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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, November 28, 2016

This Looming Debt Crisis Could Ruin Many / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2016

By: John_Mauldin

We must deal with the debt if we are going to survive . We have two options: Simply stop spending or grow the economy. “Stop spending” is easier said than done. And boosting growth is going to be difficult too.

Total debt this year rose by 6.8%, almost double our growth rate. Not the right direction. After eight years of the slowest economic recovery in history, growing our debt dramatically faster than we are growing our country—even when we include inflation.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, November 27, 2016

Europe Will Devalue Or Dissolve - Welcome To The Currency War / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Rubino

No rest for the wicked. With the shockwaves from Brexit and President Trump still reverberating around the world, the established order is bracing for more bad news. Next up is a December 4 Italian constitutional referendum that might end the reign of centrist prime minister Matteo Renzi and replace him with a bunch of anti-euro iconoclasts from the Brexit/Trump part of the spectrum.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, November 27, 2016

Italian Bank Collapse European Sovereign Bond Carnage, Criss-Crossed Fuses & Lit Bonfire / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2016

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Many are the potential fuses to be lit, which would create the conflagration, the massive bonfire of the bond vanities and bank charades. Many are the fuses lying around, all criss-crossed, all exposed, all overlapping each other in highly dangerous manner. If any single fuse is lit, then several will light and the detonation arrives. It is unavoidable since the financial world is so deeply interwoven. Never in modern history has the global financial structure been so badly weakened, so totally corrupted, so thoroughly undermined by control mechanisms, so intensely defended by sanctions even war. In 2007 and early 2008, the Jackass warned of a mortgage bust that would alter the global system forever. It happened with far reaching consequences which endure to this day.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 24, 2016

War On Cash Goes Global – India and Citibank In Australia / Interest-Rates / War on Cash

By: GoldCore

  • War On Cash Goes Global – India, Australia and Citibank
  • India shock cancellation of nation’s two highest-denomination notes
  • India effectively invalidates & removes 86% of cash from circulation
  • India sees “runs on banks” & severe financial difficulties
  • Citi to makes all Australian branches cashless
  • Australian pilot programme restricts 80% of payments on card
  • UBS proposes Australia eliminates $100 and $50 bills
  • What can we do about this?
  • Conclusion
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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Post-election Debt Mathematics / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: DeviantInvestor

The U.S. Presidential election is over. One candidate won, one lost, but the mathematics did not change.

Mathematics of What?

  1. US government debt has grown far more rapidly than GDP for decades. This is unsustainable.
  2. US government revenues increase about 4% per year while the official debt has grown at 9% per year, on average, since 1913. Official debt doubles in eight years regardless of which borrow and spend party and politicians are supposedly running the country and that is unsustainable.
  3. Official debt is currently about $20 trillion. Does $40 trillion in official debt sound plausible in the year 2024?
  4. How about $80 trillion in the year 2032?
  5. Worse, the debt goes astronomical if the financial and political elite choose hyperinflation.
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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Stock Market New All Tiime Highs & the Election Buried This HUGE Story / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

Stock Market Highs & the Election Buried This HUGE Story
Chart of the Day

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Reversal Interest Rates Are the Next Big Challenge for Central Banks / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: John_Mauldin

BY SAMUEL RINES : Negative and ultra-low interest rates have become the norm for the developed world. The phrases “lower for longer” and “new normal” are now accepted as facts rather than predictions. But, how low is too low?

For many developed world economies, rates remain low in order to combat stagnation as growth slows. Negative rates are a side effect of these deep, fundamental economic issues.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, November 19, 2016

Trump Prepares to Takeover Fed / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Mike_Whitney

In Donald Trump’s first four years as president, he will not only choose three judges for the Supreme Court, he’ll also pick five of the seven members on the Fed Board of Governors. It would be impossible to overstate the effect this is going to have on the nation’s economic future. With both houses of Congress firmly in the GOP’s grip, we could see the most powerful central bank in the world transformed into a purely political institution that follows the diktats of one man.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Trump's Mandate to Yellen: Print More Money or You're Fired! / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Michael_Pento

What kind of President will Donald Trump be? Will he restore America to its former position of greatness, or end up being feckless like a long list of his predecessors? That is yet to be determined.

However, what is clear now is if Donald Trump wants to avoid starting his tenure with an economic crisis similar to that of Mr. Obama he will need to put a lid on long-term interest rates rather quickly. And in order to do that he will have to convince a supposedly politically-agnostic Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, to not only refrain from further interest rates hikes but also to launch another round of long-term Treasury debt purchases known as Quantitative Easing (QE).

