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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

The Credit Crash - The Next Shoe to Drop Will Be... / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs everyone by now knows, there is chaos in the municipal bond market. This week's Outside the Box is from good friend and Maine fishing buddy David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors ( www.cumber.com ).

Briefly, he outlines the problems we are seeing in munis, but then he goes on to warn of the possible next shoe to drop in closed end municipal bond funds. David is one of the smarter advisors I know, and when he points out a problem, I would suggest taking action.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 15, 2008

US Treasury Bonds: Safe Haven or Wealth Cemetery? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Alex_Wallenwein

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYou know the spiel. Every time the stock markets drop, the financial press reports that US treasuries benefitted from the move in a “safe haven bid” - whatever that means.

Let's examine how safe US treasuries really are:

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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 15, 2008

Looming US Treasury Bond Market Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Clive_Maund

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLike frightened rabbits scurrying back to the apparent safety of their hutches, investors rattled by the sub-prime shocks and the associated tremors in stockmarkets have been fleeing to the perceived safety of Treasury Bonds and Notes. The bad news is that this time the poacher knows where the rabbits are hiding and rabbit stew is on the menu tonight.

Let's just stop and think about this for a moment - just what is a Treasury Bond? - it is a piece of paper telling you that you are going to receive a fixed sum of US dollars at some designated point in the future.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Central Banks Other Option, Crossing the Rubicon / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Christopher_Laird

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRubicon ( Rubicō , Italian: Rubicone ) is a 29km long river in northern Italy. The river flows from the Appennines to the Adriatic sea through the southern Emilia-Romagna region between the towns of Rimini and Cesena. The river is notable as Roman law forbade its generals from crossing it with an army. The river was considered to mark the boundary between the Roman province of Cisalpine Gaul to the north and Italy proper to the south; the law thus protected the republic from internal military threat. When Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon in 49 BC, supposedly on January 10 of the Roman calendar, to make his way to Rome he broke that law and made armed conflict inevitable. According to Suetonius he uttered the famous phrase ālea iacta est ("the die is cast").[2]

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

US Tax Payer to Bail Out Bankers From Default - The Mother of All Rip-offs / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLow interest credit and “financial innovation” are a deadly-combo. They've knocked the banking system for a loop, clogged the credit markets with billions of dollars of subprime sludge, and left the real estate market sprawling on the canvas. Still---even though $2 trillion of capitalization has been wiped-out from falling home prices; and even though the financial system is in a terminal state of paralysis---no one has been held accountable. In fact, not one trader, mortgage lender, rating's-agency official, fund manager, or investment banker has been indicted or charged with criminal wrongdoing.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 08, 2008

US Treasury Bond Market - The Mother of all Bubbles / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn contrast to the dismal forecasting record of mainstream economists over the last few years, the forecasts that I have made regarding the dollar, oil, commodities, precious metals, global stock markets, inflation, and the U.S. economy have all come to pass. In addition, unlike the top economic oracles on Wall Street and in Washington, I can also point to similar accuracy in predicting the bursting of growing bubbles, first with technology in the late 1990's, and more recently with real estate.  However, my long-standing prediction about the fate of the bond market has fared much worse.  I still do believe this prediction was not wrong, but simply premature.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 08, 2008

ECB Smoke and Mirrors to Mask Explosive Money Supply Growth Fueling Inflation / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates

By: Gary_Dorsch

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEuropean Central Bank chief, Jean "Tricky" Trichet, likes to operate behind a veil of "Smoke and Mirrors" in managing the Euro zone's monetary policy, which is designed to fool most people, most of the time. Most importantly, "Tricky" Trichet, has fueled the fastest growth in the Euro M3 money supply in history, running at three times the rate of the ECB's original guidelines, deemed consistent with low inflation.

