Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, August 02, 2007
Hedge Fund Failures is Fire in the Projection Room / Interest-Rates / Financial Crash
By: Tim_Iacono
Many people in high places continue to assert that problems with hedge funds and subprime lending do not pose a systemic risk to the financial system.
If these important people did think the entire financial system was threatened, do you think they would tell us?
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Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Hedge Fund Subprime Credit Crunch to Impact Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The ongoing crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage defaults continues to spiral into new directions, making it difficult for even experienced market watchers to comprehend the complete picture and its implication for the financial markets. Therefore this article attempts to explain the crisis and what it implies for future interest rate trends.
What are Subprime Mortgages?
These are Mortgages made available to those of subprime credit risk (poor credit histories), hence called sub prime mortgages.
Why would financial institutions lend to people with poor credit histories ?
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Monday, July 30, 2007
Yield on US 10-Year Note Going Lower / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The yield of the 10-Year Treasury note climbed from 4.73% in March to 5.32% in June, at which point it had surged to a six-year resistance line, implying the potential for much higher rates. It then reversed in a big way and plunged to 4.74% into today's low, mostly in response to flight-to-safety concerns.
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Friday, July 27, 2007
Central Banks Print Money Whilst Money Market Interest Rates Fall / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch
By: Submissions
KEEPING OUR EYES PEELED FOR THE SILVER AND GOLD BASIS
Setting up the trip-wire
Gamblers shorting the dollar and bonds beware. Rumors about the imminent demise of the dollar and the bond market are grossly exaggerated. Bear in mind not only that the casino owner rigs your odds. He is also rigging the value of chips in which payoffs are made, thereby confusing the issue further.
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Friday, July 27, 2007
Back to Banking Basics - Risk Rating Agencies Assigning AAA to Risky Debt / Interest-Rates / Risk Analysis
By: Adrian_Ash
REMEMBER WHEN banks lent money using the cash deposited with them?
That's how most people still imagine banking works, even today. The banks hope to profit simply by charging more on their loans than they pay out to cash depositors. The art (or science) comes in choosing only the most credit-worthy borrowers, or adjusting the interest rate charged to higher risk debtors accordingly.
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Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Nolte Notes - Sublime to Sub-prime / Interest-Rates / Subprime Mortgage Risks
By: Paul_J_Nolte
The market focus has begun to move from the sublime to sub-prime. Housing was to be well contained, earnings growth (although slowing) was to march inexorably higher and investors mergers and acquisitions were going to (eventually!) remove every stock from the markets. Then Friday happened. Earnings warnings from Caterpillar and a miss by internet giant Google cast doubt about the overall strength of earnings for the quarter.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 23, 2007
Bear Stearns / Subprime Crisis - Looking for Contagion in All the Wrong Places / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch
By: John_Mauldin
This Week in Outside the Box we Join Bill Gross of Pimco in his July 2007 Investment Outlook as he strives to address the implications of the Bear Stearns hedge fund debacle, the toxic waste that is Wall Streets' innovative derivative products and their respective valuation, rather, lack thereof.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 20, 2007
The State of the Credit Markets / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
Hot Fun In The Summertime
Collateralized Loan Obligations
The Economic Outlook for Leveraged Credits
The New Mickey Mouse Club
Planes, Trains and Automobiles
This week I am already in Maine and getting ready for a weekend of fishing with my son Trey, so I am going to take off a week from writing the letter. I spoke this morning to the Maine chapter of the Chartered Financial Analysts in Portland. The question of the day was about the subprime markets, private equity and the debt markets in general. And these are the right questions, as this is the part of our economic world with the most risk.
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Wednesday, July 18, 2007
UK Inflation CPI Falls But Interest Rates Set to Rise to 6% By October 2007 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Yesterday the 'official' measure of UK inflation the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell from 2.5% to 2.4%, and thus trending in the right direction towards the 2% target after a scare earlier in the year when the CPI breached the upper limit of 3%, prompting the Governor of the Bank of England to write a letter to the former Chancellor Gordon Brown explaining why the Bank had failed to control inflation.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
Bear Stearns Yet to Report Mortgage Bond Losses - Bish, Bosh, Loads of Dosh! / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Wasn't Bear Stearns supposed to report the losses at its two mortgage-bond hedge funds on Monday this week...?"
"BEAR STEARNS Investors Await Tally on Losses," said the Wall Street Journal two weeks ago. The two-week deadline, set by America 's fifth-largest securities firm itself in an email to investors, came and went yesterday.
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Tuesday, July 17, 2007
Bank of England’s Rate Raising Cycle Is Far From Over! / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Mario_Innecco
Today we saw the O.N.S. (Office of National Statistics) release the C.P.I. and the R.P.I. for the month of June. The C.P.I. or the consumer price index came out at a 2.4% year on year rate and actually dropped from 2.5% in May but the financial markets were expecting a drop to 2.3%, while the R.P.I. or the retail price index came out at 4.4% year on year which was on the back of an expected decrease from 4.3% to 4.2%.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
US Bond Market and Interest Rates Quarterly Review and Outlook - Second Quarter 2007 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
This week in Outside the Box, we take a closer look at the bond market and its underlying drivers. HMIC's Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt anticipate lower inflationary pressures on account of faltering consumer spending and further deterioration in the housing market.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 13, 2007
When Bad Debts Attack - Japan a Warning to the US Fed / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch
By: Adrian_Ash
"...Memo to the US Fed: When the Dollar collapse comes, you might not get chance to even give money away..."
BEN BERNANKE has his helicopter. John Maynard Keynes had old bottles buried in coal mines.
And the Japanese government? How can Tokyo dish out free money and put an end to deflation, that horror of falling prices and wages?
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Friday, July 13, 2007
Bond Market - Time to Face the Music / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Peter_Schiff
This week, bond rating agencies Moody's and Standard & Poor's finally announced downgrades on billions of dollars of bonds backed by subprime mortgages. Though the cuts will certainly not reflect the full weakness of the bonds, and will not include nearly as many issues as they should, they nevertheless amount to the beginning of the end of the phony mortgage investment market and the unrealistically high home prices that it helped support.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 12, 2007
Hyperinflation and the Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: David_Shvartsman
Here's one for all you economic philosophers and "bond market vigilante"-types. The question I'm currently turning over in my mind is this: can the U.S. experience hyperinflation, or will the possibility of such an extreme inflationary spiral be held in check by the bond markets?The current thinking on the possibility of the United States experiencing hyperinflation seems to be split between those who say it can (and likely will at some point in the future), and those who feel it cannot, for precisely the reason stated above.
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