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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 06, 2017

US Interest Rate Curve Inversion and Chaos to Begin by December 2017 / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

The bounce in Treasury yields witnessed after the election of Donald Trump is now decaying in the D.C. swamp. If the Fed continues to ignore this slow growth and deflationary signal from the bond market and continues along its current rate hiking path, the yield curve will invert by the end of this year and an equity market plunge and a recession is sure to follow.

An inverted yield curve, which has correctly predicted the last seven recessions going back to the late 1960’s, occurs when short-term interest rates yield more than longer-term rates. Why is an inverted yield curve so crucial in determining the direction of markets and the economy? Because when bank assets (longer-duration loans) generate less income than bank liabilities (short-term deposits), the incentive to make new loans dries up along with the money supply. And when asset bubbles are starved of that monetary fuel they burst. The severity of the recession depends on the intensity of the asset bubbles in existence prior to the inversion.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 06, 2017

Government Insolvency Gets Harder to Ignore / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: MoneyMetals

Several U.S. states and the federal government are hopelessly insolvent. It’s something many bullion investors have known for years.

The real question is when this reality will pierce the mainstream illusion that deficits, and the crushing pile of debt which accompany them, don’t matter. That moment drew closer last week when ratings agencies downgraded Illinois state bonds to one notch above “junk” status.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 05, 2017

From the Era of Fed Interest Rates Easing to the Era of Tightening / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Dan_Steinbock

After half a decade of ultra-low rates in the United States, the Fed is hiking rates and moving ahead to reduce its massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet. The consequences will reverberate across the world, including Asia.

Before the Trump era, the Federal Reserve hoped to tighten monetary policy more often and aggressively than markets anticipated. But since November, US economic prospects have fluctuated dramatically, from the Trump trade to new volatility.
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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 05, 2017

Soaring Debt = Slow Growth = Even More Debt = Systemic Crisis / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Rubino

It’s just common sense: Borrow too much money and the weight of this debt makes it hard to do things that used to be easy. This truism is now (finally!) hitting home, and blame is being apportioned. A couple of recent examples:

Over The Last 10 Years The U.S. Economy Has Grown At EXACTLY The Same Rate As It Did During The 1930s

(Economic Collapse Blog) – Even though I write about our ongoing long-term economic collapse every day, I didn’t realize that things were this bad. In this article, I am going to show you that the average rate of growth for the U.S. economy over the past 10 years is exactly equal to the average rate that the U.S. economy grew during the 1930s.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 03, 2017

Can a Chart Pattern Help You Catch a Strong Bond Rally? Yes / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

Plus, find out about a dangerous flaw in a "buy-and-hold" stock market strategy

The Elliott wave model has helped investors catch market turns for eight decades.

As Frost & Prechter's Wall Street classic book, Elliott Wave Principle, says:

The Wave Principle is the best forecasting tool in existence. [It] imparts an immense amount of knowledge about the market's position … and its probable ensuing path.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 01, 2017

Brace Yourself for The Debt Great Reset / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2017

By: John_Mauldin

We are coming to a period I call “the Great Reset.”

As it hits, we will have to deal with the largest twin bubbles in the history of the world. One of those bubbles is global debt, especially government debt. The other is the even larger bubble of government promises.

These promises add up to hundreds of trillions of dollars. That’s vastly larger than global GDP.

These are real problems we must face. It will mean forging a new social contract. It will also require changes to taxes and the economy. I believe that within the next 5–10 years, we have to end the debt and government promises.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, May 28, 2017

Subprime 2.0: Lending a $1 Trillion to People With No Proof of Job or Income / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2017

By: Graham_Summers

SubPrime 2.0 is proving far worse than even we suspected.

If you’ve not been following this story, our view is that the auto-loan industry is Subprime 2.0: the riskiest, worst area in a massive debt bubble, much as subprime mortgage lending was the riskiest worst part of the housing bubble from 2003 to 2008.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 25, 2017

The Yield Curve Is the Best Recession Indicator / Interest-Rates / Recession 2018

By: John_Mauldin

By Shannara Johnson : Every investor wishes he had a crystal ball. But there’s one thing, says David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, that has predicted imminent recessions without fail.

Speaking at the Strategic Investment Conference in Orlando, Florida, Rosenberg pointed out that since 1950, there have been 13 cycles where the Federal Reserve tightened interest rates… and 10 of them ended in recession.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

German - US Bond Market Spreads and Sentiment / Interest-Rates / Germany

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Putting aside hard and soft data, yield differentials continue to command FX markets as the German-US 10 year yield spread breaks above its 200-day MA for the 1st time since August to hit -1.90%. The story, however, is not only in the break of the average, but also in the fact that the formation of the spread consists of higher lows and higher highs since the December bottom, which is the same formation for EURUSD, gold and most "anti-USD" instruments.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Ransomware Attack, Debt - You’d Think We’d Be A Little More Worried… / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2017

By: John_Rubino

By now everyone with an Internet connection is aware of the “ransomware” attack that shut down hundreds of thousands of computers over the weekend.

