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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Friday, October 08, 2010

The Incredible Two-Day $144 Billion Jump in US Treasury Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Richard_Daughty

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThings are getting so, so, so weird that I was locked inside the Mogambo Bunker Of Panic (MBOP), looking through the periscope to keep a vigilant watch for the social explosion outside that was coming, I figured, so, so soon, with my finger on the trigger of something fully loaded and reassuringly .45 caliber, and a slice of yummy pizza in my one free hand to keep my energy level up via the universal Magic Of The Pepperoni (MOTP).

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 08, 2010

As QE2 Money Printing Looms, Is the Fed Focusing on the Wrong Things? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is looking forward to 1932.

That's not a misprint. Actually, Bernanke is looking forward to a point when the challenges facing today's U.S. economy mirror the problems of that particular Great Depression-era year. And he wants that to happen for a very simple reason.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 08, 2010

Fed QE2 Rhetoric Tied to Mandate of Full Employment and Inflation Stability / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFinancial markets are largely convinced the Fed will embark on QE2 at the November 2-3 FOMC meeting.  Bernanke's speech on August 27 was the trigger, followed by the FOMC policy statement on September 21 and recent rhetoric of Fed officials Dudley, Evans, and Rosengren.  The dollar has lost significant ground vis-à-vis its major trading partners and others (see chart 1) in a short span to time. 

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 07, 2010

Debt Alarm, Financial Toxic Waste Continues to Unravel, Loan Assets Created Out of Thin Air / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: Matthias_Chang

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDEBTCON-1 (as in DEFCON-1, the highest level of the alarm system for impending military threats/crisis) have been triggered, but the FED, global central banks and regulatory authorities are still in deep denial and treat the ongoing global financial crisis as still in the state of DEBTCON-5 (i.e. DEFCON-5, the lowest threat alert).

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 07, 2010

Japan, U.S. Prepare For More Money Printing / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Chris_Ciovacco

Stalling economies around the globe have prompted central bankers to increase their asset purchase or quantitative easing programs. As central banks print money to purchase assets, they increase the amount of paper dollars in the economy, which is often referred to as “inflating the money supply” or “debasing a currency”. We will continue to look for good entry points to add to our gold positions in numerous client accounts. Our current holdings in copper, silver, oil, and gold can help us protect our purchasing power should central banks be successful in their attempts to create positive inflation via currency debasement.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 07, 2010

Bank Credit: Securities vs. Loans - Guidance about Lags from History / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2010

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe role of bank credit in economic recoveries was the theme of the August U.S. Economic and Interest Rate Outlook (Bank Credit: One Month Does Not Make a Trend, But..).  The main conclusion of the commentary:  A lack of growth in bank credit is the major culprit behind the lackluster recovery.  Chart 1, a repeat from the August commentary, illustrates the close link between bank credit and economic growth. 

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 06, 2010

Bank of Japan Goes "All In" To Stem Deflation / Interest-Rates / Japanese Interest Rates

By: James_Pressler

In an attempt to fight off worsening deflation and prevent the economy from falling into another recession, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced its largest foray yet into the realm of quantitative easing (QE). It lowered its benchmark interest rate to between zero and 0.1% (effectively 0%), set up a ¥5 trillion ($59.7 billion) fund to purchase government and corporate bonds, and also created a ¥30 trillion lending facility using those assets as collateral. The breadth of such QE measures caught the market off-guard and dispelled most concerns about the BoJ being too timid in the face of another economic downturn. And yet, even though the BoJ seems to be placing its largest wager ever on the table, we cannot help but ask: Is it enough?

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 06, 2010

Bank Excess Reserves Have to Decline for Fed Policy to be Successful / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Asha_Bangalore

The nature of recent Fed rhetoric has raised the probability of a second round of quantitative easing (QE) as early as the November 2-3 FOMC meeting. New York Fed President Dudley's speech on October 1 makes a case for this action. Irrespective of Fed action on November 3, excess reserves of the banking system have to decline noticeably for self-sustained robust economic growth to occur. Excess reserves of the banking system, stood at $976 billion for the week ended September 22 and are down from a high of 1.192 trillion (see chart 1) in February 2010. Ideally, excess reserves have to be a negligible entity.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 05, 2010

Fed Crossing the Line? / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Axel_Merk

William Poole writes: New York Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) president Bill Dudley’s speech Friday attracted much press attention, as it should have. His speech is correctly read, as in the press commentary, as providing a broad hint of more policy easing to come. During my tenure as president of the St. Louis Fed, I overlapped with Dudley, who, along with being president of the New York Fed, is Vice Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). I know him to be a competent and cautious policymaker. It is hard for me to believe that he would not have cleared this speech with Chairman Bernanke before presenting.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 05, 2010

Why Certificates of Deposit (CD's) are More Attractive than U.S. Treasury Bonds Today / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Nilus_Mattive

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLast week I told you why many mutual fund investors could be setting themselves up for serious losses in Treasury bonds.

