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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 04, 2008

UK Interest Rates Forecast to Crash to 1% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGordon Browns government having abandoned all of the fiscal rules that it once prided itself on religiously following, is now hell bent on kick starting the UK economy in advance of the looming May 2010 general election deadline. The steady as she goes economic policy has been replaced by the panicking 'unprecedented action's' economic policy and in that having rested away control of UK interest setting from the Bank of England in all but name, UK interest rates are now set to be the latest to take a crash course towards an unprecedented level of just 1%.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 03, 2008

Central Banks Open the Money Printing Floodgates to fight Deflation / Interest-Rates / Money Supply

By: Gary_Dorsch

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn the early 1980's, the Federal Reserve's headlines figures for the M1, M2, and M3 money supply aggregates flashed at the top of trader's radar screens, and jolted US T-bill rates by 50-basis points or bond yields by 30-points within minutes. Inflation was raging at a 10.7% annualized rate, and repeated attempts to cure it had failed. Former Fed chief Paul A. Volcker was doggedly pursuing a radical monetary policy that led to skyrocketing interest rates and two back-to-back recessions.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 02, 2008

Search For Stimulus In a Zero Interest Rate Policy World / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCentral bankers everywhere are Looking for Tools in a Zero Interest-Rate World .

The Swiss National Bank is becoming the first central bank in Europe to learn what it's like to live in a zero interest-rate world.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 02, 2008

U.S. Fed Monetizing Debt by Printing Money / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Axel_Merk

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDeflation won't happen here; at least not if Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman's Ben Bernanke's plan pans out. Deflation is considered a persistent decline in prices of goods and services; in a speech in 2002 , Bernanke outlined the steps he would take if the U.S. ever faced the threat of deflation. Deflation is suffocating anyone holding debt as the debt burden becomes more difficult to finance with shrinking income; in contrast, inflation bails out those who have a lot of debt. In our assessment, fighting deflation is the Fed's top priority now; the latest minutes from the Fed's Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting state:

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 02, 2008

U.S. Treasuries Massive Rally as Helicopter Ben Fires Buyback Bazooka / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTreasuries staged yet another massive rally today as Helicopter Ben imitates Paulson and pulls out his own bazooka. Inquiring minds are noting that Treasury Yields Drop to Record Lows as Bernanke Cites Buybacks .

Treasuries rose, pushing yields to record lows, as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank may purchase Treasuries and target long-term interest rates to combat the deepening recession.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 01, 2008

UK Government Urging Banks to Lend / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mike_Shedlock

Complete silliness reigns in the UK as Prime Minister Brown, Chancellor Darling, and BOE Governor Mervyn King Urge Banks To lend .

U.K. house prices dropped to the lowest level in almost three years in November as banks starved the property market of credit, Hometrack Ltd. said.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, November 29, 2008

U.S. Treasury Bull Market Living on Borrowed Time / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI must confess that the pattern in the bond market is a bit surprising. Yield on the 30-year T-bond fell to a low of 3.48% on Friday, which helped to propel the Lehman 20+ Year T-Bond (AMEX: TLT) to a new high of 106.30. Who exactly feels comfortable buying a 30-year piece of paper at less than 3.50% is a mystery in general, but specifically at THIS time, after all of the stimulus and rescue plans, the incredible 24/7 use of the printing presses, and during a period when equities are staging an impressive rally (so far).

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Interest-Rates

Friday, November 28, 2008

Gold and UK interest Rates as Proxy for Global Price of Money / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"...The nine decades of gold simply need not apply. Because there's just too much money chasing too many votes to make such a limiting system appeal..."

CENTRAL BANKING used to be easy, back when there was so little to do. You raised interest rates to attract an inflow of gold, supporting your currency on the foreign exchanges and restraining new credit at home. Or you cut interest rates to deter savers, and give the economy a shot of cheap money.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, November 28, 2008

Credit Crisis Watch- LIBOR Eases Whilst UK Spread Soars on Sovereign Debt Risks / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor the world's financial system to start functioning normally again, it is imperative that confidence in the credit markets be restored. In order to gauge the progress being made to unclog credit markets, I regularly monitor a range of financial sector spreads and other measures. By perusing these one can ascertain to what extent the various central bank liquidity facilities and capital injections are having the desired effect.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

LIBOR Still at Credit Crisis Extremes as Banks Refusing to Lend / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) continues to fall from credit quake extremes, today falling to below 100 basis points (3 month) above the base interest rate that was cut in a panic move to 3% earlier this month. However as the below graph illustrates a 1% spread is still uncomfortably near credit crisis extremes and therefore implies that the banks are still reluctant to lend to one another which was confirmed by the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King who stated that extreme measures may be necessary to force the banks to lend again which in the final analysis implies nationalisation of the whole of british retail banking sector.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, November 24, 2008