So it shouldn't have been a surprise to learn that inflation in the Euro zone hit an all-time high of 3.2% in January, and far above the ECB's inflation target of 2 percent. Euro zone producer price inflation picked up to an annual 4.3% in December, led by higher food and energy costs. Trichet and his band of propaganda artists have given plenty of lip service to fighting inflation in recent months, but behind the veil of "Smoke and Mirrors", haven't lifted a finger to put empty words into action.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 07, 2008

European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy Interest Rate Decision Statement / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates

By: ECB

Ladies and gentlemen, the Vice-President and I are very pleased to welcome you to our press conference. Let me report on the outcome of our meeting, which was also attended by Commissioner Almunia.

On the basis of our regular economic and monetary analyses, we decided at today's meeting to leave the key ECB interest rates unchanged. This decision reflects our assessment that risks to price stability over the medium term are on the upside, in a context of very vigorous money and credit growth. The current short-term upward pressure on inflation must not spill over to the medium term. The firm anchoring of inflation expectations over the medium and long term is of the highest priority to the Governing Council, reflecting its mandate.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 07, 2008

UK Interest Rates Cut to 5.25% - Will Not Help the Housing Market / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Bank of England is expected to cut UK interest rates by a quarter point to 5.25% following on from data confirming a weakening housing market and economy. The rate cut would be inline with the Market Oracle forecast as of August 07 and Sept 07 for UK interest rates to fall to 5% by September 2008, this was revised lower to 4.75% in January 2008, following the US Panic rate cut 0.75% on 22nd Jan 08 to 3.5% which was later followed by a further 0.5% cut to 3%

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Reasons Why the US Bond Market is Wrong on Inflation / Interest-Rates / Inflation

By: Michael_Pento

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is no shortage of market gurus on Wall St. who will tell you that inflation is low. The main evidence for their argument stems from the relatively low rates on Treasury bond yields and the narrow spreads on inflation protection securities know as TIPS. Whereas I believe the currently low yields on Treasury debt to be explainable, it is very dangerous to draw the wrong conclusion about inflation from bonds' elevated prices.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Bank of England Interest Rate Policy Targets UK House Price Inflation / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...Rising inflation in the cost of living didn't stop the Old Lady cutting interest rates in 2001, 2003 or 2005. Why change now...?"

WILL THE BANK of ENGLAND cut UK interest rates this Thursday?

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 04, 2008

US Interest Rate Cuts Will Not Help Falling House Prices / Interest-Rates / US Housing

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMike Larson writes: The Federal Reserve stepped up this week and gave Wall Street what it wanted — another half-percentage point cut in interest rates. That brings the federal funds rate down to 3%, the lowest level since the middle of 2005.

Today I want to take a closer look at the Fed's action, to find out what it will — and won't — do. Let's start with ...

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Interest Rate Cuts WIll fail to Build Trust Between Financial Institutions / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: David_Urban

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA little more than a week ago a lone trader was able to rack up 4.9 billion euros in losses from trading in ‘plain vanilla' DAX futures. At the time of the discovery by SocGen officials, the losses were less than 2 billion euros. When the futures were sold off, the market crashed setting off a worldwide chain reaction which climaxed in the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 75 basis points.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

US Fed Printing Money to Avoid Immediate Banking Collapse = Higher Long-term Rates / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Paul_Lamont

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTwo Billionaires Describe Our Outlook - Financial speculator and billionaire, George Soros states in his FT.com commentary : “the current crisis is the culmination of a super-boom that has lasted for more than 60 years.” In June's Higher Rates Reflect Default Risk we described the end of the last credit boom: “In 1928, the U.S. Treasury Bond similarly broke out of the channel and rose to a higher yield. This coincided with the end of ‘easy' money which forced the deleveraging of the economy and concluded with the financial crisis of 1929-1932.” Compare the two Treasury Bond Yield charts below. In 2005-2006 higher bond rates “broke out of the channel” and inflicted damage on the housing market. This marked “the end of ‘easy' money.” Similarly since 2006, there has also been a flight to quality.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Bond Insurers Failures to Break 200 Year Old System - The Great Credit Unwind of 2008 / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"The current crisis is not only the bust that follows the housing boom, it's basically the end of a 60-year period of continuing credit expansion based on the dollar as the reserve currency. Now the rest of the world is increasingly unwilling to accumulate dollars.''  ' George Soros, World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. `

