Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, April 07, 2024
The Fed is becoming increasingly divided on interest rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Submissions
Powell reaffirms multiple rate cuts are on the table, but his peers thinks we’ll be lucky to get one this year
The Fed's officials can’t seem to get their stories straight.
On April 3, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed his expectations for multiple rate cuts this year, shrugging off the recent uptick in inflation.
Sunday, March 31, 2024
Here's a Dirty Little Secret: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Is Still Loose / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: MoneyMetals
Everybody wants to know when the Federal Reserve is going to declare victory over price inflation and begin loosening monetary policy.
The real question is - when are they going to make monetary policy tight again?
Because despite all the worry about high interest rates, monetary policy remains relatively loose.
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Monday, March 25, 2024
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: MoneyMetals
The Federal Reserve didn’t do anything at its March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, but Jerome Powell & Company had plenty to say.
The Fed’s dovish rhetoric sent a wave of relief through the markets and drove stocks to yet another all-time high.
People would probably be wise to remember that saying isn’t doing.
Monday, March 11, 2024
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Richard_Mills
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is core PCE, which stands for Personal Consumption Expenditures index. This inflation gauge, published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), doesn’t include food and energy, because prices for these two categories tend to be volatile.
When the latest PCE numbers came out on Feb. 29, they showed January headline PCE was 2.4%, year on year, while core PCE was 2.8%.
Remember, the Fed’s targeted inflation rate is 2%. Inflation needs to be falling to somewhere close to 2%, for the Fed to consider lowering interest rates, having raised them 11 times since spring 2022.
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Monday, March 11, 2024
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Kelsey_Williams
There are two reasons the Fed manipulates interest rates. Before we talk about those reasons, though,it is important to understand that the Fed does not actually control interest rates. Interest rates are set in the bond market. Buyers and sellers (traders) bid for and offer bonds for sale. When a buyer and seller agree on a price, the trade is finalized. The specific price, in conjunction with the face value of the bond (always $1000) and the stated coupon rate attached to the bond (and the length of time until the bond matures for yield to maturity) factor into the formula which determines the current yield, or what might be called the bond’s current interest rate.
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Saturday, March 09, 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
An opportunist trade to capitalise on the bond market blood bath of 2023,, objective for about a 50% return over 2 years with my original analysis timed to coincide with the bond market bottom - 7th Aug 2023 https://www.patreon.com/posts/inflation-bond-87342150
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Friday, March 01, 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The current Fed Funds rate is 5.25% with he market expectations for the cuts to commence March 2023, though the market has been wrong for the whole of 2023 when Fed rate cuts were always seen as starting some 6 months into the future! In reality it does not matter when the Fed cuts rates because the Fed FOLLOWS the market rates not sets them. And the market rates as evidenced by bond yields has been falling for the past few months.
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Monday, February 05, 2024
US Exponential Budget Deficit / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US Congress Budget Office report projects the US deficit as a percentage of GDP being on an explosive trend trajectory which is as a function of the US government borrowing money to spend on consumption resulting in an ever interest payments and debt mountain. Folks we are looking at an out of control debt spiral, as interest on debt continues to result in the printing of even more new debt.
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Sunday, February 04, 2024
Watch Consumer Spending to Know When the Fed Will Cut Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Richard_Mills
The probability of interest rate cuts has many market participants pondering whether 2024 will bring a bull market for precious metals.
Gold has held up quite well despite the Fed’s tightening cycle, gaining 13% in 2023.
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Friday, December 01, 2023
The Bond Trade / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bond Markets look like they have bottomed.
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Saturday, November 18, 2023
Biden Bizarrely Brags About Lower Budget Deficits as US Federal Debt Skyrockets / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: MoneyMetals
The more things change in Washington, the more they stay the same.
Under the new leadership of House Speaker Mike Johnson, Congress passed a stopgap funding bill on Tuesday to once again avert a government shutdown. It was quickly approved by the Senate on Wednesday, then signed into law by President Joe Biden.
Like the last one, this latest bipartisan budget scheme includes no spending cuts. So once again, deficit hawks are left feeling betrayed – not to mention alarmed at the country’s worsening fiscal trajectory.
