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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, January 26, 2009

Treasury Bonds 5 Years of Interest Destroyed in 6 Weeks! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Weiss writes: Last month, investors from all over the world — spooked by the debt crisis — flocked to buy long-term U.S. Treasury bonds.

They bought U.S. bonds with money earned from China's export boom. They scooped up bonds with money gleaned from the savings of millions of Japanese families … with government money … oil money … even drug money.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, January 26, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bonds Expected to Bounce After Sharp Sell-off / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market appears to be settling down into a trading range after the sharp rally during the last 2 months of 2008. The Long Bond traded to its lowest level in nearly 2 months. My favoured scenario is that the market recovers a bit during the next 2 weeks and then it trades lower. Before that happens, traders need to deal with record size 2 and 5 Year Treasury Note auctions early in the week.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 22, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Forecast 2009 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe explosive long T-bond rally of November and December 2008 following deep U.S. interest rate cuts towards ZERO appears to have come to an end as treasury bonds broke below the most recent low. Therefore this analysis seeks to determine if the bond bubble is about to burst and how bonds could trend during the next 5 months of 2009.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Are Inflation Proof TIPS Breathtakingly Cheap? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInflation backed securities have been on a good run since November. Some still suggest that TIPS Are "Breathtakingly Cheap" .
At a time when central banks are attempting to prevent deflation, the hottest investments in the government bond market are securities that protect debt holders against rising consumer prices.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

UltraShort TBT ETF Benefiting from U.S. Treasuries Decline / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe long end of the bond market, and the TLT's (Barclay's 20+ Year T-bond, ETF), are getting hurt today, despite a climbing US dollar. The TBT's (Proshares Ultrashort T-bond, ETF) is benefiting from the price action.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Treasury Bonds Are the Key in 2009 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn 2008, the market that was the trigger for other markets was the currency market. The bottom in the dollar led to a peak in commodities and helped spur massive deleveraging and selling of various holdings. For certain, the increasing strength of the Yen also caused great damage to the global economy and global capital markets. There were only a handful of places to hide, free of volatility and immediate risk. Either you owned government bonds, the dollar or the yen. Gold advanced in 2008, though with extreme volatility compared to other safe-havens.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Credit Crisis Explained: History of Debt Bubbles and Long-term Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is a reason I call this column Outside the Box. I try to get material that forces us to think outside our normal comfort zones and challenges our common assumptions. And this week's letter from Hoisington Investment Management Company does just that. Let me give you two quotes to pique your interest: "Monetary policy works by creating the environment for a renewed borrowing and lending cycle. This cycle would require that the debt to GDP ratio, which is already at a record level, grow even higher. Would such an outcome really be that desirable when the controlling problem of the U.S. economy is too much improperly financed debt? If the Fed were able to engender an increase in the debt to GDP ratio, this might merely serve to postpone the reckoning of the current debt levels while laying the foundation for an even more vicious unwinding down the road.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, January 19, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Market Enters 2009 Trading Range / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market appears to be settling down into a trading range after the sharp rally during the last 2 months of 2008. The Long Bond essentially recovered the losses from the previous week. The financial sector continues to unravel and the effects are translating into massive problems for the global economy.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 15, 2009

The Trading Opportunity of 2009 Shorting U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn a previous post on long term Treasury bonds, I reviewed some of the technical factors that have me bearish. "So it is highly likely, from this perspective, that Treasury bonds will be an under performing asset class over the next 12 months. But more importantly, will this market top lead to an investing opportunity (i.e., by shorting Treasury bonds)? In other words, will the market top lead to a secular trend change in Treasury bonds?"

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 15, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bond Bubble in Trouble? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Brady_Willett

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf you have not yet read about the ominous U.S. Treasury bubble (which has been around for awhile ), here is recent a recap:

“Risk-free return” is the standard tag attached to the government's solemn obligations. An investor I know, repulsed by prevailing government yields, has a timelier description – “return-free risk”.James Grant – December 4, 2008

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Credit Crisis Contraction Gaining Positive Traction / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn order to gauge the progress being made to unclog credit markets and restore confidence in the world's financial system, I monitor a range of financial spreads and other measures. By perusing these, as summarized in this “Credit Crisis Watch” review, one can ascertain to what extent the various central bank liquidity facilities and capital injections are having the desired effect.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Ultra-Short Treasury Bond ETF Heading Sharply Higher / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBelow is what I wrote about the ProShares UltraShort 20-year T-Bond ETF (AMEX: TBT) exactly 24 hours ago, which appears to have unfolded pretty close to expectations. If the pattern continues to unfold as I expect, the TBT should hold between 39.00 and 38.50 ahead of a potent upleg that continues the advance off of the 12/18 low at 35.51.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Breakpoint for the Global Monetary System / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System

