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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Beware a Parabolic Rise Culminates in Market Crash / Interest-Rates / Financial Crash

By: Brian_Bloom

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIf I have learned one thing in the 40 odd years that I have been watching the markets, it is this: Parabolic rises culminate in crashes. It's a biological phenomenon. The crowd stampedes, or the population explodes, or prices rise with geometrically increasing rapidity – to the point where the rate of increase can no longer be sustained. Because thought paradigms don't change readily, behaviour at the individual level does not adapt appropriately to circumstances and, therefore, behavioural modification is “forced” by the environment. The environment is not able/prepared to tolerate the excessive growth – and the growth collapses in on itself.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Fed Money Printing to Solve Banking Crisis Leading to Stagflation / Interest-Rates / Stagflation

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt doesn't matter what newspaper you picked up. I doesn't matter what TV show you watched. Records fell like no time in recent history with perhaps the exception of Carl Lewis running loose at the Olympics in his heyday.

I wonder how much his Gold medals are worth now?

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 14, 2008

Central Banks $2.5 Trillion Money Supply Fails to Stop Global Deleveraging / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Christopher_Laird

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA year or so ago, I wrote a piece discussing that when the world credit bubble (pan financial bubble in markets and assets) unwinds, world governments will be forced to try and support the markets. The prediction was that this will amount to monetization of failing markets. The alternative to monetization would be intolerable financial panics and market collapses, where people lose all their savings. (Monetization is where central banks buy assets to shore them up, thus using the currency to support collapsing markets. This is in the process of happening now in the EU and the US.)

Right now, we are looking at the precipice of a total world financial collapse. When the stock markets finally let go, people will wake up to the reality of world financial bankruptcy. Millions of people will lose much of their retirement savings, in a super world stock crash, and you will again see stories about people refusing to open their 401k statements because they don't want to see how far down they are. That's what happened right after the Tech crash. Well, think of that episode as merely a taste of what is to come.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 14, 2008

Federal Reserve Throwing Everything at the Credit Crisis / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMike Larson writes: Feds Flying by the Seat of their Pants- Is it just me, or do the Feds seem to be flying by the seat of their pants?

Is it just me, or was Washington completely blind sided by the magnitude of this housing and mortgage crisis ... and now, they're trying desperately to play catch up?

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Are US Interest Rates Fated to Rise? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Greg_Silberman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere is one path in investing that is sure to lead to ruin. It's a dangerous path because it lacks one critical ingredient for success – thought! The path we are speaking about is called “following the consensus”.

It is both intellectually and emotionally easy to follow a majority of bullish analysts. Unfortunately the ‘consensus' is seldom right and hardly ever leads to BIG profits.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Credit Overdose! Requiem for a Departing Economic System / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Alex_Wallenwein

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleContinued US Fed liquidity injections like the Fed's previous "Term Auction Facility" (TAF) and today's novel "Term Securities Lending Facility" (TSLF) will only serve to overdose the economy with exactly what ails it: too much credit. This will further boost the price of everything - and in particular, of gold and silver.

The following headline and byline appeared this morning, March 11. 2008, on MarketWatch.com: "Fed's Latest Fix Does the Trick - Wall Street applauds as Fed intercedes, not with fresh rate cut but with a further push to inject funds into the economy."

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 07, 2008

Global Credit and Debt Market Crisis- CNBC They Still Don't Get It! / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Peter_Schiff

Prior to my last appearance on CNBC in October 2007, I had made more than 50 appearances on the network over the prior two years.  In those segments, I repeatedly exposed the superficiality of our prosperity, described the American economy as a “house of cards”, pointed out that borrowing and spending were a ticking time bomb rather than a viable plan for long term economic health, and explained how investors could prepare for the tough times ahead.  At the time, those forecasts were met with ridicule and led to my being nicknamed “Dr. Doom”.  Now that these predictions have come to pass, most on CNBC now claim that no one saw it coming!

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 07, 2008

Central Bankers Meet in Switzerland to Discuss Global Financial Crisis / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Adrian_Ash

The Ghost of Gold at the Central Bank Banquet
"Never shake thy gory locks at me...If thou canst nod, speak too."
Macbeth to Banquo's ghost, who's sitting in his chair ( Macbeth Act III, Scene iv)

THIS WEEKEND in Basel, Switzerland, central bankers from the G-10 group of rich nations meet up for one of their regular hoe-downs.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 06, 2008

UK Interest Rates Expected to be Kept on Hold at 5.25% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Bank of England is expected to keep UK interest rates on hold at 5.25% at today's MPC meeting despite economic data confirming a weakening housing market and economy. Rates were last cut in February 08, which was inline with the Market Oracle forecast as of August 07 and Sept 07 for UK interest rates to fall to 5% by September 2008, this was revised lower to 4.75% in January 2008 , following the US Panic rate cut of 0.75% on 22nd Jan 08 to 3.5%, which was later followed by a further 0.5% cut to take US interest rates to 3%.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 05, 2008

US Treasury Bonds vs. the CRB Point to Bond Market Collapse / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFrom 1980 until the spring of 2002, 10-year Treasury note yields held a positive correlation with the CRB index. Since 2002, however, there has been a dramatic divergence between Treasury yields and commodity prices. This trend is unsustainable in the long term because bond yields must eventually reflect rising inflationary pressures and at some point offer a positive real after-tax return.