Friday, November 03, 2023
US Bond Market Chaos to Increase by March 2024 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
The major issue with the bond market right now is the overwhelming amount of bond issuance combined with the notable absence of the usual buyers. In other words, the illiquidity is already causing U.S. sovereign debt to trade like a microcap penny stock. This dysfunctional trading environment should become exponentially worse by the end of Q1 2024.The U.S. national debt is now $33.5T, and the interest on that debt is $712b so far this year. That interest expense is set to double over the next few years as our debt is rolling over at much higher interest rates. Interest payments equal to 17% of all Federal revenue and should easily jump to 35% of all income very soon. The deficits will be much greater when the recession arrives, as the automatic economic stabilizers kick in, just as revenue also collapses. Entitlements and debt service payments will equal 100% of all revenue by 2040 at the very latest. At that point, there will be no room for any other government spending. Our bond market is fracturing, and it is becoming an existential crisis for our financial system. What else would you expect when the nation’s annual deficit is 45% of our revenue, and that is adding on each year to the national debt, which is an incredible 771% of annual federal income!
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Saturday, October 28, 2023
The Bond Trade / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As expected the four bond funds have been gravitating towards bear market lows and thus offering an opp to accumulate, I am now approx 55% invested.
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Tuesday, October 10, 2023
How to Capitalise on the UK and US Bond Markets Blood Bath of 2023 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is the final part of my extensive analysis Inflation Bond Fire of the Vanities Breeds Opportunity that was first made available to Patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $5 per month, lock it in now at $5 as this will soon rise to $7 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
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Monday, October 09, 2023
Investing in UK Bond ETFs - -GLTL and 3GIL / Interest-Rates / Investing 2023
By: Nadeem_Walayat
GLTL.L - £39 - UK Gilts 15+Yr
UK bonds have been obliterated, portfolios built up in bond funds over the past 10 years have been wiped out! Now you know why I have avoided bonds. Pittance in return during their bull market followed by a spectacular collapse, all whilst the lemmings encouraged stock investors to seek safety in bonds! This bond fund has COLLAPSED BY 60% off its high of £82! Imagine those who had parked the bulk of their cash in such funds by following the advice of FA's! Only discovering the catastrophe when they get their annual statements, A lot of TV's will have had remotes thrown at them! This is why there is no FREE LUNCH! It is YOUR MONEY it is upto YOU to DO THE WORK and understand what you are invested in else PAY THE PRICE of a 60% wipeout in what is supposed to be an ultra safe low volatility asset! When the exact opposite is true! If you lost similar on UK bonds then it's your fault for being LAZY! DO THE WORK!
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Monday, October 09, 2023
Why You Should Expect a Once-in-a-Lifetime Debt Crisis / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: EWI
U.S. credit card debt surpasses $1 trillion
On a national level, a debt crisis occurs when a country is unable to pay back its government debt. This might result from government spending exceeding tax revenues for an extended period.
On an individual level, a crisis can result from too little income and too much debt -- that simple. This sometimes means defaulting on a car loan, for example, or even declaring bankruptcy.
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Sunday, October 08, 2023
US Bond Market Opportunity - IBTL.L $279- US Treasury 20+yr / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
IBTL.L $279- US Treasury 20+yr - US Equiv TLT ETF
Peaked at $523, collapsed to it's recent low of near 50% to $276, imagine all those who swallowed the financial advisors and media sales pitch to be 60% in bonds because they are 'lower risk' then stocks! This is HORRIFIC! MORE THAN DOUBLE THE RISK FOR A FRACTION OF THE RETURN OF STOCKS! HORRIFIC! Still it gives a higher volatility potential to accumulate into right now. Potential upside over 2-4 years is for $422 for a 52% on the current price!
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Sunday, October 08, 2023
US Bond Market Opportunity - IBTM.L £135.8 - US Treasury 7-10Yr / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This bond fund is down 29% from it's high with potential upside target of £175 for a 27% gain over a target 2-4 years, so a lower / risk lower return component of the portfolio. I've been accumulating since £139 with limit orders ever £1 lower, as well as timed based buys.
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Sunday, October 01, 2023
UK and US Inverted Yield Curves and Bond Funds / Interest-Rates / Inverted Yield Curve
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yield Curves
At the late 2021 peak of the stock market the US short end yield was zero, long end (20 year) at about 2%. so the yield curve was normal. By the time of the bear market low was starting to invert, with the short end 3.5% vs long end 3.8%, fast forward to day we have the short end at 5.5%, Whilst most recent yield action has seen the short end and the long end nudge higher, hence offering an opportunity to accumulate near the bond markets lows.
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Sunday, October 01, 2023
Investing in UK and US Bonds / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Nadeem_Walayat
And we arrive out our final destination, one of where doom and gloom prevails, most fear much higher BOND market interest rates! Where we have the likes of Bill Ackman literally announcing he is shorting US bonds AFTER they have fallen! Where were they a year go when that was the time to short bonds?
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