated level for the past three weeks. According to the Investors Intelligence Survey there are more bears than bulls in the market, which is a positive from a contrarian standpoint.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 06, 2008

Government Bonds Strong Rally on Grim Economic Outlook / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market traded up last week as panic in financial markets intensified. The latest and greatest $700 Billion bailout package was finally passed by the US authorities last Friday, but it did not seem to make much difference as stocks dropped another 3-4% once the deal was officially passed. As previously mentioned in this here column, it is just another band-aid that hopes to provide quick relief for the symptoms of this gigantic financial crisis without addressing the real problem of dealing with the excess credit that has been built up on all fronts. European governments have also been busy with various rescue plans. Ireland and Germany are leading the charge by declaring that those governments now will guarantee all deposits in their respective banking systems. Surely other countries, including the US , will not be far behind adopting this drastic measure.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 05, 2008

$700 Billion Printing of Bailout Monopoly Money, Hedge Your Wealth! / Interest-Rates / Fiat Currency

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLarry Edelson writes: If you think the biggest cost of the $700-billion bailout package is going to be higher taxes down the road, you're wrong.

The biggest cost is going to be the sheer destruction of the purchasing power of your money, an outright devaluation of the dollar that's going to occur, no matter what.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, October 04, 2008

LIBOR Gone Crazy as Commercial Paper Market Implodes / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: John_Mauldin

  • Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Curve in the Road
  • Necessary but Not Sufficient
  • Why the Government Had to Step In
  • All the King's Horses
  • How Can I Be 59?

The "Bailout Plan" was passed. Will it work? The answer depends on what your definition of "work" is. If by work you mean no more government intervention and no further costly programs and a functioning market, then the answer is no. But there are things it will do. This week I try to help you see what might lie ahead around the Curve in the Road. We look at how the rescue plan will function, see what is happening in the economy, and finally muse as to whether Muddle Through is really in our future. It will make for an interesting, if not very upbeat, letter, so strap in. I would like your promise to not shoot the messenger. I am just trying to give you some of my thoughts as to what may lie in our future. And remember, as you read this, we will get through it. There are better days "a'coming."

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, October 04, 2008

US Government Ramps Up the Money Printing Presses / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKeith Fitz-Gerald writes: After some of the most tumultuous trading in history - not to mention the most pathetic political posturing we've ever seen - my e-mail box has overflowed with questions, comments and suggestions.

This week, I want to answer one of the most frequently asked questions that I've received: "Where does all the bailout money come from?"

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 03, 2008

ECB Signals Imminent European Interest Rate Cuts / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone

By: Victoria_Marklew

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor the first time in over five years the European Central Bank (ECB) today shifted its bias toward easing. In his subsequent comments, President Trichet stated that the ECB had "no bias" regarding future monetary policy moves, and refused to be drawn on the likelihood of a lower refi rate before year's end. However, the Council reportedly discussed only two options: leaving rates unchanged or easing.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 02, 2008

Bailout Fixes Nothing, Banking System Collapse Approaches Climax / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePardon the brief and jumpy style, laced with more emotion than usual. The events of the last few days have been remarkable, alarming, chaotic, and surreal. Gonna attend the Toronto gold show hosted by the Cambridge House this weekend. If you are there, grab my arm and say hello. Let me know your perspective on the brewing crisis.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Global Deposit Bank Warfare, Governments Compete for the Biggest Bailout / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...Seven-hundred billion here, $560 billion there, and pretty soon you're talking deposit-bank warfare in the battle to recapitalize financial firms..."

WELL, IT SURE BEATS trying to secure an inter-bank loan or raising cash from the stock market right now.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 29, 2008

Bailout Would Still Mean a Fragile US Economy / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: Paul_J_Nolte

Pre NO Vote Commentary - Wall Street's hopes and prayers have been at least partially answered, as the leaders have agreed on a bill that will be introduced into the House this morning. $250 billion now, another $100 if necessary, then the final $350 would have to go through Congress. What is left out of the bill is some real assistance to the economy and actually opening the loan process. The removal of the bad loans does nothing to the balance sheets of ailing banks as the equity has already been written down; the mere buying just removes the asset and does not add any equity back into the bank.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 29, 2008

