Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond MarketThe analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, May 16, 2016
The Caribbean island of Puerto Rico is in the throes of a debt crisis that recently reached a breaking point when it missed a $422 million bond payment due May 2nd. When asked in a subsequent interview about the likelihood of making future payments on the remaining $72 billion of debt, Puerto Rican Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla noted that the U.S. territory “does not anticipate having the money.”Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 14, 2016
For years the Fed has been lying about inflation.
There are many methods of doing this, but the simplest was to use a “measure” of inflation that did not actually measure inflation at all.
This is the famous Consumer Price Index of CPI. It is meant to measure inflation, but ignores obvious costs of living items like food and energy usage.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 06, 2016
Hi its Friday May 6th 2016 so it's the first Friday of the month and usually
that means non-farm payrolls in the us- or the jobs data and yeah was
disappointing number for the you s economy jobs rose by a hundred non-farm
payrolls rose by a hundred and sixty thousand I was expected to be above
$200,000 $205,000 employment rate which is totally fictitious number status 5%
to reel in double double digits the other thing that's pretty bad for the economy and it shows that the USA
economy not only us' but you know the Western world economies are you know
haven't recovered from the collapsible wait prime age workers this is a story
Thursday, May 05, 2016
For those still wondering why the global economy is struggling, the simple answer is "It's the debt, stupid."
We will return to the global economy in a moment, but first consider the plight of Greece.
A detailed study shows that of €215.9 billion in Greek aid, only €9.7 billion went to Greece. The rest went to banks and other creditors.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 04, 2016
TNX (the yield on the 10 year, US Treasury note) fell 3.65% to close at 18.19 on the 30-dma last week. Look for a bounce with equities early this week but don’t expect it to be sustained as the daily Coppock is still high enough to expect a top, not a bottom. Resistance is near 20.00. Look for support at Friday’s close. A break of this level opens the door for a return to the April low near 17.00.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 29, 2016
Fed's Kaplan: Brexit to Factor in US June Interest Rate Decision / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan spoke with Bloomberg Television's Betty Liu, Mark Barton, and Michael McKee today. He discussed his expectations for a consumer rebound, his support of a rate hike if GDP and jobs data come together, and how the U.K. Brexit debate will factor into the Fed's next interest rate decision.
On how much Brexit will influence the Fed, Kaplan said: "It'll be a factor...Our meeting is the 15th and 8 days later is the vote. I'm going to have to make an assessment on June 15 what the likelihood is, and right now, it's a little bit unclear -- or it's unclear. Forget a little bit, it's unclear. And if it's still unclear on June 15, that's going to be a factor."Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 28, 2016
This obsession with taper talk – the interest rate story – is simple, but strange. Indeed, it is misguided – wrongheaded. So, why the obsession? It is, in part, the result of a Keynesian hangover. The Keynesians focus on interest rates. The mainstream macro model that is widely in use today is referred to as a “New Keynesian” model. The thrust of monetary policy in this model is entirely captured by changes in current and expected interest rates (the price of money). Money is nowhere to be found, however.
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Wednesday, April 27, 2016
BlackRock’s Fink: Fed to Raise Interest Rates by Quarter Point ‘at Best’ / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
Larry Fink, Chairman and CEO at BlackRock, spoke with Erik Schatzker on 'Bloomberg <GO>' this morning.
Fink said governments need to embark on fiscal stimulus to boost the economy: "If we continue to have what I would call a dependency on monetary policy worldwide, I think it is very grim. We are harming savers worldwide with low and negative interest rates." He said monetary policy has "run out of runway" and called the Bank of Japan's negative rate policy an "outright mistake."
He said the Fed will raise interest rates "at best" by another quarter point this year because of weak corporate earnings and uncertainty about the global economy: "I would probably lean more towards a 25 basis point increase. Let's see what happens with the Spanish elections in June, the Brexit elections in June, how the U.S. economy performs in the second quarter. And importantly, what is the consumer's mood into the primaries and after the primaries?"Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Transcript Excerpt:Hi it's a Tuesday April 26 2016 I'm gonna be talking about a subject a
little bit technical but I think people need to know about this and it's to do
with central banks and you know what the bond markets so in my opinion central
banks they planted or clean been planting the seeds of a bond market
meltdown with the zero interest rate policy and the negative interest rate
policy and by the bond markets I mean government bond markets which are
supposedly risk-free assets are not of course and then corporate bonds you know
all kinds of ratings you know junk bonds but our focus on the bond market
government bond market because that's the biggest market in the world so the
policy observed with zero interest rates implemented through quantitative easing
and officially set raids has resulted in the bond market but never seen before in
the history of financial markets basically the only way to get interest
rates were is to buy bonds because the ruling bond bond prices and yields is
that the bond price goes up goes down if the deal goes up ...