Global market turmoil continued into a second week as stock markets in Asia and Europe took another tumble on Monday on growing fears of a recession in the United States. China's benchmark index plummeted 7.2% to its lowest point in six months, while Japan's Nikkei index slipped another 4.3%. Equities markets across Asia recorded similar results and, by midmorning in Europe, all three major indexes---the UK FTSE “Footsie”, France's CAC 40, and the German DAX---were all recording heavy losses. It's now clear that Fed Chairman Bernanke's 'surprise' announcement of a 75 basis points cut to the Fed Funds rate last Tuesday has neither stabilized the markets nor restored confidence among jittery investors.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Fed Following Short-term Money Market Interest Rates Towards US Recession / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI have said multiple times in the past that the Federal Reserve doesn't lead with interest rate cuts. It follows. The proof is in the chart to the left, which compares the 3-month Treasury Bill Discount Rate to the Federal Funds Rate (blue) and the Fed Discount Rate (red). What this indicates is that there is more room to cut interest rates next week.

But this chart has a darker message , too. The flight to safety in short-term money market funds is a leading economic indicator of a recession.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 25, 2008

Wise Bears Sell US Municipal Bonds And US Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / Financial Crash

By: Richard_Gorton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI. Today saw a rally came from the Federal Reserve cutting the central bank interest by 0.75%.
My investment motto is: "In a bull market be a bull, and in a bear market be a bear: in a bull market, one buy on dips, and in a bear market, one sells pops and rallies". Special thanks to Stockcharts.com for the free us.eage of charts provided herein; all comments are mine, not theirs, or those of any one else.

I recommend that one buy gold as it is in a bull market going 'sooner or later much, much higher'.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 25, 2008

Impact of US Current Account Deficit on Emerging Markets - From Credit to Money, Part I / Interest-Rates / Emerging Markets

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...Wouldn't life be much simpler for everyone if the US raised interest rates and didn't spend more than it had overseas...?"

ONE U.S. DOLLAR used to buy nearly four Brazilian Reals at the start of 2003.Today it buys fewer than half as many. Which you might think implies higher travel, energy and food costs to come for US consumers.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Credit Crisis to Escalate as Mortgage Bond Market Losses to Pass $3 Trillions! / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBankers, Wall Street hucksters, financial network commentators, and floating analysts seem to have flunked basic arithmetic in grand fashion. Maybe they only expose the next link in a long chain of deception, their apparent expertise. One hears estimates of $200 billion on total mortgage bond losses from the Secy of Inflation Ben Bernanke. One witnesses the series of bond writedowns by Wall Street banks. One can read of Wall Street economists like Jan Hatzius of Goldman Sachs, who cites $400 billion in potential bond losses, a favorite figure cited by other bankers. One is subjected to press anchors and their simplistic echoes of bond losses. One is endlessly lectured by highbrow analysts of the extent of bond damage. The trouble is, they all cannot do simple arithmetic and observe the billboards on mortgage bond indexes, fully available.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 24, 2008

UK Interest Rate 2008 Forecast Cuts to 4.75% by September 2008 / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe US Fed's emergency 0.75% interest rate cut to 3.5% following the global stock market plunge on fears of a looming US recession now increases the probability of a near certain cut in UK interest rates at the February MPC Meeting, rather than at the originally forecast March MPC meeting. Whilst the US has made deep cuts in interest rates from a peak of 5.25% to 3.5%, the UK has only cut rates by 0.25% from a peak of 5.75% to 5.50% with the expected February cut to take rates to 5.25%.

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