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Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, October 05, 2015

U.S. Jobs Report Moves Fed One Step Closer to QE IV / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Michael_Pento

The September Non-Farm Payroll Report came in with a net increase of just 142k jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.1% and the labor force participation rate dropped to the October 1977 low of 62.4%. Average hourly earnings fell 0.04% and the workweek slipped to 34.5 hours. There were significant downward revisions of 22k and 37k jobs for the July and August reports respectively.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, October 03, 2015

U.S. Interest Rate Hikes Keep On Slippin' Into the Future; Treasury Yields Sink Again / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mike_Shedlock

Treasury Yields Drop Again

Curve Watcher's Anonymous notes a further plunge in yields today following the disastrous payroll and factory order reports.

Yield on the 30-year long bond fell to 2.80% from 2.85% yesterday. Yield on the 10-year note once again sports a 1-handle at 1.97%, down from 2.03%.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 02, 2015

U.S. Rake Hike - Fed Must Thank China and EM / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Ashraf_Laidi

The US September jobs report deals a significant blow to the notion of a 2015 Fed hike--against which we consistently disagreed throughout the year - as it achieved the gloomy feat of disappointing across the board -- headline rate (first back-to-back months of sub 200K in 18 months), downward revision in prior months (-59K), notable decline in average hourly earnings, and the unchanged unemployment rate was offset by the decline in the participation rate to a fresh 38-year lows.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 02, 2015

U.S. Three Month Treasury Yields Turn Negative, Recession Warning? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mike_Shedlock

Curve Watcher's Anonymous points out 3-month treasury yields dipped briefly negative on several days recently.

Yield on the 3-month bond was negative again today. Here is a table I put together with Treasury Yield Quotes from Bloomberg.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 02, 2015

Can You Imagine The Fed Raising Rates In This World? Everything Going Wrong At Once Edition / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Rubino

After the markets failed to embrace its most recent interest rate dither, the Fed dispatched pretty much its entire PR team to make sure we understood that rates would rise Next Month For Sure.

Then everything kind of fell apart. Emerging market capital flight accelerated…

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 02, 2015

US Bond Market - How to Fix This / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

By Jared Dillian

This is a pickle wrapped in a conundrum surrounded by a puzzle, or something like that. The Fed declined to hike rates, which everyone thought was bullish, and then stocks got on the vomit comet. They’ve been going down on an elevator ever since.

I think what’s interesting here is how shamefully far behind the Fed is on this. Dudley is out there still talking rate hikes. Like, just the other day. He has gone right out of his tree. It’s almost as if he lost his B-Unit and can’t log into Bloomberg.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Junk Bond Market Imminent Collapse Threatens (Unwelcome) BIG Rate Rises / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: Clive_Maund

Everyone is so focused on looking at the Fed and whether or not it decides to raise rates by a puny 0.25%, that they are completely overlooking the fact that it is the market's role to set interest rates, and if the Fed is not up to the job, then the markets will eventually take over and do it in a manner that is likely to involve rises vastly greater than a mere 0.25%, which given the current fragile and extremely unstable debt structure, can be expected to have catastrophic consequences.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Panic Is Spreading, Part 1: Surge in Junk Bond Defaults Imminent / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Rubino

One of the early signs that a cycle is about to turn down is disorder in junk bonds. That’s because the companies that issue such bonds are by definition financially and/or operationally weak and therefore ultra-sensitive to changes in their environment. A modest drop in, say, consumer spending or the price of wind turbines will hardly be noticed by an Apple or GE but might threaten the survival of those companies’ weakest competitors. And as credit bubbles inflate, the weak in every field tend to proliferate as overexcited bankers and bond funds offer them plenty of rope with which to hang themselves.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Interest Rates All Bad at 0%? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Axel_Merk

We call on central banks to abolish their zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) framework before more harm is done. In our assessment, ZIRP is bad for all stakeholders and may even lead to war.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, September 25, 2015

Central Banks Don't Dictate Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Frank_Shostak

According to mainstream thinking, the central bank is the key factor in determining interest rates. By setting short-term interest rates the central bank, it is argued, through expectations about the future course of its interest rate policy influences the entire interest rate structure. (According to expectations theory (ET), the long-term rate is an average of the current and expected short-term interest rates.) Note that interest rates in this way of thinking are set by the central bank, while individuals in all of this have almost nothing to do and just mechanically form expectations about the future policy of the central bank. (Individuals here are passively responding to the possible policy of the central bank.)

