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Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

What Happens When the Fed FINALLY Reduces Its $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet? / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: EWI

So, there we have it. Deflation has started.

The Federal Reserve announced last month that they would start to reduce their $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October, thereby starting the process we call Quantitative Tightening (QT). As expected, they are aiming to do it gently and quietly, by not reinvesting bonds as they mature, starting with sums of around $6 billion of Treasuries and $4 billion in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). The scale of non-reinvestment will gradually increase. Once in full swing, the Fed's balance sheet could reduce by up to $150 billion each quarter.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 16, 2017

Who Will Be the Next Fed Chief - And Why It Matters  / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Dan_Steinbock

Janet Yellen's term is ending at the Federal Reserve. With new appointments, President Trump can indirectly shape US monetary policy for years to come - for better or worse. 

Serving as the “epitome of calm,” Fed chief Ben Bernanke responded to the global financial crisis by cutting the federal funds rate to zero and initiating rounds of quantitative easing (QE) soon thereafter.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 15, 2017

How to Wipe Out Puerto Rico's Debt Without Hurting Bondholders / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2017

By: Ellen_Brown

During his visit to hurricane-stricken Puerto Rico, President Donald Trump shocked the bond market when he told Geraldo Rivera of Fox News that he was going to wipe out the island's bond debt. He said on October 3rd:

You know they owe a lot of money to your friends on Wall Street. We're gonna have to wipe that out. That's gonna have to be -- you know, you can say goodbye to that. I don't know if it's Goldman Sachs but whoever it is, you can wave good-bye to that.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 13, 2017

It Would Take A 50% Hike in Income Tax to Fund Current US Budget Deficit / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

The projected total US debt will be $30 trillion within 10 years, using the CBO’s own numbers. But the CBO also makes the rosy assumptions that there will be no recessions and that GDP will grow at a 4% nominal rate.

Now, that’s possible; I'm inclined to haircut it a bit.

If you asked me to bet the “over/under” on the debt in 2027, I would bet the over at $35 trillion.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

The Profoundly Personal Impact Of The National Debt On Our Retirements / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Dan_Amerman

In this analysis we will take a look at something deeply personal – which is how the $20 trillion United States national debt may change the day-to-day quality of life for savers and retirees in the decades ahead. That is likely a somewhat unusual perspective for many savers and investors.

On the one hand, we have what are often thought of as abstract economic concepts - such as how large will the national debt be in 10 or 20 years? How will Federal Reserve actions to increase interest rates change future government deficits and debts?

On the other hand, we have something that is typically presented as being entirely different, which is individual financial planning. What are the savings and investment choices that we need to make today that will help determine what our standard of living may be in retirement 10, 20 or 30 years from now?

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Six-month Surge in One Year Fixed Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: MoneyFacts

The recovery in the savings market over the past six months has caused the average one-year fixed bond rate to surpass the average return that was available on a two-year fixed bond back in April 2017, according to the latest research by moneyfacts.co.uk.

Today, the average return on a one-year fixed bond has hit 1.14%, a marked increase from April, when the average one-year bond paid less than 1%. At the same time, the average two-year bond paid 1.13%, below the one-year average of today.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 09, 2017

UK Base Rate Speculation Causes Fixed Interest Rates to Rise / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: MoneyFacts

Moneyfacts UK Mortgage Trends Treasury Report data, not yet published, highlights that as SWAP rates have seen a steep increase due to base rate speculation, the average two-year fixed rate mortgage is also starting to rise.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 06, 2017

Stunning U.S. Government Debt Increase In Past Few Days…. While No One Noticed / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Steve_St_Angelo

As the stock market continues to rise on the back of some of the worst geopolitical, financial, and domestic news, the U.S. Treasury has been quietly increasing the amount of government debt, with virtually no coverage by the Mainstream or Alternative Media.  So, how much has the U.S. debt increased in the past few days?   A bunch.

The surge in U.S. debt that took place over the past two days all started when the debt ceiling limit was officially allowed to increase on Sept 8th.  In just one day, the U.S. Treasury increased the public debt by $318 billion:

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 02, 2017

The Fed Knew QE Wouldn’t Work From The Start / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: John_Mauldin

When is a mystery not a mystery? When Janet Yellen is puzzling over a lack of inflation, that’s when. So says Brian Wesbury, chief economist, and Robert Stein, deputy chief economist of First Trust, in the following essay (featured in my Outside the Box).

The bottom line: QE didn’t work—and Janet knew it was unlikely to work—from the start.

So where did all that easy money go? I think I’ll let the authors tell you. I think you’ll enjoy this brief, clear-headed essay.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, September 30, 2017

Kevin Warsh May Be the Next Fed Head—Let’s See What He Really Thinks / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: F_F_Wiley

As reported earlier this morning by the Wall Street Journal, President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin met with Kevin Warsh yesterday to discuss the potential vacancy at the Fed next February.

Warsh already has central banking experience, having sat on the Federal Open Market Committee as a Fed governor from February 2006 until March 2011.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, September 23, 2017

Calling the UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Bonds Low ... Where Is Yield Heading Next? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Calling the UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Bonds Low ... Where Is Yield Heading Next?