There can be only two possible conclusions reached when viewing this disparity, shown in the chart below. One is that commodity prices are no longer an indication of inflationary pressures, a ridiculous contention that cannot be taken seriously. After all, the CRB Index contains 19 commodities that include precious metals, base metals, agriculture and energy, broad measures of the pricing pressures that exist in today's economy.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 03, 2008

Credit Crisis Presents A Great Buying Opportunity? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week we look at yet another rather obscure credit market that is in essential lockdown as the subject of your Outside the Box. My London partner Niels Jensen, head of Absolute Return Partners, has written a very interesting piece on the leveraged loan and bank loan markets, which are now upside down and getting more so in the recent weeks. This situation cannot continue, as what are clearly inferior products are selling for more than there high class cousins.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 29, 2008

Loss of Confidence in the US Fed / Interest-Rates / Inflation

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHear Me Now - Believe Me Later - Having neither the will nor the means to confront our major economic challenges, Washington is instead hanging its hopes on words alone.  This week, despite the clearest signs yet that the dollar is in critical condition, President Bush and Treasury Secretary Paulson tried to provide reassurance by once again invoking the name of the mythical “strong dollar policy”. Meanwhile across town, with the latest crop of inflation figures pointing to the greatest price surges in a generation, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke tried to do the Administration one better by insisting that inflation expectations remained “well anchored”, and that stagflation was nowhere in sight.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Colossal Collateral Damage- Financial Tsunami Part V / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: F_William_Engdahl

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article The Predators had a ball - The multi-trillion dollar US-centered securitization debacle began to unravel in June 2007 with the liquidity crisis in two hedge funds owned by Bear Stearns, one of the world's largest and most successful investment banks. The funds were heavily invested in sub-prime mortgage securities. The damage soon spread across the Atlantic to a little-known German state-owned bank, IKB. In July 2007, IKB's wholly-owned conduit, Rhineland Funding, had approximately €20 billion of Asset Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP). In mid-July, investors refused to rollover part of Rhineland Funding's ABCP. That forced the European Central Bank to inject record volumes of liquidity into the market to keep the banking system liquid.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 22, 2008

Fed Interest Rate Cuts have Resulted in Surging Commodity Price Inflation / Interest-Rates / Inflation

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSix Months of Fun, Fun, Fun from the Fed - "...If Bernanke was expecting a 13% rise on Wall Street, he's got a 45% rise in gold instead – plus a real disaster in US Treasury bond yields..."

THIS WEEK marked the six-month anniversary of the Fed's first cut to US interest rates during the current world banking crisis.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

The Credit Crash - The Next Shoe to Drop Will Be... / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs everyone by now knows, there is chaos in the municipal bond market. This week's Outside the Box is from good friend and Maine fishing buddy David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors ( www.cumber.com ).

Briefly, he outlines the problems we are seeing in munis, but then he goes on to warn of the possible next shoe to drop in closed end municipal bond funds. David is one of the smarter advisors I know, and when he points out a problem, I would suggest taking action.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 15, 2008

US Treasury Bonds: Safe Haven or Wealth Cemetery? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Alex_Wallenwein

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleYou know the spiel. Every time the stock markets drop, the financial press reports that US treasuries benefitted from the move in a “safe haven bid” - whatever that means.

Let's examine how safe US treasuries really are:

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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 15, 2008

Looming US Treasury Bond Market Crash / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Clive_Maund

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLike frightened rabbits scurrying back to the apparent safety of their hutches, investors rattled by the sub-prime shocks and the associated tremors in stockmarkets have been fleeing to the perceived safety of Treasury Bonds and Notes. The bad news is that this time the poacher knows where the rabbits are hiding and rabbit stew is on the menu tonight.

Let's just stop and think about this for a moment - just what is a Treasury Bond? - it is a piece of paper telling you that you are going to receive a fixed sum of US dollars at some designated point in the future.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Central Banks Other Option, Crossing the Rubicon / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Christopher_Laird

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRubicon ( Rubicō , Italian: Rubicone ) is a 29km long river in northern Italy. The river flows from the Appennines to the Adriatic sea through the southern Emilia-Romagna region between the towns of Rimini and Cesena. The river is notable as Roman law forbade its generals from crossing it with an army. The river was considered to mark the boundary between the Roman province of Cisalpine Gaul to the north and Italy proper to the south; the law thus protected the republic from internal military threat. When Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon in 49 BC, supposedly on January 10 of the Roman calendar, to make his way to Rome he broke that law and made armed conflict inevitable. According to Suetonius he uttered the famous phrase ālea iacta est ("the die is cast").[2]

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

US Tax Payer to Bail Out Bankers From Default - The Mother of All Rip-offs / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLow interest credit and “financial innovation” are a deadly-combo. They've knocked the banking system for a loop, clogged the credit markets with billions of dollars of subprime sludge, and left the real estate market sprawling on the canvas. Still---even though $2 trillion of capitalization has been wiped-out from falling home prices; and even though the financial system is in a terminal state of paralysis---no one has been held accountable. In fact, not one trader, mortgage lender, rating's-agency official, fund manager, or investment banker has been indicted or charged with criminal wrongdoing.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 08, 2008

US Treasury Bond Market - The Mother of all Bubbles / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn contrast to the dismal forecasting record of mainstream economists over the last few years, the forecasts that I have made regarding the dollar, oil, commodities, precious metals, global stock markets, inflation, and the U.S. economy have all come to pass. In addition, unlike the top economic oracles on Wall Street and in Washington, I can also point to similar accuracy in predicting the bursting of growing bubbles, first with technology in the late 1990's, and more recently with real estate.  However, my long-standing prediction about the fate of the bond market has fared much worse.  I still do believe this prediction was not wrong, but simply premature.

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