China and the Middle East to Finance US Treasury Bailout? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Wall Street Journal is reporting Financial Troubles Humble U.S.
The U.S. is turning to foreign governments and other overseas investors to buy a good chunk of what could total $700 billion in Treasury debt expected to finance the bailout. Foreign investors also are needed to shore up the depleted capital of the nation's financial institutions, seen in the plan by Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group to buy a large stake in Morgan Stanley, which is weighed down by bad debt and market distrust.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 29, 2008

Escalating Bailout Band-aids Hit US Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBonds traded mostly in negative territory all last week. It looks like it is just regular business these days: another week, another bail-out package. The figure that is bandied about for the latest and greatest deal is a cool $700 Billion. It is just another band-aid in a series of larger and larger band-aids that hopes to provide quick relief for the symptoms of this gigantic financial crisis without addressing the real problem of dealing with the excess credit that has been built up on the consumer, corporate and government fronts. It will be raining Treasury bonds in the foreseeable future, so it is no wonder that the increasing weakness on the fundamental front is not providing much support for lower yields in the long term maturities at this juncture.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, September 28, 2008

Mega-Trend: End of the Era of Falling Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System

By: Boris_Chikvashvili

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDear Reader,

In early CAPI(SOPI)TALISATION process of USSR/RUSSIA, they have searched the earth for a nice motto for a newly minted credit card called RUSSIAN EXPRESS. Their search has finally ended when they DISCOVER(ed) the AMERICAN EXPRESS ad with a motto: Do Not Leave Home Without It.

And Bingo. The choice was uncontested. The motto became...

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Credit Markets Hit by Category 5 Financial Hurricane / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Money_and_Markets

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMike Larson writes: I'll never forget Hurricane Jeanne, which struck Florida four years ago this week.

My wife, young daughter, and I huddled in the shower of our older house as the battery-powered TV flashed tornado warnings and updates on the storm's 115-MPH winds.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, September 26, 2008

WaMu Goes Bust- The Credit Market Is CLOSED! / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMinyanville Professor Bennet Sedacca is the brightest fixed income mind I know. Inquiring minds are tuning in to see his take on the Credit Rout for Wachovia, WaMu .

Welcome to the credit market, folks, it is officially closed.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Credit Stress Interbank Money Market Freeze Evident In TAF, Ted Spread, Everywhere / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCredit dislocations continue to fester. Evidence can be found in corporate bonds, preferred shares, hybrids, the Ted Spread, and even in the most recent Term Auction Facility (TAF) auctions. Let's take a look.

Inquiring minds are looking at a chart of the Ted Spread.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Credit Crisis Bailout- Bill Gross Should be Ashamed of Himself! / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: Chip_Hanlon

I just got the chance to read the op-ed penned by Pimco's Bill Gross in this morning's Washington Post. Wow, have you read this mess?

He did get one thing right, and he backed up his math well enough: the government could potentially make some money on this plan by buying up securitized debt instruments at deeper discounts than they should otherwise be trading. But that actually points to a key, lynchpin part of the problem: mark-to-market accounting is undoubtedly preventing many free-market speculators from purchasing such securities today due to what it would immediately do to their balance sheets. Thus, government may get to scoop up this paper at a deeper discount than is warranted due to its own accounting rules! Ay, yi yi.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 22, 2008

Recommendation to Congress Not to Spread Financial Panic / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: Money_and_Markets

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article Martin D. Weiss writes: The proposal before Congress for a $700 billion mega-bailout is far too little to repair the damaged debt and derivatives markets ... and, at the same time, far too much for investors and taxpayers who must put up the money.

How big is the problem, really?

In the past, Congress has repeatedly asked us for data and analysis on these issues, and we have provided it in Congressional testimony and white papers. In that same tradition, below is a partial first draft of a white paper we will be submitting on this matter:

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 22, 2008

US Treasury Bonds Experience Massive Volatility / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAlong with the rest of the financial markets, the US Treasury market experienced massive volatility during the past week. The Long Bond future traded up over 5 points before ending the week almost unchanged. The 30 year Treasury bond yield traded below 4%, which is the lowest level in over 40 years. Even more significantly, the US 3 month Treasury Bills yielded less than 0.1% for a couple of days as financial markets threatened to seize up. All of the sudden drawing comparisons – even in the main stream media - with the 1990s Japanese depression and the Great Depression of the 1930s does not seem so far fetched any more. It took us years if not decades to get into this mess, I expect it will take a little longer than 3 to 6 months to get out!

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