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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Awareness of Fed Credibility Problems Going Mainstream / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MoneyMetals

The nation’s pre-eminent central planners just held their annual gathering at an exclusive resort just outside Jackson Hole, Wyoming and discussed how to interfere even more deeply in markets. In a speech entitled “The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit: Past, Present and Future,” Fed chair Janet Yellen outlined why zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), purchases of toxic mortgage securities, and monetization of Treasury debt just aren’t adequate. Officials must add negative interest rates (NIRP) and purchases of even more sketchy assets to their “toolkit.”

Yellen has spent more than a year floating the idea of negative rates, so it is no surprise she is hustling the ludicrous policy once again. In fact, very little of what she said Friday is new. It was the usual mess of contradictions.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Why the Convoluted Message From Yellen? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Gary_Tanashian

Why the tough talk out of one side of her mouth and ‘other policy tools’ language out of the other (ref. Yellen Lays Out Tools… )?  Oh, I don’t know.  Maybe it has something to do with this…

The stock market has merrily followed money supply aggregates upward since 2009.  When money supply decelerates the market corrects.  When money supply ramps upward the market ramps upward.  Money supply has been rolling over since 2014, which was not coincidentally when the first tremors began for the stock market in its recently completed top (that wasn’t).  From SlopeCharts

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

King of Debt vs. Queen of Deficits / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Michael_Pento

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the total deficit for fiscal 2016 will be $590 billion. This is $152 billion (34%) greater than the shortfall posted in fiscal year 2015. And by 2026 the deficit would be considerably larger as a share of the nation’s output (GDP) than its average over the past 50 years.

In addition to this, debt held by the public would rise significantly from its already high level, reaching 86% of GDP by 2026.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 29, 2016

President Obama To Leave $20 Trillion Debt Crisis For Clinton Or Trump / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: GoldCore

President Obama is set to leave a massive near $20 trillion debt crisis for his successor – be that Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

The U.S. national debt reached $19.5 trillion last week and has been increasing by roughly $1 trillion a year during his Presidency and during the so called “recovery” as the U.S. government continues to spend money like a drunken sailor.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Bond Guru Gary Shilling - The Bond Market Rally of a Lifetime / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

In 1981, as inflation and Treasury yields were screaming to new heights, my good friend Gary Shilling announced, “We’re entering the bond rally of a lifetime.” He was right. That bond rally is already 35 years old, and I think it will continue.

Gary also thinks the rally is still underway. He backs up that claim with a compelling case for Treasurys and for the “long bond” (the 30 year).

Gary recalls his famous public debate on stocks versus bonds with Professor Jeremy Siegel of Wharton, in 2006. This was just before the Great Recession kicked in and sent Treasury prices sky-high. Siegel remarked to the audience, “I don’t know why anyone in their right mind would tie up their money for 30 years for a 4.75% yield” (the then-yield on the 30-year Treasury).

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 22, 2016

Bank of Ireland to Charge for Placing Cash on Deposit / Interest-Rates / Negative Interest Rates

By: GoldCore

Deposits at Bank of Ireland are soon to face charges in the form of negative interest rates after it emerged on Friday that the bank is set to become the first Irish bank to charge customers for placing their cash on deposit with the bank.

This radical move was expected as the European Central Bank began charging large corporates and financial institutions 0.4% in March for depositing cash with them overnight.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 22, 2016

China Announces its’ new loan in International Reserve Asset (SDRs) / Interest-Rates / China Currency Yuan

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has received approval from the World Bank allowing its’ issuance of bonds which are denominated in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). The World Bank is the first entity to approve of it and consequently marks the launch of the SDR bond market of the worlds’ second-largest economy.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 18, 2016

4 Reasons Not to Buy Bonds Now / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: John_Mauldin

BY JARED DILLIAN : I try to be a long-term thinker and filter out all the short-term noise. That’s hard nowadays, because there is so much short-term noise!

Any one of these four things would be big news, especially in the dog days of summer. But all four?  It’s crazy out there.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 18, 2016

Low / Negative Interst Rate’s Legacy / Interest-Rates / Negative Interest Rates

By: Raymond_Matison

In all of global human history, interest rates have never been this low.  Indeed, Europe has trillions of Euro bonds yielding a negative interest rate, meaning that an investor pays for the privilege of having lent to a borrower with its attendant credit exposure, and agrees beforehand to get less in return than he originally “invested”. America’s fixed income yields have been declining for over thirty years, and now are also at record lows – hovering close enough to zero such that some expect negative rates to come to our domestic market in the not too distant future.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 18, 2016

The 45th Anniversary of The Most Destructive Event In Modern Monetary History / Interest-Rates / Financial Markets 2016

By: Jeff_Berwick

The US government, bankrupt yet again after another disastrous war of aggression, had its back pushed to the wall in 1971.

