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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, November 03, 2008

U.S. Bonds Weaker in advance of Massive Issuance of Bailout Treasury Bills / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market lost 4 points last week as the yield on the 10 year note gravitated back to the 4% level that seems to be acting as a magnet of equilibrium these days. While the bounce in the stock market has put some pressure on US Treasury and other government bonds, the real driver for interest rates at the present time is supply. There are certainly a number of other problems that are supportive for the bond market, but all the bailouts, guarantees and government as well as Federal Reserve programs will have to be paid for. It will be done with a massive increase in the issuance of Treasury Bills, Notes and Bonds.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, November 03, 2008

Credit Quake Persists Ahead of UK Interest Rate Cut of 1%? / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Bank of England is expected to follow last weeks U.S. interest rate cut of 0.5% by cutting UK interest rates at Thursdays MPC meeting, speculation is growing that in the face of the economic meltdown of the economy that is falling off the edge of a cliff, that the Bank will take the unprecedented action of cutting interest rates by a whole 1%. The problem here is that as I have observed and commented on these past few years is that the Bank of England's MPC is incompetent , having repeatedly failed in all respects, which is especially apparent in its primary objective of pegging UK inflation at CPI 2% and between the boundaries of 1% and 3%, therefore will the MPC be able to make the leap and cut interest rates by a whole 1% as the economy demands ? , read on...

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, November 02, 2008

Global Zero Interest Rate Policy and the "Impossible Economic Contraction" / Interest-Rates / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe global race to ZIRP is on. Let's recap the state of affairs of the mad march to zero interest rates.

Bank of Japan Cuts Rate to 0.3%

In an attempt to fend off a prolonged recession, the Bank of Japan Cuts Rate to 0.3% .

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, November 02, 2008

LIBOR Unfreezing as Fed Takes Aggressive Action to Boost Economy / Interest-Rates / US Economy

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCNNMoney.com: Bernanke discusses future of Fannie and Freddie
“Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Friday that the federal government will need to continue to play a role in the future of the mortgage financing market.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, November 01, 2008

Fed Desperate U.S. Interest Rate Measures  / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Tim_Wood

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed's action to either raise or lower rates has become a major focal point for the markets in recent years. It seems that the vast majority of the public believes that the Fed is actually controlling interest rates and as a result that they are controlling the credit and equity markets. For a week before the Fed meeting it seems that the entire global markets focus on “what the Fed is going to do.” Will they cut a quarter, will they cut a half or will they not cut at all? Then, after the meeting the talking heads and analysts sit around and try to analyze the meaning of their “Fed Speak.” This is a joke. I am about to show you the proof that the Fed follows the short-term credit market and that in reality they do not lead. The data simply does not support this widely held belief. I realize that this may come as a shock to you, but reality is what it is. The data speaks for itself.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 31, 2008

Interest Rate Conundrum Heralds More Stock Market Distress / Interest-Rates / Stocks Bear Market

By: Money_and_Markets

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMike Larson writes: Step into my interest rate time machine for a minute, if you will. We're going back to February 16, 2005 — the day former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan testified before the Senate Banking Committee.

The topic of the day was the broader economy.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 31, 2008

U.S. Fed Zero Interest Rate Policy Coming? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Fed did not want to cut the Fed Funds Rate below 2%. And because Congress recently granted authority for the Fed to pay interest on reserves, Bernanke thought incorrectly that he could keep rates above 2%. So much for that academic theory. Now many are wondering if ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) is coming to the Fed.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

U.S. Fed Anticipated 0.5% Interest Rate Cut / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe main question is whether today's anticipated Fed rate cut will succeed in maintaining the current boost to global risk appetite, regardless of the size of the easing. Since the beginning of the market crisis 7 weeks ago, the Federal Reserve has proven more creative in its overall actions than surprisingly dovish in its rate cuts. At the last scheduled FOMC meeting, the Committee kept rates unchanged despite the collapse of Lehman Bros but offered a bridge loan to AIG. In keeping with current Modus Operandi, a 50-bp rate cut in the fed funds rate is the most likely scenario, while a 25-bp easing is more plausible than 75-bps.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Pullback in U.S. Treasury Bonds Appears Complete / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The large 6-week coil pattern in the Lehman 20-Year T-Bond ETF (AMEX: TLT) hit its 3rd coordinate on the high side last Friday at 100.00 (off of the 10/17 low at 93.02), and since has pulled back to this morning's low at 96.02, which represents a 60% correction of the 10/17-10/24 upleg. The strength off of 96.02 suggests strongly that the pullback is complete and is turning to the upside to enter a new upleg that will retest and likely hurdle resistance between 100.00 and 100.86 -- on the way to 102.00.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Global Economic Outlook Suggests Concerted Interest Rate Cuts / Interest-Rates / Global Economy

