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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

US Fed Takes Money From Main Street to Give to Wall Street / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Ned_W_Schmidt

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleU.S. Federal Reserve has forgotten the most essential rule. They should first do no harm. In a rush to bailout the bankers from their self inflicted mortgage mess, Federal Reserve has seriously distorted the U.S. monetary system. In this week's graph are plotted the year-to-year dollar change for several Federal Reserve balance sheet items.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

LIBOR Interbank Market Stays Frozen Despite Bank of England £50 Billion Bailout / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis weeks Bank of England and UK Treasuries unprecedented near 'panic' action to prevent a string of Northern Rock type Bank Busts has so far failed to have any impact on the interbank market. The spread between the official LIBOR rate and the base rate remains at credit crisis extremes.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 21, 2008

US Interest Rates and Bond Yield Spread- The Full Nine Yards / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Captain_Hook

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe joke this April Fool's Day was on the short sellers with yet another squeeze higher in stocks. Of course this has not been a problem since last summer as stocks have been (and remain) in a bear market. Unfortunately for short sellers this time around however, this bounce will likely be more robust than previous occurrences in that important cyclical influences have now gone positive, which will act as a tail wind for the bulls in fits and starts (choppy price action) right into the second quarter of next year. In this regard yesterday's violent rise was fuelled by hedge funds officially reversing the sell stocks / dollar and buy commodities / precious metals trade for the new quarter, implying they will endeavor to maintain these positions until June. And it just so happens this is when we are looking for a recovery high in stocks this year, sometime in and around mid-June in a possible double top test after an initial spike here in April, normally a seasonally strong month even in weak years. Of course May should provide some excitement to the downside however, which would bring gold / commodities back to life as the dollar ($) is sold once again.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 21, 2008

Bank of England Throws £50 billion of Tax Payers Money at the Banks / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe credit crisis is forcing the Bank of England to morph the Collaterised Mortgage Backed Securities Market into the Collaterised UK Government Bond Backed Mortgage Market. In effect the Bank of England is swapping 100% guaranteed Government Bonds for illiquid, un-priceable Mortgage backed junk securities. Thus allowing the banks to offer Government Bonds as security on the Interbank Market.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, April 20, 2008

Fed Interest Rate Cut Could Spark Bond Market Panic Selling / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mick_Phoenix

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWelcome to the Weekly Report. This week I have to highlight conditions in the bond markets as a priority, we maybe about to endure a bust of quite large proportions. I will also look at some longer term stock market indicators, confirmation that the Bank of England will follow the US and show why the current rally in stocks is due to a visit from an old friend, as readers at Livecharts.co.uk will know only too well.
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Interest-Rates

Friday, April 18, 2008

Federal Reserve Notes Backed by Worthless Mortgage Bonds- Who Will Bail Out the Fed? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe silence has been deafening. Since that fateful weekend in the middle of March when they almost lost control, things have been eerily quiet. In fact, today, the DOW finds itself up over 200 points in the face of another $5 Billion in losses at Citigroup. The losses have been spun as positive with most in the financial press saying in essence that we should be happy because it could have been a lot worse. Many have now even boldly called a bottom in the losses stemming from the subprime mortgage crisis. Haven't we heard this before?

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Interest-Rates

Friday, April 18, 2008

LIBOR Sends Another Warning Signal to the Global Financial Markets / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Martin_Hutchinson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe news that the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) system of setting interest rates is running into trouble was surprising at first glance.  It seems some banks are giving phony LIBOR quotations that don't reflect the true rates at which they accept deposits. In the perfect financial system, beloved of regulators and academics, this kind of discrepancy shouldn't happen.

In the real world it does, and I'll explain why.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Credit Crisis SCOOP- LIBOR Is Now Irrelevant to Derivatives Pricing / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Rob_Kirby

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn the latest Office of the Comptroller of the Currency – Quarterly Derivatives Report [Q4/07], we learn that outstanding notionals for reporting banks declined by 8 Trillion. Furthermore, we are told that the overall decline was “driven by a 9.2 Trillion reduction in interest rate contracts – mostly swaps with maturities of less than one year .”

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Bank of England Prepares to Ramp Up the Money Printing Presses / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGordon Brown having bottled out of an October 2007 election ahead of an economic slump during 2008 and 2009, is now attempting to prepare the ground works for an 2009-2010 election by giving the Bank of England the green light to print as much money as is necessary to enable the UK banks to restart lending to the consumer so as to prevent a multi-year housing bear market with accompanying recession that will ensure his election defeat.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Forget the Credit Crisis Headlines, Listen to the Bond Market! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLet's turn our attention to something that isn't often discussed, namely bonds.