On September 6, with the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) reaching a new low (33.32) in its 7-month corrective process, we noted that "Dec-Sep correction could be at or nearing a downside exhaustion."

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, September 23, 2017

How Will We Be Affected by a Series of Rate Hikes? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Boris_Dzhingarov

The current federal funds rate is 1.00% – 1.25%. The Fed started raising interest rates in December 2015, when they were at a historic low of 0.25%. Since then, 4 rate hikes have been implemented, each valued at 25-basis points. Today, the federal funds rate (FFR) is inching towards the 1.25% – 1.50% level. The average interest rate in the US between 1971 and 2017 was 5.77%. It peaked at 20% in 1980 and dropped to an all-time low of 0.25% after the global financial crisis of 2008. Interest rates are especially important when it comes to monetary policy.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, September 22, 2017

Pensions and Debt Time Bomb In UK: £1 Trillion Crisis Looms / Interest-Rates / UK Debt

By: GoldCore

– £1 trillion crisis looms as pensions deficit and consumer loans snowball out of control
– UK pensions deficit soared by £100B to £710B, last month
– £200B unsecured consumer credit “time bomb” warn FCA
– 8.3 million people in UK with debt problems
– 2.2 million people in UK are in financial distress
– ‘President Trump land’ there is a savings gap of $70 trillion
– Global problem as pensions gap of developed countries growing by $28B per dayp>

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Interest-Rates

Friday, September 15, 2017

The US Debt Bubble Will Soon Warrant Serious Measures / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

There is big debate over the exact amount of global debt.

Parts of it get hidden in many out-of-the-way pockets. But broadly speaking, global debt is about 325% of GDP, and likely over $225 trillion as I write.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, September 15, 2017

US Budget Deficit Swindling Futurity / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: James_Quinn

“The principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale.”Thomas Jefferson

Yesterday the government reported a “modest” August budget deficit of $108 billion. That’s one month folks. This is another example of how the government and their mainstream media mouthpieces portray horrifically bad, extremely abnormal financial data as normal and expected. They pretend everything that has happened since 2008 is just standard operating procedure. They follow the Big Lie theory to the extreme. The masses have been so dumbed down, desensitized, and taught to believe delusions, they can’t distinguish the abnormal from the normal.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 14, 2017

US Drowning in Debt, Surpasses $20 Trillion As Bankruptcy and Hyperinflation Loom Closer / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Jeff_Berwick

The US government finally surpassed the long anticipated $20 trillion national debt mark on Friday the 8th.

Oh, I don’t say “finally” because they had so restricted their expenditures that it was taking longer than expected. That’s far from the case!

In fact, under globalist, Donald “Big Government” Trump, the federal government had its largest deficit month in history in June topping $400 billion for the first time.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Trump Suggests Eliminating the Debt Ceiling – Dollar Falls / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: MoneyMetals

Those who paid any attention to the financial press last week saw the following narrative; President Donald Trump betrayed Republicans by cutting a deal with Democrats Nancy Pelosi and Charles Schumer. They agreed to punt on the borrowing cap until December and spend $15 billion for hurricane relief.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, September 10, 2017

Hurricane Trump Blowing the Debt Ceiling Roof Off / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Peter_Schiff

Of all the absurd Washington pantomimes none has been as reliably entertaining and maddening as the annual debates to raise the debt ceiling. Although the outcome was always a foregone conclusion (the ceiling would be raised), the excitement came when fiscal conservatives bemoaned the perils of runaway debt and “attempted” to exact spending restrictions through threats “to shut down the government,” (which often led to news coverage of tourists being turned away from national parks.) On the other side of the aisle Democrats would rail that the ceiling must be raised “because America always pays her bills.” Lost was the irony that “paying” bills with borrowed money was fiscally responsible, and that raising the ceiling actually enabled America to continue to avoid paying its bills. After these amateur theatrics, the ceiling would be lifted and Washington would go on as if nothing happened. But at least the performance threw occasional light on the nation’s debt problems.
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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 07, 2017

Forecasting US 30-Year Treasury Bond Yields / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Francois_Soto

The movement of interest rates affects lenders and creditors across global markets while influencing key variables such as output, employment, etc.

We predict the US Generic 30-Year Treasuries Yield using a selection of macroeconomic variables chosen from hundreds of time series available.

We trade US1 future contracts based on the differential between the regression output and the actual yield and this strategy is profitable.

Interest rates are an important monetary policy tool to gauge the state of the economy and for policy makers to act accordingly. Per its definition, it is the rate at which interest is paid by a borrower for the use of money. The movement of interest rates affects lenders and creditors across global markets while influencing key variables such as output, employment, consumption, etc.
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Interest-Rates

Thursday, September 07, 2017

Yet Another Theory of the Fed? Uggh! / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: F_F_Wiley

The world hardly needs another theory of the Fed, especially so soon after its Jackson Hole symposium. But we have a theory, too, and who knows, ours could be as close to the bulls-eye as any of the others. Plus, our theory is easy to explain—it rests on the simple premise that decision makers worry mostly about their reputations. We’ll propose that reputational risks are the primary drivers of central bank policies, and then we’ll use that belief to predict a major policy shift.

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