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Interest-Rates

Monday, November 14, 2016

Bond Market Bull Over or The Start of The Final Blow Off Top? / Interest-Rates / Bond Bubble

By: Plunger

Over a Trillion dollars has been vaporized in the bond market in just one week. The phrase "blood bath" is an understatement as the widows and orphans have been routed. This isn't supposed to happen in the the bond market. So is the great 33 year bond bull finally over and the deluge that we knew would ultimately come upon us? Not so fast chipmunk, is my reply and this is why. All great bull markets go through three complete phases. Phase I is the accumulation or stealth phase, phase II is the mark-up phase which lasts the longest and phase III is the blow off or mania phase. The NASDAQ and the oil bull markets exhibit provide us clean examples of these three phases in their 10 year bull runs which ended in crashes. Phase III is characterized by violent and deep yet short term corrections which shakeout all but the strongest hands. That is what the government bond market is undergoing in this recent violent move. First let's review those two bull markets in the NASDAQ and oil.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, November 12, 2016

Did U.S. Treasury Bonds Just Get Stumped by Trump? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

The answer to where T-Bonds are headed is not in the news headlines about Trump. It's in the Elliott wave pattern

On November 9, the United States woke to the biggest political shock since Harry Truman defeated "shoe-in" Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 U.S. presidential election.

For U.S. bond investors, the 2016 election has been head-spinning too.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 10, 2016

And Of Course, No One is Talking About the US National Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Rodney_Johnson

I’m beaten down.

Worn out.

Punch drunk.

I’m not moonlighting as a cage fighter. I’m a registered voter in a swing state.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, November 07, 2016

Thanks to Obamacare, US Government Debt Is Worse Than You Think / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

You’re probably aware that the US budget deficit jumped to $590 billion for fiscal 2016. What you might not know is that US government debt rose by $1.4 trillion last fiscal year. That difference between the deficit and debt increases is a huge number.

What did we spend that additional $800 billion on?

My friends Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Asset Management can answer that question and more. Using current CBO projections and the trend in off-budget debt, Lacy and Van estimate that US government debt could grow by an additional $13 trillion in the next 10 years (by 2025). That would put total debt at $33 trillion and push to 150% debt-to-GDP.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 27, 2016

The Next Big Shoe to Drop – Student Loans / Interest-Rates / Student Finances

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

More than 40 million young Americans carry federal and private student loan debt – amounting to over $1 trillion. Defaults are on the rise and the issue has grown to become a nasty wealth transfer mechanism, as well as sad example of the failure of finance in general.

This week, President Obama announced a new initiative framed as a way of addressing the issue. Sadly, it is far from the mark, and just one more indication that monetary masters are the real puppeteers.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

The Current Message of Yield Curves: Inflation or Deflation? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Gary_Tanashian

With the state of post-Op/Twist systemic dysfunction, there are no absolutes, but…

Generally, a rising yield curve (after years of Goldilocks and her favored declining curve) would signal changes in financial markets.  But it is not as simple as stating ‘the curve is rising… it’s bearish!’ or ‘the curve is rising… it’s bullish!’.  It is potentially both of those things and it will have different implications for different markets and asset classes.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Broken Central Banks: 4 Quick Pix / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The Western central bank franchise system is totally broken, totally insolvent, and totally corrupt. It invites the Gold Standard return. The entire financial system is built upon a debt-based monetary system. The debt saturation process has run its full course. The central bank heads have been covering the sovereign debt for the last five years, having rendered their balance sheets as ruined. Debt is at obscene levels, like $19.7 trillion for the USGovt. No debt limits are in place anymore, a signal that most likely it has already defaulted. A hidden game is underway, with control lost to the creditors, even as they attempt to salvage their debt holdings. The major central banks continue to manage badly the great game, where money is fake phony and a farce. A titanic battle is underway, where the Eastern nations are discarding their USTreasury Bonds, and doing so in tremendous volume while they set up the many platforms and pieces to the Gold Standard.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 24, 2016

Did a Secret Central Banking Cabal Just Turn AGAINST the US? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

Quietly and with little if any notice, foreign Central Banks have begun DUMPING US Debt.

Take a look at this chart. Does this look like a bull market to you? Because to me it looks like it could be the beginning of a panic sale.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

The Fed Has Made Another Massive Policy Error / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

I would argue that the Great Recession was a result of a massive monetary policy error. The Fed kept rates too low for too long, which—when coupled with lax or no regulation in the mortgage markets—resulted in a housing bubble and a crash. This then bled over to global markets.

I believe we are again suffering the effects of a massive monetary policy error. The error has already been committed, but we have just begun to endure the consequences.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 14, 2016

US T-Bill Rejection At Ports In Progress / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

World trade has fallen for the second quarter in a row. The decade of stagnation of industrial production in the United States, Japan, and European Union can be blamed on financial engineering, housing bubbles, war, and recently on destructive monetary policy in QE bond purchase program. It is not stimulus, but rather a destroyer of capital. The West contains several nations with heavy industrial emphasis, hardly advanced economies anymore. They risk a fall into the Third World from a generation of outsourcing, asset bubbles, and financial fraud, as soon as the new currency regime is installed as part of the financial RESET.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 14, 2016

Our Current Keynesian Nightmare / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

It is not an understatement to say that the economic policy of the United States since 2008 has been purely Keynesian. Interest rates are near zero and the national debt stands at nearly $20 trillion. This is a direct result of applying the policy prescription recommended in Keynes’ General Theory. One day, his book will likely sit next to Karl Marx’s Communist Manifesto as works that generated dangerously false notions of reality with disastrous consequences.

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