Up until that point, foreign central banks could redeem US dollars directly with the US Treasury in exchange for gold.  And, recognizing that the US was essentially bankrupt, foreign central banks, especially France, began to demand gold instead of the dollar.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, August 07, 2016

Banker Bunker Mentality, Big US Banks On The Brink / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The big US banks are dead, as in giant hollow reeds. Such has been the Jackass refrain for eight straight years. They are insolvent monsters and destroyers of wealth and capital. They are massive criminal enterprises. Events prove the case well. The Too Big to Fail policy has instead assured the wreckage and destruction of the USEconomy. Save the big banks, but ruin the capital base. The USGovt under the management of the banker cartel since the 9/11 event, which they orchestrated in a bold move, has systematically brought down the macro business sector, permitted the USDollar platforms to decay completely, and rigged the financial markets in every conceivable arena. The central bankers are running scared. The Jackass wishes they would all depart in exile, locate on a lovely Polynesian island, and eat each other, with the winners wearing their bones and teeth.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 04, 2016

What Student Debt Problem; Simple Solution ends the problem / Interest-Rates / Student Finances

By: Sol_Palha

A problem clearly stated is a problem half-solved. Dorothea Brande

The real issue is that there are college students that don’ want to work and want to go to the best colleges money can buy, and the parents are encouraging this. What happened to the day you went to the college you could afford, and you worked to pay for all of it or, at least, helped your parents.  The problem lies with the parents and the kids; the parents are encouraging this asinine behaviour.  Today’s generation believe that they are entitled to the best of the best without having to work for it.   College Graduates that are drowning in debt, but still refuse to give up on luxuries is a perfect example of this principle in action. Instead of tightening their belts, they continue to add to the debt and then cry wolf when everything starts to fall apart.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 04, 2016

Don’t Be So Sure That States Can’t Go Bankrupt / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

Our judicial system has a time-tested option for those who can’t pay their debts: bankruptcy. Individuals and businesses use it all the time.

The debtor submits itself to a court, which tries to reach the fairest possible settlement with creditors. It’s messy, but it usually works for the best.

Federal bankruptcy code permits cities, school districts, and other local governments to file bankruptcy.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, August 04, 2016

UK interest Rate PANIC CUT! As Banks Prepare to Steal Customer Deposits / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Today is the day when UK interest rates will be cut from 0.5% to probably 0.25%, there lowest levels for over 320 year history of the Bank of England. Which follows over 7 years of rates being held at 0.5% the duration of which has seen virtually ALL economists reveal their true level of ineptitude as they have collectively consistently forecast that UK Interest rates were always just about to head higher, that the start of a series of rate hikes was just months away, which not only never materialised but is now hit with the reality of a RATE CUT! And probably announce an additional QE of at least £50 billion to monetize UK government debt and generate artificial profits for the Bank of England's banking sector brethren.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 02, 2016

Beware: Central Bankers are Driving Us into the Dirt / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2016

By: Harry_Dent

One of the major triggers I’ve been warning about is already happening, even before we understand and/or admit that we are in a recession. Zero Hedge just picked up on an article from Jeff Cox at CNBC.

Global corporate debt now sits at a record $51 trillion and is poised to hit $75 trillion by 2020 – just four years away. If interest rates rise and the economy slows, it will be very hard for companies to roll these bonds over – and then we get what S&P Global Ratings is calling “Crexit.”
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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 02, 2016

What You Need to Know If You’re Exposed to Muni Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Rodney_Johnson

The housing bust was awful, particularly in Florida and other “sand states.” As the economy slowed, consumers lost their jobs, and when they couldn’t pay their mortgages, they then lost their homes.

Even though that wrenching period happened almost a decade ago, it will live in our memories for years to come. I can recall much of the pain, but also other aspects of the moment. Some people were desperate for the relief that came their way; others were using it as cover to game the system.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, August 02, 2016

The Yield Curve - 3 Big Stories Not Being Covered With Graham Mehl / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Andy_Sutton

It occurred to us as we were laying out the contents of this article that we should probably not assume certain things. This publication has a wide readership, from corporate CEOs to high school students. The former are looking for analysis, the latter to become educated. The topic we are going to tackle in this second installment is a complex one, so some introduction is in order. Therefore, this piece will consist of two parts: an opening introduction, a primer if you will, then the analysis will follow. If you are well-versed in interest rates, bonds, bond yields, and debt, you can probably skip the primer, although we’ve been surprised at the number of people who have subscribed to the misconceptions stated therein.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 01, 2016

Central Bankers Fighting An Unprecedented Global Economic Slowdown / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Gordon_T_Long

The mainstream news sources seem determined to ignore the extent of the global slowdown in trade. Whether exports, imports, industrial production or whatever your preferrred metric, the facts are undeniable. Nevertheless, the mainstream media chooses to refuse to cover it. It begs an obvious question of - why?

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Interest-Rates

Monday, August 01, 2016

Former Fed Chairman May Have Given Japan the Answer to Its Debt Problems / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2016

By: John_Mauldin

Japan just had its national elections. Voters there do not share the anti-establishment fever that grips the rest of the developed world. They gave Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his allies a solid parliamentary majority. Japanese are either happy with Abenomics or see no better option.

Abe may now have the backing he needs to change Japan’s constitution and its official pacifism policy. This would be less a sign of nationalism than a new economic stimulus tool. Defense spending is expected to more than double. This will give a big boost to Japan’s shipyards, vehicle manufacturing, and electronics industries.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, July 29, 2016

Retirees Are Risking Their Life Savings on Junk Bonds / Interest-Rates / Pensions & Retirement

By: John_Mauldin

Retirees and other investors are reaching farther and farther for yield. They’re piling into all sorts of increasingly risky investments. So, it should come as no surprise that credit spreads are shrinking between what in theory are risk-free investments and other investments.

My friend Danielle DiMartino Booth, formerly at the Dallas Fed, covers a range of topics affected by central-bank policies. I think she is going to be an increasingly visible force in the world of central bank critics.

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