By: Dr_Krassimir_Petrov

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCHAOS & ORDER - The global monetary system is at a critical juncture. It is fast approaching a breakpoint. We take a philosophical worldview based on chaos theory that considers the evolution of seemingly stable complex systems reaching a bifurcation point, where the whole system rather unpredictably either “explodes” or “implodes” with a lightning speed. The transition is perceived as “chaotic” – the old order collapses and a new order is established. We think that the global monetary system approaches bifurcation – the breakpoint.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, January 12, 2009

Bond Market Plunges as Yields Move Sharply Higher / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market traded off for 2 weeks after 8 consecutive weeks of substantial gains. The pullback was sharp, but insignificant relative to the magnitude of the unprecedented move that the long bond futures made over the past 2 months. As expected, once the yearend buying demand was out of the way, the bong bond cracked in a significant fashion. Last week the market faced the same tug of war that is likely to dominate the market going forward: supportive fundamental news countered by increasing supply concerns. During the first full trading week of the year, the bears won the battle in spite of relatively successful Treasury Note auctions.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 09, 2009

The Fed’s U.S. Treasuries Bubble Trouble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA few weeks ago when the Fed announced a strategy designed to bring down long-term interest and home mortgage rates through unlimited Treasury bond purchases, government debt staged a spectacular rally. To the unschooled market observer, the spike may be difficult to understand. After all, why would the value of Treasury bonds rise while their underlying credit quality is deteriorating faster than Bernie Madoff’s social schedule? The move is actually a perfect illustration of the tried and true Wall Street strategy of “buy the rumor and sell the fact”.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 09, 2009

U.S. Debt Crisis 2009, What must our Creditors be Thinking? / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Chris_Galakoutis

I read an article recently about problem gambling. You can't help but notice all the poker on television these days. Gambling, lotteries, and all forms of speculation become more popular in inflationary times, as more people have difficulty making ends meet. Problem gambling has been known to strain relationships, interfere with responsibilities at home and work, and lead to financial catastrophe, as more good money is thrown after bad.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 08, 2009

UK Interest Rate Cut to New All Time Low of 1.5% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Bank of England cut UK interest rates earlier today by 0.5% to 1.5%, the lowest that the base rate has been in the BoE's 315 year history. The series of rate cuts are a belated panic response to the UK economy plunging over the edge of a cliff that looks set to endure GDP contraction of 3% this year which is worse than any 12 month period since World War 2. Sterling rallied from near record lows against the Euro buoyed by a less than expected cut as many market commentators had expected rates to be cut by 1% today.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 08, 2009

U.S. Treasury Bills, Can you hear the Bond Market POP!? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Daniel_Smolski

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleKeynesian capitalism continues to bring with it a saga of never ending bubbles. In just the past decade, we have been faced with the internet bubble bursting of 2000 and a massive real estate bubble that has brought the American economy to its knees. All are examples of a gross misallocation of resources caused by an excess money supply searching for home. The recent credit crunch has provided us with an opportunity to deflate and wipe away all unnecessary liquidity but the Federal Reserve, along with their posy of world bankers, have chosen instead to attempt to reflate a balloon that has already burst. Turning on all the world's liquidity taps has thus far proven to be working. We have beaten down the “evil” that is deflation and we look forward to an era of continued inflation. Inflation that will, undoubtedly, spiral out of control and potentially lead to a period of hyper-inflation.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

Your Country Needs You to Buy Government Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"Are you 100% American? Prove it! Buy US government bonds..." - Poster from the US Treasury promoting the Third Liberty Loan, 1918

THE BRITISH PRIME MINISTER, David Lloyd George, joked in 1915 that it was Britain's political and financial stability which would always enable it to raise "the last million".

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

U.S. Dollar Dead Bounce Ends, Treasury Bond Bubble Begins to Dissipate / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe marquee line best describing the past two to three months has been that the Dollar Death Dance has been fueled by failure of US banks & corporations, along with sponsored assaults against speculative hedge funds. The climate has changed from liquidation and bankruptcies, obviously steered and exploited by the Powerz, toward more legitimate attempts to have a recovery initiative take root across the landscape, It is fast approaching a wasteland. The most vivid signal of market manipulation, intended to benefit the USGovt borrowing costs, and designed to promote the totally false notion of a Flight to Safety, has been the USTreasury bubble.

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