The fact that the onslaught is just beginning — as the military-grade hacking tools developed by the NSA and recently leaked are weaponized by hackers and released into the wild — should, you’d think, be worrisome.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, May 15, 2017

Bernanke’s Confetti Courage / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Michael_Pento

Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s book titled “The Courage to Act” is now available in paperback. This isn’t a surprise because, after all, his proclivity to print paper encompasses the totality of what his courage to act was all about. The errors in logic made in his book are too numerous to tackle in this commentary; so I’ll just debunk a few of the worst.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, May 15, 2017

The Fed’s Massive Debt Bubble in Picture Form / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Graham_Summers

As we’ve been outlining over the last few weeks, the auto-loan industry is increasingly looking like Subprime 2.0: the needle that will pop the credit bubble.

Since 2009, roughly 1/3 of all new auto-loans have been subprime. That in of itself is bad, but we are now discovering that the industry in general has a problem with fraud (shades of the Housing Bubble) as well.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 11, 2017

What’s the Fed Factor in US Treasury Bond Yields? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Harry_Dent

I hate taxes.

I don’t begrudge paying for a functioning government, it’s the dysfunctional favoritism that ticks me off.

This amorphous blob in Washington sucks dollars out of my wallet and then tells me not to worry about how it’s spent, even as I watch the government hand my dollars out like candy.

I’m still beside myself about General Motors.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, May 09, 2017

America Needs a Debt Cut Before a Tax Cut / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Michael_Pento

President Donald Trump has finally unveiled his broad blueprint for tax reform. Well, at least let’s call it a sketchy outline of one. It would take the top income tax rate for small businesses from 35% to 15%. Theoretically, a business that makes $500k in taxable income, which had been paying roughly $175k in Federal taxes, would then pay closer to $75k. This means our business in this example, which saved 100k in Federal taxes, would have to grow its taxable income to $1,166.666, or by 133% to provide the government with revenue neutrality.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 04, 2017

Debt is Financial Life – Nonsense! / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2017

By: DeviantInvestor

Examine the picture below. The global economy thrives on debt and credit. We purchase essential products using debt/credit. The U.S. dollar bill is a debt of the Federal Reserve. All debt based assets have counter-party risk.

The St. Louis Federal Reserve publishes data on “Total Debt Securities” in $ millions. Note the rapid rise since 1971 after President Nixon encouraged rapid devaluation of the dollar.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, April 29, 2017

Recall This US Bond Trader Chart? Here's What Happened / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

Our three recent Treasury Bond charts combine to show you trader sentiment, price action and important near-term turns and trends.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, April 27, 2017

Are UK Consumers Taking Too Much Debt? / Interest-Rates / UK Debt

By: Nicholas_Kitonyi

The UK lending market has benefited from the reduced lending rates after the interest rate was reduced to an historical low. The UK base interest rate was cut in half in August last year to 0.25% in a bid to stimulate economic growth and it has remained at this level for the last eight months. This affected the UK Prime Lending Rate, which fell to 1.25% from about 1.55% in July and has since remained fixed at this level.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

US Treasury Bond Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Ed_Carlson

TNX – the yield on the 10yr US Treasury note -  gained 0.22% last week closing at 22.37 but 14-day RSI remains below its own 20-dma; bearish. The break of support at 23.35 (now resistance) has opened a door for a return to 20.00.

The monthly chart below shows how the long-term trend line has turned back the rally in TNX on numerous occasions. However, as the monthly Coppock Curve failed to confirm the 2012 low during the 2016 test of that low we’ve probably seen the low of the +30yr decline in interest rates.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

The Fed Must Be Reading Our Work / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Rodney_Johnson

It’s too much of a coincidence. Fed officials must be reading our work.

OK, they don’t really have to be… but if they don’t, they should.

It’s not that we deserve credit for what comes next at the Fed, but I was glad to read the details last week in the nitty-gritty of the Fed’s minutes of its March meeting. (You would’ve had to have read it there; Fed chair Janet Yellen didn’t talk about it at all in her post-meeting press conference.)
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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 17, 2017

Fed Will Cause a 2008 Redux / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

Truth is a rare commodity on Wall Street. You have to sift through tons of dirt to find the golden ore. For example, main stream analysis of the Fed's current monetary policy claims that it will be able to normalize interest rates with impunity. That assertion could not be further from the truth.

The fact is the Fed has been tightening monetary policy since December of 2013, when it began to taper the asset purchase program known as Quantitative Easing. This is because the flow of bond purchases is much more important than the stock of assets held on the Fed's balance sheet. The Fed Chairman at the time, Ben Bernanke, started to reduce the amount of bond purchases by $10 billion per month; taking the amount of QE from $85 billion, to 0 by the end of October 2014.

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