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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Friday, January 11, 2013

Gargantuan and Growing: The U.S. Debt Figure You've Probably Never Heard Of / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: EWI

The widely reported $16.1 trillion federal debt is a drop in the bucket

Financial transparency is a must for U.S. publicly traded companies. But if the federal government had to abide by those same regulations, more Americans would know that the often-reported $16.1 trillion federal debt doesn't come close to the truth about the nation's liabilities.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, January 10, 2013

When Will U.S. Interest Rates Rise? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Clif_Droke

Recently I was asked a question that I suspect has been on many investors' minds. Here's the question: "Is it possible that the bond market will be the market to tumble into 2014, and as it does, the general market decline is mitigated by the rotation of money out of bonds and into stocks?"

Here's my answer: Anything is possible in today's upside-down world. As my late friend and mentor Bud Kress used to ask, "Does anything surprise you anymore?" But I'd have to say here - and I firmly believe Bud would echo this sentiment - if there's any validity to the 120-year Kress cycle, a sustainable rising interest rate trend isn't likely until after October 2014.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 09, 2013

Can Banks Really Just Create Money? / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System

By: Paul_Tustain

It's the banks, not their customers, who actually wind up owing each other money...

OBSERVERS of Fractional Reserve Banking have noticed that your deposit into a bank can cause the bank to offer new loans well above and beyond the size of your deposit.

Those watchers often object on the grounds that this is new money which shouldn't have been created.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 09, 2013

Kamikaze Monetary Policy as BOJ Prepares to Launch More Zeros / Interest-Rates / Japanese Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

It is an unfortunate truth that Keynesian counterfeiters with their Kamikaze monetary and fiscal policies have taken over the developed world. Politicians and central banks in the United States and Europe have decided to cement firmly in place their addictions to debt, inflation and artificially produced low interest rates. But Japan has now leapfrogged into the lead of those nations that believe prosperity can be brought about by loading up on government debt and increasing the number of zeros being printed by their central bank.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 09, 2013

Financial Ticking Time Bomb 2013, Japan the Greece of Asia / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2013

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: While many eyes are focusing on Europe and America when it comes to the next financial crisis, one sector that people aren’t focusing on is the bond market in Japan. Many investors might not realize it, but Japan might be the next financial ticking time bomb.

How does a financial crisis in the bond market affect the average person? On a basic level, the bond market prices move based on supply and demand, which affect interest rates. With greater demand in the bond market, this pushes up prices and lowers interest rates. A lower interest rate obviously helps prevent a financial crisis from occurring, as it takes less money to pay off the debt—much like a credit card interest rate being reduced.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 09, 2013

Federal Reserve May Pause Quantitative Easing / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: BATR

An obscure report that the Federal Reserve may suspend the monetization of purchasing Treasury Bonds has the smell of disinformation. The perennial efforts to lift economic spirits with the beginning of a New Year often are packed with wishful thinking. Quantitative Easing is being treated as a useful tool for turning on and off the spigot of liquidity infusion. In reality, the results of the massive origination of debt created monies fundamental purpose is to save the commercial banks from insolvency.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 09, 2013

Global Debt Crisis Explained / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2012

By: Submissions

Liam Fisher writes: "The global debt crisis is continuing, largely unabated. While significant measures are being put into place by governments around the world, there is little tangible effect being had on deficits that are continuing to pile up. Indeed, there is only limited agreement amongst economists on the severity of the debt crisis and its implications for the people of the world or the best ways to go about rectifying the problem. Some advocate drastic austerity measures and strict fiscal conservatism, while others take a more Keynesian approach that sees deficit spending as a way out of recession.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, January 06, 2013

U.S. Interest Rates Forecast 2013, Don’t Fight The Fed! / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Robert_M_Williams

I’ve been watching the Fed for years and like everyone else, I’ve always paid attention to the old saying that, “You don’t fight the Fed.” So it stands to reason that when the Fed says they’ll keep interest rates at zero well into 2015, you would expect rates to stay at or close to zero. They even went so far as to put an exclamation point on this policy two weeks ago when they announced that they were buying as much as 90% of all new issues. In short the US Federal Reserve is now acting as a buyer of last resort. That statement set off all sorts of warning bells in the deep recesses of my mind as my experience tells me that whenever a government is acting as a buyer of last, it’s in deep trouble. It brings back memories of many failed banana republics’!