Just to recap — the idea was that mutual funds often buy and sell before their bonds reach maturity, which can translate to big losses for fund holders if interest rates rise. And the upshot was that, if you wanted to truly guarantee against any type of loss, you would have to hold individual bonds to maturity.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 05, 2010

Still Bullish on Bonds, Don't Buy the Stock Market Yet / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs readers know, I was in Europe a few weeks ago, making a LOT of presentations. My London-based partners seem to feel that an hour or two of down time is wasted and only for sissies. I learn as much as I impart, and come away with lots of interesting information. Every now and then I learn something that gets into the category of what in the wide, wide world of (multiple expletives deleted) economics is going on? Subprime was like that when I first read about it. Could you really design CDOs that were so patently absurd and then sell them to the Europeans and Asians? Turns out you could.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 03, 2010

Crisis of US Monetary Policy, Quantitative Easing Doesn't Work / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Washingtons_Blog

Ed Yardley notes: Two economists, Seth B. Carpenter and Selva Demiralp, recently posted a discussion paper on the Federal Reserve Board's website, titled "Money, Reserves, and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: Does the Money Multiplier Exist?" [Here's the link.]

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 03, 2010

The Bernanke Treasury Bond Market Put / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Peter_Navarro

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAccording to Market Edge: “After four weeks of impressive gains, stocks took a breather last week as both the DJIA and the NASDAQ ended the period with minor losses. The DJIA started the week with a 48.22 point (-0.4%) loss which was just the fifth losing session in September. Traders bought the dips throughout the week as the DJIA saw triple digit intra-day swings on both Tuesday and Thursday. Despite several disappointing economic reports, traders kept a bullish outlook throughout the week. For the period, the Dow lost 30 points (-0.3%) to close at 10829, snapping its four week win streak.&r

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, October 02, 2010

QE2 Money Printing, Why This Time Is Different / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Bryan_Rich

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSince the Fed’s most recent meeting, everyone seems to have an opinion about another round of extraordinary monetary stimulus and the economic and market reactions such a move could leave in its wake.

Many believe “this time is different” … words that tend to have a very poor track record of coming true.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, October 02, 2010

Irish Financial Crisis Worsens, Peter Sutherland and Ireland’s Sovereign Wealth Fund / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2010

By: Christopher_Quigley

Last week, on “black Thursday” the Irish government in essence finally nationalized Allied Irish Bank. In response to the horrific national financial picture painted by Mr. Brian Lenihan, Ireland’s finance minister, Peter Sutherland, former Irish attorney general, hit the media road. Mr. Sutherland’s mantra was similar to that previously presented by his acolyte Mr. Honohan (head of the Irish Central Bank). This mantra stated that though the figures were lamentable they were “manageable.”

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 01, 2010

Regime Uncertainty and Treasury Bond Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Robert_Higgs

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRegime uncertainty has gained increasing recognition as the current economic troubles have persisted with little or no improvement since the economy reached a cyclical trough early in 2009. As described in my 1997 paper, regime uncertainty pertains to the likelihood that investors' private property rights in their capital and the income it yields will be attenuated further by government action.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 01, 2010

World Sovereign Debt Map / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: Seth_Barani

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDebt creates problems. It is seldom known to solve problems, especially in the long run. Countries with high debt are vulnerable to currency weakening as debt drives assets out of those countries towards low risk, high yielding countries.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 30, 2010

How Bar Chart Patterns Signal High-probability Trade Setups / Interest-Rates / Learn to Trade

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere's a little known joke among the trading community that goes like this: "A trader walks into a bar... pattern: 'Ouch!' "

Fact is, if you don't know what you're doing, price bar analysis can be a bit "painful." Finding a discernable pattern in their grouping can feel like finding a hair in a hay stack.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

U.S. Debt Options of Default or Hyperinflation / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe big financial myth-buster of the week is that the alleged deleveraging of the US consumer has in fact been a giant myth. According to the Wall Street Journal, if you account for defaults, US consumers have only pared down their debts by an annual rate of 0.8% since mid-2008.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Could Debtflation Cause Gold's Big Sell Off? / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: David_Galland

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDavid Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report writes: We recently received the following comment in our Q&A Knowledge Base.

Investors should be prepared to sell gold as either increased inflation expectations or doubts around debt sustainability force a sharp increase in US Treasury bond yields. Simply put, in an environment of high real interest rates, the allure of gold could disappear as quickly as it did in the early 1980s when Paul Volcker took control of the Federal Reserve.

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