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe financial panic that began in early September has been a body blow to global business confidence and the global economy which, according to the Survey of Business Confidence of the World conducted by Moody's Economy.com , is now in recession.

How bad is the shape of the US and global economy?

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Mortgage Interest Rate Resets May Fuel LIBOR Market Manipulation / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleShah Gilani writes:It's panic time for U.S. legislators, regulators, banks and lenders. More than $24 billion worth of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) are expected to “re-set” to higher interest rates in November – boosting the likelihood of further home foreclosures.

And it gets worse. That increase in borrowing costs will spread to other parts of the global debt market, representing an across-the board threat to corporate, institutional and sovereign borrowers. If interest rates remain high and interbank lending remains tight, the credit crisis is not likely to recede.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Investment Opportunities in Municipal Bonds? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Richard_Shaw

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe $2.66 trillion municipal bond market is embroiled in the overall credit market mess, creating an unusual complex of risks and opportunities.

The supply-demand forces in the municipal bond market have been unfavorable in the past year, causing prices to decline.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Keynesian Economic Claptrap From PIMCO / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe amount of total nonsense currently circulating on the so called Paradox of Thrift is staggering.

The paradox: An increase in saving, which is generally good advice for an individual during bad economic times, can actually worsen the macroeconomy causing a reduction in aggregate income, production, and paradoxically a decrease in saving.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

How LIBOR Threatened to Destroy the Global Banking System / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: largest financial crisis since the Great Depression has revolved around an interest rate that many U.S. investors are only now hearing about for the very first time: The London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR).

But if you understand that rate, and study the forces that have been influencing it, chances are very good that you can figure out how we can escape the current banking-sector mess without wrecking the entire world economy.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 19, 2008

The Mechanism Of Capital Destruction / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Professor_Emeritus

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAddress at the Annual Dinner of the
Committee for Monetary Research and Education, CMRE
on October 16, 2008
New York City


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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 17, 2008

Why Mortgage Interest Rates Are Rising Despite Government Actions! / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Money_and_Markets


Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMike Larson writes: The government is throwing everything … and I do mean EVERYTHING … at the credit and mortgage markets.

It has taken over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Debt vs Interest Rates Conundrum / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Michael_Pento

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI've written before about the dramatic rise in fixed income rates that face investors in the very near future due to the funding issues associated with our entitlement programs coupled with the incalculable measures taken by the government in the past few weeks to stem the credit crisis. Those efforts ensure the amount of Treasury issuance will explode.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

U.S. Forcing Banks to Resume Lending at Bazooka Point / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor now, you can force banks to take money, but you can't force them to lend it. Let's explore this theory starting with a look at the Drama Behind a $250 Billion Banking Deal .

The chief executives of the nine largest banks in the United States trooped into a gilded conference room at the Treasury Department at 3 p.m. Monday. To their astonishment, they were each handed a one-page document that said they agreed to sell shares to the government, then Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. said they must sign it before they left.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

US Treasury Bond Market Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin here with an urgent update on these wild, wild markets.

The key factor many investors seem to be forgetting: While stock markets have enjoyed a historic rally, bond markets are suffering a dramatic decline.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Treasury Bonds ETF Inverse Trend to Stock Market Indices / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTo some degree, the TLTs (Lehman 20 Yr T-bond, ETF) trades inversely to the equity indices like the SPYs (for instance); however, my sense is the recent upside explosion in the stock averages and the recent plunge in TLT prices have "corrected" and defused the bulk of that relationship, which if accurate, means that a new relationship is forming based less on flight-to-safety and more on the still-challenging (to put it mildly) economic fundamentals that will not be corrected any time soon.

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