I know what some of you are saying already: “But bonds are boring!” Yes, they may well be boring in most instances. But this isn't one of those times. Actually, the message of the bond market is one of the more exciting and optimistic messages being sent anywhere in the financial markets right now and it behooves us to pay close attention to what bonds are saying.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 14, 2008

Central Banks' in Tatters- Facts are Stubborn Things Part II / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Joseph_Russo

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe ALADDIN'S lamp of Central Banking coming FULL Circle - If one is inclined toward general agreement with the notion that the pinnacle of power in the world is the power to create money, - then one must hastily conclude that; the government-aligned private organizations of central banking cartels, whom fund all of the worlds imperial centers of power, – must then be held as the absolute mightiest of powers, whom preside at the highest seat of omnipotent influence over a vast array of interconnected relationships across the entire global landscape.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 14, 2008

Greenspan- He Did It His Way (Unfortunately) / Interest-Rates / Market Manipulation

By: Brady_Willett

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGreenspan did another media tour last week, this time defending his legacy in the Financial Times , Wall Street Journal , and on CNBC Television .  Unfortunately the story from Greenspan was much the same: he reiterated that the financial markets are best left to self-regulate, and that investors around the world (not the Fed) took control of long-term interest rates thus leading to the U.S. housing bubble. Astonishingly, Greenspan added, “I have no regrets on any of the Federal Reserve policies that we initiated back then…' and ‘I don't remember a case when the process by which the decision making at the Federal Reserve failed.'

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 14, 2008

Central Banking- Why Fix What Does Not Work? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTime of the Vulture - In times of expansion, it is to the hare the prizes go. Quick, risk taking, and bold, his qualities are exactly suited to the times. In periods of contraction, the tortoise is favored. Slow and conservative, quick only to retract his vulnerable head and neck, his is the wisest bet when the slow and sure is preferable to the quick and easy.

Every so often, however, there comes a time when neither the hare nor the tortoise is the victor. This is when both the bear and the bull have been vanquished, when the pastures upon which the bull once grazed are long gone and the bear's lair itself lies buried deep beneath the rubble of economic collapse.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Bank of England Applies Eggertsson Theory to Interest Rate Cut / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Mick_Phoenix

Welcome to a Weekly Report special, incorporating further discussion of last weeks Occasional Letter.

This week we look at an example of Eggertsson Theory in practise, what really worries the Fed and what is their favourite import, how expectations can be managed, why General Electric are going to struggle and I announce something a little different. A lot to cover and I am pressed for time so let's get on with it.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, April 12, 2008

Interbank Market Fails to Respond to UK Interest Rate Cut / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFollowing Thursdays UK interest rate cut to 5% from 5.25%, which followed unprecedented action by the Bank of England in providing £15 billion in liquidity to the UK banking system in recent weeks. So far the interbank market has failed to respond to these actions, which saw the 3 Month Libor rate / base rate spread expand to recent credit crunch extremes as illustrated by the below graph.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, April 11, 2008

Is there anything the US Federal Reserve WON'T do? / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2008

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThat's the question I'm asking myself here as I watch it go further and further down the "extreme activism" road.

As I've pointed out, it's not just the Fed, either. Congress and the Bush administration are stepping up their plans to intervene and support the housing and mortgage markets, too.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, April 10, 2008

UK Interest Rates to be Cut to 5% Today on Fears of Housing Recession / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Bank of England is expected to cut UK interest rates to 5% at today's MPC meeting following a slump in UK house prices that saw a 2.5% fall in March (Halifax:SA). Interest rates were last cut in February 08 which was inline with the Market Oracle forecast as of August 07 and Sept 07 for UK interest rates to fall to 5% by September 2008, this was revised lower to 4.75% in January 2008 , following the US Panic rate cut of 0.75% on 22nd Jan 08 to 3.5%, and subsequent cuts which has taken the US Fed Funds rate down to 2.25%.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 08, 2008

Did Greenspan Have to Cut the Fed Funds Interest Rate as Much? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn today's Financial Times , Greenspan is generously given yet another chance to defend his legacy. Greenspan's argument that it was not his doing that set off the U.S. housing bubble reminds me of my two perfect children. When they appeared to err, it was never their fault. Greenspan's main defense lies on the fact that long-term interest rates were falling in the early 2000s due to global factors beyond his control. To start with, let's give him this one. But even if the decline in long rates were beyond his control, did he have to cut the fed funds rate - an interest rate he did control - as much as he did and hold it at the low level as long as he did (see Chart 1)?

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 08, 2008

Interest Rates and the Keynesian Myth / Interest-Rates / US Economy

By: Gerard_Jackson

Still lurking in the Keynesian woodshed is the myth that interest is a monetary phenomenon that is artificially keeping capital scarce. Eliminate interest and presto! Capital will become superabundant. Keynes repeated this preposterous fallacy in the Paper of the British Experts , 8 April 1943, in which he asserted that "Credit expansion performs the miracle . . . of turning stone into bread".

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 08, 2008

Lessons from Japan: Prepare for 0% US Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Jim_Willie_CB

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe prospect of a US Fed 0% rate becoming a reality has been on my mind since August when the subprime made news hit. In my view, the entire mortgage bond structure would suffer massive losses in a successive of waves, beginning with subprimes, extending to primes, and concluding with commercials. How could housing distress not spread to nearby shopping malls, office complexes, and urban centers? First, USTreasurys would draw huge sums of money, reducing bond yields across the entire set of maturities. Second, the coincident event would be a painful recession. The US financial system would be unable this time to pull the US Economy out of the quicksand. Far too many vicious cycles would kick into gear, unleashing powerful feedback loops. We are seeing them in full glory now. Housing prices and foreclosures, bank write downs with sliding home collateral, US Dollar decline with a slower US Economy, household spending with rising costs, they are work to sustain more pain.

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