Bond Yields Breakout to New Multi-year Lows / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe bond market convincingly broke out to new multi decade lows on yields. As the dismal economic data just continues to get worse, Treasury securities ironically remain the safe haven of last resort. Once the Quarterly Treasury auctions were out of the way, traders got the green light to boldly take the US Long Bond Futures to levels where no Long Bond contract has gone before! Risk remains the dirtiest of all dirty four letter words, so government bonds are the best place to hide.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Credit Crisis Persists as Bond Spreads Widen / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReuters: Financials need at least $1 trillion - analyst
“The US financial system still needs at least $1 trillion to $1.2 trillion of tangible common equity to restore confidence and improve liquidity in the credit markets, Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Paul Miller said.

“Eight financial companies - Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, AIG, Bank of America Corp and GE Financial - are in greatest need of capital, he said.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, November 23, 2008

U.S. Treasuries, the Final Asset Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Eric_deCarbonnel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSo far, the credit crisis has produced four asset bubbles as investors shifted from one asset class to the next. Three of these bubble have burst, but the last one, US treasuries, remains.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, November 22, 2008

Citibank Seeks More Bailout Cash as Corporate Bonds Crash to 20% Yields / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: John_Mauldin

  • Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLeverage Is an 8 Letter Word
  • If Loans Are So Cheap, Why Don't They Sell?
  • Deflation and Helicopters: Time for a Review
  • Commercial Property Loans Start to Haunt the Banks
  • Warren Makes a Bet

Leverage is an eight-letter word, which the markets now regard as twice as bad as the two four-letter words debt and pain (or fill in your own four-letter words). This week I try to give some insight into what is happening in the credit markets, some of it below the radar screen of most analysts. We will look at the potential for deflation and the Fed's response. There is a lot to cover, so let's jump right in.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, November 21, 2008

Citigroup Breakup Speculation Sends Credit Default Risk Soaring / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI have been saying for over a year that Citigroup would not survive in one piece. That option is looking increasingly likely as the Citigroup Board Weigh Options .

Citigroup Inc.'s board meets today to discuss the bank's options after Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit's efforts to rebuild investor confidence failed to halt the stock's descent to a 15-year low, a person with knowledge of the matter said.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Credit Collapse, U.S. Treasury Yields Fall to Record Lows / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOnce again treasury bears who do not understand the implications of a collapse in credit are taking a beating as Treasury Yields Drop to Record Lows .

Treasury yields declined to record lows, with two-year notes dropping below 1 percent for the first time, as global stocks slumped and a deepening recession drove investors to the safest assets.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

U.S. Economy Reflation Challenge and LIBOR Deceptive Manipulation / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA major challenge looms large on the immediate horizon. The US Economy must be reflated in order to avoid collapse. Debts have become a crippling factor. Liquidation of speculative trades coincides with economic retreat, and hedge funds are under attack by their creditors (largely Wall Street firms) while major companies shed workers by the tens of thousands. When asked about economic prospects, a standard answer lately of mine has been to observe important signals not of recession but of potential disintegration.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Economic Forecast, Peering into a Debt Ridden Future / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Mick_Phoenix

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWelcome to the weekly report. This week we look at some longer term indicators that will help identify when a turning point in the economy has arrived and why you should cancel Christmas, or at least go back to its traditional meaning, forgoing the pointless consumerism that surrounds it.

Before we start, you may have wondered (or not) why the weekly report wasn't around. I have spent the past 3 weeks laying out the groundwork for an attempt to peer into the longer term future. Subscribers have seen all 3 articles, culminating in the new scenario. I have released the first 2 articles to the public, the final part will also be released but not for awhile yet.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Misguided Bets On The Yield Curve Steepening / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBloomberg is reporting U.S. Long-Term Treasuries Advance as Consumer Prices Plummet .
Treasuries maturing in 10 years or more, the most sensitive to inflation expectations, rose after a government report showed consumer prices dropped in October by the most on record.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Paulson's Blunders as Debt Securitization Market Remains Frozen / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHenry Paulson's time at Treasury has been one pratfall after another. Even so, on Tuesday he managed to out-due himself. Paulson held a "surprise" press conference where he announced that the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) wouldn't be used to buy troubled assets after all.    Instead, the money will used to bail out insurance giant AIG, provide extra capital for the banks to hoard, and now (this is new part) give money to "nonbank financial institutions, like insurers and specialty-finance companies" so they can lend to credit-worthy consumers. (Isn't that why we gave money to the banks?)

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