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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Everything The Fed Does Is Scripted / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Janet Yellen today solemnly stated that the Fed has killed QE because the jobs outlook has improved. These are the guys and gals who have more and better access to more and better data than any of us have. And we all know that the sole reason the BLS unemployment rate has fallen is that 90-odd million working age Americans are no longer counted as part of the work force, and a huge part of those who are still employed moved to worse-paying jobs and/or had their pay and/or benefits cut.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

When Will Central Bank Morons Ever Learn? asks Albert Edwards at Societe General / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Mike_Shedlock

Central Banks and the Business Cycle

I like it when someone besides a few financial bloggers takes the gloves off and starts asking some hard-hitting questions.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 24, 2014

QE Failure & Folly Of Paper Mache, Treasury Bond Integrated Lifeline Patches / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Jim_Willie_CB

The Quantitative Easing initiatives have been declared as stimulus and successful in sustaining the US financial system. While having been able to continue the debt floats, the many market props, providing coverage for USGovt debt securities and mortgage backed securities which nobody wants, the initiative is hardly stimulus. The hyper monetary inflation does what we always learned it did, as in from school for 50 years, dole out its powerful corrosive effect. The inflation lifts the cost structure, leads to elimination of profit margins, and forces businesses to shut down, thus taking equipment out of service. The Jackass prefers to call the QE effect as killing capital, forcing retired capital, putting equipment on mothballs, often liquidated. Neither the USFed nor the Wall Street partners ever refer to the capital destruction effect, because it contradicts their stimulus argument and false message. Theirs is pure propaganda in keeping with the urgent directive to save the banks that are too big to fail. These are the financial crime centers of America.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 23, 2014

What Debt Deleveraging? / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Harry_Dent

The best way to delever is to immediately pay off any existing debt, right? So, how can the global economy do that?

There’s a great new study out from Geneva Reports on the World Economy 16 (ICMB — International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies) called Deleveraging? What Deleveraging?

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

The Flat Debt Society / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde says the global economy is facing “the risk of a new mediocre, where growth is low and uneven.”…  Lagarde said Europe's 18-nation bloc that uses the euro currency – collectively the world's biggest economy – is facing the "not insignificant" risk of falling back into a recession. (VOA News)

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 20, 2014

Do We Need a Lender of Last Resort? / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: MISES

Nicolás Cachanosky writes: Scotland’s vote for independence resulted in a negative. There won’t be, for now, further discussions about what Scotland should do with its monetary institutions. Still, there is one more issue that I would like to discuss, because it transcends the particular case of Scotland, had independence been the result of the vote.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, October 20, 2014

A Funny Thing Happened on The Way to Raising Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

It wasn't too long ago that the stock market was busy celebrating a "great" September jobs report. There were 248k net new jobs created and the unemployment rate dropped to 5.9 percent. Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke and the rest of Washington D.C.'s central planners deemed it a great time to take a Keynesian victory lap, basking in the delusion that they now have proved you actually can print and borrow your way to prosperity.

And, because of their success, the Fed would be able to raise interest rates without any damage to the economy.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Why the Fed Should Consider Delaying the End of QE / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Bloomberg

James Bullard, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, told Bloomberg Television's economics editor Michael McKee today that the Fed should consider delaying the end of QE.

Bullard said, "I also think that inflation expectations are dropping in the U.S. And that is something that a central bank cannot abide. We have to make sure that inflation and inflation expectations remain near our target. And for that reason I think a reasonable response of the Fed in this situation would be to invoke the clause on the taper that said that the taper was data dependent. And we could go on pause on the taper at this juncture and wait until we see how the data shakes out into December. So...continue with QE at a very low level as we have it right now. And then assess our options going forward."

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Comparing One Dimension of the Policy Responses of the ECB and the Federal Reserve / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Jesse

Here is a chart comparing the Balance Sheet Assets of the Fed and the European Central Bank.

It is important to recall that the Fed has been providing extensive funding to non-US, largely European, multinational Banks through their US subsidiaries.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Inflation, Deflation, and Our Very Confident Bet in T-Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Rick_Ackerman

I’ve been touting the ongoing bull market in T-Bonds as one of the best investment opportunities of our lifetime – a no-brainer, as far, as I can recommend.  About the only way this bet can lose is if inflation returns with a vengeance. This has never been much of a worry for me, since, on the inspiration of C.V. Myers’ prescient 1976 book, I’ve been writing about the threat of deflation for more than 20 years.  As Myers noted, every penny of very debt must eventually be paid – if not by the borrower, then by the lender. So far, lenders have hung tough on their terms, and although a recklessly expansive monetary policy has cut mortgage debtors in particular some slack, there is no reason to think private lenders will let homeowners skip free when the second stage of the housing collapse that began in 2007 begins anew. Deflation-wise, this is where the rubber will meet the road, drawing irresistible power from the inevitable implosion of the quadrillion dollar Ponzi scheme popularly known as “derivatives.”

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 12, 2014

New Zero Bound Only Game In Town / Interest-Rates / Financial Markets 2014

By: Richard_Mills

The Federal Reserve tried to fix the U.S. economy by Quantifornication - stimulus measures.

Investors reacted to the Fed's unconventional efforts. Since the U.S. dollar is the world's reserve currency and precious metals are priced in dollars they bought gold and silver to protect their wealth against currency devaluation and inflation.