Monday, April 25, 2016
USB futures are lingering at their lows from Friday. The Cycles Model suggests a Trading cycle low may be made at any time in the next 72 hours. What may follow is a ramp to the average target of the Bullish Flag formation.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 25, 2016
In 1977 the Eagles spoke to us about “Hotel California.” Lyrics are here.
A few lines from the song …
“On a dark desert highway, cool wind in my hair…
Up ahead in the distance I saw a shimmering light…
Then I was thinking to myself this could be Heaven or this could be Hell…Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 20, 2016
End Of The Petrodollar: Saudi Arabia Threatens To Dump $700b In Treasuries If Blamed For 9/11 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
Every day a new major piece of news comes out showing a system that is on the verge of collapse… and a planned shift to a new global order. In the last two weeks alone, all of this has occurred:Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 18, 2016
Personal loans have become increasingly competitive over the last few years with considerable rate cuts resulting in some of the lowest rates ever seen. However, it now appears that some providers can no longer sustain such low prices, so rates are once again on the rise.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 18, 2016
Following the unconventional monetary policy of negative interest rates, central banks are now considering an even more desperate measure: “helicopter money.” Milton Friedman is credited with this idea:
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Let us suppose now that one day a helicopter flies over this community and drops an additional $1,000 in bills from the sky, which is, of course, hastily collected by members of the community. Let us suppose further that everyone is convinced that this is a unique event which will never be repeated.
Wednesday, April 13, 2016
Janet Yellen Meets With Obama In Emergency Meetings As Crises Erupt Worldwide / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2016
The Credit Suisse Fear Barometer just hit an all-time high as reports circulated through the alternative media that Barack Obama discussed the imposition of martial law when he and Vice President Joe Biden met with Yellen on Monday in an “emergency meeting.”
The reports may be exaggerated but not the crisis-like feel of the meetings. This was reportedly a first: having the president and VP meeting directly with the Fed head. Does it have something to do with the “survival of the government” at a time when the US banking system may be facing a general default? According to some reports: “Members of the House and Senate are said to have been ‘up all night’ in discussions and meetings; with floods of phone calls back and forth. ”Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
Exposing tax dodgers is a worthy endeavor, but the "limited hangout" of the Panama Papers may have less noble ends, dovetailing with the War on Cash and the imminent threat of massive bail-ins of depositor funds.
The bombshell publication of the "Panama Papers," leaked from a Panama law firm specializing in shell companies, has triggered both outrage and skepticism. In an April 3 article titled "Corporate Media Gatekeepers Protect Western 1% From Panama Leak," UK blogger Craig Murray writes that the whistleblower no doubt had good intentions; but he made the mistake of leaking his 11.5 million documents to the corporate-controlled Western media, which released only those few documents incriminating opponents of Western financial interests. Murray writes:Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
One Chart Reveals Fed's True Intent; Wreck Havoc on The Middle Class / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
"Crises refine life. In them, you discover what you are." ~ Allan K. Chalmers
What strikes one immediately is that the Fed has been creating money hand over fist; one hand they create money, with the other hand they buy assets and put it on their books, all looks well until you realize this is something called monetization of debt. Paper buying more paper and in most nations this leads to hyperinflation and a currency collapse. However as the Dollar is the world reserve currency. The Fed can magically create money out of thin air and use this newly created money to pay bills and or prop up markets as is currently the case.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 11, 2016
"A great calamity is as old as the trilobites an hour after it has happened." ~ Oliver Wendell Holmes
Greed and recklessness continue to govern the markets; nothing was learned from the 2008 financial crisis. Hence, history is destined to repeat itself, and this might occur a lot faster than most anticipate. Fitch states that Subprime Auto bond delinquencies are at a 20 year high.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 07, 2016
Bullard - Fed Reserves the Right to Change U.S. Interest Rate Policy at Any Time / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard spoke with Bloomberg Radio's Kathleen Hays today on Bloomberg Radio & Television. While Bullard said he "didn't want to prejudge" whether the committee could act in April, the St. Louis Fed official said last month's employment report showed "continuing improvement" in the labor market.
Bullard said the Fed reserves the right to change policy at any time: "Not only have we moved at all kinds of different meetings, we've actually had inter-meeting meetings, special meetings, and moved at those meetings. So you can do a lot of things. You know, I'm not saying we're I'm planning on that or anything, but the Committee certainly reserves the right to make a move at any time... We debate at all meetings. I think all meetings are live meetings. There's no other way to think about it."Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 02, 2016
Wall Street is Coo-Coo for CoCo Bonds - Learn why these new bonds are such risky instruments / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
The co-editor of our monthly Elliott Wave Financial Forecast newsletter tells you about the emergence of the so-called CoCo bonds, one of the hottest new derivative-backed instruments on Wall Street.
Listen as Peter explains what differentiates them from regular bonds -- and why they're so risky to own.Read full article... Read full article...