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Interest-Rates

Friday, September 25, 2015

The Fed’s Alice In Wonderland Economy - What Happens Next? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Casey_Research

By Nick Giambruno

After the president of the United States, the most powerful person on the planet is the chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Ask almost anyone on the street for the name of the U.S. president, and you’ll get a quick answer.

But if you ask the same person what the Federal Reserve is, you’ll likely get a blank stare.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, September 25, 2015

No U.S. Interest Rate Hike Until 2017, It’s Always 1982 Somewhere / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

By Jared Dillian

First, let’s get the gloating out of the way. I said that the Fed would not hike rates here and here. Nobody likes a chest pounder, so that’s the end of the discussion.

So now, what is the trade? Not only did the Fed not hike rates, but the directive was so dovish, it was far outside the range that any reasonable person thought was possible. Should be bullish, right?

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Interest-Rates

Friday, September 25, 2015

From ZIRP to NIRP Sudden End of Fed's Ambition to Raise Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Alasdair_Macleod

The sudden end of the Fed's ambition to raise interest rates above the zero bound, coupled with the FOMC's[1] minutes, which expressed concerns about emerging market economies, has got financial scribblers writing about negative interest rate policies (NIRP). Coincidentally, Andrew Haldane, the chief economist at the Bank of England, published a much commented-on speech giving us a window into the minds of central bankers, with zero interest rate policies (ZIRP) having failed in their objectives.[2]

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Time for the Monetary Nuclear Option: Raining Money on Main Street / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Ellen_Brown

Predictions are that we will soon be seeing the “nuclear option” — central bank-created money injected directly into the real economy. All other options having failed, governments will be reduced to issuing money outright to cover budget deficits. So warns a September 18 article on ZeroHedge titled “It Begins: Australia’s Largest Investment Bank Just Said ‘Helicopter Money’ Is 12-18 Months Away.”

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Federal Reserve Under Yellen / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: BATR

Now that the big bluff from the Federal Reserve that interest rates were poised to start their eventual rise has been played, when will the trigger actually be pulled? Assumptions that the Fed act as custodians of the national trust to balance and maintain the economic stability has been proven wrong time and again. Just how well has their efforts translated into the real economy of business activities that reflects positively for the average American? Obviously, if you are not a hedge fund speculator, your response will be guarded at best.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Behind the Fed’s Decision: The Government Numbers Don’t Add Up / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Rodney_Johnson

After keeping the markets on edge in the days and weeks leading up to today’s decision, the Fed has decided once again to leave interest rates unchanged.

As we’ve spent this week discussing “all things Fed,” it’s worth spilling a little ink on what the quasi-government-but-really-private organization is supposed to do.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

War on Cash, Bank of England Planning Hyper QE, Scrapping Cash for Digital Currency / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Bank of England announces its latest cunning plan in its ongoing 'War on Cash' under the cover of Europe's refugee crisis that is witnessing Eastern European hypocrisy, such as that of Hungary forgetting its own past of sending hundreds of thousands of refugees westwards for over 60 years, and the most recent wave of 1 million or so of economic migrants many of whom receive in work benefits such as tax credits, nevertheless balk at the thought of giving refuge to a single refugee and instead have mobilised their crack troops against defenseless men, women and children.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, September 21, 2015

Why The Big Banks Want Higher Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Rubino

Something strange is happening in the banking business.

In theory, a low interest rate environment is good for banks because it allows them to borrow money for next to nothing and lend it to auto or home buyers for considerably more, making a nice fat spread.

And that’s pretty much how it’s been going. U.S. bank earnings were up 7% y-o-y in the second quarter, to a record $43 billion. Bank lending rose across the board from industrial to auto to mortgage loans, and delinquencies fell for the 21st consecutive quarter.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, September 20, 2015

R.I.P. Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Investment_U

Andrew Snyder writes: I went to the doctor Friday morning. What a problem we have.

“How’s the pain? Do you want some pills for that?” he asked.

“No thanks, doc. Let’s just figure out what’s causing it.”

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, September 20, 2015

Has the Fed Lost its Mojo? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Mike_Whitney

After 6 full years of zero rates and extreme pump-priming that flushed more than $10 trillion dollars into global markets, the Federal Reserve decided that even the slightest uptick in its benchmark Fed Funds rate would trigger enough destructive volatility in emerging markets that it would be better to postpone the rate hike until some unknown date in the future. The announcement that the FOMC planned to keep rates pegged at zero sent stocks briefly higher after which they fell sharply pushing global indices deep into the red.

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