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, January 05, 2013

Over Due U.S. Treasury Bond Sell-off To Become More Serious! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Sy_Harding

With my indicators on a sell signal for bonds since August 16, I have been warning about bonds being overbought and in danger of rolling over into a serious correction for several months. And indeed, the 20-year U.S. Treasury bond has already lost 11% of its value just since its late July peak.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 04, 2013

U.S. Treasury Bonds, The Worst Investment for 2013 and the Next Decade / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: One of the biggest investor mistakes by the average retail investor is to be late to cash in on an investment theme. These investor mistakes are not limited to just the stock market, but all types of investments. If we look at investor mistakes by the retail public for buying real estate, most people were bullish at the top of the market and were selling, or were forced to sell, their real estate at the bottom. Buying high and selling low is one of the most common investor mistakes by the majority of the public.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 04, 2013

Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields: Clues from the Past / Interest-Rates / Inflation

By: PhilStockWorld

My monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. In a “normal” market environment — one with normal business cycles, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates and inflation — current valuation levels would be a serious concern.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, December 29, 2012

What Happens When the Bond Markets Turn Against the US? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

The US Fed is committed to keeping interest rates low for the simple fact that if interest rates were to rise then the payments on the debt would send the US into an EU-syle debt crisis along with the commensurate intense austerity measures being implemented.

Unfortunately for the Fed, the bond markets may indeed force this in spite of the Fed’s efforts.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 24, 2012

Ben Bernanke's Ghost of QE Past, Present, and Future / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: DeviantInvestor

It was the best of times; it might be the worst of times.

Dollar bills glide effortlessly to the ground, dropped from the giant QE machine in the sky. All is quiet, all is calm. There is peace on earth, well, at least in Washington D.C. and on Wall Street. And then with a horrible crash, another Mortgage Backed Security (MBS) explodes and collateral damage spreads far and wide.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 21, 2012

UK Interest Rate Swaps Financial Armageddon, Bankster Mis-Selling Bigger than PPI? / Interest-Rates / Banksters

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Following the multi-billion PPI Mis-selling scandal, just when you thought it could not get any worse, Britain's crime syndicate that is our biggest banks have been revealed to have taken another systematic bite out of thousands of unsuspecting small businesses on a scale that could end up resulting to be as big as that of the mis-selling of PPI insurance.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 20, 2012

U.S. Treasury Bond Yield Operation Twise and QE3 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short. I’ve updated the charts below through yesterday’s close. The S&P 500 is now only 1.29% off its interim high of 1,465.77 set on September 14th, the day after QE3 was announced. The interim low since then was 1,353.52, a decline of 7.66% a month later on November 15. The 10-year note closed yesterday at 1.84, which is only 4 basis points off its interim high of 1.88, also set the day after QE3 was announced. The historic closing low was 1.43 on July 25th. With what looks like a Santa Rally in stocks underway, yields have risen to levels last seen about two months ago. What will be particularly interesting is how yields (and equities) fare in the last four market days of 2012 if the various Fiscal Cliff issues are not resolved by the end of this week.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Basel’s Capital Curse, Beating the Drums of Bank Recapitalization / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: Steve_H_Hanke

In the aftermath of the financial crisis, the oracles of money and banking have been beating the drums for “recapitalization” — telling us that, to avoid future crises, banks must be made stronger. To accomplish this, governments across the developed world are compelling banks to raise fresh capital and strengthen their balance sheets. And, if banks can’t raise more capital, they are told to shrink the amount of risk assets (loans) on their books. In any case, we are told that one way or another, banks’ capital-asset ratios must be increased — the higher, the better.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Hidden U.S. Treasury Bond Market Risks? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Axel_Merk

While Treasuries are said to have no default risk as the Federal Reserve (Fed) can always print money to pay off the debt, hidden risks might be lurking. As oxymoronic as it may sound, the biggest risk to the economy and the U.S. dollar might be, well, economic growth! Let us explain.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 17, 2012

Bernanke’s Balance Sheet Ensures Disaster / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Michael_Pento

As expected, Ben Bernanke officially launched QE IV with his announcement last week of $85 billion dollars worth of unsterilized purchases of MBS and Treasuries. In unprecedented fashion, the Fed also tied the continuation of its zero interest rate policy and trillion dollars per annum balance sheet expansion to an unemployment rate that stays above 6.5%. Now, pegging free money and endless counterfeiting to a specific unemployment figure would be a brilliant idea if printing money actually had the ability to increase employment. But it does not.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 16, 2012

QE4, The Fed's Fantastic Failure / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Clif_Droke

Question: When is an unprecedented economic event tantamount to a non-event? Answer: When another Fed intervention is announced.

The U.S. Federal Reserve bank announced this week the commencement of a new round of Treasury purchases to the tune of $45 billion a month to replace the expiring Operation Twist. This is in addition to the recently launched QE3 program that committed the Fed to buying $40 billion a month in mortgage-backed securities. The grand total of these central bank interventions amounts to some $1 trillion a year in government debt markets.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Sorting Out a Decade of Debt, Investment Conclusions / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

In today's Outside the Box I bring you two pieces that, at first glance, may not seem to have much to do with each other. First, Bill Gross, PIMCO managing director, runs down the fierce structural headwinds that our hard-pedaling global economy faces over the next decade. I am going to deal at length with not only his GDP projections for the rest of the decade but those of Grantham and others in the last two Thoughts from the Frontline of this year. This is a challenging environment for traditional portfolio construction, but it’s par for the course as we slog through the secular bear market I was first writing about in 1999.

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