Gold catapulted to a record in 2011 as investors wagered on higher inflation and a weakening dollar.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 12, 2014

The 5–Year U.S. Treasury Bond is Emblematic of Careless Risk Taking in Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

Dovishness Begets Excessive Risk Taking by Speculators

The Fed minutes came out this past week and they mentioned the strong dollar and less than stellar growth out of Europe, basically more over the top dovishness which just encouraged more unwise risk taking in the bond markets. This week Dallas Fed's Fisher said that they have identified areas of risk in markets, and James Bullard has said on several occasions that the markets are even behind the most dovish participants at the Federal Reserve regarding the forecasts for rate hikes, and the actual market actions of participants.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 10, 2014

The Fed Risk - Upside Down and Backwards: Here We Go Again / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: MISES

"There are some ideas so wrong that only a very intelligent person could believe in them." -George Orwell

In a recent widely distributed associated press article, Bond Market Bubble is Looking
Fragile, Bernard Cohen correctly (remarkably) identifies the financial bottleneck threatening to once again freeze credit markets a la The Lehman Crisis. 

Cohen paints the portrait of a bond market panic; the very sort that could easily trigger the type of crash that could "get away" from policy makers and morph into a full blown currency crisis. 

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, October 04, 2014

The Fed Cannot Wait For Wage Inflation to Raise Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: EconMatters

5.9% Unemployment Rate
On Friday the Employment Report came out reaffirming the stellar 2014 employment story, in fact the United States has created an amazing amount of jobs this year, well ahead of both the Fed`s own forecast for job creation and the most optimistic economist outlook for 2014 bringing the unemployment rate down to 5.9% with three months still left in the year.
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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 03, 2014

U.S. Bond Market Fourth Quarter Trade of 2014 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Chris_Vermeulen

If you have been paying close attention to the stock market, market internals/breadth, and bonds for the past three months, you’ve likely come to the same conclusion that I have.

The US stock market is showing signs of severe weakness with the market breadth and leading indicators pointing to a sharp correction for stock prices.

With fewer stocks trading above their 50 and 200 day moving averages each week, while the broad market S&P 500 index continues to rising, this bearish divergence is a red flag for long term investors.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, October 02, 2014

U.S. 30 Year US T-Bonds Voodoo Analysis / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Austin_Galt

There looks to be a solid opportunity arising to get involved on the long side here. Let's investigate taking a top down approach beginning with the yearly chart.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 01, 2014

“Back Door” Method For The Government To Pay Down The Federal Debt Using Private Savings? / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Dan_Amerman

The United States government is currently about $17.5 trillion in debt.  To place this number in perspective:  if we assume that only the above-poverty line households will be making net contributions towards paying this enormous debt, this means that the national debt equals about $180,000 for each "able to pay" household in the US.

With traditional financial planning, the most common way of dealing with this problem – is to completely ignore its existence.  Rather than try to incorporate the effects of this massive debt that could transform interest rates, economic growth and rates of return for decades – most investment plans for individuals simply pretend it doesn't exist.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 01, 2014

How stable is the U.S. Bond Market? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: BATR

Seldom does the enormous bond market turn on the fate of a single trader. Well, the news that Bill Gross was leaving Pimco under suspicious circumstances did not go unnoticed. The WSJ writes:

“The yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury note was hovering around 2.506% immediately before the disclosure that Mr. Gross was leaving the hundreds-of-billions of dollars in Treasurys and other debt he oversaw at Pimco to go to rival firm Janus Capital Group Inc.

Within a half-hour, the yield jumped to 2.546%. While a move of 0.04 percentage point    may not seem like much in that period of time, it was perceptible enough in the $12 trillion Treasury market that several traders and strategists attributed it to the news about Mr. Gross.”

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 01, 2014

Why The U.S. Fed WILL Raise Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Raul_I_Meijer

This is not the first time I’ve written on this topic, but I want to do it again, because rate hikes, when they come, will have a tremendous effect on everybody’s loves and economies, wherever you live. And because I think there’s still far too much complacency out there, far too much ‘conviction’ that higher rates will come only after a comfortable period of time, and even then only gradually.

There are three steps in the Fed’s ‘policies’. There’s QE, which will end in October. There’s ultra low interest rates, which have so far been maintained. And then there’s the dollar, whose rate many people still think is determined by the ‘markets’, even if the Fed is in effect the ‘markets’. When the Fed buys, or makes third parties buy, bonds and stocks (and we know it has), it’s not going to let the dollar roam free. That makes no sense.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, October 01, 2014

Using Put Options to Bet on a Junk-Bond Crash / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds

By: Submissions

Rick Ackerman writes: Here’s an easy play for those who have never cashed a winning ticket trading put or call options. Specifically, I am going to tell you how to bet on a junk-bond crash without risking your shirt — even if junk bonds continue to defy gravity indefinitely. First, let me assert that straight-up directional plays with stock options almost never win. Your odds are better trying to predict precisely when a shooting star will flash across the night sky. Similarly, if you buy call options with the expectation that a stock is about to surge, your timing had better be perfect, since the options you’ll be buying will be priced to discount any such event. Indeed, to make money on the calls, the move in the underlying vehicle would need to be so steep as to lie well outside the stock’s historical behavior.  Moreover, as implied above, you would need to initiate the trade just before the rally takes off, since, if you get in early, time decay will sap the value of your calls quickly. And you can forget about getting aboard after the rally has begun, since option prices will be goosed into the stratosphere mere minutes after the stock lurches higher.

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